Reason: In the balance of payments, we have long been determined that the balance of payments is basically balanced with a slight surplus. A large surplus in the balance of payments is not what we deliberately seek. This situation is caused by a series of objective and complex reasons, both international and domestic. From the international perspective, as the world's economies continue to be closely linked, in order to seek a more optimal allocation of resources, developed countries and newly industrialized countries in the process of industrial restructuring will occur in the transfer of some industries and products to foreign countries. And China in order to adapt to the development of the international form, and constantly increase the pace of opening up to the outside world, at the same time with cheap labor costs, increasingly perfect infrastructure and preferential laws and policies, and gradually become a major destination for the transfer of the international manufacturing industry for a number of consecutive years in the world's forefront. At the same time, due to the underdevelopment of the domestic financial market, domestic enterprises have resorted to financing from overseas capital markets, which has also increased capital inflows. And the development of foreign direct investment will also promote the growth of exports, since 1992, the average annual growth rate of foreign capital inflows into China has remained at about 28.9%. Domestically, the following reasons are mainly responsible for China's persistently large surplus. First, strong domestic demand is sluggish. China has a tradition of high savings, and in the stage of institutional transformation due to the reform of the social security system and other reforms have not yet been fully in place, residents are more willing to spend on preventive savings for old age, health care and education. At the same time, domestic savings into investment channels are not smooth, the development of the financial market is relatively lagging behind, resulting in enterprises have to rely more on their own savings. Second, for a long time, China has adopted an asymmetric balance of payments policy that encourages exports and foreign capital inflows. In terms of institutional arrangements, obviously encourage exports, limit imports; encourage foreign capital inflow, limit capital outflow from cross-border capital inflow and outflow, inflow management is looser, outflow management is more stringent. This policy and institutional arrangements make capital outflows subject to control, outflow channels less, resulting in the formation of net capital account inflow than net outflow pattern. The massive influx of foreign capital not only boosted China's capital and financial project surplus, but also increased the growing proportion of foreign-funded enterprises in China's exports. Third, the processing trade-based export mode. Foreign direct investment is mainly concentrated in labor-intensive, low-tech industries and fields, mainly in processing trade exports, and processing trade export mode and the increase in the number of trade exports is a clear positive correlation. Especially in recent years, the incremental and growth level of foreign direct investment has increased, and the number of exports of foreign-invested enterprises has gradually replaced that of domestic enterprises. Therefore, to a certain extent, the existence of the processing trade mode inevitably leads to a trade surplus. This is evident from the continued large inflow of foreign capital in recent years and trade items did not appear in deficit.
Impact: First, the current account balance indicates whether a country is a net borrower of funds from the rest of the world or a net lender of funds to the rest of the world. A current account surplus means that the country has provided financing to foreign countries, and a current account deficit means that foreign countries have provided financing to the country. And our current account surplus for many years shows that China is actually a net exporter of capital, which is contrary to the economic background of our country is in the stage of economic take-off, still need a lot of money to build.
Second, the balance of payments continued to large surplus increased the complexity of macro-control. Continued large net inflow of foreign exchange to the domestic injection of large amounts of money, the domestic banking system liquidity, excess liquidity, increasing the difficulty of monetary control operations, directly affecting the flexibility and effectiveness of macroeconomic control. This affects the long-term stability of prices at the same time, but also easy to make a large flow of funds to fixed asset investment and real estate, stock market and so on, increasing investment rebound and asset bubble pressure.
Third, the economic growth of foreign dependence, increasing the possibility of external shocks. The domestic economy relies more on the expansion of exports and investment expansion. If there are significant changes in the external economy, China's exports as the main growth engine of economic growth will be affected. And the rapid growth of the trade surplus and the rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves, easy to trigger trade friction between China and the countries and regions concerned.
