Affected by this news, the company's share price was $535 per share in after-hours trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange that day, up 17.72%. ?
The record production capacity in the first quarter mainly benefited from Tesla Giga Shanghai, which was officially put into production at the end of 20 19. At present, Tesla has two vehicle assembly plants in fremont, USA and Shanghai, China, among which the output of fremont plant is the largest, with a daily output of over 65,438+0,000 vehicles, equivalent to the output of Shanghai plant in the first week.
Tesla did not disclose the production and delivery of the two factories in the first quarter to a traveler. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, in the first two months of 2020, Tesla delivered about 7,500 vehicles in China.
However, the problem is that with the official shutdown of the largest factory in fremont on March 24th, the time of resumption of work is unknown, and Tesla's delivery figures in the second quarter and even the whole year will be affected. ?
Wall Street analysts have lowered Tesla's full-year delivery expectations. For example, Citibank analyst Yitai mikkeli (Itay? Michaeli) It is estimated that Tesla will deliver about 434,000 electric vehicles this year, which is lower than the previous forecast of 5,654,387,000. The target price of Tesla shares will be lowered from 365,438+02 US dollars to 246 US dollars. ?
CEO Elon Musk (Elon? Musk) set a goal of delivering 500,000 cars in 2020. Due to the global epidemic, it is still doubtful whether Tesla can achieve this goal. ?
Record in the first quarter, unsustainable in the second quarter?
On April 3rd, Tesla released the production delivery figures for the first quarter: 654.38+0.22 million vehicles delivered? S/X and 76200 models? 3/Y, the former delivered the same amount as last year, while the latter increased by 49.7%, which is the main driving force for Tesla's delivery growth. ?
Unlike other mainstream car companies that publish monthly production and sales reports, Tesla discloses production and delivery on a quarterly basis, usually within 1 day -4 days after the end of the quarter. Revenue and profit will be announced in the subsequent quarterly report. Tesla is expected to release its first-quarter earnings report later this month or early May. ?
Tesla believes that this delivery figure is still conservative, because "only when the car is handed over to the customer and a series of documents and contracts are signed will it be regarded as delivery, and the actual delivery number may be 0.5% higher than this figure, or even more." ?
The first quarter is the traditional off-season for automobile enterprises. Even though Tesla's output in the first quarter of this year reached a record of 654.38+002.7 million vehicles, it was still 2% lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
China factory contributed a lot to the delivery in the first quarter, and delivered about 7,500 cars in China in the first two months of 2020. In June 5438+10, Tesla registered 3563 new cars in China; According to the monthly database data of power battery in February, the output of Tesla Shanghai factory in February was 3,898 vehicles, accounting for more than 30% of the national output of 1. 1.9 million new energy vehicles, ranking first in the country. There is no data for reference in March. ?
Tesla Shanghai Factory Manufacturing Director Song Gang Domestic Model 20 19? At the delivery ceremony, it was said that the current output of Shanghai factory can reach 28 units per hour, the daily start-up time is 10 hour, and the weekly output exceeds 1000 units. It is expected to reach 3000 units/week in the future. "Now the factory is working overtime almost every day to meet the strong demand for orders."
However, with the official shutdown of the fremont plant on March 24th, Tesla's delivery figures in the second quarter and the whole year will be affected. The fremont plant is Tesla's largest, with a daily production capacity of over 65,438+0,000 vehicles. ?
According to a traveler's statistics, at least three Tesla employees were diagnosed with COVID-19, including two office workers in California and one factory employee in Nevada. ?
For consumers, factory shutdown means a delay in delivery time. According to Tesla official website, the estimated delivery time is 8 weeks 12 weeks. ?
Tesla's shutdown is reluctant. On March 19, after several rounds of negotiations with the county, state and federal governments, Tesla announced that it would stop work on March 24-a few days later than its competitors in Detroit. Even if the work is stopped, Tesla will regard it as an opportunity to "sharpen the knife and cut the wood by mistake". Will it carry out production line transformation and upgrade the model? The output of y?
After all, CEO Musk demanded that this year's delivery volume increase by more than 36% compared with last year, and the delivery target of 500,000 vehicles was completed throughout the year. If the production line stops for one day, it will stay away from the small target. ?
