First of all, let's look at the company's main business: the development, investment and operation of wind and solar energy, which is located in the downstream of the new energy industry chain, responsible for the development and operation of the project, and then sell the electricity to the power grid company.
If we look at the ceiling of the company's future development, we mainly look at the future of the new energy market. We have done a lot of analysis before, analyzing the 14 th Five-Year Plan and the long-term plan for the future 3060 goal. Let's briefly summarize:
So the total demand of the industry will not change in the future.
In addition to this scheme, there is also a practical significance that each province has the lowest consumption ratio of new energy, which provides practical significance for practical operation.
In 2020, the total wind power generation will be 727 billion kWh, accounting for 9.6% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society. According to the plan of Energy Bureau, it will account for 16.5% in 2025. It can be estimated that wind power generation will reach a compound growth rate of 20% in 2025.
Summary:
For the future of the company, from the perspective of ten years, there is still huge space and no obvious ceiling. The main reason is that the market demand is increasing and the electrification trend remains unchanged. In addition, as a new energy, in the wave of energy structure adjustment, certainty increases.
In the field of new energy operation, the top five power companies are Longyuan Power (09 16. HK), Huaneng New Energy, Datang New Energy (1798. HK), Huadian Fuxin, energy-saving wind power, China Guangdong Nuclear Power.
Main companies of wind power operation:
From the perspective of installed capacity, the company's market share is less than 3%, and the scale of future construction and approval is also increasing year by year. At present, the offshore projects under construction have accounted for 20% of the offshore wind power projects under construction in China, becoming the overlord of offshore power generation. But from the overall scale, the company is still a small company in this field, and there is still a lot of room for development in the future.
Compound growth rate of the company's installed capacity:
In addition, the gross profit margin and total assets growth rate of Three Gorges Energy are also significantly ahead of listed companies in the same industry.
The new energy installed capacity of Three Gorges Group has climbed to the seventh place in China, ranking the first echelon after the five major power generation groups and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation.
Lei Mingshan, chairman of the Three Gorges Group, publicly stated that "in the next five years, the goal of the Three Gorges is to achieve the level of 70 million to 80 million kilowatts of new energy installed." This means that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the installed capacity of new energy of the Three Gorges Group will increase by 4-5 times on the existing basis. The listed Three Gorges Energy will undertake most of the tasks.
From the next five years to 10, the growth rate of the Three Gorges will still maintain a high growth rate, with a compound growth rate of over 20%.
Four. Valuation and risk points of the company
(1) Comparison between Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy;
Judging from the current valuation level, the valuation level of Three Gorges Energy was relatively reasonable when it went public, but now the market speculation is too high, even if it can maintain a compound growth rate of more than 20% per year, it is far beyond its reasonable valuation range.
(1) photovoltaic power generation: the price of polycrystalline modules has dropped from about 3.5 yuan/watt at the beginning of 20 16 to below 1.6 yuan/watt at present, and that of single crystal modules has dropped from about 3.8 yuan/watt at the beginning of 20 16 to about 1.77 yuan/watt at present. In 20 18 years, the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation system has been reduced to 5000-6000 yuan /kw. If the non-technical costs such as land, power grid connection and current development cost can be effectively reduced, the investment in power station system is expected to drop to 4000-5000 yuan /kw by 2020.
The reduction of the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants depends on two aspects, one is the reduction of the manufacturing cost of manufacturers, and the other is the competition among manufacturers. After several years of fierce competition, it can be clearly seen that the industry cost has dropped to a very low position. Take Longji as an example, the level of net profit in 2020 is close to 1 1%. Therefore, from the development cycle of the industry, this round of cost decline curve may enter a flat period.
The average purchase price of Goldwind Technology dropped from more than 4,000 in 19 to 202 12860, and the net profit level was around 5% for two consecutive years. This low net profit level is difficult to maintain for a long time. One of the main reasons is that the withdrawal of competitors has caused a balance between supply and demand in the industry, and there may even be an oversupply situation, thus improving the profit level of midstream manufacturers.
Summary:
The continuous decline in manufacturing costs is difficult to sustain and maintain at a low level, which is the gospel of the power generation industry.
The main profit source of the company is the difference between the electricity price cost and the sales electricity price. From 20 17 to 20 19, the profit per kwh of Three Gorges Energy is 0.28 yuan/kwh, 0.27 yuan/kwh and 0.28 yuan/kwh respectively, while the average profit per kwh of companies in the same industry is about 0.20-0.25 yuan/kwh. At present, this is still higher than the industry level, but we can't ignore an important issue. During this period, the company enjoyed high on-grid tariffs, including subsidies.
It can be clearly seen from the above that the price difference in the past three years has been decreasing step by step. This will have a certain impact on the company. That is to say, the above-mentioned electricity price is gradually declining, but the actual manufacturing cost is not falling so fast, which will affect the company's revenue level and may usher in a painful period in the future.
3. Subsidies, accounts receivable, depreciation and taxation.
(1) revenue and main cost
The gross profit level of the company is determined by revenue, which mainly comes from electricity sales. The main cost of the company is the depreciation expense of fixed assets of wind power and photovoltaic power stations.
We can see that one of the reasons why the company maintains a high gross profit is that the company has a long depreciation period and a low annual depreciation rate, so it forms a high gross profit level.
(2) Taxation
On the net profit level, it is still more than 30% every year, which should also be noted that a large part of China's support policies for new energy companies are tax incentives.
In view of the policy of exempting new energy enterprises for the first three years and halving them for the next three years, we will vigorously promote enterprises to become bigger and stronger.
During the period of 20 17, 20 18, 20 19,1-September 2020, the company enjoyed RMB 468,052,300, RMB 59,728120,000 and RMB 665,438+. The proportion of the company's total profit is 17.69%, 19.92%, 18.49% and 24.67% respectively.
From the above situation, the company enjoys great tax incentives, but with the passage of time, the expiration of these preferential policies will have a greater impact on the company's net profit level.
(3) Subsidies
The problem that this industry can't avoid during the support period is subsidies.
This matter is known to most people in the industry, and it is not so easy to get the money for the insurance policy. Either not, or this time is far away. According to the statistics of individual peers, many new energy subsidies may not be fully in place until 2035.
The following paragraph is the company's attitude towards subsidies, but as an investor, we should pay more attention to practical problems.
(4) Accounts receivable
If the previous question is easy to explain, then this question is a difficult one. Let's look at the company's accounts receivable:
We can see that the accounts receivable for electricity charges are around 470 million, and the accounts receivable for new energy subsidies are 654.38+0.29 billion. If the following provision ratio is adopted, the company is likely to make more provision for bad debts in the future.
Summary: Three Gorges Energy, a company with a high ceiling, has a high growth space in the future. Judging from the growth rate, because the company's scale in the industry is not large, the growth rate is also very fast. But at the same time, the company faces many problems. In terms of valuation, the market has given a high premium. At the same time, the financial problems faced by the company in the future are enough to make investors sleepless.
To give the company a wait-and-see attitude, we need to wait for the valuation to fall back to a reasonable range, and pay attention to the changes in financial situation.