April 2, U.S. time, Tesla (NASDAQ:?TSLA) announced the first quarter of this year's production and delivery data: production of 102,700 units, delivery of 88,400 units, compared with the same period a year ago, 63,000 units of growth of 40%, and higher than analysts generally expected to 70,000 units of the level of the.?
On the news, the company's shares were trading at $535 each, up 17.72 percent in after-hours trading on the Nasdaq exchange that day.?
The record production capacity in the first quarter was largely due to Tesla's Shanghai Superfactory, which officially went into production at the end of 2019. Tesla currently has two complete vehicle assembly plants in Fremont, U.S., and Shanghai, China, with the Fremont plant producing the most, with more than 1,000 units per day, a figure comparable to the Shanghai plant's initial weekly output.
Tesla did not disclose the production and delivery situation of each of the two factories in the first quarter to Travel One Guest. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, Tesla delivered about 7,500 units in China in the first two months of 2020.
But the question is, with the largest Fremont factory officially shutting down on March 24, and the resumption time unknown, Tesla's second-quarter and even full-year delivery figures are bound to be affected.?
Wall Street analysts have lowered Tesla's full-year delivery expectations. For example, Citibank analyst Itay?Michaeli expects Tesla to deliver about 434,000 electric cars this year, down from the previously estimated 517,000, and has lowered his price target for Tesla stock from $312 to $246.?
CEO Elon?Musk had set a goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles for the full year of 2020, which is doubtful Tesla will be able to achieve due to the globally spreading epidemic.?
Record Q1, unsustainable Q2?
On April 3, Tesla released its first-quarter production and delivery figures: 12,200 Model?S/X and 76,200 Model?3/Y were delivered, with the former's deliveries flat compared to the same period last year, and the latter up 49.7 percent, the main driver of Tesla's delivery growth.?
Unlike other mainstream car companies that release production and sales snapshots on a monthly basis, Tesla discloses production and deliveries on a quarterly basis, usually within 1 day-4 days after the end of the quarter. And revenue and profit will be announced in subsequent quarterly reports. Tesla is expected to release its first-quarter earnings later this month or in early May.?
Tesla argues that the delivery figure is still relatively conservative because "a vehicle is only considered delivered if it is put in the hands of a customer and a signed series of documented contracts are completed, and the actual number of deliveries could be 0.5 percent or more higher than that." ?
The first quarter is the traditional slow season for auto companies. Even Tesla's record production of 102,700 units in the first quarter of this year was still 2 percent below last year's fourth-quarter output of 104,900 units.
The Chinese factory was credited with deliveries in the first quarter, with about 7,500 units delivered in China in the first two months of 2020.In January, Tesla registered 3,563 new cars in China; in February, data from the Monthly Power Battery Database showed that Tesla's Shanghai factory's output in February was 3,898, accounting for more than 30% of the country's 119,000 new-energy vehicle production, making it the top of China's new energy vehicle production list. No referenceable March data has yet come out...?
Song Gang, manufacturing director of Tesla's Shanghai factory, said at the delivery ceremony of the domestically produced Model?3 on Dec. 30, 2019, that the current output of the Shanghai factory can reach 28 units of production per hour, with a daily start time of 10 hours, and a weekly output of more than 1,000 units, which is expected to reach 3,000 units/week in the future, "Now the factory is almost Every day is a situation of overtime work in order to meet the strong demand for orders." ?
But with the Fremont factory officially shutting down on March 24, Tesla's second-quarter and full-year delivery numbers are bound to suffer. The Fremont plant is Tesla's largest factory, with a capacity of more than 1,000 units per day.?
At least three Tesla employees have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus, including two California office workers and a Nevada factory employee, according to Travel One Guest.?
For consumers, the factory shutdown means delayed deliveries. Information on Tesla's U.S. website shows that delivery times are now expected to be 8 weeks-12 weeks from now for pre-orders of several on-sale models.?
Tesla's shutdown was reluctant.On March 19, after several rounds of negotiations with county, state and federal governments, Tesla announced it was shutting down on March 24 -- a few days later than Detroit-based competitors generally do. Even with the shutdown, Tesla saw it as an opportunity to "sharpen the knife" and revamp its production line to boost Model Y output.
After all, CEO Musk has called for deliveries this year to grow by more than 36 percent over last year's figure, with a target of 500,000 deliveries for the year. One day of production line downtime is one day away from the smaller goal.?
