On August 21, Wen's shares made public the semi-annual report as of June 30, 2019, the company's total operating income of 30.435 billion yuan, an increase of 20.22% year-on-year; attributable to shareholders of the listed company's net profit of 1.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50% to 50.76%. The company's total assets of 53.486 billion yuan, net assets of 34.964 billion yuan, asset-liability ratio of 34.63%, to all shareholders per 10 shares of cash dividends of 3 yuan (tax included).
The impact of the epidemic of African swine fever continues, the farming industry is also experiencing a reshuffle, there is a fall such as Eagle Farming and Animal Husbandry was delisted, there are also related listed companies in this cycle occupied an obvious advantage.
Pig loss poultry rise wind control ability into an advantage
As one of the leading domestic breeding enterprises, to promote the performance of Wen's shares of the driving factors of growth, there are three main aspects.
First, the poultry business is performing well.
In 2019, yellow-feathered chicken each large-scale breeding enterprises are Lupin expanding production and increasing the volume of yellow-feathered chicken prices in the first quarter of the first half of the year declined year-on-year. But by the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, out of psychological panic about the epidemic, part of the pork consumption demand shifted to poultry, in the demand side of the formation of support for poultry prices, the second quarter with the rise in the price of meat pigs, broilers, meat ducks and other meat and poultry prices have also risen.
WEN's poultry business also seized the market opportunity to steadily promote the expansion of production, the first half of the year **** sales of commercial broiler 394 million, an increase of 17.51% year-on-year, as much as into the annual sales target of about 47.90% (the annual sales target of 110% of the sales volume in 2018), to achieve a sales revenue of 9.764 billion yuan, an increase of 15.02%; sales of meat ducks 17.084 million, an increase of 21.52% year-on-year, single broiler and meat duck profitability level remained stable.
WEN's continued expansion in the poultry business is also reflected in the promotion of the transformation and upgrading of the poultry business, the opening of new channels for wholesale and retail of fresh poultry products, and constantly improve the proportion of broiler, broiler duck slaughtering and fresh sales, expanding market share.
Not long ago, Wen's planning to 640 million yuan to buy Jiangwu xihai poultry group 80% stake in the layout of the white-feathered chicken business. After the acquisition is completed, is expected to form a strong variety of complementary with the company's existing poultry business. In addition, Wen also set up the East China Poultry Company preparatory office, from the strategic formal layout of the white feather chicken business, to further improve the poultry industry chain, enhance the company's poultry business in the future comprehensive benefits.
Secondly, the company's hog slaughtering volume is growing steadily and profitability is gradually improving.
One year since the African swine fever epidemic occurred in August 2018, the nation's hog herds and stockpiles have declined apparently. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), from January to June 2019, the country's hog farrowing was 313.46 million heads, down 6.2% year-on-year, and hog inventory was 347.61 million heads, down 15.0% year-on-year.
During the reporting period, the Company sold 11,774,000 commercial meat pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.69%, exhausting approximately 52.81% of the annual sales target (the annual sales target is based on the sales volume of 2018), and realizing sales revenue of RMB18.041 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.32%. The prevention and control of the African swine fever epidemic is still the company's top priority of the pig business during the reporting period, the first half of the company's commercial meat pig production costs have risen, January and February hog prices are low, after March the national hog prices began to return to the rise and continue to rise, the pig business has also turned a loss into a profit, but a combination of other cost factors in the first half of the company's pig business collectively floated into a small loss.
Third, the company's ancillary business and financial investment scale in the steady growth.
During the reporting period, Wen's shares, including veterinary medicine, equipment creation, meat processing, dairy products and other ancillary businesses, total revenue *** to realize 1.946 billion yuan, an increase of 11.75%; external total sales revenue grew to 966 million yuan, a comprehensive year-on-year growth of 21.45%. Among them, the equipment creation industry is the most prominent, external sales revenue year-on-year surge of 187.72%.
In addition, financial investment performance and earnings rose steadily year-on-year. It is worth noting that one of the major subsidiaries of Winslow? Guangdong Wen's Investment Company Limited realized a net profit of 695 million yuan in the first half of 2019, an increase of 8.13 times year-on-year, and the reason for the substantial growth came from the company's equity investment project ? Triangle Defense? achieving IPO listing and recognizing a gain of 715 million yuan on changes in fair value under the new financial instruments standard.
China Pig Alert Network analyst Feng Yonghui thought, Wen's shares of this model is currently the most favored in the farming class of listed companies, because there is no eggs are put into a basket, even if the losses caused by African swine fever is also within the scope of control, in which the poultry industry has played a particularly large risk offsetting role, while seizing the strong alternative demand, and fully enjoy the dividends of the upward trend of the Tichu industry.
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? The obvious benefit is that the east is not bright, from the point of view of the industry chain risk aversion of wind control ability, Wen's shares are in the forefront, Zhengda, COFCO is also good, but in the pig and poultry in this piece of the volume and Wen's still can not be compared to the pastureland shares of the industry chain is not long enough.? Feng Yonghui analyzed that the breeding class industrial chain is too short, only one or two links of the layout of the enterprise, the risk of market impact is greater.
