The development of the world economy is characterized by continuity.The development changes in the world economy in the second half of the 20th century, especially since the end of the 80s, will profoundly affect the basic conditions of the world economy at the beginning of the 21st century. The development of economic globalization, the deepening of regional economic cooperation and the advancement of the knowledge economy will have the greatest impact on the new century. Changes in international trade, investment and production are the barometer of the development changes in the world economy. In turn, changes in the development of the world economy affect international trade, investment and production both qualitatively and quantitatively.
The basic situation of the world economy in the first five years of the 21st century
The basic characteristics of the world economy at the beginning of the 21st century were not formed overnight, but were closely related to the international political and economic realities of the 20th century, which was built on two world wars and the bipolar world of the United States and the Soviet Union that lasted nearly half a century. In particular, the cold war after the Second World War was reflected in the economy, which was essentially a competition between two economic systems. in the early 1990s, the cold war pattern came to an end with the dramatic changes in the USSR and Eastern Europe. in the first half of the 1990s, the world economy went through a phase from recession to a slow rebound. The Asian financial crisis that occurred in the second half of the 1990s and the resulting trough in the world economy also showed that the current world economic system is not fully adapted to the needs of the changing international economy.
(a) The world economy is still in a period of adjustment, showing low and stable growth
In the 1990s, the world economy went through a period of intense turbulence, with two significant declines in economic growth, which ultimately led to the global average economic growth rate in the 1990s being lower than that in the 1980s and 1970s. As a result, the world economy entered a period of adjustment, in which, on the one hand, the economic situation in different regions of the world varied considerably; on the other hand, this adjustment will continue in the first five years of the next century.
(1) East Asia's economic adjustment will be basically completed
According to the Asian Development Bank statistics, in the last 20 years, East Asia's economy grew by an average of 8% per annum, much higher than the average annual growth rate of all developing countries of 4.3%, the average annual growth rate of developed countries of 3%. East Asia has become the most economically dynamic region in the world, and at the same time one of the world's largest trade and investment markets. 1997 financial crisis not only interrupted the rapid growth of the East Asian economy, but also spread to other regions to varying degrees, and had a great impact on the world economy in the late 1990s.
Therefore, one of our basic views is that East Asian economies will enter a phase of low and stable growth in the first five years of the 21st century. Countries in the East Asian region will further accelerate the pace of economic restructuring, in order to re-emerge as the growth point of the global economy. The economic recovery in the East Asian region will have a multifaceted impact on our country, especially in terms of trade and investment. China's competition with other countries in East Asia will intensify.
(2) to the European Union as the representative of the European economy will gradually out of the trough
The impact of the European economy on the global economy is self-evident. However, the influence of different regions of Europe and there is a big difference. Europe can be roughly divided into three blocks, Russia, the CIS and the rest of Europe, as well as the three Baltic States for a piece of this piece in addition to Russia, the rest of the countries on the global economy is not very significant. The second block is the former Eastern European countries (now generally known as Central and Eastern European countries), which includes 10 countries. They are actively moving closer to the European Union politically and economically, but their own impact on the global economy is less significant. The economic and trade cooperation between the Central and Eastern European countries and our country is small in scale and has little impact on our country. The third block is the Western European countries represented by the European Union. This piece is the main part of the European economy, the impact on the entire world economy is very great, with our country's ties are also very close.
Into the 21st century, the European Union in the economic restructuring will likely accelerate the pace of its economic growth rate will remain low and stable growth trend. 21st century, the first five years, the European Union on the world economy will have an impact on the events: the euro to complete the transition phase formally entered the field of circulation and the European Union's eastward expansion (the fifth enlargement).
Whether the euro can successfully complete the transition formally into circulation, the world economy will have a great impact. 1999 January 1, the euro in the lead with the region's members of the currency exchange rate at the same time, the official debut. Originally countries have high hopes, predicted that the euro will be a strong currency, but the euro a stage soon began to continue to go down. The euro is low is conducive to the EU's economic development and adjustment, it can promote the EU's exports increased, but the euro is low is not conducive to the image of the European Union, but also not conducive to the next step in the expansion of the euro zone. How to improve people's confidence in the euro is an important task for the EU as it enters the new century. The development of the euro will certainly have a significant impact on the international monetary system.
The EU has begun the action of eastward expansion, ready to Central and Eastern Europe, 10 transit countries and a Mediterranean countries absorbed into the EU in batches. If successful, the EU will expand from the current 15 countries to 26 countries, which in the long run will put the EU in a more favorable position in international competition.
