Do you remember the billion-dollar bet that caught the attention of the business community five years ago? Why did Dong Mingzhu win the billion-dollar bet and lose the future?
At that time, the CCTV China's economic man of the year selection award site, as a network of business representatives of the United States CEO Lei Jun to Dong Mingzhu set up a war book: please the people of the country to testify that, within five years, if our sales to beat Gree, Dong Mingzhu Dong always lose to me on the line of one dollar.
Mr. Dong is the head of the manufacturing industry, of course, the family is not angry, on the spot retorted that gambling on gambling 1 billion U.S. dollars.
In this way, one billion gambling began, Mr. Dong and Rebus's every move began to be the attention of the outside world. In the blink of an eye, the five-year deal is coming up, and the discussion about who wins and who loses is getting even more heated.
A few days ago (Dec. 2), Mr. Dong was interviewed during the 2018 Annual Meeting of Chinese Business Leaders, saying that he basically won the bet with Lei Jun.
I think her basis for this comes roughly from
First, the power of performance in the third quarter of this year is higher than that of Gale.
GREE's revenue reached 148.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4 billion yuan.11% over the same period last year, net profit reached 21.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6 billion yuan.59% over the same period last year; U.S. revenue reached 130.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4 billion yuan.1% over the same period last year, gross profit reached 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3 billion yuan.6% over the same period last year, and adjusted profit reached 6.7 billion yuan, an increase of 39% over the same period last year. 39 percent over the same period a year earlier .
That is to say, the name is less than 69.5 billion yuan from the 200 billion yuan of revenue, according to the name of the growth rate, less than a month will be difficult to counterattack. Gree is different, Dong Mingzhu directly said:Gree 2018 revenue is expected to reach 200 billion yuan.
Second, Gree's net profit is higher than that of Valley.
According to the financial reports published by the two companies in the first half of this year, Gree Electric's net profit of 12.806 billion yuan, Gree Group has an advantage in cost management, the name of the net profit of only 3.816 billion yuan.
Obviously, from the point of view of pure profit, the name and Gree there is a big difference.
Why did Dong Mingzhu win the 1 billion dollar bet and lose the future? Dong Mingzhu has full confidence, but there are still people on the side of Lei Jun. There are also two points based on:
First, the market price of the name is now more than Gree.
As of November 8, the U.S. market price of this year's offering reached 267.26 billion yuan, exceeding Gree's 230.4 billion yuan market price.
Second, the name revenue growth rate far exceeds Gree.
The development of the name in these five years is encouraging, in 2013, the name of the sales of only 26.583 billion yuan, Gree has reached 120.043 billion yuan, which is equivalent to only 22% of Gree, but by 2015, the name of the revenue has been equivalent to 68% of Gree, by 2017, has been equivalent to 77% of Gree, by this year, Gree and the name of the revenue are expected to be virtually indistinguishable .
So, in terms of growth rate tendencies, Gree is steadily rising, but the name has exploded spectacularly, arguably surpassing Gree.
In fact, from the level of data, it is difficult to distinguish between the two sides. Previously Dong Mingzhu said:In fact, Lei Jun's bet itself is meaningless. Because Gree is the real economy, so the name is the network, is asset-light. The two are not comparable.
It is true that one is an Internet-modeled start-up and the other is a traditional manufacturer, which is essentially a competition between two industrial models.
So, we'd better evaluate their long-term earning power based on their money-making data.
So, how to evaluate it? Look at it from two perspectives.
First, from the strategic level, both have diversified around their core business, but the development is different.
First of all, Gree is the whole industry chain, since gambling, Gree has configured advanced equipment, life varieties and communication equipment and other sectors, into the cell phone, automobile, chips and other fields, through intelligent equipment and other industries to the medical and food industry expansion.
But this diversity of the road is not smooth, Gree comes from the traditional entity industry, business structure is stable, do not venture into the style to a certain extent hindered the progress of the diversity of Gree
The second, the cell phone business is not better.
The cell phone is one of the most promising products of the intelligent home control center, Gree's cell phone business is stranded, meaning that the whole industry chain lacks important link products.
In contrast to the name, the same development of the ecological chain, the smartphone market into a state of stagnation, but succeeded in the development of the customer unit price is higher for everyone's power to become the name of the tool to increase revenue. For example, the name TV for three consecutive months to become the first in the Chinese market.
It is worth mentioning that in July this year, Xiaomi also launched the U.S. Internet air conditioning, direct front pk Gree.
As Lei Jun said, millet is essentially a cell phone, smart hardware, IOT platform as the core of the Internet company. Its model is to use cost-effective hardware products to enlist users, retain users, from a large number of users to obtain network service revenue.
As a result, overall revenue diversification can be seen . From the data of the first quarter of 2018, the revenue from the sale of cell phones accounted for 67% of the total revenue.5%, the revenue from the sale of IoT and consumer lifestyle products accounted for 22%.7%, and the revenue from network services was 7.2 billion, 9%.
Geli's less-than-stellar main revenue continues to depend on its air conditioning business. According to Gree Electric's 2018 semi-annual report, in the first half of 2018, the air conditioning business still accounted for more than 80% of Gree's total revenue, but the proportion of the expected smart equipment business fell to 0.
After all, I think both Gree and Valley are the winners of this casino. In the end, whether it is scale, marketing, innovation or revenue, both companies have made great breakthroughs .
In the context of the integration of the Internet and manufacturing, one to actively embrace the Internet, one to be committed to become a Netflix Mr. Dong, the other to tie up the manufacturing industry themselves and configure the U.S. ecological chain.
I think the most valuable thing about this casino is that both companies have given us examples of the potential of the Internet and the possibilities of traditional industrial operations.