Polaris energy storage net news: Introduction: lithium iron phosphate industry chain involves upstream raw materials phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, lithium carbonate, midstream cathode material lithium iron phosphate, and downstream lithium iron phosphate pools and vehicles, the back-end market also includes power waste lithium iron phosphate battery dismantling, laddering and wet recycling.
In 2019, new energy vehicle sales negative growth due to a sharp decline in subsidies, it is expected that in 2020 China's new energy vehicle subsidies are no longer regressive, but the pressure to reduce the cost of a single vehicle still exists, lithium iron phosphate batteries have a greater advantage over ternary in terms of cost, and once again enter the market view. This article is the first in a series of reports on lithium iron battery industry chain, mainly describing the logic of lithium iron battery recovery in the field of power, emphasizing the advantages of lithium iron battery in the field of low-end passenger cars and some companies in this area to actively explore.
Cost-driven lithium iron phosphate batteries continue to penetrate the passenger car field
From the material to the battery, the cost advantage of the lithium iron phosphate technology route is obvious
The performance of the battery is determined by the level of performance of the material, as a kind of lithium battery, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery has a very clear advantages and disadvantages. Battery) advantages and disadvantages are very obvious: low cost, high cycle times, poor low temperature performance, low energy density. Special index data determine the share of LFP batteries in new energy vehicles is gradually eaten up by the power density and energy density of the higher ternary batteries, the current installed base is mainly concentrated in passenger cars and special purpose vehicles, in the field of passenger cars, the share of the installed volume of lower. However, with the substantial changes in subsidy policy, has been pursuing the direction of high energy density of ternary batteries encountered cost resistance. Under the pressure of cost reduction, looking for other batteries to replace ternary batteries is the idea that car companies have been insisting on. LFP batteries, which are 10%-15% cheaper than ternary batteries, have become one of the options for automakers to consider in low-end passenger car models.
LFP batteries cost 10%-15% less than ternary batteries, the gap is mainly reflected in the material system of the two batteries. In the ternary battery system, the battery accounts for 40% of the vehicle cost, of which the ternary cathode material accounts for about 30% of the battery cost. The content of cobalt-nickel-manganese valuable metal in ternary cathode material is high, although the price of cobalt has dropped from the highest point of 680,000 yuan/ton to 280,000 yuan/ton, together with the nickel-manganese salt and lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide material as well as the processing cost, the price of ternary material is in the range of 120,000-180,000 yuan/ton. And LFP anode is mainly composed of iron phosphate + lithium carbonate, with the lower price of both, the final price of LFP anode is only 41-45 thousand yuan / ton. In addition, LFP batteries mainly use dry diaphragm, the price is also lower than the wet diaphragm used in ternary batteries. Ultimately reflected in the price of battery cells, the cost of LFP cells can be 0.55 yuan / Wh, while the cost of ternary cells is about 0.65 yuan / Wh. The price difference between the two is due to the positive electrode. The price difference between the two will exist for a long time due to the difference in cathode material prices. Adding the pack ring, the absolute value of the price difference between the two is around $0.15.
Low-end passenger cars are prioritized for cost reduction, and the proportion of lithium iron battery packages is increasing
In 2019, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined significantly, and local subsidies have been canceled, resulting in the average subsidy for a single vehicle dropping by as much as 70%. In absolute terms, the amount of subsidies for microcars and small cars plummeted from the 40,000 to 50,000 range to less than 18,000 yuan, and cost reduction is the main line of low-end passenger cars in the next 2-3 years.
Lithium iron phosphate has a greater advantage over ternary batteries in terms of cost. From the cathode material, to the battery system, to the whole car, and even the whole use process. The path of cost reduction comes from the continuous decline in the price of the material side and the improvement of the lithium iron battery process level. With a charge of 40 degrees of electricity in a small car, for example, ternary battery price of about 40,000 yuan, range of 350 kilometers; while the price of lithium iron phosphate battery 32,000 yuan, range of 300 kilometers; sacrificing 50 kilometers of theoretical range (the actual range of 20-30 kilometers) can bring about 8,000 yuan to the car companies to reduce the cost of space.
And in the use of the end, the whole life cycle of lithium iron models than ternary models of the average annual cost of use of about 4300 yuan. Therefore, we believe that the shift from ternary to LiFePO4 for low-end models is the same goal-oriented for both car companies and consumers***.
From the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new car recommended directory, into 2020, lithium iron batteries in passenger cars in the proportion of supporting a significant rebound, the latest recommended directory shows that the proportion of lithium iron batteries in passenger cars supporting more than 20%. Among them, SAIC Group Rongwei ei6 plug-in, Rongwei eRX5 plug-in and MG MG6 plug-in modified version of the model is also determined to replace the lithium iron phosphate battery. This is a change in the car companies' new perception of lithium iron batteries, which are more cost-effective than ternary batteries and have little impact on performance. Plug-in hybrid models itself with a charge of about 15 degrees, the battery weight of 120 kilograms, from ternary back to lithium iron, the same capacity, the battery weight increase of only 10 kilograms, range impact of 5 kilometers or so, but the cost fell by 3,000 yuan. We expect this trend will continue to strengthen in 2020, lithium iron in passenger cars supporting is expected to speed up.
