Has the world ever successfully predicted an earthquake in history?

Yes, Haicheng Earthquake

Haicheng Earthquake

Open Categories: Geography, Liaoning, Earthquakes, Disasters, Haicheng

Liaoning Haicheng Earthquake

On February 4, 1975, at 19:36, in the area of Haicheng and Yingkou counties, Liaoning Province, China (latitude 40 degrees and 41 minutes north, longitude 122 degrees and 50 minutes east), a strong earthquake occurred. Magnitude 7.3, depth of 16, 21 kilometers, the epicenter of the intensity of 9 degrees strong.

The earthquake occurred in the economically developed and densely populated south-central Liaodong Peninsula. In the seismic intensity of 7 degrees within the region, there are Anshan, Yingkou, Liaoyang, three larger cities, with a population of 167.8 million; and Haicheng, Yingkou, Panshan and other 11 counties, with a population of 6.67 million. The total population is 8,348,000, of which the urban population accounts for 20%, and the average population density is about 1,000 people per square kilometer. Liaoning Province is one of the industrial bases in China, and the total output value of heavy industry is at the top of the country. The iron and steel joint venture in Anshan City is known as "Steel Capital" in the country. The district has convenient transportation, dense highway and railroad networks, and is an important hub for transportation in Northeast China. There are also 1 large reservoir and 109 small and medium-sized reservoirs.

The Haicheng earthquake was the largest earthquake ever recorded in the region. The ground shone and rumbled at the time of the quake. Ninety percent of the people in the earthquake area saw the low-altitude luminous phenomenon. Near and far the color and image of the light is not the same, close to see a long white band of light, the distance is to see red, yellow, blue, white, purple flash. In addition, blue-white light was seen coming directly from the cracks in the earth, as well as pink balls of light coming out of the vents on the ground. Muffled thunder-like rattles were commonly heard around Haicheng, Yingkou and Panjin.

The epicenter of the quake covered an area of 760 square kilometers, and most of the houses and various buildings in the area were tumbled down and destroyed, railroads were partially curved, bridges were damaged, the ground was cracked, pitted, and sprinkled with sand and water, and chimneys were almost completely destroyed. The earthquake was felt in a wide range of areas, from the Nenjiang and Mudanjiang rivers in Heilongjiang Province in the north to Suqian in Jiangsu Province in the south, as far west as the town of Wuyuan in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the city of Xi'an in Shaanxi Province, and across the border to North Korea in the east, with a radius of feeling of 1,000 kilometers.

The earthquake occurred in a densely populated and industrially developed area, thus causing serious damage to ground facilities and buildings, and the phenomenon of earthquake damage was complex and varied. According to post-earthquake statistics, the earthquake caused the destruction of various buildings in the town, accounting for 12.8% of the original total area of the public **** facilities more serious damage. Among them, the destruction of nearly 30,000 meters of roads, water supply and drainage pipelines more than 160,000 meters, more than 100 million meters of power supply lines, more than 450,000 meters of communication lines, more than 400 large and small chimneys. The loss of a large number of industrial equipment and production materials; in the rural areas caused by the destruction of residential houses accounted for 27.1% of the original area, the destruction of 38 kilometers of highway, various types of bridges: more than 2,000; more than 700 water conservancy facilities, more than 800 kilometers of dykes, sandblasting buried more than 180 square kilometers of farmland, so that the means of production and equipment were also subjected to great losses.

From the whole earthquake area economic losses, urban housing *** damage of 5 million square meters, urban public **** facilities damage of 1.65 million square meters, rural housing damage of 17.4 million square meters, urban and rural transportation and water conservancy did not destroy 2,937; the total **** equivalent to RMB 810 million. Urban and industrial earthquake damage accounted for a larger proportion of the two, compared with the town accounted for 61% of the total loss, the rural areas accounted for 39%.

