In addition to the euro zone, emerging economies such as Russia and Ukraine also suffered heavy losses. If the United States continues to release water crazily, it may usher in an era of global inflation.
Some friends here can't help asking, how serious is the situation in our good brother Russia now? In the face of US water release and possible interest rate increase in the future, can China afford it?
First, let's look at the current situation in Russia. Russia's economic situation in recent years has not been optimistic. First of all, in the economic system, Russia's economic structure is relatively simple, mainly exporting energy.
Compared with a perfect industrial system like China, there are really few directions for Russian to create income. Not only that, in recent years, the United States' crackdown on Russia has not decreased at all.
Coupled with the impact of the epidemic on the economy, Russia's economy has just recovered to the level before the epidemic, but with the United States beginning to influence the world, Russia's economy has been hit again.
The latest data shows that the inflation rate in Russia has reached 6.5%, and the target inflation rate in Russia at the beginning of the year was set at 4%. It can be said that the domestic inflation situation has far exceeded expectations.
Moreover, the current value of 6.5% is still the value after four rounds of interest rate hikes in Russia. If no interest rate increase measures are taken, the domestic inflation situation in Russia will be more difficult to contain.
For ordinary Russians, in June and July alone, the household inflation rate in Russia rose from 1 1.9% to 13.4%.
This means that the cost of living for Russian residents has been soaring.
There are two main reasons for the serious inflation in Russia. One is the global price rise, which has led to soaring domestic prices in Russia.
In addition to the global supply chain, the ruble depreciated by 6.7% in the first half of this year. The devaluation of the currency, coupled with this imported inflation, has also led to many uncertainties in Russia's economic growth.
On the issue of hyperinflation, the Russian central bank and the American central bank have completely different views and take completely different measures.
Although some time ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released the rumor of raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at all and is still adopting a loose monetary policy.
They think that inflation is only temporary and will not have a long-term impact.
In Russia's view, the current inflation may last for a long time, so this year alone, Russia has raised interest rates for four rounds, which even surprised Russian domestic economic experts.
Moreover, the Russian central bank also warned that a huge financial crisis may come, which will sweep the world as soon as 18 months later, and its intensity may not be less than that of the 2008 financial crisis.
Faced with the different views of the United States and Russia, in my opinion, Russia's statement may be more accurate.
The reason why the United States continues to adopt a loose monetary policy does not mean that they are not worried about inflation, and inflation is not just temporary as they say.
If it is really only temporary, the Fed will not release the news of raising interest rates in the first few months.
In this regard, Bank of America strategists also hit the nail on the head: Although the Federal Reserve has been emphasizing that inflation is temporary, the latest evidence shows that the actual situation is not so, but worse. According to the survey data of the World Federation of Large Enterprises, after 12 months, the inflation rate in the United States may reach 6.8%.
With such a high inflation rate, the American economy will face another problem, that is, stagflation, because of the economic stagnation caused by high inflation.
I believe that the Fed can see these risks, and the reason for not choosing to raise interest rates is actually unspeakable.
In my previous video, I actually told you why the United States is not in a hurry to raise interest rates. The main reason is that raising interest rates will bring heavy losses to the US economic recovery. Friends who are interested in this topic can watch my previous videos.
Today we will make an extension on this topic: If the United States raises interest rates urgently at present, what impact will it have on the world?
In fact, in the matter of raising interest rates, if the United States raises interest rates, it will still have a great impact on the world, especially on emerging economies.
First of all, if the United States really takes the operation of raising interest rates, it means that dollar assets will become more preserved. Whether it is to deposit dollars in banks or buy US debt, it is a very good investment direction.
This will allow a large number of dollars from all over the world to return to the United States. For countries outside the United States, the withdrawal of dollar assets will turn many domestic industries from dividend assets into risky assets.
Especially for countries with emerging economies. They account for a small proportion in world trade, and their foreign exchange reserves in dollar terms are also very small. When the dollar assets are evacuated in a large area, it will greatly reduce the activity of the market.
Many enterprises may face operational difficulties. When the dollar in the market is greatly reduced, it will also aggravate the demand of countries to exchange dollars in the international market.
When this demand increases, the domestic currency has to face the risk of depreciation.
This has a very serious impact on those emerging economies, especially on domestic production. In short, it will definitely have an impact.
According to Russia's forecast, if the United States raises interest rates at this time, it will reduce the world GDP growth rate by 1. 1%. So far, we have finished talking about the current situation in Russia and the possible impact of the US interest rate hike on the world.
Some friends here can't help asking, does the current inflation in the United States have an impact on China? If the United States really raises interest rates, will China be affected?
In fact, hyperinflation in the United States has been going on for some time. It will definitely have some influence on our country.
Some time ago, the prices of international agricultural products soared. For us, going to the supermarket to buy food can be obviously felt.
However, due to China's abandonment of the exchange rate target, the RMB has appreciated to some extent.
Therefore, although this imported inflation has a certain impact on us, our domestic inflation rate is still maintained at a very healthy level.
For us ordinary people, this kind of influence is actually not great.
As for the US interest rate hike, as we mentioned above, once the US raises interest rates, emerging economies will be greatly affected, mainly due to the withdrawal of US dollar assets and insufficient foreign exchange US dollar reserves.
For this, we will not be greatly affected. First of all, in terms of China's foreign exchange reserves, China's US dollar foreign exchange reserves have been stable at around US$ 3 trillion for a long time.
With such a huge foreign exchange reserve, even if a large number of US dollar assets flee, we will not have a shortage of US dollar foreign exchange in a short time.
With the continuous development of China's foreign trade, the US dollar foreign exchange consumption can also be supplemented by international trade.
Therefore, raising interest rates will have a greater impact on emerging economies, such as Ukraine, Brazil and Russia.
Although you don't have to worry too much about the possible impact of the US interest rate hike, you can't relax your vigilance.
At present, the United States continues to maintain a loose monetary policy, which is equivalent to planting a time bomb for the future.
Inflation is spreading, and 23 countries have been hit hard.
If this kind of inflation continues to spread and even pushes the world into the era of high inflation, it will provide a hotbed for the outbreak of the financial crisis.
The financial crisis that no country wants to see will hit the global economy hard.
At present, the United States is taking care of itself, and some measures are mainly to protect its own interests. In this process, it did not assume the responsibility that a big country should bear.
Only when the crisis comes can we meet the challenge in a complete state. Compared with the present situation in the United States, China has shown a more stable attitude. At present, the global economic development is blocked, and there are many opportunities and crises.
The international environment is changing now, and we are really looking forward to seeing how high we can grow in the next decade.