In the past 2020, the sudden COVID-19 epidemic hit the global economy like never before. Because of China's resolute epidemic prevention measures, it took only about three months to control the epidemic. China is the fastest and most effective country in economic recovery, and it is also the only large economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth.
Looking back on the performance of the world's major economies in the past year, except for China, which achieved a positive growth of 2.3%, other countries were miserable, one by one. Among them, the United States is -3. 1%, Brazil is -4.5%, Japan is -5. 1%, Germany is -5.4%, and India is -8%. Based on the global economic situation, the global economy will shrink by 3.5% in 2020.
China and the United States lead the global economy, Big bounce.
Fortunately, in 20021,the impact of the epidemic on the global economy was declining. With the global launch of COVID-19 vaccine, it has also brought good news to the global economy. Recently, people all over the world have been vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine, especially the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world. Not only is their economy the most resistant to shocks, but their vaccination speed and quantity are also the fastest and most. Therefore, China and the United States may take the lead in achieving group immunity. In this way, the two biggest engines of global economic growth will quickly return to normal and will inject endless growth momentum into the global economy.
First of all, China's economic performance in 20021year will be one of the biggest highlights of the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, China's economy experienced a negative growth of 6.8%, but in the second quarter, China's economic decline was effectively curbed, with a positive growth of 3.2%; In the third quarter, it further rose to 4.9%, while in the fourth quarter, China's economic growth rate was as high as 6.4%, exceeding the level before the outbreak. It can be expected that the positive momentum of China's economic growth in 20021year will be continuously consolidated and enhanced.
It must be noted that in 2020, China's "double-cycle" economic development pattern achieved great success, laying a solid foundation for China's economy to reach a new level in 20021year. In 2020, on the one hand, China's economy was severely impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic; On the other hand, the anti-globalization forces led by the Trump administration of the United States have risen, clamoring for decoupling from China's economy, and the trade war and science and technology war against China have been escalating. Facing the unfavorable external environment of the rise of international protectionism, the downturn of the world economy and the shrinking of the global market, the CPC Central Committee has made a major strategic deployment of "double-cycle development", that is, a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. Facts have proved that the strategic arrangement of "double-cycle development" in 2020 was a great success, which not only laid a solid foundation for the domestic market and industry, but also consolidated China's position in international trade, and even made the trade war launched by the United States against China a complete failure. In 20021year, China's economy will continue to maintain the strong development momentum of "double-cycle development" pattern, closely following the pace of 2020.
It should be emphasized that China's economy has entered a new stage of all-round and high-quality development. The new development concept of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and enjoyment" is leading the overall economic transformation and upgrading of China. New technologies, new industries and new formats emerge one after another. Modern information industries and high-tech industries such as 5G, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, clean energy, high-end medical equipment and high-end chips are becoming. The development of new technologies, industries and formats in China is in the ascendant, with great potential and unlimited market prospects. 20021year and the next few years will be the outbreak period of new technologies, new industries and new formats in China, which will inject surging momentum into the economic development of China.
In view of this, at the National "Two Sessions" held in March this year, Premier Li Keqiang announced to the world that the economic growth target set by the China government in 20021year is 6% and above. As Premier Li Keqiang emphasized, since China's GDP has exceeded1000 trillion RMB, the GDP growth of 6% in 202 1 year is equivalent to the growth of 8% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Obviously, the economic growth rate of 202 1 year of 6% and above set by China government is a very active and prudent goal.
Secondly, the United States made full use of the hegemonic position of the US dollar, and made the US economy rebound rapidly through a large-scale rescue plan and fiscal stimulus plan. Although the United States is deeply troubled by the epidemic in 2020, the economic recession in the United States is better than expected, with a decrease of only 3. 1%, far better than other major economies in the world except China. Why can the US economy be better than expected? The fundamental reason is that the U.S. dollar has greatly helped the U.S. economy, because it has the dominant position in the world currency, is the most popular settlement currency and reserve currency in the world, and is the only hard currency that covers the whole world. It is to make full use of the hegemonic position of the dollar that the United States began to print money, on the one hand, it distributed hundreds of billions of dollars in cash benefits to American nationals, on the other hand, it injected trillions of dollars in relief funds and liquidity into American enterprises and markets, thus reviving the troubled American economy.
