In the middle of last year, the valuation of GanLiPharma was still more than 70 times, from the past few years of earnings growth and the orthopedic track, GanLiPharma is considered a growth stock with great potential.
So far, Calitai's valuation is back to more than 20 times, which should be considered a normal valuation. It's shares were trading at about this price point before it kicked off early last year, and in 2019, the company has already taken a goodwill charge. We thought that the shortcomings were out, and we could get in, but I didn't realize that this year, another 385 million was accrued, and for a company with a net profit of only about 300 million, more than 300 million was deducted, which is equal to not making money.
So, growth stocks are so uncertain. Peter Lynch suggested that investing in growth stocks, it is best to choose five to six stocks, diversified investment, as long as a real growth, the rest of the several all lose to zero, you still make money in the end.
I'm not going to analyze the fundamentals of KellyTech, which you can see at a glance. I'll talk about its strengths and weaknesses, it's a business with very strong strengths and weaknesses.
The track in which Kellettai is located is excellent. Medical device industry, the previous domestic market has been occupied by large foreign medical device companies, our country these industries are in their infancy, China's annual incremental medical devices to maintain more than 15%.
The main logic of our medical device industry, is to replace imported products. Domestic medical devices have price and channel advantages.
In addition, Kellett's vertebroplasty minimally invasive is also a very good business model. These two businesses accounted for 17% and 42% respectively, both gross margins are above 80%, more than some white wine companies.
From the perspective of growth, Kellettai is really a good company in the industry.
However, Kellettai from 2014, opened the acquisition mode, generated a lot of goodwill.
The so-called goodwill, assuming that an orthopedic hospital, the market valuation of 10 million, in the actual acquisition process, the company out of 12 million to acquire this hospital, then this extra 2 million is goodwill.
Goodwill can only be accrued in the profits, excellent companies, such as Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, annual acquisitions every year, very planned. But small companies, due to funding and planning and other reasons, often in the company's downturn, a one-time accrual. This leads to the company's share price miserable on the miserable.
The company's downturn, the stock price tends to fall, this time and then a big accrual, can run the funds will run, the stock price will be more miserable.
Kellettai performance forecast, expected last year's loss of 180 million to 100 million, we counted by the lowest, the accrual of 385 million, last year, the first three quarters of profit of 190 million, indicating that the fourth quarter there are 20 million to 100 million in profit, the annual profit there is more than 200 million .
At the same time, the collection of procurement is also a great impact on Kellettai. Many companies are not too much impact by the collection, but everyone is affected by the collection of the biggest emotional impact, as long as the product in the collection, often do not take into account the actual impact of a blanket kill.
Reference can be made to last year's letter Litai affected by the collection, the stock price once from more than 30 yuan fell below 18 yuan, a short period of time and stabilized more than 30 yuan.
High Tide Capital a **** hold 2.44% of the shares of Kellettai, according to the market value of 15 billion when entering, the total **** only bought nearly 400 million dollars. For such a large volume of investment companies, it is nothing. High Tide made more than 15 billion dollars last year just on Ningde Times and Longyi.
Besides, Gao Tail's investment never looks at short-term returns. When Zhang Lei invested in Jingdong, it was almost out of operation, and the investment of more than $200 million at the beginning has turned into a market capitalization of more than $13 billion after so many years.
If Kellett can not, I think it is too early. Investing requires reverse thinking, while not being confused by what's in front of you.
When a lion hunts, there are a lot of flies and mosquitoes harassing it, and it never has eyes for the prey.
I was very lucky to follow this ticket. In fact, it is now in the value of the return stage, a fall, wash a more healthy. I'm not sure if it's a good idea, but I think it's a good idea to keep an eye on it.
It is the god of the stock market that has to back down in front of the momentum, and remember that it is the hero who makes the momentum, not the hero who makes the momentum.
Kellett main business belongs to the orthopedic industry bone column segment, the core business vertebroplasty minimally invasive surgery. The main reason is the decline in orthopedic profits, previously sold tens of thousands of dollars of products, and now can only sell a few hundred dollars, the stock price does not fall is strange