Although the EU has made more progress in the integration process, it also has some difficulties in economic adjustment. For example, the current unemployment rate is still high (10.6% in 1998). Reducing unemployment has become an important social issue for the EU. There is also the problem of economic coordination between members of the eurozone and other EU members. Any measures or actions for economic integration must first ensure that the integration of the EU as a whole is not jeopardized.
(3) The United States will remain the world's economic leader
The United States in the first five years of the 21st century, will further adjust its political, security and economic strategy aimed at the global. Based on the absolute advantage in the field of economy, science and technology, in order to strengthen its dominant position in the world, continue to play a leading role in the interpretation of the economy of the whole world. July 1996, the U.S. National Science and Technology Council issued a report entitled "Technology for the Benefit of the Nation," one of the conclusions is that "by the end of the twentieth century, information will have become the most important commodity in the world's economic system. The rate at which the United States creates knowledge, and its ability to utilize that new knowledge, will determine its position in the international marketplace for the next century.
Driven by the strong development of the information industry, the U.S. economy has been growing for about 107 consecutive months. From the current adjustment of the U.S. economy, as long as there are no major contingent factors, the U.S. economy will remain stable in the next five years.
In summary, due to the impact of the Asian financial crisis in the second half of the 1990s, the world economy has therefore entered a phase of adjustment. This adjustment is expected to be completed in five years at the beginning of the next century. The world economy as a whole will show low and stable growth. Developed countries, as well as countries less affected by the financial crisis of the late 1990s, may adjust faster, and the benefits of adjustment will be easier to realize.
From the content of economic adjustment, most developing countries will remain at the level of industrialized industrial restructuring. Some developing countries, and even just in the transition from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy, but some of the higher economic level of developing countries and regions, has been or is entering the ranks of the "advanced economies". In the first five years of the twenty-first century, the direction of post-industrialization in these countries will become clearer, and they will strive to promote and upgrade their industrial structure in the fields of science and technology, information, services and management. The developed countries will really enter the era of knowledge economy. Their economic adjustment is to make full use of and rational allocation of knowledge and intellectual resources, with the help of a strong economic foundation, to obtain high profits in the world.
The three main features of this world economic adjustment; one is the duration of a long time, may not end until 2005; the second is involved in a wide range of most of the developed and developing countries will be involved in this adjustment of the trend; third is the adjustment of the content of the qualitative changes, not only to solve the problem of industrial structure imbalance, but also through science and technology and information to promote the adjustment process
The structural adjustment of the world economy will make the comparative interests of the countries (regions) of the world more obvious, prompting the countries to carry out the structural adjustment of imports and exports. If the establishment of the new international economic order can be better promoted, will make countries, especially developing countries, the terms of trade to obtain certain improvements. Inter-country trade activities will be more frequent, and trade will remain an important driving force for the economic growth of all countries.
In the first five years of the 21st century, the structure of international trade will also undergo significant changes. One possible scenario is that trade in primary products, such as raw materials, will increase dramatically in volume, but prices will be relatively low and volatile. In contrast, trade in manufactured goods will grow significantly, and trade in high-tech products in particular will account for a large share of total world trade. The main reasons for this situation are:
First, the pressure of population increase will promote the development of trade in primary products.
Second, a considerable number of developing countries, especially those least developed countries can only rely on the increase in the volume of exports of primary products, slowly promote economic growth.
Third, the structure of world export commodities to the direction of intelligent development, demonstrating the characteristics of the knowledge-based economy era. Microelectronics, bio-engineering, new materials, optical fibers, aerospace engineering, marine engineering, computer software and new energy as the representative of the new industry is changing rapidly, greatly promoting the adjustment and upgrading of the world industrial structure, thus promoting the structure of export commodities to the direction of intelligent development, deep processing, value-added trade in high-tech products will become the main content of the trade in manufactured goods.
(C) The imbalance in the distribution of international trade pattern will increase the economic gap
In the first five years of the 21st century, the imbalance in the distribution of international trade pattern will further widen the economic gap between different types of countries. The following aspects of the situation are likely to continue in the next five years.
(1) Developed countries will continue to dominate international trade.
(2) The share of developed countries in international trade is on a downward trend, and the share of developing countries is on an upward trend. This phenomenon shows, on the one hand, more developing countries to participate in international trade, the contribution of the world economy is increasing; on the other hand, the share of developed countries declined, does not mean that the loss of the dominant position of developed countries.
(3) within the developing countries will further widen the gap. Some developing countries with higher economic levels will become important trading countries, closer to the level of economic development to enter the ranks of developed countries. The majority of developing countries, basically still in the raw material supplier and the status of the market for manufactured goods.
These countries are at the bottom of the international production and division of labor system, subject to a variety of international and domestic factors, therefore, from the development of international trade in the benefits will be limited, the economy may continue to be at a low level.