China's hot-selling MPV electrification, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to recover
Wuling Hongguang lead, China's popular models to create a miracle of production and sales
In the development of China's automotive industry in the great process of independent auto enterprises have always been in the situation of passive, but there are still a number of The car model has become the people's mouth of the car. The reason why I use the word "car" is because they stand out in the fierce competition in the car market, creating a sales myth and quality reputation. Wuling Hongguang as the first of China's domestic car to high-quality, low price, open not bad, low-cost features to consumers left a deep impression, Wuling Hongguang is known as "Qiuming Mountain God car".
SAIC-GM-Wuling's A-class MPV model Wuling Hongguang first model listed in 2010, positioned as a mini van. The Wuling Hongguang's perfect balance of power and economy, as well as its strength in maneuverability and safety, has subverted people's traditional impression of business vehicles. Since its launch, the car has dominated the sales ranking of the MPV segment for seven consecutive years, with monthly sales of up to 82,500 units at its peak.In 2019, the cumulative sales volume of the Wuling Hongguang sold 375,000 units, ranking fourth in the domestic automobile sales volume, and ranking second in the independent models, second only to the Haval H6.As of the end of 2019, the cumulative sales volume of the Wuling Hongguang series of models reached up to 4.5 million, with a strong The accumulation of users, excellent word-of-mouth feedback and high cost performance are important factors in the continued sales of Wuling Hongguang series models.
In addition, SAIC-GM-Wuling's Wuling Rongguang, another specialized vehicle, also reached sales of 160,000 units in 2019, and ranked No. 7 in the 19-year sales list of independent models. The big microbus Wuling Rongguang since the launch of the first model in 2008, the positioning of micro-van, business and cargo.
In 2012, Wuling Rongguang was fully upgraded, in which the lengthened version of the product will extend the length of the vehicle to 4490mm, the width and height of 1615mm, 1900mm, respectively, and upgraded from the original 7 seats to 9 seats, with more space. After three generations of revisions, the Wuling Rongguang has been extended to V, S, extended version, single and double rows and small trucks and other versions.
Autonomous car enterprises are the main force of electrification, but the electrification rate of the 2019 sales top10 autonomous models is relatively low, with only 3 models having corresponding electric vehicles on sale. Autonomous car enterprises have not effectively utilized the high sales volume and high reputation effect of hot models to develop the electric market. On the one hand, models based on oil-vehicle platforms are purely telephonic, which will have a certain disadvantage in terms of range; on the other hand, the competition between oil and electric models on the same stage is also one of the considerations of automobile enterprises. We believe that car companies are more willing to launch a new car based on a pure electric platform to hit the market, but the new platform is not equal to the new brand, hot brands in the consumer market penetration effect is significantly better than the new brand.
Wuling Hongguang / Rongguang pure electric version into the recommended directory, is expected to drive the lithium iron battery installed back
In the second half of 2019, SAIC-GM Wuling began the electrification process of the relevant popular models, Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang two god car led, both into the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued by the 326th batch of the new car publicity list. Both will be launched in high and low range versions of pure electric models, and subdivided into multi-purpose version and transportation version. From the battery supporting point of view, Wuling Hongguang high range version by ningde times supporting lithium iron phosphate battery, battery parameters are (335V/125Ah), equivalent to the amount of 41.88KWh. low range version by Guoxuan Hi-Tech supporting lithium iron phosphate battery, the parameters are (323V/105Ah), equivalent to the amount of 33.92KWh. Wuling Rongguang by the PengHui energy exclusive supporting iron phosphate lithium battery, the high range version of the The Wuling Rongguang is supported by Penghui Energy's exclusive LiFePO4 battery, with a high range version (368V/113Ah), equivalent to 41.58 kilowatts of electricity, and a low range version (314V/113Ah), equivalent to 35.48 kilowatts of electricity.
Following the public announcement of the new car, the two god cars soon entered the recommended catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. According to the 11th batch of recommended catalogs in 2019, Wuling Rongguang models have a high range version of 310 kilometers, with an energy density of 131Wh/kg; a low range version of 260 kilometers, with an energy density of 126Wh/kg. Wuling Rongguang models have a high range version of 41.6 degrees of electricity with a range of 300 kilometers, with an energy density of 125Wh/kg; a low range version of 35.4 degrees of electricity with a range of 252 kilometers, with an energy density of 125Wh/kg. In addition, the Wuling vans of Guangxi Automobile have a range of 270 kilometers, with lithium iron phosphate batteries provided by Penghui Energy.
SAIC-GM-Wuling based on the car Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang fuel car, a **** launched 3 brands, a cumulative total of 10 models of pure electric vehicles. In addition, in the field of passenger cars, SAIC-GM-Wuling is also about to launch E300/E300L and other low-end passenger car models, which is expected to open up the penetration space of small cars. We assume that Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang model sales penetration rate of 20%, superimposed on the E100/200 incremental and E300 new models, the SGMW EV transition is expected to drive lithium iron battery incremental more than 5GWh.
