China's total import and export volume reached 11,548 billion U.S. dollars in 2004, rising to third place in the global rankings after the United States and Germany; in the first three quarters of 2005, the figure exceeded 10,000 billion U.S. dollars, and it is expected that the scale of the whole year of 2005 will be more than 1,300 billion U.S. dollars.
China's status as a major foreign trade country has been established, how to move toward trade power?
Zhou Qiren: The logic of shirt-for-airplane trade power. Zhou Qiren's recent article in the Economic Observer discusses the "economics of shirts for airplanes", which implies the historical and economic logic of China's development from a trade power to a trade power. Zhou Qiren is proud of all the "Made in China" products, and believes that these insignificant products not only lay the foundation for China's industrial advancement in the future, but also benefit the largest number of consumers and producers of human beings now; the shirt-for-airplanes exchange is in line with Comrade Xiaoping's "Theory of Steps" as no party suffers any disadvantage; the shirt-for-airplanes exchange is in line with Comrade Xiaoping's "Theory of Steps". The shirt-for-aircraft exchange is in line with Comrade Xiaoping's "Step Theory", and in the process of the shirt-for-aircraft exchange, "industrial upgrading" will be realized. Therefore, the economics of "shirts for airplanes" does not believe that the need for "Made in China" to make a big fuss, "what song is sung on what mountain" is the hero of the times, "this mountain looks like that mountain". "The next mountain looks taller" is about heroes making the times; combined, countless heroes limited by the times continue to change the actual constraints, so that the economic era of the world's industrial map has undergone a rare and dramatic change since the Industrial Revolution.
Zhang Xiaoji: A strong trade country should first focus on intellectual property protection. Development Research Center of the State Council, Minister of Foreign Economic Research Department Zhang Xiaoji in an interview that: after joining the WTO, China's foreign trade frictions occur from time to time, not only to deal with the relationship between developed countries, but also to deal with the relationship with the developing countries; from the big trade country to a trade power is a gradual process, the independent innovation is the source of the source of high value-added is the root of the original innovation, and independent innovation, Integration of innovation, the introduction of the three levels of absorption and re-innovation capacity with international cooperation, all must be carried out in an open rather than closed environment; to independent innovation, we must first focus on the protection of intellectual property rights, including the protection of the rights and interests of foreign investors, do not respect other people's independent intellectual property rights, the formation of their own sense of innovation will be difficult.
China's Foreign Trade Prospect Analysis and Policy Recommendations in 2004
2004-3-28
Executive Summary: China's foreign trade achieved rapid growth in 2003, and it is expected that the annual import and export of foreign trade in 2004 will continue to maintain a rapid growth rate, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than that of 2003, and the annual cumulative trade surplus will also be further reduced. The accumulated trade surplus for the whole year will also be further reduced. Further improve the policies to encourage exports, continue to use foreign direct investment to promote the growth of foreign trade, strengthen the control of imports of important commodities, at the same time, pay close attention to the dollar exchange rate changes on China's exports, properly deal with trade friction with the countries concerned, and to further rectify and standardize the order of foreign trade, is an important issue in China's foreign trade in 2004 needs to be considered.
Keywords: foreign trade, prospects, policy suggestions
I. Operation of China's foreign trade in 2003
(1) Rapid growth of import and export, and a substantial reduction of trade surplus
China's foreign trade import and export amounted to 851.207 billion U.S. dollars in 2003, an increase of 37.1% compared with that of 2002. Among them, exports realized 438.371 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.6%, a net increase of 112.775 billion U.S. dollars over the previous year; imports realized 412.836 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 39.9%, a net increase of 117.666 billion U.S. dollars over the previous year, imports grew faster than the rate of growth of exports by 5.3 percentage points.2003, the annual cumulative trade surplus of 25.534 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 4.892 billion U.S. dollars compared with the previous year.
