As the third largest economic power and the second largest exporter in the world, Germany's per capita GDP exceeds 27,000 euros. Germany's agricultural output value is less than 1%, and the service industry accounts for nearly 2/3. It is a service-oriented society with highly developed industrial structure, with machinery manufacturing, automobile, electronics and chemical industry as the leading industries. Its national economy is heavily dependent on exports, which account for nearly 65,438+00% of the world's total exports. About 70% of its trade is concentrated in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan, with a long-term balance of payments surplus, low inflation rate and unemployment rate of around 9%.
However, Germany's economic development was not smooth sailing. It experienced a golden period of recovery and rapid development from1late 1950s (7.9%) to1late 1960s (4.6%), and from11970s (2.94%) to 1960.
Growth or equity?
1On May 8, 945, Nazi Germany was defeated and surrendered, ruled by the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union, and then split into East and West Germany. At this time, the people's livelihood in Germany was depressed, production was stagnant, and the economy could not meet the normal needs of the people. This is a completely deficient and controlled economy. Marked by the currency reform in western occupied areas on June 2 1948+0, Germany made full use of the competitive atmosphere between East and West caused by the Cold War. With the help of Marshall Plan, Germany overcame the industrial and regional structural fracture caused by the division of Germany and Germany with high-quality human capital, and resumed the operation and development of the national economy in a short time, reaching and exceeding the pre-war level.
From1950s to 1966 and 1967, the average annual GDP growth rate in Germany reached nearly 8%, private consumption was active, investment in fixed assets such as machinery and equipment was strong, exports grew rapidly, and almost full employment (unemployment rate dropped to 0.7%) entered the famous "economic miracle" era. This is mainly due to the demand of global economic recovery and the external demand marked by Korean War orders to stimulate German exports.
At this time, advocating market forces and free competition, opposing monopoly and paying attention to social justice and balance have become the mainstream thoughts of economic development and influenced the direction of government administration. It is no exaggeration to say that the leading economic slogan of the governments of Adenauer and Ehud, which belonged to the right-wing CDU/CSU in the early postwar period, was "growth, growth or growth".
During the period of 1966- 1967, Germany experienced the first overproduction crisis after the war, and the national economy experienced a rare negative growth of 0.7%. The collapse of the government led by Erhard, the "father of economic miracle", gave way to the grand coalition government of kurt kiesinger, which was ruled by the left, the middle and the right, which marked the post-war economic recovery and has made great strides so far. Since then, the German economy has entered a growth stage that needs to emphasize macro-balance and overall coordination. How to prevent the economic recession and the cyclical ups and downs and frequent fluctuations of the macro-economy has become a topic of general concern, and relevant policies to adjust the economic cycle and enterprise conditions have been put on the agenda.
The thought of economic policy has also changed dramatically, and a Keynesian-led government's overall adjustment policy of using fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic operation has emerged, which is rare in Germany's post-war history. The representative is karl schiller, then Minister of Economy. The German-style social market economy model with the theme of neo-liberalism has added new elements of Keynesianism controlled by the government, and the government's pursuit of macroeconomic goals has also shifted from growth to stability and balance.
At the same time, the pressure of mark appreciation has become a hot topic. Because the public, especially the industrial and commercial circles, were worried that the appreciation of the mark would harm German exports, josef strauss, the finance minister in Kissinger's cabinet who opposed the appreciation, overwhelmed the opinions of Schiller, the economic minister, and the central bank, and made a decision not to appreciate the mark. This move has brought great pressure to the Coalition government at home and abroad. Soon, with the government of 1969 stepping down, the federal government made a decision to comply with the appreciation.
With the emergence of the wealth effect of economic growth, the enlightenment of social market economy theory, the Rhine model's emphasis on social security, and the competitive pressure of the Cold War between East and West, the call for social justice and expansion of social welfare benefits is getting louder and louder. Brandt, the left-wing Social Democratic Party, came to power in 1969, and Schmidt's government came to power in 1974. The left wing led the government and introduced economic policies such as expanding government expenditure, ensuring social justice and strengthening welfare security. The Bismarck social insurance system, in which employers and employees share contributions equally, has not only been restored, but also been expanded unprecedentedly. A comprehensive social welfare system with compulsory social insurance (including pension, medical care, industrial injury insurance, unemployment insurance, etc.). ) as the main body, including social relief and social allowance, gradually formed, and Germany became a social welfare country. However, the increasingly rigid characteristics of high welfare countries have challenged their financial sustainability and laid a foundation for the future drag on the overall economic development.
Dealing with stagflation
In the1970s, the German economy suffered strong external shocks, especially the weak US dollar, the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system and two oil crises. The German economy was forced to bid farewell to the era of high growth and close to full employment, and entered a period of "stagflation" of economic stagnation, unemployment and high inflation.
The German government has liberalized the control of the exchange rate of the mark and implemented free floating. The inflow of a large amount of hot money made the mark appreciate, and the inflationary pressure was highlighted. In the negotiation of labor and capital compensation, workers who have strengthened their bargaining position demand higher wages, which leads to inflation; The inflation rate jumped from/kloc-0 to 2. 1% in 1969 to 7% in 1974. The appreciation of the mark and high oil prices have led to a decline in orders in many industries, and many industries are underemployed. In addition, the "rationalization process" of 197 1- 1973 has accelerated technological progress, resulting in an increase in unemployment rate, reaching nearly 1 10,000, and a decrease in economic growth rate (only 0. 1%). Germany fell into World War II.
