(ii), because the PPP project for the public, the use of public **** funds, accept public supervision, so has the characteristics of the public ****; because the government and social capital in the project is not the same, the success of the project depends on the government and social capital good cooperation, so has the characteristics of the cooperation (or balance).
Since the cycle of the project is relatively long and the structure and adjustment matters are complex, it is characterized by long-term and complexity;
Since there are many national regulations and policies on PPP, PPP projects are characterized by strong compliance requirements.
(3) The risk analysis of PPP credit is the comprehensive analysis of the three elements of government, social capital and project in combination with the above five features.
(d), as the projects have different payment methods, cooperation modes, and industries they belong to, the risk analysis of PPP projects can be reduced to the analysis of the following factors:
1. How to assess the government?
2. How to screen the social capital?
3. How to analyze the project?
4, how to analyze the risk points of each link?
5, how to determine compliance?
The purpose remains to judge the adequacy and reliability of the project's comprehensive repayment sources.
(5), for the government's assessment can be analyzed from the following perspectives:
Regional economic environment
Local government revenue
Local government solvency
Level of government governance
Because of some of the data is difficult to obtain, it can also be simplified to analyze from the following aspects:
1. Look at the level of government . Preferred provincial government, the second choice of local government, and then the county government, the county below do not do. Development zones are also the same sub-levels to see.
2, look at the government's region. Preferably in the eastern region, the second choice of the central region, and again the northwest and northeastern regions.
3, look at the classification of the city where the government. Prefer first-tier cities, second-tier cities, then third and fourth-tier cities. Do not do it in cities below the fourth line.
4, look at the government's rating. Such as China's top 100 counties and so on. National and provincial poverty-stricken counties are minus points.
5. Look at the government's financial strength. Analyze the debt rate, debt service rate, overdue debt rate, borrowing new and old debt service rate indicators.
6. Look at the government's standardization.
7. Look at the government's performance record.
You can set indicators from the above dimensions, combined with the resources of the financial institutions in their risk appetite, delineate a list of governments that are robbing to do, can do, do not do.
8, and ultimately to see whether it can be included in the budget, through the National People's Congress, enshrined in the contract.
(F), for the analysis of social capital, mainly from the following aspects:
1, professional competence
2, industry status
3, financial strength
4, cooperation experience and strengths
5, investment purpose and vision
Of these, 4 and 5 points are to consider the characteristics of PPP projects and Special requirements put forward.
Since over the years, some industry leading enterprises have been formed in some public ****service areas, they have professional ability, industry status and cooperation experience and historical performance, which can be taken as preferred targets.
Since listed companies, large central enterprises, local leading state-owned enterprises, and industry leading private enterprises have advantages in terms of social responsibility, comprehensive strength, and gaming ability with local governments, they can be taken as preferred objects.
Some of the enterprises with advantages in technology, construction, operation and management in niche market areas, though not large in scale at the moment, can also be taken as the target of key selection.
(7) As for the project itself, it is mainly analyzed in terms of the payment method, the cooperation method and the industry it belongs to:
If it is a project paid by the government, it is mainly analyzed in terms of the government's credit and the project company's ability to perform.
If the project is a user-paid project, it will mainly analyze the market revenue of the project and the performance ability of the project company.
If the project is a feasibility subsidy (government subsidy + user fee), it is necessary to analyze the government's credit, the project's market revenue and the project company's ability to perform, as well as to analyze whether the mechanism for coordinating the interests and responsibilities of all parties is perfect and balanced after the occurrence of uncertainties in the project.
Because of the government's responsibility and dominant position in project screening, social capital selection, and guaranteeing public **** project operation, representing the regional economic environment in which the project is located, the analysis of the government is still the core of the PPP project analysis.
(viii), the project's form of cooperation O&M, MC, TOT, ROT, BOT, BOO and so on.
O&M, MC way generally less demand for bank financing, not analyzed here.
BOT, BOO is a new project, the completion risk and market risk is higher, TOT, ROT is the stock of completed projects, the completion risk and market risk is lower, is a better project.
(ix), industry.
1, utilities
Generally belong to the "user pays" project, the government does not need to bear the responsibility of operating subsidies expenditure. However, the government will still bear the financial contingent expenditure responsibility. The risk is that the price of utility products is regulated, while operating costs are market-based.