(2) the main body of foreign trade business is increasingly diversified, collective private enterprises to promote the export of an important force
2003 foreign-invested enterprises exported 240.338 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 41.4%, higher than the overall export growth of 6.8 percentage points, the incremental increase in exports accounted for 62.4% of the total incremental exports. Collective private enterprise export growth is strong, exports of 60 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 83.1%, higher than the overall export growth of 48 percentage points, the incremental exports accounted for 24.1% of the total incremental exports. 2003 state-owned enterprises export difficulties did not change the situation, the annual state-owned enterprise exports 138.033 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of only 12.4% compared with the previous year, lower than the overall export growth of 22.2 percentage points, the incremental exports only accounted for 22.2% of the overall export growth. The increase in exports only accounted for 13.5% of the total increase in exports. The difference in growth rate caused changes in the pattern of export enterprises, state-owned enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises and private collective enterprises exports accounted for the proportion of all exports were 31.49%, 54.82%, 13.69%, of which the proportion of state-owned enterprises exports accounted for the proportion of all exports in 2002, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points, foreign-invested enterprises and private collective enterprises rose 2.6 and 3.7 percentage points, respectively. percentage points.
(3) Strong growth in general trade and stable growth in processing trade
In 2003, general trade and processing trade exports grew rapidly in tandem. Annual processing trade exports of 241.849 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.41%, accounting for 55.17% of the total exports, and 55.27% of the previous year's proportion of basically the same; general trade exports of 182.033 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 33.65% of the previous year's exports accounted for 41.52% of the total exports, and the previous year's 41.84% of the proportion of basically the same.
In 2003, general trade imports grew rapidly, processing trade imports grew steadily. Annual general trade imports of 187.700 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 45.36% over the previous year, accounting for 45.47% of all imports, 43.74% over the previous year, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points. Processing trade imports 162.935 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 33.32%, accounting for 39.47% of all imports, down nearly 2 percentage points from the previous year's 41.40%.?
(4) The structure of import and export commodities continued to be optimized, with rapid growth in the import and export of electromechanical and high-tech products
In 2003, the structure of imports and exports of primary products and industrial products was further optimized. Among them, the growth rate of imports of primary products was higher than that of overall imports, with imports of primary products amounting to 72.783 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%, higher than the overall increase in imports by 7.8 percentage points. The growth rate of exports of manufactured goods was higher than that of overall exports, with exports of manufactured goods amounting to 403.560 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, higher than the overall increase in exports by 1.3 percentage points.
In 2003, the import and export of electromechanical products and high-tech products continued to grow rapidly. The annual import and export of electromechanical products amounted to 452.444 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 44.71%, higher than the overall increase in imports and exports of 7.6 percentage points, accounting for 53.15% of the total amount of imports and exports, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points over the previous year. High-tech products import and export 229.622 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 52.39%, higher than the overall import and export growth of 15 percentage points, a net increase of 78.928 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for all import and export increase of 34.25%.
(E) key equipment and resource products imports increased rapidly
In recent years, China's imports of equipment, the growth rate and imported equipment accounted for the proportion of domestic investment in fixed assets have shown a rapid upward trend, imports of equipment has become an important factor in promoting China's economic structural adjustment and industrial upgrading.2003, iron ore, steel, crude oil, refined oil, natural rubber and other imports of Substantial growth, by amount, the growth rate of 75.4%, 61.1%, 55.3%, 54.3% and 66.3%. Iron ore, oil and steel and other energy, raw materials and other products imports increased significantly, to a large extent, to make up for the lack of China's natural mineral resources, in order to promote sustained and rapid growth of the national economy to provide a reliable material security.
(F) Comprehensive growth in exports to major trading partners, rapid growth in exports to emerging markets
From the perspective of the major trading regions, exports to traditional and emerging markets have achieved rapid growth, exports to Europe, Africa and Latin America grew faster than the overall rate of growth in exports, of which the fastest rate of growth in exports to Europe, an increase of 51.5% year-on-year. In terms of imports, imports from Asia, Latin America and Africa grew faster than the overall import growth rate, while imports from North America grew at the slowest rate, up 23.9 percent year-on-year, 16 percentage points below the overall import growth rate (see Table 1).?
Table 1 China's Imports and Exports to Various Regions in 2003 (in billion dollars)
Source.
