The Prospect Industry Research Institute's 2016-2021 China Industrial Robot Industry Production and Sales Demand Forecast and Transformation and Upgrading Analysis Report points out that in 2015, in the face of complex domestic and foreign situations, China's robotics industry achieved healthy and rapid development, the market scale further expanded, the application field and region further expanded, and the independent brand continues to grow and develop. Looking ahead to 2016, China's robotics industry development opportunities and challenges co-exist, both the new round of technological revolution and industrial change in-depth impact, industrial economic transformation and upgrading to speed up the pace of economic development of endogenous momentum gradually strengthened, a variety of favorable policies continue to be implemented and other favorable factors, but also an increase in the international instability, the domestic economy is under greater downward pressure, the situation of foreign trade is more severe, the enterprise financing environment is poorer. Unfavorable factors.
I. Basic judgment on the situation in 2016
(I) Global robot demand continues to grow
Since 2015, the international economic situation is not optimistic, the global economic recovery is slow, geopolitics and the risk of emergencies rise. But with the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change breeding rise, with information technology and manufacturing technology fusion as the core of intelligent manufacturing, digital manufacturing, network manufacturing and other new manufacturing model is accelerating the development of developed industrial countries and regions attach great importance to the development of the robotics industry, the robotics industry as a national strategy, the above factors make the global robotics industry to maintain the rapid development of which the Asian market reaction The Asian market response is particularly active. According to the statistics of International Federation of Robotics, the global sales of industrial robots in 2014 amounted to 225,000 units, an increase of 27% compared with 2013, of which the sales in Asia accounted for about two-thirds, and the sales in the five major markets of China, South Korea, Japan, the U.S. and Germany accounted for about 75% of the total sales of industrial robots in the world.During the past 10 years from 2005 to 2014, the average annual growth rate of the global newly-installed industrial robots was about 14%. The average annual growth rate of newly installed industrial robots worldwide during the last 10 years from 2005-2014 was about 14%.
It is expected that in 2016, the momentum of economic recovery in developed countries will be strengthened, and the development prospects of emerging economies are expected to improve, and the global demand for robots is expected to continue to maintain faster growth. Among them, year-on-year growth in industrial robots is expected to be about 15%, about 6% in the Americas and Europe, and about 16% in Asia/Australia. The top two sales of specialized service robots are expected to remain defense robots and milking robots, which account for about half of service robot sales. Service robots for personal/domestic use are expected to sell 8 million units and are dominated by housekeeping robots such as vacuuming, lawn mowing and window cleaning, as well as entertainment and leisure robots.
(II) China's industrial robot market is rapidly expanding
Since 2015, the downward pressure on China's economy has further increased, and enterprises are facing difficulties and challenges beyond expectations. By the comprehensive impact of the domestic and international economy, at the same time, with the rapid rise in China's labor costs, the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, industrial enterprises, including industrial robots, including automation, intelligent equipment demand is rising rapidly. China's robotics industry to achieve healthy and rapid development, in 2014 China's new installations of industrial robots reached 57,000 units, accounting for about 1/4 of the global sales, an increase of 55% year-on-year, retention grew to 190,000 units.
It is expected that in 2016, China's robotics industry will continue to face a more complex development situation, but with the domestic "stable growth" policy effect of the further emergence of industrial economic transformation and upgrading of the pace of accelerated economic development of the endogenous momentum gradually strengthened in many places in urgent need of industrial structural adjustment and improve the ecological environment, China's new installations of industrial robots is expected to continue to maintain a high degree of stability. New installations of industrial robots in China are expected to continue to maintain a rapid rate of growth, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to be 30%.
(C) independent brand robots continue to develop and grow
Since 2015, with the release of "Made in China 2025" and its technology roadmap for key areas and the National Development and Reform Commission and other three ministries and commissions of the "Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment Innovation and Development Project Implementation Program", as well as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, "Intelligent Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration of Special Actions," and other policies, independent brand Robot development and growth accelerate the pace. First, industrial robots are developing rapidly. Taking Xinsong Robotics as an example, from January to July 2015, the company has realized the production and sales of more than 1,800 sets of robots, achieving an output value of about 2.8 billion yuan. It is expected that more than 3,500 sets of robots will be sold in 2015, which can realize sales revenue of more than 5 billion yuan. Second, the independent brand service robots began to force. First, the sales of cleaning robots surge, 2015 "Double Eleven" Corvus sales reached 315 million, sweeping robots Dibao Duo Duo single product sales of 100 million, is a major breakthrough in the family service robot industry; Second, the development of self-balancing car accelerated in 2014, the domestic market sales of balancing cars about 1 billion yuan. At present, the domestic balance car market has Ninebot, i-ROBOT, wind walker, easy step technology, Lexing and other brands. Third, the accelerated localization of robot parts. Guangzhou CNC developed a series of drive and servo motor products, breaking the industrial robot drive and servo motor monopolized by foreign countries. Wuhan Endeavour Robotics realized the motion controller and precision reducer and other key components of independent production.