Prediction and prevention and earthquake relief lessons learned

1. Successful short-range forecasts were made, effectively reducing casualties.

Before the Haicheng earthquake, China's earthquake department used to make medium-term forecasts and short-term forecasts. As early as 1970, the first national earthquake work conference based on historical earthquakes, present-day seismic activity and fracture zone activity of the new characteristics of the Liaoning Province, Shenyang Yingkou area has been identified as one of the key seismic work of the national monitoring area. 1974 June, the State seismological bureau held a North China and Bohai seismic trends, proposed the northern Bohai Sea and other areas in the year 2012, there is a possibility of 5-6 magnitude earthquakes. Soon after, the State Council approved the report of the State Seismological Bureau on the seismic situation in North China and the Bohai Sea area. The State Council soon approved the State Seismological Bureau's "Report on the Seismic Situation in North China and the Bohai Sea Area", and issued medium-term earthquake forecasts for seven provinces, cities and autonomous regions. in late January 1975, the Liaoning Provincial Seismological Bureau put forward the opinion on seismic trends, which suggested that in the first half of 1975, or in January-February 1975, an earthquake of magnitude 6 or so might occur at the southern end of the Liaodong Peninsula. At the same time, the State Seismological Bureau also suggested that the southern part of Liaoning might be pregnant with a larger earthquake. at 0:30 on February 4, the Liaoning Provincial Seismological Office, on the basis of the characteristics of the small earthquakes and the increase in macro-anomalies in the junction of Yingkou and Haicheng counties on February 1-3, sent out the 14th earthquake bulletin with a pro-earthquake prediction to the whole province, suggesting that there was a larger earthquake behind the small ones, and that there was a large earthquake behind the small ones. The government also issued the 14th earthquake bulletin with a pro-earthquake forecast to the province, suggesting that there would be a large earthquake behind the small one, and gave a clearer forecast to the provincial government at 6:00 p.m. on Feb. 4. At 10:30 p.m. on Feb. 4, the provincial government sent out a telephone notification to the whole province and issued a pro-earthquake forecast.

Because of the medium-term forecast and short-range forecast made before the earthquake, the provincial government and the earthquake area cities and counties have taken a series of emergency measures to prevent earthquakes; thus greatly reducing casualties; for example, the Yingkou County government in the quake to take four emergency precautions: ① urban and rural areas to stop all meetings; ② industry stop production, store closure,: the hospital in general patients with the war car to send home, a small number of seriously ill people who think to stay in the quake tent Local treatment. Urban and rural guest houses, hostels to mobilize guests to leave; ③ urban and rural cultural and entertainment venues to stop activities; ④ organizations at all levels to take practical measures to do people away from the house, the animals away from the pen, the important agricultural machinery and equipment transferred to a safe place. The above anti-earthquake measures were well implemented, with streets and townships using radio and loudspeakers on the one hand, and sending cadres door-to-door to mobilize the masses to evacuate the dangerous arthritic areas on the other. The silent pennants were used to mobilize the people to evacuate the dangerous arthritic areas. What are you doing? The town of Dashiqiao in the Dudu district has a large number of people in the area who have been mobilized to evacuate the area. In the town of Dashiqiao, in the Dudu District, with 72,000 inhabitants, 67% of the houses collapsed during the exhibition, but only 21 people were killed and 353 were slightly injured. Again, a local garrison, before the earthquake was held with the Anshan City Spring Festival condolence delegation of military and civilian gala, attended by thousands of people, when the emergency earthquake notification, decided to gala only speech does not perform the program. As a result, the personnel just evacuated, the earthquake occurred, the auditorium collapsed, only injured a last to leave the soldiers.

In addition, due to the earthquake before the extensive publicity and education on earthquake prevention and mitigation, so that the majority of cadres and masses master the knowledge of emergency earthquake prevention, but also effectively reduce casualties and losses. Such as February 4, Dalian to Beijing, 31 passenger express, loaded with more than 1,000 passengers Mercedes-Benz in the earthquake area on the railroad. 19:36 train running to the extreme earthquake area before the Tangwangshan station, the train driver suddenly found that the front of the car; from the ground to the sky appeared to be a large area of blue-white flashes. The driver knew the knowledge of earthquake, immediately realized that this is the ground light, judging that the earthquake is coming, he calmly and slowly decelerate, in the process of decelerating the earthquake occurred. Due to the very low speed, there was an accident at the end and the train was stopped safely, ensuring the safety of all passengers.

The Haicheng earthquake occurred in a modern, industrially concentrated and densely populated area. The vast majority of houses in the area are not fortified, poor seismic performance, the earthquake occurred in the winter night, according to the habits of most people in the local countryside, the earthquake have been asleep. Under such circumstances, without prior forecasting and prevention, the casualties would have been very heavy. The casualty rates of other major earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above that were not forecasted in China, such as the Xingtai, Tonghai and Tangshan earthquakes, were 14%, 13% and 18.4%, respectively. Based on the average of the casualty rates of these three earthquakes, the casualty rate of the Haicheng earthquake was estimated to be nearly 150,000, and the death rate could be more than 50,000 people. As a result of the release of the short-term forecast, the earthquake area at all levels of government organizations to prevent the masses, so that the region's casualties *** 18,308 people, accounting for only 7 degrees of the region's total population of 0.22%, of which, 328 deaths, accounting for the number of the total population of 0.02%, 4,292 serious injuries, 12,688 minor injuries, minor and serious injuries accounted for the number of the total population of 0.2%.

