China Merchants Strategy pointed out that, with reference to the industrial enterprise profitability indicators, in July and August the total profit of industrial enterprises month-on-month growth rate has climbed rapidly to nearly 20%, due to the industrial enterprises and non-financial listed companies, the constituents have a certain degree of overlap, and the two profit growth rate of the history of the value of the almost maintain a similar trend of change; therefore, in the industrial enterprise profits and other high-frequency indicators under the guidance of the three-quarter Therefore, under the guidance of high-frequency indicators such as industrial profits, non-financial A-share profits will maintain an accelerating upward trend.
According to the consistent comparable caliber measurement, (i.e., the sample of the 2020 three-quarter earnings measurement is the listed companies that have already announced their earnings), the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of non-financial A-shares' net profit in the three-quarter report of 2020 is 22.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit is 35.2%. (Note: here measured samples for the current has published three-quarter earnings forecast of listed companies, due to the limited availability of samples, so the measured value and the real value of a certain deviation) small and medium-sized board and GEM performance continues to maintain the trend of improvement, the main board performance began to accelerate the signs of repair.
It is expected that all major industries will show different degrees of improvement in profits.
From the point of view of the degree of profit improvement and sustainability, the midstream manufacturing plate profit improvement is the most obvious, in which the electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, automotive and other industries have continued since the second quarter of the rapid upward trend in profits, and the corresponding important industrial products such as photovoltaic, excavators, heavy trucks, passenger cars, etc., to maintain a higher year-on-year growth rate.
Secondly, the TMT plate profit growth rate is also further upward, mainly due to electronics, media and other sectors to bring more profit increment.
Pharmaceuticals (medical devices, etc.) and consumer services plate performance to maintain a steady trend of improvement, real estate after the cycle of consumption, such as home appliances, light manufacturing, etc. began to release performance. It is expected that the resource goods plate profit repair strength is relatively weak, part of the product price upward will bring support for performance improvement.
It is worth noting that, in the role of counter-cyclical regulation continued to force, since the second quarter of the performance of the utility sector performance, is expected to be able to maintain a higher growth in the third quarter.
The third quarterly report performance is better and the industry boom degree is higher in the field -
1. Utilities of various subsections of the plate have achieved a good performance, electricity (raw material costs down), water (rainwater increase), environmental protection engineering (infrastructure projects put in the field) have achieved a relatively good revenue and profit growth. Profit growth.
2. Concentrated more photovoltaic, wind power and other enterprises in the new energy sector continued the trend of sustained improvement in performance since the second quarter.
3. Automotive industry chain: passenger car and new energy vehicle production and sales have bottomed out, the plate earnings in the third quarter of the rapid rebound, vehicle manufacturers and the industry chain upstream of the parts and components of the company (such as tires, precision devices, engines, etc.) fundamentals have been improved to varying degrees.
4. Consumer electronics plate earnings accelerated improvement in the third quarter.
5. Benefit from the landing of infrastructure projects, heavy trucks, construction machinery and other sectors of the boom continued to rise.
Broad industry: midstream manufacturing & gt; TMT, pharmaceuticals, consumer & gt; resource goods, financial real estate
It is expected that the profit of each broad industry will be improved to varying degrees. From the point of view of the degree of profit improvement and sustainable perspective, the midstream manufacturing plate profit improvement is most obvious, including electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, automotive and other industries have continued since the second quarter of the rapid upward trend in profits, corresponding to important industrial products such as photovoltaic, excavators, heavy trucks, passenger cars and other production and sales to maintain a higher year-on-year growth rate. Secondly, the TMT sector profit growth rate is also further upward, mainly due to electronics, media and other sectors to bring more incremental profits. Pharmaceuticals (medical devices, etc.) and consumer services sector performance to maintain a steady improvement in the trend, real estate after the cycle of consumption, such as home appliances, light manufacturing, etc. began to release performance. It is expected that the resource goods plate profit repair strength is relatively weak, part of the product price upward will bring support for performance improvement.
It is worth noting that, in the role of counter-cyclical regulation continued to force, since the second quarter of the performance of the utilities sector, is expected to be able to maintain a higher growth in the third quarter, mainly due to the power (raw material costs down), water (rainwater increase), environmental protection engineering (infrastructure projects put in the field) have achieved relatively good revenue and profit growth.
Better performance and upward boom: automotive industry chain/utilities/photovoltaic wind power and other new energy/infrastructure industry chain
Automotive industry chain
Domestic automotive industry is gradually recovering, passenger car and new energy vehicle production and sales have bottomed out and warmed up. （The basic situation of the whole automobile factory and the parts and components of the upstream industry chain (such as tires, precision devices, engines, etc.) has improved to varying degrees.
Since the third quarter, new energy vehicle production and sales are also in rapid improvement, the corresponding battery plate performance is also relatively good. New energy automobile is one of the few industries with certainty of growth space, recently the State Council executive meeting adopted the "new energy automobile industry development plan", which encourages the development of vehicle operating system, power battery and other innovations.