In 2020, when Trump came to power, the United States has released a huge rescue plan and rescue plan of 4 trillion US dollars. Biden inherited the Trump administration's so-called relief and stimulus policy as soon as he took office. On March 1 1, Biden officially signed a new bailout bill with a scale of $65,438 +0.9 trillion. Since March 2020, the U.S. government has distributed up to. In fact, after Biden signed the $65,438 +0.9 trillion stimulus plan, many international institutions immediately raised the economic growth forecast of the United States in 20021year.
However, the dollar drama is still behind, and the Biden administration has also decided to launch an economic recovery plan with a scale of 3-4 trillion US dollars. This $2.25 trillion economic recovery plan focuses on infrastructure reform issues such as road and bridge reconstruction in the United States and network broadband expansion in rural areas. The investment plan bill was signed by Biden at the end of March. The remaining $2 trillion is expected to be announced in April, and the second bill will be finalized, mainly for issues related to child care measures and medical care subsidies. According to the data released by the Federal Reserve, from 2020 to now, the national subsidy plan and economic stimulus plan announced and prepared by the United States will release up to $23 trillion in basic liquid currency to the market within one year. Some market analysts pointed out that even if all Americans don't work, there is no doubt that the American economy will achieve positive growth in 20021year only through the US government to start printing money.
Looking forward to 20021,major international organizations are optimistic about the global economic prospects. At the beginning of this year 1, IMF indicated that the global economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2002 1, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than last year's forecast. Among them, China's economic growth forecast is ahead of all western economies. Specifically, in 20021year, China's economic growth rate was 8. 1%, France was 5.5%, the United States was 5. 1%, Britain was 4.5%, Germany was 3.5%, Brazil was 3.6%, and Japan was 3.1. Three months later, the International Monetary Fund released the World Economic Outlook report on April 6, predicting that the global economy will grow by 6% in 2002 1 year, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the predicted value of1year. At the same time, the IMF predicts that China's economy will grow by 8.4% in 2002 1 year, which is 0.3 percentage point higher than the predicted value in1year, and China will become the biggest contributor to global economic growth. The IMF also predicts that the United States and India will be the second and third largest contributors to global economic growth, and Japan and Germany will enter the top five. The International Monetary Fund says there are more and more signs that the economic crisis is coming to an end.
Global inflation is rolling in.
When Big bounce appears in the global economy on 202 1, it will be accompanied by global inflation, and the culprit is the US dollar. As mentioned above, from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, the relief plan and economic stimulus plan launched by the US government have been continuing. The American government has no money. where is the money to come from?
The U.S. government can only do the same thing, take advantage of the hegemonic position of the dollar in the international monetary system, start the printing press, and issue a large number of dollars to the world. In this way, the United States not only successfully transferred the crisis to other countries and regions, but also harvested the development achievements of other countries and regions.
So far, the United States' practice of playing with dollar hegemony has been tried and tested, which has caused great disasters to all countries in the world. However, since no international currency can challenge the status of the US dollar at present, the whole world can only watch the US dollar openly plunder the world's wealth. Some analysts pointed out that the banknotes printed in the United States in the past year are equivalent to the sum of banknotes printed since the history of banknote printing.
As the US dollar is a global hard currency, it is the most important international settlement currency, international reserve currency and international circulation currency. Therefore, the United States began to print money and release dollars to the world without restraint, which will inevitably lead to many serious consequences, and the most direct consequence is global inflation. In fact, for the rescue and economic stimulus plans launched by the United States one after another, while the market is gratified that Big bounce will appear in the American economy, it also shows deep anxiety and worry, and global inflation has been rolling in. Summers, a former US Treasury secretary and a professor at Harvard University, believes that a large-scale stimulus policy may trigger "inflationary pressure that has never been seen in a generation". He predicted that the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates from 2022 to "cool" the economy and curb inflation, which is earlier than the previous forecast of 2023.