2, sewage and garbage treatment and other public **** environmental protection projects
The government in this type of project generally assume the "minimum demand risk". The advantage of this type of project is that the business volume of the project is supported by historical data, and the minimum demand is easy to measure, but the design of the subsidy mechanism is more complex. This type of project has a certain degree of technical expertise, and attention should be paid to analyzing the technical qualifications and industry experience of the social capital.
3, security housing projects
Generally adopt the mode of bundled development with commercial, the risk is that the commercial part of the sales and leasing affected by the fluctuation of the real estate market, for the distribution of excess returns of the project, will also become a point of contention between the government and social capital.
There is also a government-purchased service model for security housing projects, which should be distinguished from the government's use of the BT model to avoid debt regulation.
4, transportation facilities
This type of project is generally a large investment amount, the term are very long, and can even reach more than 20 years, more BOT mode, need to pay attention to the risk of the whole life cycle.
There are generally two revenue models for such projects, one is no revenue, relying entirely on government payments; the other is part of the revenue, but requires government subsidies.
For the latter, the difficulty lies in the forecasting of revenues, as well as the confirmation of the forecasting data by the government and social capital, and the determination and adjustment of toll prices.
Also to be noted is the agreement on the government's right to intervene, as well as the risk of losing the project's exclusivity clause.
5, medical and elderly service facilities
Broad prospects, but the industry is still immature, and its early demand is difficult to accurately measure.
Supportive policies for such projects at the national level have not yet been introduced, and the impact on the project is still difficult to predict.
Belonging to soft services, the setting of service standards, the method of compliance testing, and the assessment of paid performance are not suitable for determination, and are subject to greater subjective evaluation.
6, towns and new areas of development
The scale of such projects are relatively large, the amount of investment is high, the payback period is longer, the prospect of land transfer and appreciation is uncertain, there is a risk of investment.
For the commercial part of the park to subsidize the development of infrastructure and public buildings, there are also risks in the real estate market, land management system, land auction, government platform control and other related policy risks
7, sponge city
There is a certain amount of technical content, suitable for professional firms, private enterprises have the opportunity. The scale of such projects is also relatively large, and supporting the development of towns and cities, in favor of large-scale integrated real estate park development enterprises, medium-sized enterprises mainly depends on its technology and supporting capacity.
"Sponge city" during the pilot period by the central government's financial support is greater, more government procurement service model, the scale of investment, there are bank credit business opportunities. Selecting the right government is the key.
(J), the whole process risk review points.
Since the duration of PPP projects is generally long, involving many links and complex changes in the situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk points of all aspects of the whole process.
1, the pre-project stage
Attention should be paid to reviewing whether the government and social capital parties are clear about the content, depth, and schedule requirements of the pre-project work that needs to be accomplished, as well as the technical standards and specifications that need to be adopted.
2. Project construction stage
Mainly review whether the agreement on project construction conditions, progress, quality, safety requirements, change management, actual investment identification, project acceptance, project insurance and default liability is comprehensive. Whether the risk of completion can be effectively controlled.
3. Project operation stage
Mainly focusing on the external conditions for the operation of the cooperative project, operation service standards and requirements, renewal and additional investment, service measurement, operation period insurance, government supervision, operation expenditure and default liability.
4. Transfer of Assets Phase
The main focus is on the scope of the transfer, such as assets, information, property rights, etc.; the transfer acceptance procedures; and the transfer criteria, such as the technical status of facilities and equipment, and the legal status of assets.
(xi), compliance.
PPP projects and other fixed asset project investment, but also need to have the project's own compliance elements, mainly:
1, the borrowing body, the legitimacy of the qualification
2, administrative approval and licensing, etc. (project, approval, land, water, environmental protection, energy saving, etc.)
3, the legitimacy of the purpose of the loan
4, repayment Legitimacy of the source
5, Compliance of tax subsidies
6, Completeness of dispute resolution
7, Legitimacy of business supporting documents (e.g., legitimacy of franchise agreements, project contracts, etc.)
8, Legitimacy and enforceability of guarantees
Specific compliance requirements of PPP projects, the analytical framework is as follows:
1. Who is authorized to screen and identify PPP projects?
2. What policy path should be applied to different projects?
3. Value-for-money evaluation
4. Fiscal sustainability demonstration
5. Compliance with government commitments, and whether they can be included in government debt management?
6, project initiation, determination of social capital, determination of subsidy rate, are these procedures compliant?
7, BT is not PPP?
8, the relationship between BT and the government purchased service model
9, the relationship between the government purchased service and PPP
10, how to view and prevent the compliance risk of PPP projects?