2019 has already seen a downturn in the economy, with trade disputes of all kinds, signaling a quiet crisis.
In 2020 we are in the midst of change without realizing it, and most people laugh and say "selling anxiety" and even think they will be rich soon. I lament that our ancestors taught us to think of danger in times of peace, but what has been handed down to us is the arrogance of the night?
To get to the point, what is the situation today? The first is to make sure that you have a good understanding of the situation, and that you have a good idea of what is happening.
1, manufacturing.
From 19 years, China's manufacturing industry has been a trend of transfer to Southeast Asia, although the media do not like to report, but searching for export growth in countries such as Vietnam can understand the general situation.
Of course, for the huge volume of China, that something is not enough to hurt, the only thing to be afraid of is the trend, do not forget, we are from the low-end OEM climbed up, and now Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, vigorously implement institutional reforms, that energy and determination is not like the status quo of the honest goods. Most importantly, the United States and Europe have trade incentives for them, such as zero tariffs.
$46.98 billion! Vietnam's trade surplus with the US up 34.7%, on its way to becoming a world export power? /r/31ktjlf?f=cp&u=5f143b55b4051738
When it comes to this, some people want to pop up a "industrial upgrading", I don't know what is called upgrading, upgrading from where, how to upgrade, there is no science and technology and technology support, ultimately, or processing, will still be replaced. I don't know what is meant by upgrading, where and how.
In the past few years, the United States has repeatedly called for the return of the manufacturing industry to the local community, the recent attitude is even stronger, even punitive measures have been used, we all realize the benefits of manufacturing, began to grab meat to eat, the cake is so big, what will happen in the end, it is difficult to say.
In short, there are wolves in front of us and tigers behind us, and I don't think we can be optimistic now, especially in the midst of a crisis when everyone is hungry and their ferocious nature will only be exposed.
2. Import and export.
The outbreak of the epidemic, countries to press the pause button on consumption, our foreign trade was badly hit.
According to foreign official predictions, the epidemic may last for a year, if consumption continues to be low, import and export enterprises simply can not hold out.
It is well known that private enterprises have narrow financing channels and take on a lot of employment, and now they are in a no-order situation, leading to a reduction in foreign exchange earnings and a sustained outflow of jobs.
We are clamoring for "de-dollarization" every day, open your eyes and see what countries without foreign exchange are like. We have been shouting "abandon low-end manufacturing" every day, and now foreign trade is in jeopardy, what about jobs?
Of course, the optimistic scenario is that the epidemic will be brought under control as soon as possible, the world will be restored to order, and the various disputes will be resolved and then get back on track, so all we can do is to wait and watch, and pray and bless.
3. Friendliness.
This one might be sensitive, I don't know if I can send it out, I'll try to involve myself as little as possible.
As you can tell from the recent media winds, many countries have been less than friendly to us. I'm not going to talk about what's right or wrong, just what's going on. I think there will be a wave of disputes after the outbreak, especially with the U.S., which has a trade war on its hands, and I think we're going to have to settle the old and new scores together.
Actually there have been recent developments, chip restrictions, corporate sanctions, medical device bans, etc. Search the news if you're interested.
As I said in response to a private message, it's not always the hardest when an epidemic is going on, and it's not always easy when it's over.
With the outside out of the way, let's talk about the inside.
I. Internal demand.
Build what the outside doesn't buy, and we'll buy it ourselves.
No matter from which data, the people's liabilities are very high, and did not count the shadow banking and other debt (you understand for relatives and friends borrowing), some people want to refute that the money is more and more (m2 scale), to be honest, I'm quite lazy to take care of, talk about the m1, talk about money, talk about the ratio of deposits and loans and so on can't understand, let's be simple, common sense, with logic to think, please, money! Why does the central bank shout "increase liquidity" every year? Money so much why day and night to release water? The first thing you need to do is to get your hands on some of the most popular products and services in the world.
There is an answer? Yes, the lack of money! Only the lack of money so tossed!
If a person is still stuffing his mouth with food when he is full, it is called suicide!
Of course, the money shortage will not be immediately apparent, people's livelihood products, low-end consumer products to last a few months is not a big problem, commodities will consciously prepare for the aftermath of it.
Two, the money towards.
This is my least favorite to write, touching the interests of too many people, always being chased to fight, medical bills can not afford to pay.
Saying the main topic.
The first shot of the U.S. epidemic self-help burst the stock market bubble, so that money flows into the market to save businesses and liquidity, in fact, we also have Ray, the bubble does not lose the U.S. stock market, it is real estate.
Liquidity, indebtedness, weakening domestic demand are related to this guy.
The people are keen to buy real estate, enterprises are keen to speculate on real estate, when the crisis comes, all walks of life downturn no profit, panic increases, investment channels are reduced, the money will only accelerate the influx of real estate, pushing up the bubble to lock the liquidity.
Not burst this mine, how to release how to leverage is useless, as long as the majority of people still believe that housing prices rise, speculation will continue, the flow of funds unchanged.
Everyone who buys a house to buy into the faith do not spray, I live on a park bench, can not afford to buy a house also have no room, as a businessman simply from the economic point of view to see the problem. Your house up or down, I just want the economy to be better, not every day top a mine, business is getting harder and harder to do.
Three, reform.
Previously, the answer always appeared in the "April 1 foreign access" words, I did not reply in detail, in this unified say.
Foreign enterprises to our country is not to do charity to come, it has many requirements, such as copyright protection, legal perfection, the rules of complementary and so on. Local enterprises are accustomed to subterfuge, bullying fools are accustomed to, and now ask them to behave very difficult, the stock market registration system, can not be staged again, "scallops run" plays, labor law is strictly enforced, can not be staged to fire the play does not pay, I am doing small business, know the changes, mixed feelings, happy that you can make money based on conscience and ability! The problem is that the cost of doing things according to the rules has risen, and the people can not afford it.
In addition, many people do not realize that if foreign capital has bad intentions, specifically targeted at the economy in the bubble to start, stimulate, inflate, push up after the cash out of the field to leave a chicken feather, who suffered? Who will suffer? Think about how the country speculates on Canadian houses and makes them complain.
Write to this, a lot of questions limited time, do not eat this bowl of rice, forgive me.
In short, we are in a crisis, we must step by step carefully to deal with a wrong decision will trigger economic risks, do not always feel that they want to go to heaven, where it is quite good, we are developing countries, did not come to the point of everyone high and mighty.