Background: Since July, the A-share automotive sector has continued to rise. In the super-expected "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" stimulation, superimposed on the valuation of the complementary rise, some analysts shouted "automotive investment is not line to the midfield, but only just opened the curtain".
Since the second half of the year, China's automobile market has continued to recover, September sales were higher than expected, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" full color.
The plate look, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data show that China's auto sales in September totaled 2.565 million units, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year. As of September, automobile production and sales have shown growth for six consecutive months, of which sales have been five consecutive months growth rate of more than 10%.
One of the most striking is that the epidemic after the local introduction of new energy vehicles to support the policy of the background, the month of new energy vehicle production and sales were set in September record - were completed 136,000 and 138,000, respectively, an increase of 48% year-on-year growth and 67.7%, an increase of 28.9% and 26.2%, respectively. 26.2%.
Haitong Securities believes that, according to the development of this trend, the future sales structure of the automotive industry and the industry pattern is expected to continue to optimize the electrification and intelligence will continue to contribute to the incremental increase in the automotive industry this year is expected to be "better than the market".
CRE Securities believes that automotive investment has not reached the midway point, but has just begun to formally open the curtain. The overall sales of the Chinese car market during the National Day is better, after the epidemic so far, the overall sales rebound trend is obvious, and is expected to plate earnings in the third quarter will be a substantial repair.
Taking into account the July-August growth rate of total automobile profits above the scale has reached 78%, 38%, CRE Securities expects the automobile plate will give birth to more super-expected three-quarterly reports to promote the market expectation to further repair.
New energy: photovoltaic, wind power
The new energy sector, which concentrates on more photovoltaic and wind power companies, has continued the trend of continuous improvement in performance since the second quarter.
Wind power: the industry as a whole to maintain the rapid development trend, wind farm construction accelerated, the industry capacity to enhance, and drive the industry chain upstream and downstream demand is strong. Wind power equipment plate part of the company's third quarter earnings growth rate compared to the second quarter growth rate to further expand the first three quarters of earnings and even doubled growth.
Photovoltaic: Since the second half of this year, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a situation of rising prices. On the one hand, the relative shortage of supply-side silicon, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic glass prices have risen significantly; on the other hand, the third and fourth quarters are the peak seasons for overseas PV demand, and the number of PV exports has remained at a relatively high level, so PV-listed companies' performance is also relatively bright.
Background: The leader's proposal to "achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060" is China's solemn commitment to the international community.
However, the proportion of fossil fuels in China's electricity mix is still very high. The proportion of electricity in China's primary energy consumption is less than 30%. The path to carbon neutrality is a difficult one.
In this regard, the 2020 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference held on October 14th released the "Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy", which proposes that, in order to achieve the purpose of the initial convergence with the goal of carbon neutrality, in the "14th Five-Year Plan", the wind power must be set up with the development of national strategies for carbon neutrality: to ensure that an average of 50 million kilowatts or more of new installations per year. The wind power is a new generation of more than 50 million kilowatts per year.
After 2025, China's average annual installed capacity of wind power should not be less than 60 million kilowatts, and by 2030 it will reach at least 800 million kilowatts, and by 2060 it will reach at least 3 billion kilowatts.
The declaration also said that governments should increase support for offshore wind power and other key technology areas, and provide the necessary policy support for the construction of the most cost-effective wind power.
The face of offshore wind power "three high" (high investment costs, high subsidized tariffs, high construction technology and risk) characteristics, the industry has two views: one is that 2022 offshore wind power can be achieved at parity; the other point of view that offshore wind power parity at least 5 years later.
A share wind power plate should soar.
Infrastructure industry chain: heavy trucks, construction machinery, etc.
Construction machinery: starting in the fourth quarter of last year, the speed of the approval of infrastructure projects is rapidly improving, and in the first half of the counter-cyclical regulation of the continued strength of the background, the approval of infrastructure projects to further increase the code, at the same time, the completion of the amount of investment in infrastructure has also appeared to be a rapid rebound. Accompanied by the downstream infrastructure projects continue to land, lifting machinery, concrete machinery, excavators and other core products, demand for a significant increase, especially excavator sales growth remained at a high level, the engineering machinery boom has been sustained upgrading of its performance to improve the certainty is very strong.
Heavy trucks: infrastructure counter-cyclical regulation, heavy truck unit price increase and sales volume is expected to improve, and in the medium and long term the industry growth pivot has been the probability of upward shift, the corresponding leading enterprises will usher in the core product volume and price opportunities.