In view of the wanton printing of money in the United States, the whole world is also starting printing presses. It is reported that this year, the printed cash in the world will be converted into hundreds of trillions of dollars. Such a huge amount of cash printed by countries will flock to the market. Some of the funds used to help our citizens will flow to the stock market, and the other part will flow to the consumer goods market. Other bailout funds or economic stimulus funds will flow to raw materials, minerals, real estate, company equity and industrial products. It is reported that only US$ 2 trillion in infrastructure projects will flow to the international raw material market, which means that the prices of building materials such as cement, steel, copper and aluminum will rise sharply. Some analysts pointed out that in the next 5- 10 years, the prices of products such as cement, steel, copper and aluminum will rise by at least 1-3 times.
The world is beginning to enter an era when everything is expensive. First, the stock market led the gains. However, it is the rich who benefit from the skyrocketing stock market, but ordinary people can only hope that the stock market will sigh, and the gap between the rich and the poor will widen again. According to statistics, in 2020, the total assets of the world's richest 500 people increased by 1.8 trillion US dollars, with an increase rate of 3 1%, which is the largest annual increase in the eight-year history of the index.
Second, commodities have skyrocketed. From April 2020 to February 20021year, the prices of copper, iron and silver in the international market rose by 67%, 94% and 82% respectively. The price of crude oil once approached $70 a barrel, the highest in the past two years. The crude oil index rose 170%, and the energy index rose 170. In the past six months, the price of steel has more than doubled, and the prices of iron ore and nickel have also hit new highs for many years.
As far as the China market is concerned, since mid-2020, the prices of mainland commodities have continued to rise at an alarming rate. Over the past six months, copper prices have risen by nearly 40%, paper by 50%, plastics by 35%, aluminum by nearly 40%, iron and glass by more than 30%, zinc alloy and stainless steel by nearly 50%, and IC by as much as 100%. Because energy and commodities are the basic products of the economy, the rise in the prices of these products will inevitably have a chain reaction, which will eventually be transmitted to the entire consumer market.
Third, the price of consumer goods in daily life will rise, and the cost of food, clothing, housing and transportation will become more and more expensive. According to World Bank data, in 2020, global food prices will rise by more than 20%, and international sorghum prices will rise by more than 80%. After entering 202 1, the prices of most agricultural products are still on the rise. The international food price index compiled by FAO has been rising for nine consecutive months, reaching the highest level since 20 14 years, in which the prices of sorghum, corn and wheat have increased greatly, the price of soybeans has increased by more than 60% in the past year, and the price of rice has increased by 1 1.
In addition, the real estate market in many countries in the world, especially in the United States and Britain, is in full swing, and the real estate price is rising. According to the report of American real estate agents, in September 2020, the median residential sales in the United States increased by 65,438+03% year-on-year, reaching $365,438 +0.9. /kloc-in October, the median house price in the United States rose to $334,000, the highest annual increase since July 2065,438+03, and the average house only stayed in the market for 27 days. It is estimated that in 20021year, American house prices will increase by 5.7% on the basis of 2020. At the same time, in recent months, the rise in international transportation prices has led to a shortage of containers, which has led to an increase in the cost of imported goods in various countries. Global inflation has hit some emerging market countries and regions. For example, the inflation rate in Brazil jumped to 5.2% in February this year, which was about twice that of six months ago.
The global financial market will be in chaos.
In 20021year, in addition to global inflation, Big bounce will be accompanied by another major phenomenon, that is, the global financial market is bound to be more turbulent.
As mentioned above, the huge amount of US dollars released has formed a surging trend in the international financial market. For other countries except the United States, if any country imitates the United States to print money and release water, it will lead to serious inflation and soaring prices. Even if its currency carries a sack of tens of billions of banknotes, it can't buy a piece of bread, as Zimbabwe did in 2009. But the United States is different, because the United States has the hegemony of the dollar, and the dollar has a unique hard currency status in the international monetary system. In this way, the US dollar bills printed by the United States are for their own use, but the consequences will be borne by the whole world.
