The collapse of the Indian epidemic has brought more variables to U.S.-India relations, and in the face of India's perilous situation, Biden must make a choice between stockpiling more supplies to cope with unknown risks, or fully assisting his ally and reshaping the U.S. Asia-Pacific alliance.
First, the Indian epidemic collapsed
The Indian epidemic unsurprisingly collapsed on April 22, India's health ministry said that in the past 24 hours, India reported 314,835 new cases of new coronary pneumonia, a record for the highest number of new cases in a single day worldwide. According to Johns Hopkins University, the total number of cases in India has reached 15.9 million as of April 22, second only to the United States with 31.9 million cases.
India's numbers are lower than the US, but more likely underestimated. Compared to the U.S., which is rich in medical resources, India is at an overall disadvantage in terms of the number of hospital beds, the proportion of healthcare workers, and medical supplies, and India does not have the capacity for large-scale testing that the U.S. has. The Indian government concealed the severity of the outbreak and tried to muddle through, eventually paying the price in blood.
In terms of the rapid growth rate of cases in India, the new coronavirus has already spread, and it is too late to quarantine it, said Navin Dang, a microbiologist and chairman of the lab in New Delhi, whose data show that in New Delhi, the new coronavirus tested 30% positive, and with only 1.5% of the population of India fully vaccinated against the new coronavirus, there is nothing more India can do to stop a new wave of the outbreak.
According to the current trend, the number of cases in India is likely to exceed 100 million, which is equivalent to one in ten Indians infected with the virus. Such a large number of patients is far beyond the ability of the Modi government to cope with.
The Wall Street Journal describes the tragedy in India, where underfunded public hospitals are overwhelmed by the surge in cases, and private hospitals are struggling to keep up with the demand, many people have no choice but to queue up outside of a public hospital to get a bed, or to go back and forth between hospitals, pleading for even a minute of doctor's time in the hospital, and many families have lost their homes and money, and are spending nights and days in the hospital. Many have no choice but to wait in line for a bed outside a public hospital, or to travel from hospital to hospital, begging to be seen by a doctor for even a minute.
A large number of Indians could not be admitted to hospitals, and they had to let their loved ones die, and then burn the bodies on the streets. The streets of India were thick with smoke, and there were body parts everywhere, and unknowing travelers from far away might have thought that they had returned to the Middle Ages, when desperate Europeans faced the Black Death with nothing but tears and the burning of their loved ones' bodies. The first time I've seen this, I've seen it in my own words.
India's nightmare does not stop there, India has been found British, South African and Brazilian variants of the virus, there is also a mutant strain unique to India, experimental data show that the Pfizer vaccine on the South African virus efficiency has fallen dramatically, the spread of mutant viruses to make India's outbreak worse.
The massive contagion in India also provides a breeding ground for viruses, which can evolve in contagion to produce more variants and render vaccines ineffective, and India can become a base for viruses to evolve and produce more dangerous variants.
Virus in order to survive the need to evolve is always the direction of high infectivity, low mortality, India's variant of the virus infectiousness greatly enhanced, for four consecutive days, India's new cases are between 20-35 lakhs, some experts believe that India's surge in cases is likely to be related to the new variant of the virus.
The crowded hospitals, the acute shortage of medical supplies, and the new variant of the virus have made the epidemic in India unstoppable. In the face of the critical situation, Modi was at a loss, and he felt a great fear, and had to delete a large number of critical remarks from Indian netizens.
Modi is undoubtedly responsible for the outbreak of the epidemic in India.
(India's descent into hell)
Second, Modi's predicament
India's epidemic collapse, Modi is undoubtedly the first responsible person, he relaxed the social isolation restrictions early in a desperate attempt to muddy the waters, and ultimately, he paid the price of his own stupidity. But Modi's inaction also has an element of helplessness. Neither India's political system, nor India's medical resources, nor India's logistics system supports Modi's adoption of Chinese-style social isolation.
China's city sealing and social isolation can be successful, without China's highly developed infrastructure, big data Internet system. During the sealing of the city, a large number of delivery workers, couriers to and from them, to ensure that the community's supplies, normal work life, can be realized with the help of the Internet. China's centralized system of power, only based on such technical conditions on the effective implementation of social segregation and sealing of the city, while India clearly does not have this condition.
India's political system is not a loose confederal system, but a more centralized federal system, the power of India's central government is not small, theoretically, can also be enforced to seal the city and social isolation, but India's biggest problem is the lack of resources.
India's infrastructure is far inferior to China, India's Internet of Things system is booming, India simply does not have the ability to carry out large-scale distribution of materials. India's national quality, financial resources, medical resources are far less than China, even if rich as China, in Wuhan against the epidemic also mobilized national resources, which quickly stabilized the situation, India obviously does not have this ability.