From the point of view of major trading partners, China's trade with major trading partners continued to grow in 2003. in 2003, mainland China's exports to markets such as the Russian Federation, the European Union and Taiwan, China grew faster than the overall rate of growth, with exports to the Russian Federation growing at the fastest pace, by 71.4% year-on-year, while exports to Japan continued to grow sluggishly. Mainland China's trade surplus with the United States, the European Union, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China and Canada continued to widen, while its trade deficit with Japan, ASEAN, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan continued to widen, and that with the Russian Federation and Australia further declined.In 2003, Japan remained China's largest trading partner and largest source of imports, and the United States continued to be China's second largest trading partner and largest export market ( See Table 2).?
Table 2 Top ten trading partners of China's foreign trade in 2003 (in billion dollars)
Source.
(VII) Faster export growth in the western region, imbalance between eastern and western exports still exists
On the whole, exports from the western region grew at a faster rate in 2003, but the coastal region still held an absolutely dominant position in foreign trade. the total import and export volume of the ten coastal provinces (municipalities) accounted for 84.37% of the country's total import and export volume in 2003, of which exports accounted for 87.97% of the country's export volume. In 2003, the total import and export amount of the ten coastal provinces (cities) accounted for 84.37% of the total import and export amount of the country, of which, export accounted for 87.97% of the export amount of the country, which was basically the same as that of 2002, and import accounted for 80.56% of the import amount of the country. On the other hand, the coastal areas and inland areas within each region there is also an imbalance, in the coastal areas, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang exports grew faster, much higher than the overall export growth rate, while Liaoning, Fujian, Hainan and Tianjin and other areas of slower growth in exports, lower than the overall export growth rate of more than 10 percentage points. In the central and western provinces (cities and regions), Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Tibet and Chongqing and other areas of export growth rate is fast, while Sichuan, Anhui, Hubei, Shaanxi and Yunnan and other places of export growth rate is slower.
Two, China's foreign trade outlook for 2004
(1) World economic recovery accelerated pace, conducive to the expansion of exports
In 2004, the world's economic and trade situation in general will be further improved. Driven by many favorable factors such as the accelerated recovery of the U.S. economy, the warming up of world investment and the stabilization of oil prices in the international market, the growth rate of the world economy will be further improved. On the basis of the recovery of the world economy, world trade will also continue to pick up, and the annual growth rate of global trade in goods will also be further improved. According to the World Bank's forecast, the world economy will grow by 3.2 per cent in 2004, an increase of 1 percentage point over 2003; the volume of world trade will grow by 8.1 per cent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over 2003. The accelerated growth of the international economy and the growth of the volume of world trade will be conducive to the expansion of China's exports.?
(2) The domestic economy will continue to maintain rapid growth, further driving the growth of foreign trade
Currently, China's economy is in the expansion stage of a new round of economic cycle. 2004, a number of favorable factors will promote the sustained, rapid and stable development of the economy and society. First of all, the reform objectives set by the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will push the reform of the economic system to a deeper level, and the environment for economic development will continue to improve. Secondly, in terms of macro-policy, in order to accelerate the economic restructuring and solve the outstanding problems in economic development, the State will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy in 2004, which provides an effective policy basis for stable and sustainable economic development. Finally, with the rapid development of the private economy, the scale of domestic demand will be expanded, which will provide a constant impetus for domestic economic growth. Although China's economic development is still constrained by a number of unfavorable factors, on the whole, China's economy will still maintain rapid and healthy development in 2004. The faster growth of the domestic economy not only provides sufficient sources for the expansion of exports, but also pulls up the growth rate of imports, and it is expected that the demand for imports of advanced technological equipment, resources and raw materials commodities will continue to increase in 2004.
(3) Improvement of investment and trade environment will, to a certain extent, promote the development of foreign trade
First of all, 2004 is the key year for the fulfillment of the WTO accession agreement, the first year for the in-depth implementation of the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee, and the year in which the Administrative License Law is put into practice, China's investment environment will be further improved, and multinational corporations will continue to enter China, and to drive China's exports.?