Fourth, China's balance of payments surplus has a certain vulnerability. The current balance of payments surplus mainly from trade, a large part of them from the processing trade, and foreign-invested enterprises, mainly low technology content, the lack of independent brands and core technology, low value-added, mainly some high input, high consumption, high pollution goods exports, which increases domestic resources and environmental pressure, is not conducive to the transformation of economic growth and structural adjustment. At the same time, foreign-invested enterprises undistributed and distributed unremitted profits and other potential foreign liabilities are large. Once the future of the international financial market in the larger turbulence, the market is expected to reverse, cross-border capital outflow concentrated in large quantities, may intensify the impact on the domestic market.
Countermeasures: In the domestic economy, first of all, the key is to correctly handle the relationship between investment and consumption, domestic demand and external demand, and strive to expand consumer demand. China has the world's most promising market, expanding domestic demand, open up the domestic market will be China's economic development in the long term. Otherwise, China's "double surplus" problem will not be fundamentally solved. China should reasonably control the growth of investment and strive to optimize its investment structure; focus on increasing consumption, especially among farmers, to better meet the multi-level and diversified consumption needs of urban and rural residents. It is predicted that, through the promotion of the construction of new rural areas, total retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas will increase by an average of more than 400 billion yuan annually during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, contributing more than two percentage points to the gross domestic product (GDP). It is also necessary to speed up the establishment of a new social security system, strengthen consumer confidence and guide consumer spending expectations. Second, we should carry out structural adjustment of the import and export industry to improve core competitiveness. An important reason for the current account surplus is the imbalance in the structure of import and export industries, exports are concentrated in labor- and resource-intensive industries, the products lack core technological competitiveness, and are characterized by low prices and large volumes in the international arena with low profit margins and are also susceptible to anti-dumping lawsuits. Lack of imports of China's real urgent need for advanced technology and equipment, industrial restructuring of developed countries only as a manufacturing base in China, the real advanced technology and equipment research and development in developed countries at home. Now China's foreign technology dependence has reached 50%, more than 60% of equipment investment depends on imports, the contribution rate of domestic technological innovation is only 39%. Therefore, China must now adjust the industrial structure of import and export, limiting high energy and resource-consuming exports; and incorporating environmental protection, safety, social security and other factors into the export costs of enterprises; developing product core technology creativity, improving the independent competitiveness of enterprises, and maximizing profits on the basis of a stable export volume. Avoid excessive dependence on foreign investment and technology, and avoid falling into the "comparative advantage trap" that leads to "impoverished growth". In terms of the foreign-related economy, we will continue to implement the "going out" strategy and study ways to further expand our outward investment. China has taken a series of measures to guide domestic enterprises to invest overseas. The Government should further improve the relevant regulations and policies in support of enterprises' "going out" and provide them with appropriate preferential policies and credit support, so as to provide a better environment and conditions for enterprises to "go out". In addition, the control of capital inflow should be strengthened, and the focus should be changed from quantity to quality. In China's domestic capital is not a lack of circumstances, the introduction of foreign direct investment can fill China's huge technology gap, employment gap, market gap, tax gap, so the net inflow of foreign direct investment is still necessary, but should be gradually canceled its super-national treatment, to prevent its crowding out effect on domestic investment. The key now is to strengthen the monitoring of short-term capital flows, curb the inflow of speculative hot money, step up anti-money laundering efforts, and regulate capital flows through price signals such as interest rates, rents, and tax rates. On the financial front, various price signals, including the exchange rate, have been gradually brought into play to leverage the balance of payments. In accordance with the principles of "proactive, gradual and controllable", we will further improve the managed floating exchange rate, gradually increase the flexibility of the exchange rate, vigorously develop the foreign exchange market, improve its functions of resource allocation, price discovery and risk avoidance, and urge and guide enterprises to enhance their awareness of exchange rate risks, and actively learn to use various types of financial instruments to manage risks. In addition, it is necessary to steadily promote the marketization of interest rates, rationalize the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and enhance the independence of monetary policy.