In response to inflation, the Brandt government and the central bank introduced measures to reduce government expenditure, such as canceling tax incentives, increasing fuel tax and increasing discount rate, but to no avail. Schmidt's government changed its course and launched a prosperity promotion plan to revive the overall demand: by balancing loans and supporting the federal government to expand investment, it subsidized private investment, specially formulated investment plans to promote construction, transportation and environmental protection energy, reformed the income tax system, reduced taxes for the middle and lower classes, and increased welfare subsidies such as childcare allowances; Its economic policy hovers between Keynesianism (expanding government demand) and supply orientation (reducing taxes to activate investment and consumption and promote economic growth and employment); At the same time, strengthen international economic cooperation, hoping to weaken the impact of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, stabilize the exchange rate and build a stable external economic environment through the establishment of European monetary system cooperation.
However, due to the continuing crisis, people's consumption desire is sluggish, structural problems in industries such as steel, automobile, machine building and construction are prominent, and developed countries are also in crisis, resulting in sluggish exports. The above measures not only failed to solve the stagflation and unemployment problems in Germany, but also led to a substantial increase in public debt, which led to the failure of the overall adjustment policy.
During the1980s, Germany was plagued by low economic growth, rising unemployment rate (more than 2 million people) and public debt problems, which prompted the right-wing Kohl government, which came to power in 1982, to return to the old road of liberalism, give full play to market forces and give priority to solving unemployment and social security problems. Its economic and social policy slogan is "freedom, vitality and self-responsibility", emphasizing that the government should return to its own tasks and retreat from "excessive demands on the state and social security system", and society and the government only provide much-needed social assistance and security. It consolidates the initial effect of fiscal policy by increasing the contribution rate of employers and employees, reducing expenditures (reducing social security benefits), controlling government expenditures and not increasing new debts, and controlling the growth of public debts. The goal of stimulating enterprise investment and private demand, increasing enterprise profits and stimulating economic growth through tax reduction has basically been achieved, but the measures to create jobs (even encouraging early retirement) have little effect; In terms of monetary policy, it resisted the pressure of the United States to implement expansionary monetary and growth policies, insisted on controlling inflation, and maintained the stability of the intrinsic value of the mark, especially rejected the unreasonable demand of the United States in 1987 that forced the mark to appreciate excessively, thus endangering German exports.
Break the vicious circle
190' s, the unification of Germany, the impact of globalization and aging posed a severe challenge to Germany's economy, society and even the Rhine model. Not only low growth (less than 2%) and high unemployment (up to about 4 million) have been plaguing this stage of German society, but also the "German disease" syndrome is extremely serious. Over the years, the average annual growth rate of consumption is only 1.5%, and so is investment.
The reunification of Germany and Germany is undoubtedly a great blessing for the German nation. However, in the early 1990s, 1968+0990' s, the short-lived unification upsurge, in order to realize the economic system transformation and rebuild the eastern infrastructure and social security system, including the eastern revitalization project and the unification fund, the transfer payments from governments at all levels to the east had exceeded one trillion marks by the mid-1990s, which dragged down the western economy. In order to raise funds and curb inflation, the German government had to raise the dominant interest rate several times in a row 10, resulting in a large amount of hot money inflows, and the pound and lira in the European monetary system were also hit.
Rome was not built in a day. The weakness of Germany's economy is mainly due to a series of structural reasons such as welfare system and temporary events such as the unified burden of Germany and Germany. The overprotective social welfare system pushes up the production cost and forms a vicious circle of "high welfare-high tax-high debt-high cost-low investment-low growth". From1early 1970s to1late 1990s, the per capita welfare expenditure in Germany increased by more than 5.3 times, which became a drag on economic growth. In the industrial structure of 1970 and 1980, the protection of sunset industry is excessive, the research and development of information industry is conservative and backward, and there is a lack of leading industries with growth potential; The lack of flexibility of corporate governance system and profit-oriented incentive mechanism make the micro-lack of vitality; Excessive dismissal protection and excessive unemployment insurance benefits make the labor market rigid, and the unemployment rate is difficult to reduce.
From 65438 to 0998, faced with the rising unemployment rate, the helpless Cole government was replaced by the Social Democratic Party gerhard schroder government. As the right-wing leader of the left-wing party, Schroeder's economic policy proposition is compatible with the ideas of the left and right parties: on the one hand, he insists on stimulating investment and consumer demand by reducing taxes and invigorating the economy. On the other hand, in the field of social security, while advocating personal responsibility as before, we should try our best to maintain the original treatment and not increase social security contributions, and instead use ecological taxes to fill the gap and advocate environmental protection to reflect its left-wing color.
Looking at all stages of Germany's post-war economic development, although there are many problems, as far as the overall economic and social development is concerned, it still successfully ranks among the top in the world. One of its outstanding characteristics is to adhere to "capitalism with conscience", that is, to take the market economic system as the basic framework and market competition as the core, and give full play to the incentive and micro-promotion and adjustment functions of the "invisible hand"; At the same time, the government and society should intervene moderately to overcome the "market failure". Special emphasis is placed on the "magic quadrilateral" goal of full employment, balance of international payments, moderate economic growth and monetary stability, and the overall intervention and adjustment idea of stable, balanced and sustainable development is pursued; Attaching great importance to the rational utilization of energy and environmental protection shows that its economic guiding ideology has reached the realm of pursuing harmony in multiple latitudes.
(The author is the executive deputy director of the European Studies Center of Fudan University, director of the China World Economic Association and the German Research Association.)