Secondly, in accordance with China's WTO accession commitments, the Ministry of Commerce has once again lowered the threshold for foreign trade. Since September 1, 2003, apply for foreign trade circulation qualification of domestic enterprises registered capital requirements, from the original not less than 5 million yuan to 1 million yuan, and cancel the original time of establishment of more than one year requirements; apply for import and export qualification of the registered capital of production enterprises, from the original 1 million yuan to 500,000 yuan. The authority to approve registration has also been decentralized to the local level. This will further expand the scope of the main body of foreign trade, stimulate the vitality of private enterprises import and export, and promote rapid growth in foreign trade.
Finally, starting from 2004, part of the China-ASEAN FTA and the Mainland/Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) have been implemented, and some important commodities have been subject to zero tariffs, which will have a positive impact on expanding exports while increasing imports of some commodities.?
In addition, the further deepening of the reform of the foreign trade system will promote the development of foreign trade. in October 2003, the State Council decided to deepen the reform of the foreign trade system in the following five areas: First, the establishment of a convenient and fair mechanism for the operation of foreign trade; secondly, the establishment of a positive and stable mechanism for the promotion of foreign trade; thirdly, the establishment of a fast and efficient mechanism for monitoring and responding to foreign trade; fourthly, the establishment of a standardized and transparent mechanism for the management of foreign trade; fifthly, the establishment of a sound mechanism for the management of foreign trade. Fourth, establish a standardized and transparent foreign trade management mechanism; and fifth, establish a well-coordinated and effective foreign trade intermediary service system. These reforms will further improve China's foreign trade environment and promote the development of foreign trade.
(4) Lower import tariffs and further elimination of non-tariff measures will increase imports
In 2004, China will continue to fulfill its WTO accession commitments, and on the basis of 2003, it will further reduce tariffs, abolish non-tariff measures for a number of commodities, and increase the import quotas for some commodities. In 2004, China's total tariff level will be reduced from 11% in 2003 to 10.4%, and the tariff rates of thousands of tariff lines will be lowered to varying degrees, among which, information technology (IT) products will see the largest reduction, with the total tariff level being lowered by as much as 71% from 1.5% in 2003 to 0.43%, and among China's 256 tariff lines that implement the agreed tariff rate for IT products, there will be 232 tariff lines that will be subject to zero tariff. 2004 will see a reduction of 80% of China's tariffs, and a reduction of 80% of China's non-tariff measures on goods. In 2004, while the total tariff level will be reduced, China will abolish non-tariff measures on more than 80 tariff lines of imported goods. In addition, according to the WTO accession commitments, the import quota for goods subject to import quota management will be raised on top of the 2003 level, e.g. the import quota for goods subject to import quota management will be raised by 15% on top of the 2003 level. The reduction of the overall level of domestic import tariffs as well as the elimination of non-tariff barriers to some commodities and the increase in quotas will, to a certain extent, drive the increase in imports.
(E) the adjustment of export tax rebate policy will affect the expansion of the scale of exports
January 1, 2004 onwards, China's average export tax rebate rate will drop 3%. It is estimated that the average export tax rebate rate for every 1 percentage point down, the export growth rate will fall by 4.9 percentage points. The reduction of the export tax rebate rate will lead to a decline in export growth rate, the trade surplus will also fall in response. It is estimated that the inhibitory effect of this export tax rebate rate reduction on China's exports may be visible in the second half of 2004. On the other hand, the decline in the export tax rebate rate will, to a certain extent, dampen the confidence of foreign direct investment, and the effect of foreign direct investment to drive the growth of exports will weaken. This is because, due to the current foreign investment in the field of most of the manufacturing industry, its products are used in large quantities for export, reduce the export tax rebate rate, increase the cost of products, some multinational corporations are likely to slow down the pace of the transfer of industries to China.?
(F) international trade protectionism on China's exports will be further constraints
Currently, China has become the world's anti-dumping, technical trade measures victimized by the most serious countries. since 2003, a number of countries, special security legislation and investigations of the competing start, so that the foreign trade protectionism of China's trade in commodities involved in the amount of more and more, involved in the establishment of restrictions on the country is more and more countries. In particular, the RMB exchange rate in the short term to maintain stability, will be some countries of trade retaliation. Therefore, in 2004, China's products encountered anti-dumping investigations and technical barriers to trade will show an increasing trend, to the export enterprises to bring the cost and risk of loss will continue to increase.