Modi ended social isolation early, not because he was stupid, but because he realized that India was simply not capable of emulating China, and that even if Indians followed his orders to isolate themselves at home, he was not capable of guaranteeing supplies, and that if he did, a lot of Indians would starve to death. His relaxation of the ban is quite a breakthrough.
But the virus is a materialist through and through, and it won't let India off the hook just because it's poor. It's spreading rapidly through the slums of India, and the squalor of the poor has become a breeding ground for the virus, and it's ravaging the poor people of India who are not afraid to die.
The poor neighborhoods have fallen, and the rich neighborhoods are not immune. The rich neighborhoods of New Delhi have also been attacked by the virus, and a large number of rich people have been infected, and the New Crown Virus has become a national disaster in India, and both the rich and the poor have been y affected by it.
This predicament is far beyond Modi's ability to cope with, if left unchecked, Modi will not have the chance to be the next prime minister, he will be discredited, become a sinner of India, the only thing he can count on is the United States.
If the United States and the European Union can do everything they can to help India, Modi may have a chance of survival.
Third, Biden's crossroads
For Biden, India is an indispensable part of his remodeling of the Asia-Pacific alliance, Biden claimed that he wanted to unite the allies to fight against China, and India is the most powerful force in South Asia, India and China do have difficult to resolve territorial disputes, India is the United States to contain the best Chinese Pawns.
So in the face of Modi's plea for help, Biden quickly responded by promising that the United States will do everything possible to support India's vaccines, medicines, raw materials for vaccine production and other supplies, and said that India came to the aid of the United States during the seriousness of the epidemic, and that the United States will not sit back and watch today.
Biden mentioned that will give Modi help in the following six areas:
1. supply a large number of raw materials for vaccine manufacturing, India is the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine production base, access to raw materials in India can increase the speed of vaccine production.
2. Supply a large amount of medical supplies, such as protective clothing, masks, etc., to protect Indian health care workers.
3. Supply a large number of ventilators to reduce the mortality rate of Indian patients.
4. Expand Pfizer's vaccine production base in India to produce 100 million vaccines by 2022.
5. Send CDC experts to work with India to fight the epidemic.
6. Call on international forces to help India, and India **** through the difficult times.
Biden words are very good, but the extent of implementation is not necessarily, for Biden, he must choose between the future risks and the needs of allies.
To choose the former is to see India dead and will lose the loyalty of an ally, and to choose the latter is to have to take on the possibility of a resurgence of the epidemic in the United States.
The U.S. vaccination speed, high vaccine production capacity, many states stored a year can not finish the vaccine, but the U.S. storage of vaccines in response to possible crises, the global epidemic is not better, there is still a recurrence of the epidemic may be, the U.S. must be prepared for the resurgence of the epidemic. And although the U.S. vaccine, but India's population is much larger, in order to achieve herd immunity, India may need 2 billion vaccines, even if 50% of the population vaccination count, India also needs at least 1.3 billion vaccines.
The current US is not in a position to help India.
Vaccines are the fastest way to control the epidemic, and other things like providing ventilators, protective clothing, and specialists are just a drop in the bucket, and are better than nothing for India, where the epidemic is already out of control.
Although Biden's best efforts can not save India, but the U.S. assistance is more of an attitude that shows that the United States attaches importance to India as an ally, showing that the United States is a credible big country, for Modi and the PPP, as long as Biden did his best, even if the results are not satisfactory, but also a great favor. Biden's assistance will have the effect of a Marshall Plan.
Helping India is a must for America's national interest, but Biden has not only national interests to consider, but electoral interests as well.
If the U.S. big aid to India, the U.S. epidemic for a variety of reasons recurred, there is not enough vaccine, then the public will certainly be the anger spread to Biden, then not to mention Biden's presidential election, the Democratic Party's midterm elections will be a full plate of losses, Biden, if you choose to choose the national interest, you have to bear the risk of the election may occur.
Electoral interests or national interests, is a crossroads in front of Biden. He must make a choice before the possible risks and the credibility of the United States, Biden's choice will be a test of his true composition, Biden, is a hypocrisy to the extreme, greedy for personal gain politicians or politicians with a big heart, will be focused on this moment, Biden is willing to take the risk of electoral failure for the national interest of the United States.
The collapse of the Indian epidemic is both Modi's dilemma and Biden's crossroads, as the US-India relationship moves to a new phase, and Biden's disposition will determine the success or failure of US Asia-Pacific strategy.
Of course, we also have to envision a worst-case scenario, that is, Biden's full assistance to India, the U.S. epidemic did not recur, Modi is grateful, and China as a diversion of contradictions, through the propaganda of China's manufacture of the virus to divert the Indian nationals to his vocal criticism, that way, the United States became India's savior, and we bear Modi's culpability, a scenario that is, undoubtedly, the worst possible outcome.