It is expected that in 2016, with the "Strategic Emerging Industries" 13th Five-Year "Development Plan", "Robotics Industry" 13th Five-Year "Development Plan", the new promotion of industrial structural adjustment and the intelligent manufacturing policy brewing and introduction of manufacturing, Housekeeping, medical and health, entertainment and education, public **** security incident handling and other aspects of the demand for robots will continue to grow, the robotics industry will usher in a new huge space for development, the independent brand robots will be further developed and expanded.
(D) applications continue to extend
Since 2015, on the one hand, the national level issued by the "Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the promotion of industrial robotics industry development of the guiding opinions", "raw materials industry, the deep integration of the two plans to promote the plan (2015-2018)", "civil explosives safety production of fewer (no) implementation of the special project program," and other related policies Continuously promote the implementation, on the other hand, local governments have also introduced relevant promotional initiatives. For example, Guangdong proposed to promote the integration of information technology and industrialization with intelligent manufacturing, actively implement the "equipment replacement" and "production lines and production systems" transformation project, and cultivate ten intelligent manufacturing demonstration bases in the province, and vigorously develop the robot industry. Foshan to promote the application of industrial robots in automobile manufacturing, ceramic household appliances, machinery and equipment, and metal materials processing and other industry sectors. Anhui Province promotes the application of industrial robots in automobiles, home appliances, construction machinery, shipbuilding and other industries. The application of industrial robots from the current automotive, electronics, metal products, rubber and plastic industries, and gradually extended to the textile, logistics, defense industry, civil explosives, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, food, raw materials and other industries.
It is expected that in 2016, with the continuous implementation of the key position robot substitution project, the special project of safe production (without) humanization and new application demonstration policy, the application field of industrial robots will be expected to extend to the textile and logistics industries with high labor intensity, the defense industry with high degree of danger, the civil explosion industry, the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, food and other industries that have high requirements for the cleanliness of the production environment, and the ceramics, manufacturing industries that are hazardous to human health, and the raw materials and raw materials industries that are hazardous to human health. and human health hazards of ceramics, brick-making and other industries.
(E) Application areas continue to expand continuously
Since 2015, due to industrial base, enterprise willingness and other factors, industrial robot application areas are mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing and other places, whose ownership of industrial robots accounts for more than half of the country.
It is expected that in 2016, with the accelerated implementation of China's overall regional development strategy of developing the west, revitalizing the northeast, the rise of central China, and taking the lead in the east, the use of industrial robots in the middle and west will also grow, and the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other areas of concentration of high-end manufacturing industries will also make more use of industrial robots.
Two, a few issues needing attention
(a) products are mainly low-end
Into 2016, China's robotics industry still exists in the overall technology and foreign advanced level gap is large. Domestic industrial robots are mainly low-end products is still difficult to reverse the situation, the main production of handling and loading and unloading robots, mostly three-axis and four-axis robots, applied to automobile manufacturing, welding and other high-end industry sectors six-axis or more high-end industrial robot market is mainly dominated by Japan and Europe and the United States enterprises, the domestic six-axis industrial robots accounted for the country's new installed capacity of industrial robots less than 10%.
(ii) weak independent innovation capacity
Into 2016, the lack of core and key technologies of the original results and innovative ideas, the lack of business-oriented and market demand remains prominent. Highly reliable basic functional components of industrial robots, product design, materials and processes, mass production of hosts, the level of system integration and other aspects of technology with the developed countries there is a large gap. Precision gearboxes, servo motors, servo drives, controllers and other highly reliable basic functional components of the technology gap is particularly prominent, long-term dependence on imports. Service robot precision control, multi-sensor information fusion and intelligent control, precision reducers and servo drives and other core components, processing and assembly processes and other aspects of technology and foreign advanced products there is a large gap.
(C) enterprise cost pressure
Entering 2016, the situation of long-term dependence on imports of core components is still difficult to change, and the cost pressure on enterprises is large. 2015, about 75% of the precision reducer imported from Japan, the main suppliers are Harmonaco, Nabtesco and Sumitomo Corporation, etc.; servo motors and drives more than 80% dependent on imports, mainly from Japan, Europe and the United States and China Taiwan. A large number of key components rely on imports, resulting in large production cost pressure on domestic enterprises, compared to foreign enterprises, domestic enterprises to nearly four times higher than the price of the purchase of gearboxes, nearly two times the price of the purchase of servo drives.