Shuanghui, for example, focusing on the layout of the slaughtering link Shuanghui in the breeding link short board quite a lot. Where there is no layout of their own breeding links, once the market shortage of hogs, poultry, will be on the verge of material is the situation of the control of the rhetorician, Shuanghui's advantage lies in a large number of imported indicators each year, can be hedged against the slaughter industry's ShuoDa risk, but the profitability is going to be poorer. Feng Yonghui said, the first half of the pig plate, Wen's shares are considered to be the least volatile one, wind control ability is one aspect, the market value of the large volume, low debt ratio is also an important reason.
Pig prices will break the history of market-oriented vaccine is the node
By the African swine fever epidemic and seasonal consumption of low impact, the national hog prices in January and February trend of downturn, the pig industry collectively surfaced losses; March hog prices began to rise rapidly in April after the spread of the African swine fever epidemic from north to south, the hog farmers to advance out of the fence to sell to add; at the same time, some areas of the consumer out of the psychological panic about the epidemic. Psychological panic about the epidemic, part of the pork consumption demand shifted to poultry, the stage of pork demand has declined, hog prices fell slightly; the end of May to June, with the hog production capacity continues to decrease, the amount of slaughtering reduced, the national hog prices began to climb steadily and is constantly high trend.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the 4th week of June 2019, the national even price of live pigs was RMB 16.72/kg, up 46.5% year-on-year. As of August 20, the price of live pigs has broken 23 yuan/kg.
The first half of the country's breeding sows filed a rapid downward trend, and the magnitude of the decline has increased compared to the same period of the previous year. 400 monitoring counties in June breeding sows filed, down 5.0% from the previous year, a year-on-year decline of 26.7%, the stock fell below the low point of the last few rounds of the cycle.
Wen's shares predicted that the above situation is expected to at least the next two years of the pig slaughtering volume caused by a large impact on the price of hogs will be due to supply and demand tensions and maintain a high level for a long time.
Feng Yonghui also said, the industry thought the second half of the pig prices will continue to rise, very about to hit a super high historical record, ? A single pig profit is expected to reach a maximum of 2000 yuan, by then it will be ShiChuang who have more pigs.
Ordinary view, pig prices soaring, the breeding industry will be no threshold influx of investment. But this time is different, the impact of the African swine fever epidemic and the risk of huge, will be a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises stopped outside the door, there is no abundant capital to run the determination of the pig enterprise can get the admission ticket. African swine fever epidemic prevention and control normalization, will give birth to large-scale farming concentration of the industry trend.
Feng Yonghui said to the chief financial reporter, now pig profits and risks are proportional to the general business is basically the only opportunity, because of swine fever loss of heavy capital chain broken enterprises are difficult to borrow money, relying on government subsidies are not enough to fly up again. Only listed companies have many opportunities for trial and error, African swine fever gives the chief echelon of listed farming enterprises unprecedented opportunity, the industry's ordinary competitors simply do not have the ability to fight.
It is worth noting that all listed pig farming companies, are keeping a close eye on the development of the African swine fever vaccine, accelerating the run to prepare for the upcoming pig farming tide. Wen's shares, for example, announced that in the second half of the year in the prevention and control of the African swine fever epidemic, at the same time, will accelerate the construction of pig projects and put into operation, heavy production work, the future of the company will be more determined to step up the development of the pig industry's established strategy, will be 10% of the national hog market share (about 70 million heads) as the future development of the chief period of the strategic objectives.
, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Harbin Veterinary Research Institute (China Animal Health and Epidemiology Central Harbin sub-central) of the "gene deletion of attenuated African swine fever virus and its application as a vaccine," the patent application open. It has been experimentally shown that both strains can provide 100% immunoprotection against the strong strain of African swine fever prevalent in China.
The news has attracted widespread attention, marking an important breakthrough in African swine fever vaccine research, and the industrialized mass production of African swine fever vaccine is expected to be realized.
Although the laboratory vaccine research has been successful, given the rapid mutation of the African swine fever virus, there is still a long way to go before a safe, stable, and quality-assured vaccine can be industrially mass-produced.
Feng Yonghui said, the production efficiency of the laboratory vaccine is very low, marketed also need to accept the market validation, the African swine fever virus mutates faster than the speed of medical development, which are constant factors, ? As far as I know, the production process of the marketed vaccine is still in the exploratory stage, and it will take some time.?
He revealed that the market is currently a number of listed companies in the pig farming has got the experimental vaccine, the effect of the experiment in the pig farm is also good, based on this, these companies are in a large amount of money to invest in pig farming, marketed vaccine against African swine fever will be an important node of the industry, ? Once the marketed vaccine comes out, the pig boom is about to arrive, and then whoever has more pigs will make money.
China Merchants Securities also thought that the layout of the leading listed companies, in essence, is to buy China's most survivability, management capacity, financing capacity, resource storage of tens of thousands of pig farms, as long as they can survive, you can earn excess profits, if you can be affected by the proportion of the industry is much smaller than the industry, but also to expand, this type of company will be ushered in an important industrial opportunity of high profitability and high growth.