In view of the impact of the epidemic, many analysts have lowered their delivery expectations for Tesla in 2020. Itemikli predicts that production will gradually resume in the third quarter and fully resume in the fourth quarter. The financial level corresponds to the production level. In the first and second quarters, the financial report will lose money, and in the third quarter, it will return to a level slightly higher than the break-even point, and in the fourth quarter, it will return to profit. ?
Tesla is trying to overcome the financial impact of the shutdown. A few weeks ago, the company raised $2.365438 billion by issuing new shares, which provided a buffer for possible operating losses. Tesla said that it can also get about $3 billion in working capital, plus financing for its Shanghai factory. By the end of February last year, it had $6.3 billion in cash. ?
Tesla began to consider modifying much-needed medical equipment such as ventilators in automobile factories. On March 22, Musk said on Twitter that he had a long discussion with Medtronic, a medical device company, on the production of ventilators. However, there is no substantial progress at present.
There is only one factory in China, and the "reduced distribution door" hurts the brand?
After the closure of the American factory, only the Shanghai Super Factory is left in the vehicle assembly plant that Tesla is operating. What model is the factory currently producing? Three models. After the completion of the Shanghai Lingang Tesla Super Factory Project (Phase I), the annual output of pure electric vehicles is 6.5438+0.5 million, and the mass production models include Model? 3 and model? Y, Phase II is under construction.
Tesla China official website information shows, now book the model? The standard battery life upgrade version is expected to be delivered in the second quarter of this year, and the dual-motor all-wheel drive long battery life version and high-performance version are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of this year.
Tesla Giga Shanghai officially resumed production in February 10, belonging to the first batch of automobile factories. However, supply chain management can't keep up with the speed of resumption of production, which leads to the scandal of "distribution reduction". Tesla not only received complaints from consumers, but also attracted interviews from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
At the end of February, a domestic Tesla owner found that he bought the China version of Model? 3. The vehicle configuration is inconsistent with the on-board environmental protection list. The list indicates HW3.0 chip, but the old HW2.5 chip is actually used.
On March 3, Tesla publicly apologized, saying that the downward adjustment of configuration was a last resort in the supply chain situation and was willing to provide free replacement of HW3.0 chips for car owners. On March 10, the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice, indicating that Tesla had been interviewed and asked to immediately rectify in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Measures for the Administration of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Access to ensure production consistency and product quality and safety.
It is true that the COVID-19 epidemic is an unprecedented challenge for all automobile companies. The middle-level purchasing department of a main engine factory told a traveler that the previous supply chain management problems were all regional, for example, due to the weather, production or logistics could not be stopped, and one week was enough for enterprises to investigate, identify and pay attention to risks, but "there has never been such a complicated problem as this epidemic, and risk management has been done from 1 to now, from the whole country to the whole world."
The "reduced distribution door" has indeed affected the confidence of some consumers. "I don't think Tesla understands the China market," Tesla's Beijing Auto Advocate told a traveler. "China people have been spoiled by traditional 4S stores. Everyone used to think that Tesla was a high-tech toy and would tolerate it. Now the price of 300 thousand has touched many ordinary car owners who don't know Tesla. If Tesla continues to do this, there will definitely be catastrophic problems in the future. "
Tesla, which regards the China market as an important growth pole, knows to change. On April 2nd, Tesla established China Cheyou Club to "gather more colleagues who agree with Tesla's concept and practice and advocate Tesla's concept". ?
According to official information, the person in charge of the certification club enjoys exclusive communication channels, regular online and offline official exchanges with Tesla China and the world, and the right to visit factories and release new products.
"Today's Tesla is GM 20 years ago, and there is a lot of room for improvement in the localization rate." Alexis, head of strategic research in China at investment bank Jefferies? Lee told a traveler that if any foreign brand wants to develop rapidly in the China market, it must improve the localization rate of the industrial chain and local service capabilities, including timeliness of services and timeliness of accessories. "?
Song Gang, manufacturing director of Tesla's Shanghai factory, said that the localization rate of parts in Shanghai factory is about 30% at present, and it is planned to increase to 70%-80% by July 2020. (Editor/Yang Peiqian)
The article comes from WeChat official account Traveler (ID: carcaijing), which was founded by the transportation industry group of Caijing magazine. It focuses on the news in the field of transportation and is committed to exploring travel, technology and the future.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.