Background: driven by infrastructure demand, heavy truck sales exceeded last year's annual sales, excavator sales in September surged 65%
Guangfa Securities pointed out that since the second half of the medium and long term loan data continued to recover reflecting the substantial improvement in the credit conditions of the entity enterprises, meaning that the downstream equipment side of the positive boost, there are two main paths - (1) the first is to improve the quality of life, and (2) the second is to improve the quality of life, and (3) the third is to improve the quality of life. -
(1) infrastructure, real estate, manufacturing start-up for the downstream construction machinery;
(2) manufacturing capacity expansion and capacity replacement for the demand-driven field of broad automation equipment.
The current round of recovery in corporate medium- and long-term loan data began to inflection point in September 2019 and has lasted for 12 months now.
This trend is reflected in the infrastructure-related construction machinery, which is reflected in the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in January-September exceeding last year's annual sales, and the sales of excavators in January-September increased by 32% year-on-year.
According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in September, 25 excavator companies included in the statistics *** sales of excavators 26,000 units, an increase of 65%; of which 23,000 domestic units, an increase of 71%; exports of 3436 units, an increase of 31%.
January-September 2020, *** sales of 237,000 units of excavators, an increase of 32%; 213,000 units of domestic, an increase of 33%; exports of 24,000 units, an increase of 22%.
According to the first commercial vehicle network disclosure, September heavy truck sales of 136,000 units, 63% year-on-year, 78% of the previous value, an increase of 4.7%, into the peak season in September, the domestic heavy truck sales ring improved. 2020 January-September cumulative sales of the heavy truck market (1.22 million units), has succeeded in exceeding the last year's annual sales (1.17 million units).
Huabao Securities said that the continued recovery of the domestic economy, the growth rate of freight volume rebounded, domestic freight volume in September increased by 4.8% year-on-year. Highway freight continues to Reply superimposed overload control, resulting in strong demand for tractor-trailers, supporting the high degree of boom in the heavy truck market.
Guangfa Securities said, enterprise medium and long-term loan growth rate as one of the forward-looking indicators of the demand for construction machinery, rapid growth in medium and long-term loan for the subsequent demand for construction machinery provides a solid foundation, excavators and trucks and other construction machinery industry boom is expected to continue to improve.
Utilities: environmental engineering, thermal power, hydropower
Utilities each sub-sector has achieved good performance. For environmental engineering and services sector, in the role of counter-cyclical regulation continues to force, according to the national investment project online approval platform, the first half of the infrastructure project approval of the investment amount to achieve double growth, of which about 60% of the investment flow to water conservancy, the environment and public **** facilities management business, so the environmental protection engineering and services sector, some of the companies said that the number of projects operating increased so that the operating income increased significantly.
Thermal power and hydropower sector earnings also showed significant improvement, the former mainly benefited from lower raw material coal prices and thus increased profits, the latter is to benefit from more rain to make power generation increase.
Consumer electronics
The third quarter of the consumer electronics sector earnings accelerated improvement. Due to wearable smart equipment, three and four quarters is often the peak season of consumer electronics, wearable smart equipment (such as headphones), smart phones and other industry sales to maintain faster growth.
Chemicals: compound fertilizer, pesticides, refining and chemical integration, plastics, rubber
2020 since the beginning of the year since corn, rice, wheat and other agricultural products prices rose to varying degrees, farmers planting willingness to enhance, to promote compound fertilizer, pesticides and other demand rebound.
Since the second quarter of the refining business continued to recover, some companies have the competitive advantage of refining and chemical integration, leading enterprises production and sales further growth.
Plastics, rubber and other subsectors have also achieved good performance growth, which is mainly due to the gradual recovery of the automotive industry, the corresponding materials and other products sales growth.
Building materials: glass, consumer building materials
In the early contraction of production capacity and automotive real estate and other downstream industries under the role of recovery, since the third quarter of the glass prices continue to rise, sales and prices double boost prompted the improvement of corporate profitability.
Benefiting from the decline in cost pressures and the improvement in real estate completion, the fundamentals of the consumer building materials sector improved further in the third quarter.
Cement prices showed a slight upward trend in the third quarter, and the national cement price index is now restored to a level close to that of the same period last year. Due to the rainy season interfering with construction and other factors, it is expected that the third quarter earnings growth rate compared to the second quarter growth rate appeared to slow down, that is, the cement industry in the third quarter profit year-on-year growth rate will slow down to single-digit growth.
Pharmaceuticals and biology: medical devices, chemical preparations, biological products
By the impact of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic, the demand for medical and protective products has increased significantly, especially in the third quarter of the overseas epidemic has not yet been effectively controlled, part of the production of medical protective products company (concentrated in the medical equipment and chemical preparations plate) useful more than sufficient domestic and foreign orders, the company's product sales and Profitability to maintain rapid growth. If the vaccine research and development to make effective progress, dependent on the production of medical supplies of enterprises may be difficult to maintain a high rate of profit growth.
In the third quarter, the profit growth rate of the biological products sector was maintained at a high level, and this year, the number of various types of vaccines, such as pneumonia vaccine and rabies vaccine issued by the rapid growth of the corresponding vaccines listed companies have a strong income security.