The success of pre-earthquake forecasting and prevention has brought a series of other social and economic benefits. Due to the reduction of casualties, especially those of young and middle-aged people, it effectively ensured the smooth progress of earthquake relief, restoration of production and rebuilding of homes in the disaster areas. The losses caused by the large number of relief personnel dispatched by the state and the shutdown of production have been mitigated. Before the earthquake, the daily gross industrial and agricultural production in the disaster area amounted to 26 million yuan, and most of them resumed production within 10 days after the earthquake, and the whole region resumed all production within 2 months. If there had been no forecast and prevention, 3-4 billion yuan would have been lost on the basis of half a year's production. In addition, some key sectors were reinforced and treated before the earthquake to avoid possible major secondary disasters. For example, Liaoyang Senwu Reservoir is one of the large reservoirs in the province. There is no seismic defense, the quality of the project also has some problems. in January 1975, the dam was reinforced, the earthquake, the dam area rocks rolled down, the dam cracks increased, the ice appeared 90-meter-long cracks, but the entire dam is safe and sound. Another example is the Kyungmin Chemical Plant, which took emergency measures to transfer 4,950 tons of explosive products from its stockpile in late December 1974, sparing it from a possible explosion caused by the earthquake.

The successful forecasting of the Haicheng earthquake shook the world. This is a human in front of natural disasters from passive to active step of great significance, it created a human short-term earthquake forecasting success of the precedent, so that people see the prospects for earthquake forecasting is bright. It is estimated that the Haicheng earthquake prediction saved more than 100,000 people's lives and avoided billions of dollars of economic losses, for this reason alone, this prediction can be said to be a monument in the history of earthquake science. in June 1976, the United States "went to the Haicheng earthquake team" head of Prof. Reilly at the scene of the earthquake said: "China is first-rate in earthquake forecasting. Haicheng earthquake prediction is one of the world's major scientific achievements in more than a decade".

2. Effective organization of anti-earthquake disaster relief has further reduced the damage caused by the earthquake.

Just after the Haicheng earthquake, the Liaoning Provincial Government set up a provincial earthquake relief headquarters in Haicheng County overnight, with offices, medical and health care, supply of materials, rescue and maintenance, public security, seismic surveying and reporting agencies, and immediately commanded the implementation of disaster relief countermeasures program. The end of the province's disaster-stricken localities and cities, respectively, in Haicheng, Yingkou two counties set up to support disaster relief workstations, division of labor package rescue. Shenyang, Liaoning Military Region has also set up a command center in the earthquake area, guiding the local garrison to carry out earthquake relief. For example, the garrison in Haicheng County entered the disaster relief site 10-20 minutes after the earthquake. According to incomplete statistics, they **** rescued more than 2,700 people. One regiment rescued 426 people on the night of the earthquake. A reconnaissance company of a division of the Haicheng Garrison entered the county guest house 2 minutes after the earthquake, and then sent out an engineer battalion to carry out the rescue, and has played more than 40 holes, fought for 5 days and nights, dug out more than 60 people, and ****saved 18 people. Rescue generally first give the wounded a strong heart, and then lifted out, with this method to save five wounded. after February 6, the PLA began to comprehensively clean up the rubble, whenever cleaning up a place, first shout, listen to hear, take a look at. 11:00 a.m. on February 9, and finally rescued a field purchaser who had been buried for more than 110 hours, this casualty suffered from serious injuries and 3 degrees of frostbite, by the hospital for timely resuscitation out of danger.

After the earthquake, Beijing, Jilin, Hebei and other provinces and cities, as well as Liaoning Province **** dispatched 101 medical teams into the quake zone, medical personnel **** 3480 people. They were assisted by the local people and the garrison, within 2 or 3 hours after the earthquake, basically the serious and critical injuries to the countryside temporarily set up medical points or conveniently located on both sides of the highway, first aid treatment of the injured in accordance with local conditions. The task of evacuating the injured was basically completed within 12 hours after the earthquake. The provincial government made emergency arrangements for 16 hospitals above the county level in the province, 3 field hospitals of the army, and 3 hospitals temporarily opened in the disaster area to receive and treat the seriously injured. By March 19th after the earthquake, 3,464 of the 4,700 seriously injured admitted to hospitals at or above the county level had been discharged from hospitals after being basically cured. A spring patriotic hygiene campaign was also widely carried out in the post-earthquake area to stop the continuation of infectious diseases and greatly reduce the incidence of the disease.

After the earthquake, the people in the affected areas, under the leadership of the governments at all levels, carried forward the spirit of self-reliance and hard work, resumed production and rebuilt their homes relatively quickly. In the resumption of production, the national and provincial investment of 1.03 billion yuan, the earthquake area self-financing 250 million yuan. In the rebuilding of homes, after two years of efforts, rural * * * building houses 8.57 million square meters; after 16 years of efforts, urban * * * building houses 3.55 million square meters, public * * * facilities of 110,000 square meters, the national and provincial investment of 1.78 billion yuan, the affected areas of self-financing 460 million yuan.