The wanton release of dollars has begun to affect the global economy. Some market participants pointed out that at present, the US dollar is facing the biggest challenge and confidence crisis since the establishment of the Federal Reserve 19 13. In order to avoid the possible depreciation of the dollar, all countries and international organizations in the world are trying their best to avoid the possible risks brought by the dollar. Even European countries, including some allies of the United States, and more and more emerging market countries are preparing for the dollar to lose its status as an international hard currency one day. It is in this context that many monetary plans have been introduced to replace dollar settlement and as a means of reserve. Such as the development of digital currency, currency swap and gold settlement. , and gradually formed a worldwide dollarization wave. The most striking thing is that 50% of Sino-Russian trade has been settled in rubles and RMB, not in dollars. 46% of Russia's trade with the EU also uses the euro, and 18% uses the ruble.
Of course, because the hegemonic position of the dollar was not formed in one day, the hegemonic position of the dollar will continue to exist in the short to medium term. In fact, the U.S. government is well aware that the proliferation of dollars is unpopular, and the United States has also seen the formation of a worldwide dollarization wave. Therefore, it is impossible for the US government to sit idly by and watch the US dollar lose its hegemony, or even tolerate the rise of other currencies and threaten its status. Now, on the one hand, the US government will print money without restraint to maintain the normal operation of the US government and help the American people, and even implement a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan. On the other hand, it will continue to maintain the hegemonic position of the US dollar and let the United States enjoy the seigniorage income brought by the US dollar as a global hard currency forever.
It can be predicted that, in order to stabilize the dollar in the case of the flood of dollars, first of all, the US government and the Federal Reserve will follow the practice from 2009 to 20 14, on the one hand, raising interest rates in vain, on the other hand, releasing the signal of the Fed's "shrinking table" when the US economy does not have the conditions to raise interest rates at all.
As we all know, since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States in 2007, the Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate to the ultra-low interest rate range through several rounds of interest rate cuts. Especially in 2008, the financial tsunami broke out in the United States, and the American economy suffered heavy losses, which forced the Federal Reserve to maintain a zero interest rate policy of 0%-0.25% for seven years from 2008 to 20 15.
However, in order to stabilize the international financial market's confidence in the US dollar, from 2009 to 20 14, the Federal Reserve kept announcing that the United States was about to raise interest rates, but the international financial market only heard the sound of stairs, and no one came down. It was not until 20 15 that the Fed really started to raise interest rates. At the same time, the Fed has never stopped releasing the signal to the outside world that it will start to reduce its balance sheet, but in fact, the United States did not withdraw from the quantitative easing policy until 20 14, and the balance sheet reduction did not officially begin until 20 17. This is why the United States influenced the international financial market through propaganda in the early days and shook the attitude of international investors to other international currencies and investment tools.
It should be pointed out that in order to maintain the hegemonic position of the US dollar and attack its competitors, it is not excluded that the US government will adopt inferior and indiscriminate practices and create conflicts or even local wars in some parts of the world through military means. In fact, a very important reason why dollar hegemony has been maintained is that American military forces have global strike capability, because after World War II, the United States established more than 150 military bases around the world, covering every corner of the world and becoming the patron saint of American interests.
However, judging from the situation in the past two decades, the US military power in the world is not only protecting the interests of the United States, but also deliberately undermining the interests of others. In order to prevent possible competitors, the United States spared no effort to create regional shocks and launch local wars. For example, it successfully blocked the challenge of the euro to the dollar through the Kosovo war.
On the one hand, the international community and investors are worried that the dollar may depreciate, so they dare not avoid it. On the other hand, the US government will adopt various means and measures to maintain the hegemonic position of the US dollar. In this way, the international financial market is likely to fluctuate violently. 202 1 will have the following situations: when everyone thinks that the US stock market will plummet or the US dollar will depreciate sharply, under the operation of the US government and the Federal Reserve, the US stock market may rise unexpectedly, and the US dollar index may even gap; When the market expects gold to be the best hedging tool for investing in the gold market, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, which will make the gold market turbulent and the price of gold will fall instead of rising. In the case that the proliferation of dollars is not credible, it is really possible for the United States to create local conflicts and wars in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and even East Asia by military means, causing great turmoil in the international financial market, thus trying to make the dollar a safe haven for international capital.
In a word, the international financial market in 20021year will be full of uncertainties and risks.
(The author is editor-in-chief of Hong Kong Economic Herald)