Numerous analysts have lowered their expectations for Tesla's 2020 deliveries in light of the epidemic. Itai Mikeli expects production to begin a gradual recovery in the third quarter, with a full recovery in the fourth quarter. Financial levels correspond to production levels, with first- and second-quarter earnings reporting a loss, returning to slightly above break-even in the third quarter, and returning to profitability in the fourth quarter.?
Tesla is struggling to overcome the financial impact of the shutdown. A few weeks ago, the company raised $2.31 billion in funding through a new stock offering, providing a cushion against potential operating losses. Tesla said it also has access to about $3 billion in working capital, plus financing available for its Shanghai factory, and held $6.3 billion in cash on hand at the end of last December.?
Tesla is starting to consider switching to production of much-needed medical equipment such as ventilators inside its car factories.On March 22, Musk tweeted that there had been lengthy discussions with medical device company Medtronic about ventilator production. But there has been no substantial progress yet.
Chinese factories are the only ones left, and the "cutbacks" are hurting the brand?
After the closure of the U.S. factory, the only vehicle assembly plant left in operation is the Shanghai Superfactory, which currently produces the Model?3. The Shanghai Lingang Tesla SuperWorks project (Phase I) will have an annual capacity of 150,000 all-electric vehicles when completed, with production models including the Model?3 and Model?Y. Phase II is under construction.
Information on Tesla's Chinese website shows that reservations for the Model?3 standard range upgrade are now expected to be delivered in the second quarter of this year, while the dual-motor, all-wheel-drive, long-range version and the Performance high-performance version are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of this year.
Tesla's Shanghai SuperWorks officially resumed production on Feb. 10, among the earliest of the automotive factories. However, the supply chain management could not keep up with the resumption of production, leading to the scandal of the "reduced equipment door," which has led to not only consumer complaints, but also an interview with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).
At the end of February, a domestic Tesla owner found that the configuration of the Chinese version of the Model?3 vehicle he purchased did not match the environmental list that came with it, and the list stated that it was a HW3.0 chip, but the actual use of the old HW2.5 chip.
On March 3, Tesla publicly apologized, saying that the reduction was a last resort due to supply chain constraints and that it was willing to provide owners with a free replacement of the HW3.0 chip.
On March 10, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a notice on its website, saying that it had talked to Tesla and asked it to rectify the problem immediately in accordance with the relevant provisions of "Measures for the Administration of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Product Entry," and to ensure the consistency and safety of product quality. consistency and product quality and safety.
It's true that the new crown outbreak is an unprecedented challenge for all automotive companies. An OEM's purchasing department mid-level told travel a guest, the previous supply chain management problems are regional, such as due to weather causes can not be produced or logistics shutdown, the enterprise with a week to check, identify, pay attention to the risk is enough, but "have never encountered a problem as complex as this epidemic, risk management from the end of January to do so now, from the country to the world. ."
"Cutbackgate" did affect the confidence of some consumers. "I don't think Tesla understands the Chinese market", said Ms. Tesla Beijing car owner to travel a guest, "Chinese people have been spoiled by the traditional 4S stores, before everyone thinks Tesla is a high-tech toy and will tolerate it, now the price of 300,000 yuan has touched a lot of people who don't understand Tesla's ordinary car owners, if Tesla stays like this, there will definitely be catastrophic problems in the future."
Tesla, which regards the Chinese market as an important growth pole, knows it wants to change. on April 2, Tesla set up the China Car Alumni Club "to gather more peers who recognize Tesla's philosophy, *** with practicing and advocating Tesla's philosophy."?
Official information shows that certified club leaders enjoy exclusive communication channels, and can regularly communicate with Tesla China and the world both online and offline officially, as well as enjoying rights and benefits such as factory visits and new product launches.
"Today's Tesla is the General Motors of two decades ago, and there is a lot of room for improvement in the localization rate." Alexious?Lee, head of China strategy research at investment bank Jefferies, told Travel One Guest that any foreign brand that wants to develop rapidly in the Chinese market must improve the localization rate of the industrial chain as well as local service capabilities, including service timeliness and parts timeliness." ?
Song Gang, manufacturing director of Tesla's Shanghai factory, said the current localization rate of parts in the Shanghai factory is about 30 percent, with plans to raise it to 70-80 percent by July 2020. (责编/杨佩谦)
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