(D) transnational corporations, regional economic cooperation on the promotion of international trade
The development of international trade, trade in services will have a great development, the proportion of the overall trade will be significantly strengthened, is expected to be by the mid-1990s, about 1 / 5 strong, rose to the early 21st century more than 1 / 3. Trade in services, trade in technology and trade in goods become the three main components of international trade.
Transnational corporations have become the mainstay of international trade, and are bound to play an increasing role in international trade at the beginning of the next century. The further development of regional economic cooperation, the promotion of trade will also be very obvious. Whether it is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Asia-Europe Economic Cooperation (ASEC) or the transatlantic cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the goal is to promote the liberalization of mutual trade within the region. North America, Western Europe, Japan, East Asia and parts of Latin America will maintain their status as the world's major or important markets. This is linked to the economic growth of these regions.
(V) the development of international capital flows
(1) the basic form of international capital flows are three, namely, bank loans, portfolio investment and direct investment. 21st century the beginning of the international capital flows of an important change, is that the portfolio investment will become the main mode of international capital flows, which is driven by the information revolution, the development of financial globalization results. In addition, international direct investment at the beginning of the next century, will still be an important form of international capital flows, but the way of investment will have a great change, the impact on the economies of countries is very significant.
(2) The flow of international capital in the next few years will still be developed countries, and developed countries are also the main exporters of international capital flows. A part of the developing countries with a higher level of economic development will become an important absorber of international investment. The reason is that this part of the country at the beginning of the next century, will maintain a high economic growth rate, liberalization and privatization will be further developed.
(3) with the expansion of international direct investment in the 21st century, the structure of the investment sector will also change, that is, from the primary industry, resource-processing industries to services and technology-intensive industries. The main mode of international direct investment will further tend to use mergers and acquisitions.
(4) cross-border **** purchase continues to be an important way of foreign direct investment (hereinafter referred to as FDI). The purpose of the host country to attract investment is to stimulate the development of their own economies, while the purpose of foreign investment by multinational corporations is to enhance competitiveness in the international arena, the two must be coordinated. From the international perspective, the key to attracting more and better FDI lies in the adoption of policies adapted to TNCs. According to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 1999, in 1998, 60 countries around the world amended 145 laws and regulations relating to FDI, of which 136 (94% of the total) were amended to create a more liberal environment for FDI.
The basic situation of the world economy in the first 15 years of the 21st century
(-) Completion of the adjustment of the world economy, entering a new round of high-speed development
Under the strong impetus of economic globalization, the completion of the adjustment of the world economy will enable countries to participate in the international division of labor according to the principle of comparative interests, and pursue the optimal combination of factors in a wider scope. The combination of factors. The whole world economy will enter a new round of rapid development.
(1) The global economic restructuring that began in the 1990s will promote the development of the economic structure and industrial structure of all countries in the direction of advanced development, especially the developed countries as the main promoter of the world's economic growth, as well as developing countries with a higher level of economic growth, because of the use of this economic restructuring of the opportunity to varying degrees of high-tech, information and knowledge as the main economic growth in the next century, so its development will be a very important factor in the development of the world economy. The development of these countries will be rapid. Therefore, within the first 15 years of the next century, the reason for the world's rapid economic growth mainly stems from the high application of high technology, information and knowledge in the fields of investment, trade and production.
(2) The next round of high growth in the world economy will inevitably continue to exacerbate the imbalances in the world economy. For the "marginalized" countries, the gap with the rest of the world will be further widened. The Committee for Development Planning of the United Nations formulated the original criteria for the least developed countries (LDCs) in 1971 and revised them five times by 1994. With each revision, the number of LDCs increased. According to the 1994 criteria, by the end of 1994 there were 48 LDCs in the world*** (up from 25 in 1971), in Africa (33), Asia (9), the Americas (1) and Oceania (5).
The problem of economic development in the above-mentioned LDCs is a destabilizing factor in the development of the world economy in the next 15 years. Eradicating poverty and reducing imbalances is an important issue for the international community.
(ii) Trade liberalization has become the basic trend, but there are still variables
The rapid development of regional economic cooperation on a global scale will be institutionalized in the next 15 years. Not only will trade barriers be greatly reduced or even eliminated within regional economic cooperation circles, but trade liberalization among regional economic cooperation circles will also be greatly developed. Trade liberalization has become an irreversible basic trend.
Under the trend of trade liberalization, developed countries are the main beneficiaries. For developing countries, trade liberalization is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it helps the economic development of developing countries, but on the other hand, their own markets and industries will be subjected to the strong impact of developed countries' capital.