Combined with the above factors, taking into account the base factor, it is expected that in 2004 the annual foreign trade imports and exports will continue to maintain rapid growth, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than in 2003, the annual cumulative trade surplus will further reduce.
Three policy recommendations
(A) further improve the policies to encourage exports
Take full advantage of the central government to make good use of the policy of subsidizing the interest rate on bank loans incurred by enterprises due to default on tax refunds, to alleviate the contradiction of the enterprise's financial constraints. Give full play to the role of export credit insurance to support the development of funds to promote export growth. Implementing the policy of bonded supervision of deep-processing carry-over of processing trade and encouraging the development of general trade. Continue to increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises to develop international markets. While improving the policy of encouraging exports, the export of resource products should be appropriately regulated to optimize the structure of export commodities.
(2) Continue to utilize foreign direct investment to promote the growth of foreign trade
Further improve the domestic investment environment, undertake international industrial transfer, and continue to utilize foreign direct investment to promote the growth of foreign trade. While maintaining a certain scale of foreign investment, we should pay attention to improving the quality of foreign investment, increasing the value-added rate of processed export products and expanding domestic procurement of related products. It will strengthen the guidance on the structure and investment direction of foreign investment and further improve the investment environment in terms of relevant laws and regulations, management system, market opening and infrastructure, etc.?
(3) Strengthening the regulation of imports of important commodities
According to the development of the national economy and the needs of the domestic market, the appropriate expansion of imports of some of the important raw materials, advanced technology and equipment that the domestic market has a need for, and at the same time will not cause an impact on the domestic economy, to take full advantage of the resources of the international market, and to meet the needs of the development of the national economy. Preliminary analysis, in 2004, China's import demand for crude oil, cotton, steel, natural rubber and other important raw materials will further increase. To make full use of the domestic and international markets, two kinds of resources, according to the requirements of the development of the national economy, the appropriate expansion of imports of some of the domestic market in urgent need, and will not have an impact on the domestic industry of important raw materials, advanced technology and equipment. In the process of organizing imports, to grasp the timing and rhythm, to avoid centralized imports, raising international market prices and increase the cost of imports.
(D) pay close attention to the dollar exchange rate changes on China's exports
In 2003, the depreciation of the dollar so that China's terms of trade has been further improved to a certain extent, expanding China's foreign trade exports. But the recent U.S. economy has shown clear signs of improvement, from the economic strength, the dollar lacks the economic basis for continued decline. At the same time, the dollar will continue to depreciate by the euro zone countries and Japan's strong resistance. Therefore, the dollar further decline is unlikely. If the dollar trend back up, will inevitably make the price advantage of our exports weakened, so that the growth of China's foreign trade has a certain impact. Therefore, we must pay great attention to the trend of the dollar exchange rate, and take practical countermeasures.
(E) to further rectify and standardize the order of foreign trade
With the accelerated liberalization of foreign trade operations, more and more enterprises into the field of foreign trade operations. The diversification of the main body of foreign trade operations to promote the growth of the total volume of imports and exports has a very important role. However, due to China's various regions, industries, production cost differences, corporate behavior is not standardized, the export market is relatively centralized and other reasons, the export business order is chaotic, the phenomenon of price cutting and competing for sales occurs from time to time. The export volume increase and price drop make China's foreign trade economic efficiency is damaged. Effective measures should be taken as soon as possible to rectify and standardize the order of foreign trade operations.
(F) properly deal with trade friction with the countries concerned
In response to the rise of global trade protectionism, anti-dumping investigations against China and the implementation of technical trade measures to increase the situation, follow the rules of the WTO, the rational use of the relevant mechanisms to properly resolve trade friction, and actively expand exports. We will make full use of our influence in the global economy, especially in developing and neighboring countries, to further promote the negotiation process of global trade liberalization. Increase the efforts of foreign economic and trade negotiations, and actively carry out public relations work to create a favorable environment for enterprises to export. Make full use of WTO rules to cope with the practices of relevant countries in anti-dumping, countervailing and industry safeguards. Improve the specific practices and strategies of China's foreign trade, combine the economic development of importing countries with China's export strategy, and encourage domestic enterprises to invest in foreign factories and set up distribution networks overseas.