3. To pay attention to the prevention and control of secondary disasters of the earthquake.

The earthquake due to the occurrence of the winter in the cold months, after the earthquake secondary freezing, fire serious. Before the earthquake, for many days in the south wind, the temperature rose month by month, February 2 to 3, the highest temperature 3-6 ℃, ice and snow melt; but the wind and clouds are unpredictable and changeable, after the earthquake suddenly turned northeast wind, snow, the sky, the temperature dropped dramatically, the lowest temperature up to 20 ℃ below the highest also in a 5 ℃. The dramatic change in temperature, coupled with the fact that most people live in simple earthquake shelters that are not protected from the cold, resulted in severe frostbite. In addition, the earthquake-proof shed is mostly made of flammable materials, and the winter cold heating plus cooking, lighting, etc., resulting in fires is also very serious. According to statistics, fires and frostbite *** casualties 8271 people, of which, freezing and covering death 372 people, 'frostbite 6578 people; after the earthquake *** earthquake shelter fires 3142, burned to death 341 people, burned 980 people. The number of casualties from the above secondary disasters accounted for 32% of the total casualties, a rather alarming proportion and a lesson worth remembering. In the future, while forecasting earthquakes, the prediction and prevention of secondary disasters under different conditions should be considered at the same time.

Successful prediction of the Haicheng earthquake mystery

February 3, 1975, working in the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Geophysics Li Zhiyong, the end of the Shenyang Reservoir one month after the observation, to Yingkou to visit his family. February 4 morning, Yingkou felt an earthquake, out of "the earthquake is an order" sense of responsibility, he rushed to the Yingkou City Bureau of Science and Technology and the Earthquake Office. Yingkou City Bureau of Science and Technology and Earthquake Office, to participate in the work. In the seismic station a steady stream of data reported to draw up charts, he made an important speculation at noon on February 4, in the evening of February 4, 12:00 or so may occur more than 7 magnitude of the earthquake.

Yingkou was already on high alert, and in June 1974 the State Council forwarded the CAS's 69th document, locking down several areas where earthquakes could occur, Beijing, Tianjin, Tang, Bo and Zhang, "based on the existence of earthquakes, and to be vigilant in preparation for a sudden attack of an earthquake of magnitude six or more ...... "

Since then, the Yingkou area has continued to appear before the earthquake signs, local seismologists repeatedly speculate and lock the possible occurrence of a major earthquake.In January 1975, the Revolutionary Committee of Liaoning Province issued a seismic situation: Dandong, Yingkou, Brigade, Panjin area there is the possibility of five or six magnitude earthquakes.

Starting on February 1, the needle of the seismograph at the Yingkou seismic station began to oscillate, and by February 3, small tremors intensified.In the early morning hours of February 4, the Seismic Office of the Liaoning Provincial Revolutionary Committee issued a briefing that said an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher was imminent.At 7:50 a.m. on the morning of February 4, a 4.8-magnitude quake struck. The quake connected Li Zhiyong to observations made at the reservoir over the past month and important lessons learned from the Xingtai earthquake six years earlier. "Maybe because of my introduction as being from Beijing, and my work unit and so on, they saw me as an expert." Li Zhiyong later speculated. He waved the results of this speculation and the chart in front of the three directors, elaborating on his experience during the Xingtai earthquake and his own set of inferences: "The situation is very urgent now ......"

The director, after hearing this, headed to the city, where in the afternoon there was an emergency meeting about the earthquake, this inference of Li Zhiyong was conveyed in the meeting, and through the street office and other grass-roots organizations to the public. Many people confirmed that in the afternoon of the day before the earthquake in Haicheng, residents were notified that there may be a major earthquake in the evening, and that they must be prepared for the earthquake, and that they could not turn off the lights and lock the doors when they slept, and that some places were even notified to show open-air movies, and that they were advised to stay out of their houses and sleep, and so on.

After the afternoon meeting, some people called to say that there is ground gas gushing out of the ground, Li Zhiyong and the earthquake office drove to see, on the way back, the big earthquake happened, "I saw the fireballs rising from the ground, the earth in the non-stop sandblasting and water spraying, personally experienced this scene and the descriptions of other people's feelings are completely different." Based on his experience in the Xingtai earthquake, he initially judged the earthquake magnitude to be 7.4 and provided the data to the military as a basis for rescue and relief efforts.

The Haicheng earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.3 and an intensity of more than 9 degrees at its epicenter, affected six cities and 10 counties, yet killed just over 1,300 people, or 0.016 percent of the region's population. In the aftermath of the Haicheng earthquake, the United Nations recognized the Haicheng earthquake forecast as the first, and so far the only, time that mankind has made an accurate pro-earthquake prediction of a strong earthquake (Haicheng is a county under Yingkou, now under the jurisdiction of Anshan City).

I'm from Anshan, and I was lucky enough to be born ten years later.

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