1, the domestic macroeconomic environment has undergone subtle changes, the domestic economy is dominated by the internal cycle. The recent gradual formation of a new pattern of domestic cycle-based, international and domestic mutual promotion of the development of the double cycle. The pharmaceutical industry basically relies on domestic consumption, more in line with the logic of the inner circle industry.
2, the global innovative drug boom is continuing to rise. 2019 global innovative drug sales TOP200 threshold from the original 690 million dollars to 760 million dollars, Top100 from 1.26 billion dollars to 1.49 billion dollars, and the domestic sales of 1 billion in 2011 is a heavyweight product, now less than 2-3 billion is difficult to become a heavyweight varieties. .
3, the epidemic is not only a short-term promotion of pharmaceutical protection, but also a far-reaching impact on the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry. The importance of white angels has been strengthened, in favor of easing the contradiction between doctors and patients, and promote the development of the medical industry; the epidemic is good for the future development of the vaccine industry, the importance of the medical industry to recognize more fully.
Vaccines as the most powerful weapon in human disease prevention (this new crown epidemic has been fully verified), belonging to the more stable immediate needs, the domestic vaccine industry after more than a decade of R & D accumulation, many heavy vaccine varieties are about to enter the realization of the period, the industry is about to enter the innovative vaccine volume era.
The Vaccine Management Act was introduced, laying a good foundation for the rapid development of the industry.
The first domestic Vaccine Management Law was formally introduced in 2019, and the whole process of research and development, production, circulation, use, insurance and disclosure of information has been implemented in the attitude of strong supervision and strict treatment, we believe that the probability of the industry's recurrence of major safety incidents in the future will be significantly reduced, which will help to enhance the public's confidence in the domestic vaccine.
While strict control, the Vaccine Management Law also explicitly
encourages the economization and scaling of vaccine production, the future industry threshold will be the development trend, industry concentration is expected to further improve, domestic quality leading enterprises will become the backbone of the development of the domestic vaccine industry.
1) Heavyweight varieties of demand continues to be strong: globally, the international best-selling varieties such as 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, HPV vaccine, etc. in the domestic rapid volume, with the residents of the disposable income and health awareness to enhance the demand for innovative vaccines continues to be strong;
2) Domestic product side: the industry in the next quite a while, is still by the heavyweight product driven. Over the past decade or so, with year-on-year growth in R&D investment, a series of innovative vaccines have been approved and marketed one after another: for example, DTaP-Hib quadruple vaccine (Kangtai Biologicals), which was marketed in 2013; AC-Hib triple vaccine (Zhifei Biologicals), approved and marketed in 2014; tetravalent influenza (Hualan Biologicals), which was approved and marketed in 2018; and 13-valent pneumonia (Watson Biologicals) and 2-valent HPV (Wantai Bio), and nasal spray influenza (Changchun Hi-Tech) approved in 2020, etc. It is expected that the domestic vaccine industry boom will continue to improve in the next 2-3 years as other domestic key varieties, such as the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, HPV vaccine, and human diploid rabies vaccine, etc., are listed one after another.
The global medical device consumer market is more mature, the growth rate is relatively flat, but the overall is still in a steady upward trend, the global medical device market size in 2019 is 446.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 5% year-on-year, according to Frost & Sullivan forecasts, the market size in 2024 will exceed 580 billion U.S. dollars. China's medical device industry is relatively in a rapid development stage, and the growth rate has remained around 20% in recent years. In 2019, China's medical device market size will be 623.5 billion yuan, an increase of 18% year-on-year, and the market size will reach more than 1,200 billion yuan in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan's forecast.
Soochow medicine team view: China as a populous country, the proportion of aging population continues to increase, will continue to expand the potential consumer demand for medical devices, in addition, with the improvement of China's overall economic level and the continued improvement of the concept of medical consumption of the residents, the residents of the consumer demand for medical devices will continue to be released
The global medical device industry, the top five areas of in vitro diagnostics, Cardiovascular, medical imaging, orthopedics and ophthalmology occupy 13%, 12%, 10%, 9% and 7% respectively, each of which has given birth to a number of high-quality growth stocks.
China's medical device industry, medical equipment accounted for more than 50% of the market share, of which medical equipment accounted for 39%, in addition to consumables in vitro diagnostics, vascular interventions, orthopedics, ophthalmology, stomatology, and other medical consumables field also occupy a certain market share. With the improvement of China's medical consumption level, each segment is expected to give birth to a number of high-quality growth companies.
In 2019, China's medical equipment market size of 233.6 billion yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year, according to Frost & Sullivan expects the market size will reach 445.8 billion yuan in 2024, the average compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2019 to 2024.
For a long time, the domestic medium and high-end medical equipment is occupied by foreign capital, and domestic enterprises are still in the catch-up stage due to their late start. According to industry statistics, commonly used medical imaging equipment such as color ultrasound, CT, MR, etc. for a long time by GE, Philips and Siemens and other foreign giants to occupy more than 70% of the market share, endoscopes, especially flexible endoscopes, domestic market share is less than 10%, the long-term substitution of a wide space
Suggested focus on the individual stocks: Contax Biologicals, Zhifei Biologicals, Hualan Biologicals, Changchun High-tech;
Suggested focus: Watson Bio, Wantai Bio.