(D) the recognition of independent brands is not high
Into 2016, China's robotics market dominated by foreign enterprises will continue, the independent brand urgently need to develop and grow. As the user companies have been accustomed to using foreign brands, especially the largest use, the highest quality requirements for equipment in the automotive and electronics industries, resulting in the independent brand of the body and parts products can not be put into the market as soon as possible, and even have a successful application experience of the product is difficult to achieve the promotion of application. Secondly, China's industrial robot production enterprise scale is generally small. Among them, ninety percent of the enterprise scale in 100 million yuan below, even if the leading enterprise Shenyang Xinsong 2014 sales revenue reached 1.52 billion yuan, but with Yasukawa, Fanuc, Kuka and other sales revenue of more than 10 billion yuan of foreign enterprises to compare, is still on the small side. Again, competition from foreign products is fierce. 2014 domestic industrial robots in China sold 17,000 units, accounting for less than 30% of the total market. Foreign-funded enterprises are actively expanding production, and from the whole machine assembly deep into the production of key components. For example, abb, Yaskawa, etc. have established production bases in China; in 2015, Japan's Nabtesco Co. and Shanghai Mechatronics Co. jointly invested in the Wujin Hi-tech Zone, which is scheduled to go into production at the end of 2016, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 units of precision gearboxes.
(E) industry standards to be further standardized
In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission to enhance China's own brand of industrial robotics technology and core competitiveness, to further promote China's robotics industry industry standards and norms for certification, in the revitalization of the industry and technological transformation in the establishment of a special project of the "Industrial Robotics Third-party inspection and testing capacity building - national robot testing and evaluation center (referred to as the National Assessment Center) "special, the center's headquarters in Shanghai, and in Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenyang, Wuhu and Beijing to set up a sub-center.
Entering 2016, with the National Assessment Center and other departments in the development of standards and norms, testing and certification implementation and other aspects of the work continues to advance, China's lack of industry standards and certification norms in robotics is expected to improve the situation, the enterprise in the design of the product physical safety, functional safety, information security and other norms and indicators are expected to be unified, is expected to promote the quality of domestic robot products The quality of domestic robot products is expected to be promoted.
Three, should take countermeasures
(a) improve the policy support system
One is in the funds, taxes, product sales subsidies and other aspects of the introduction of appropriate support policies to improve the use of domestic industrial robots. The implementation of tax incentives for manufacturers; expansion of the "first (sets) of major technical equipment to promote the application of the guide catalog", in order to promote the research and development and application of independent brands of industrial robots. Second, research and development of industrial application guidance policies. For example, for some toxic, hazardous and dangerous jobs, must replace manual labor with robots; for high temperature, high noise and other environmentally harsh jobs, to encourage the replacement of manual labor with robots. Allow the establishment of leasing companies to promote the use of robots for small businesses. Third, to encourage financial capital, venture capital and private capital to participate in the robotics industry, to support qualified enterprises in overseas capital markets direct financing.
(2) Increase technology research and development
One is to accelerate technology research and development, breakthroughs in industrial technology bottlenecks. Secondly, for the application needs, carry out industrial robot whole life cycle reliability and manufacturing process technology research, overcome the key parts and components technology and industrialization. Third, make full use of and integrate existing resources, continue to promote the construction of R&D platforms, application verification platforms and testing centers for complete machines and key components. Fourthly, we will build R&D platforms for next-generation technologies such as artificial intelligence, perception, recognition, drive and control, and at the same time pay attention to technological innovations in fields such as energy, big data, security and materials that are not included in the existing robot technology system.
(C) in-depth demonstration application
One is to accelerate the development of China's intelligent manufacturing needs, promote the typical application demonstration project, in the automotive, electronics, textile, logistics, national defense industry, civil explosives, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, food and other industries to carry out the demonstration of the application of the independent brand of industrial robots. The second is to promote the industrialization of key components such as reducers, controllers, servo motors and drives, sensors and other demonstration applications.
(D) focus on breakthroughs in key products
One is to market demand-oriented, focusing on the main technical force and funds, focusing on breakthroughs for automotive, electronics and other high-end applications of 2-3 kinds of industrial robots, mastering the overall technology, and the formation of a large-scale application, which will lead to the development of China's industrial robots and related parts and components production enterprises. Secondly, according to the diversified customer demand characteristics, select market segments to launch some cost-effective products, and gradually seize the domestic small and medium-sized enterprise user market.
(E) accelerate the formulation of industry development planning and standards
One is to accelerate the formulation of industry development planning, clear development priorities, planning industrial layout and development steps, to guide the healthy and orderly development of the national robotics industry, the formation of the whole industry chain system with the host enterprise, system integration enterprises and parts and industrial service enterprises to collaborate in the development of the whole industry chain system. The second is to strengthen the top-level design, the development of industry standards and key technology standards, as well as product standards and related application standards.
(F) Strengthen the construction of talent team
One is to effectively promote the integration of industry, academia and research talent training mode, and establish a new mechanism for joint training of talents by schools and enterprises. Relying on the Chinese Academy of Sciences and other well-known research institutions, through the implementation of large-scale cooperation projects, joint enterprises to train multi-level technical personnel from research and development, production, maintenance to system integration. Secondly, we utilize vocational training and vocational qualification system to cultivate talents through actual project exercise. The third is to strengthen the introduction of high-level talents and attract overseas students to return to China for innovation and entrepreneurship.