In terms of the overall trend, trade liberalization is irreversible, and trade among countries will therefore develop rapidly. However, it should be noted that some countries will create new trade barriers for their own national interests, thus creating obstacles to trade liberalization. While developing countries and some countries striving to join the WTO had not yet had time to deal with the serious question of how to adapt their domestic economic policies to the rules of the WTO multilateral trading system, the developed countries had already put more new issues on the WTO's new agenda, thus confronting those countries with a severe international environment. For example, "new trade issues" such as trade and environmental protection, trade and labor standards, and trade and competition policy have been included in the WTO negotiating agenda. These issues, under the pretext of resisting "eco-dumping", "social dumping" and "unfair competition", will inevitably bring new obstacles to international trade in the 21st century and create resistance to the improvement of the terms of trade of developing countries. The pretext of "dumping", "social dumping" and "unfair competition" will certainly bring new obstacles to international trade in the 21st century, and resistance to the improvement of the terms of trade of developing countries, thus also bringing several variables to the future multilateral trading system.
(C) trade in high-tech products in the countries import and export trade will account for a large proportion of
The future growth of the world economy is mainly based on scientific and technological development. With the development of science and technology, high-tech industries are increasingly becoming the backbone of the industrial structure, high-tech products will continue to emerge and become an important trade content in the next 15 years. The World Bank "World Development Report 1998/99" pointed out that almost all the OECD members, high-tech industries in the manufacturing sector in the total value added to the proportion of the increase in exports in the increase is quite significant.
In recent years, 2/3 of the economic growth in the United States has come from the fastest growing information technology industry in the United States. U.S. exports of information technology products have accounted for 40% of total exports, and this proportion will increase even more in the next century. This change is also true in other countries. China, for example, high-tech industry in the next few years will also maintain rapid growth, it is estimated that the whole society electronic information products market size in 2000 will reach 1 trillion yuan, 2010 may reach 6 trillion yuan. China will become the world's electronic information industry powerhouse and one of the world's largest electronics market.
The increase in the production and export of high-tech products not only improves the quality of human life, but also, the expansion of the production of its products will sharply reduce the production cost and drive the export of related products under the effect of scale. This is a serious challenge for developing countries, especially those with a high level of economic development, but also a development opportunity.
(D) Changing trends in international trade
(1) Green trade has become mainstream. Will be in the future to get a great deal of development of the knowledge economy, can be said to be a promotion of human and natural coordination, sustainable development of the economy. This is different from traditional industry, which is to make full use of natural resources to maximize profits for the purpose, and thus does not take into account or little consideration of environmental benefits, ecological benefits and social benefits.
Over the next 15 years, the concepts of production, trade and consumption will change dramatically. The research and development of high-tech products will follow a new guiding ideology, that is, the scientific, rational, integrated and efficient use of existing resources, while developing the unutilized rich natural resources to replace the nearly depleted scarce natural resources. Therefore, production in a knowledge-based economy will pay more attention to harmonious cooperation with nature and the environment. On this basis, green consumption will become a trend, green trade will comply with the objective requirements of environmental protection and get great development.
(2) developing countries will become an important driving force of international trade. After decades of struggle after the Second World War, some developing countries (regions) towards the goal of industrialization, has made the world's attention to the achievements of its economic structure is rapidly converging with the developed countries, the role of international trade is very prominent. China, the Republic of Korea and the South-East Asian countries will play an important role. the 28th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in July 1995 expressed the full support of the participating countries for the completion of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 2003, which will see the emergence of a large market with a population of about 470 million. Although ASEAN was hit hard by the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the current situation shows that ASEAN has recovered from the blow and its role in international trade cannot be underestimated, and at the same time, it is bound to be an important market for the big trading nations to compete for.
Although the above developing countries (regions) are unlikely to be on an equal footing with the developed countries in international trade, the adjustment of the new economic and industrial structure will greatly promote the development of their national economies. With the gradual development of the new international economic order, a part of the more advanced developing countries will certainly become an important driving force in the future of international trade.
(E) capital will accelerate the flow around the world, becoming an important force in the economic development of countries can not be ignored
After the two major financial crises in the 1990s (the Mexican crisis and the Asian crisis) reflections, the financial reform of the countries will be gradually completed, which will be conducive to the stability of the international financial market, and to promote the flow of capital in the international arena. The international division of labor, which is based on high technology, information and knowledge, will also promote the rapid flow of capital across the globe. The rapid flow of capital across the globe may have an impact on the economic development of countries far beyond the 20th century. The next 15 years, the euro is expected to establish its position as an international currency, and with the dollar, the yen to form a three-pronged trend. (End)