Upstream and downstream need to be "covered"
BYD started mass production of masks on February 17, 2007, and plans to produce 5 million masks per day by the end of this month. In recent days, many people inside BYD have been bombarded by people from all walks of life, including the government and enterprises. In particular, Mr. Zhou, whose phone number was announced by BYD Mask's online ordering information, was even more distressed. He said that he had fallen into the abyss.
BYD insiders recently said in an interview with First auto channel that BYD has not fully returned to work because there is no mask. Many non-production line employees are on standby online and have not yet learned the specific time to return to work. The information about selling BYD masks online is false. It is said that there are more than a dozen fake versions. In fact, after BYD mass-produces masks, it will be mainly supplied by the government, hospitals, areas with serious epidemic situation and strategic partners.
"We also have a mask gap. BYD's cross-border manufacturing of masks is also related to the early resumption of production and sales, and some of them are supplied to internal production workers and strategic partners such as parts suppliers and distributors. " The above-mentioned people said that due to the surge of enterprises making masks, the supply of materials and machines for mask production was tight, and the supply of mask machines was in short supply, and the price soared. A set of production equipment rose from 250,000 yuan to about 6.5438+0.2 million yuan.
Faced with the current situation that one mask machine is hard to find, Guangzhou Automobile Group adopts a self-made method. The First auto channel reporter learned from Guangzhou Automobile Group that the Guangzhou Automobile Accessories Mask Production Project started on February 5th, and then sent a delegation to an enterprise in Dongguan to learn the related technology and production technology of mask production equipment. It took only five days to assemble an automatic mask production line. On February 1 1, the equipment was installed on site, and the trial production began on February 13. It is planned to make 30 masks by the end of February.
SAIC-GM-Wuling has taken the lead, grabbing equipment and raw materials, quickly completing a series of work such as renovation of clean workshop and equipment installation, and producing in its factory clean workshop in Liuzhou, Guangxi. At present, it has formed a production capacity of 500,000 masks per day, and delivered the first batch of 6,543,800 masks off the assembly line last week.
These car companies have joined the ranks of making masks. In addition to supporting the front line of epidemic prevention, some masks are used for personal use and given to partners such as upstream and downstream industrial chains. The main engine factory has tens of thousands of employees and partners, and the team is huge. There is a great demand for protective equipment such as masks and disinfectant needed for returning to work. On the one hand, it is necessary to resume vehicle production as soon as possible, and on the other hand, it is necessary to "cover" with upstream and downstream partners so that the industrial chain can resume normal operation as soon as possible.
At present, some upstream small and medium-sized parts enterprises still fail to resume normal production, while the proportion of downstream dealers returning to work is low, which is an unprecedented test for OEMs.
It is not easy for car companies to resume work and production.
As the six largest automobile groups in China, Guangzhou Automobile Group has 6.5438+0.2 million employees. At present, Guangqi Honda, a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Group, is implementing the plan of "Resuming Work in February 10 and Resuming Work in February 17". On the premise of ensuring the health and safety of employees, the local government's requirements for returning to work, spare parts supply and opening of 4S stores are comprehensively considered.
Not only Guangqi Honda, but also GAC Toyota, GAC Chuanqi, GAC New Energy and GAC Fick Guangzhou factories under GAC Group resumed production from 17.
Since February 3, some car companies have started to return to work. Some of Beijing Hyundai's factories in Beijing and Cangzhou, Hebei Province resumed work on February 3, and other enterprises also resumed work on February 10. However, at present, Hyundai's factory in Beijing has not started at full capacity, but has partially resumed work by means of sales and fixed production. Xpeng Motors, a new car-making army, also resumed work on February 10.
China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") conducted a survey on 183 vehicle production base. As of February of 12, 59 bases had resumed production, accounting for 32.2%. It is not easy for the main engine plant to resume work due to the application process, shortage of epidemic prevention materials, difficulty for some employees to return to their posts, shortage of spare parts and poor logistics.
Like most car companies, Toyota's factory in China was originally planned to start on February 10. However, on February 7th, Toyota China announced that it would extend the resumption dates of four factories in Tianjin, Sichuan, Jilin and Guangdong to February17th. The specific date of resumption of production will be comprehensively judged according to parts procurement and logistics. Bai, executive director of Toyota, said that the postponement of resumption of work was a decision taken to prevent the spread of the epidemic, spare parts procurement and employees commuting.
Since February 17, more and more car companies have joined the team to resume production, including some factories of multinational car companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen and Nissan. Among them, Toyota resumed production in three factories in China this week.
Even if they resume work, due to the supply of spare parts and other problems, many car companies are still unable to resume production smoothly and effectively, and their output is somewhat damaged. It is more difficult for car companies in Hubei epidemic areas to resume production. Recently, Seiji Kurishi, vice president of Honda Co., Ltd., said at a press conference in Tokyo that Dongfeng Honda can only resume work after February 17 at the earliest. The relevant person in charge of Dongfeng Honda recently said in a telephone interview with the First auto channel reporter that the Hubei provincial government requires all kinds of enterprises in the province to resume work no earlier than 24: 00 on February 20th. Dongfeng Honda will strictly abide by the relevant regulations of Hubei Province and Wuhan Municipal Government and resume work according to the requirements of the epidemic prevention and control headquarters of Dongfeng Company. Based on the epidemic situation in Wuhan where the company is located, the company will discuss again under the condition of ensuring the health of employees, suppliers, distributors and other full value chain partners, and the specific time for returning to work will be notified separately.
Some employees of Dongfeng Company believe that due to the supply of spare parts, logistics and other factors, the production and operation of Dongfeng Company will not be fully restored until at least March.
China auto market, whose sales volume has been declining for two consecutive years, is still in a poor start in 2020 due to the epidemic. According to the data released by China Automobile Association recently, the domestic automobile production and sales of 5438+0 decreased by 24.6% and 18.0% respectively in June. According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, the impact of the epidemic in 1 month on automobile production and sales is still relatively limited, and it has a greater impact in February.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that the epidemic situation had a great impact on the pace of production and operation of enterprises. Hubei Province is a major automobile production province in China, accounting for 9% of the national automobile production. There are also many industrial bases in Guangdong and Zhejiang. In addition, the automobile factory is a national supporting facility with primary and secondary suppliers. As long as there is a problem in one link, it will affect the production rhythm of the whole vehicle. Now the supply of parts is a very big problem. Chen Shihua believes that the impact of the epidemic on automobile production is expected to exceed one million vehicles.
A 4S shop only sold two cars a week after it resumed work.
The "war epidemic" is complicated, so the main engine factory should not only help the upstream parts enterprises, but also join hands with the downstream dealers to tide over the difficulties.
Guangzhou Automobile Toyota Store No.1, located on Huangpu Avenue, Guangzhou, was postponed to February 17 for epidemic prevention. Salespeople wear masks and stand by, strictly take the temperature of every customer who arrives at the store and disinfect every car that arrives at the store.
Dealers are returning to work one after another, but the current rate of returning to work is much lower than that of the main engine factory. Affected by the epidemic, some 4S stores that open their doors for business have a hard time. A person in charge of a Dongfeng Honda 4S store in Guangzhou recently said in an interview with First auto channel that since the resumption of work in February 10, there have been one or two groups of customers every day, and only two cars have been sold in a week, while the average monthly sales last year was around 200.
According to china automobile dealers association's investigation on dealers' resumption of work after holidays, as of February 12, the association had monitored and investigated 60 4S stores of automobile dealer groups in more than ten provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, with a comprehensive resumption rate of 8.4%. According to the survey, the sales efficiency of 4S stores is 4.7%, the after-sales efficiency is 6.2%, and the return rate of employees is 20.2%. China automobile dealers association Deputy Secretary-General Relo believes that automobile circulation is a capital-intensive industry, and the asset-liability ratio of most companies is above 60%, so many enterprises are facing the risk of capital cut-off. Even after the epidemic situation has eased, it will take some time for enterprises to operate normally.
In the short term, many institutions are not optimistic about car sales. Deloitte analysis pointed out that consumers' willingness to buy a car will be divided and will decline overall in the short term. Under the epidemic situation, the after-sales demand of consumers is weakened, dealers will delay the resumption of business, and the short-term inventory pressure of dealers will increase. In addition, Deloitte also believes that the automobile approval plan is difficult and may face inventory imbalance when consumption rebounds.
Wilson's short-term forecast for the domestic passenger car market is that it will face a cliff-like decline in the first half of 2020. The reason is: from the terminal point of view, the epidemic broke out on June 20, 65438, and with the opening of the peak holiday in Spring Festival travel rush, the sales volume of the automobile market was frozen, and there were almost no passengers in the dealerships around the country; Most enterprises postponed the resumption of work, and the opening cycle of the auto market was short in February, making it difficult for passenger car sales to improve; In March and April, if the epidemic situation is well controlled, people's concern and caution about the epidemic situation will not be reduced before the official announcement of "lifting the ban", and consumer psychology will hardly reach the normal level. In addition, most manufacturers delayed the resumption of work, and the downtime overlapped with the Spring Festival holiday, so the supply rhythm of spare parts was disrupted, which had a certain impact on production capacity and delivery in the short term.
Therefore, Wilson currently predicts that the sales volume in the first quarter of 2020 is likely to drop by more than 50% year-on-year, while it is still affected by the epidemic in April of the second quarter, and the year-on-year decline probability is also above 10%. However, the agency believes that "opening low and going high, rising in the third quarter" is the main tone, and it is still possible to restore the expected sales volume for the whole year at dawn or in the second half of the year after dark.
Before dawn, the OEM took multiple measures to reduce the pressure on dealers. Many car companies, such as BMW, Audi, Volvo, Dongfeng Nissan, SAIC Volkswagen, Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Da Yue Kia, failed to evaluate their February sales targets and provide business policy support to dealers.
At present, although only some employees and links in the automobile industry have resumed work, it will take some time to fully resume production and sales. However, the China Automobile Association believes that the introduction of various measures and guarantees will promote the resumption of production, manufacturers are still full of confidence, and local governments will also introduce some policies to help SMEs.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.