BYD blade batteries lead the way, the middle and high end of the passenger car trial water lithium iron battery
Post-subsidized era, the car companies on the In the high-end field, BYD took the lead in launching the latest blade battery, using lithium iron phosphate route, the system energy density of up to 160Wh/kg, the modified battery applied in its high-end models Han, the actual energy density of 140Wh/kg, the highest range of 605 kilometers, is the lithium iron models of the biggest breakthrough in range.
To put it simply, the so-called "blade battery" is BYD's development of a length greater than 0.6 meters of large cells, is a long cell program, through the array of ways to arrange together, like a "blade" as inserted into the battery pack. Flattening and lengthening the battery cells involves improving the integration efficiency of the battery pack. Improvement is mainly reflected in the power battery pack space utilization, volume energy density can be increased by 50%; weight energy density is also improved. On the other hand, the long battery cell program is directly connected to the shell on both sides, which can ensure that the battery cell has a large enough heat dissipation area, which can conduct the internal heat to the outside, thus matching the higher energy density. In terms of cost, a blade battery is about 10% less expensive than a traditional structural battery, which effectively saves battery costs.
Many lithium iron models will soon be listed, LFP power battery incremental space is vast
The extrusion of ternary batteries on the share of lithium iron batteries started in 2016, and in the field of passenger cars, ternary quickly replaced lithium iron, installed share gradually increased. In the field of special-purpose vehicles, the installed capacity of ternary also has a large growth, while the passenger car field due to policy reasons, did not liberalize the ternary battery supporting. 2019 full year, China's power battery installed capacity reached 62GWh, passenger car installed capacity 42GWh, passenger car installed capacity 14.55GWh, special-purpose vehicle installed capacity 5.4GWh, passenger car has become the main field of pulling the battery installed capacity. Therefore, the share of ternary in the total amount of installed rapidly increased to 40GWh, installed share of 65%, an increase of 10GWh over 18 years; and lithium iron battery installed volume of only 20GWh, installed volume for three consecutive years of growth bottlenecks, installed share fell to 32%.
Based on the subsidy changes to the cost-oriented shift, we firmly optimistic about lithium iron in the field of passenger cars supporting the continued improvement. The recovery of lithium iron in new energy automobile applications is a long-term process, the share of power installed capacity will maintain a stable proportion. From a single model point of view, Wuling Rongguang/Hongguang car electric version of the scale of production and sales is expected to reach 100,000 units level, contributing to the installed capacity of 4GWh; and in the long term, we expect that 50% of the domestic A00 models, 30% of the A0 models, 10% of the A-class cars and 30% of the plug-in models are expected to support the LFP batteries, to 2020, the sales of various models predicted data, the incremental installed capacity of LFP batteries up to 10GWh. In 2020, the installed capacity of LFP batteries will increase to 10GWh, and the installed capacity of LiFePO4 will reach 30.37GWh, and in 2021-2022, it will reach 36GWh and 42.6GWh respectively, and with the low-end models of the global mainstream automobile enterprises starting to shift to LFP batteries, we believe that in the long run, the incremental space of LFP batteries in the field of new energy vehicles is more considerable.
LFP industry chain related standard comb
The lithium iron phosphate industry chain involves the upstream raw materials phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, lithium carbonate, midstream anode material lithium iron phosphate, and the downstream lithium iron phosphate pools and the whole car, the back end of the market, including the power of the dismantling of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries, laddering and wet recycling. From the point of view of industrial concentration and corporate purity, positive pole and battery plant business is relatively more pure, is the preferred investment link.
Battery link
Nintendo era: LiFePO4 battery share of the first, the force of passenger cars
Nintendo era is the absolute leader of the battery link, ternary and LiFePO4 batteries in parallel. 2019 32GWh installed capacity, 21GWh for ternary, 11GWh for LiFePO4. The lithium iron battery is mainly supporting buses, since the second half of 2019, the company lithium iron battery began to passenger car models supporting, this time to provide lithium iron battery to Tesla is expected to further establish the company's industry position in the lithium iron segment. In terms of ternary batteries, the company has established cooperative relationships with a number of mainstream car companies at home and abroad, and set up a battery factory in Europe, the future of the company is expected to benefit from the outbreak of electric vehicles in Europe to further consolidate market share, high-growth logic is expected to continue to realize.
Penghui energy: focus on LFP power battery low-cost players
The company is a small and beautiful all-round lithium battery comprehensive supplier, in the consumer, power (including light power), energy storage and power tools are involved in the field. The company has shifted its focus to lithium iron batteries in the power battery business, while in the energy storage segment, the company has realized the supply of standby power supply for base stations and actively expanded the European energy storage market. In the future, the company will benefit from the power, 3C digital and energy storage battery demand explosion, earnings elasticity.
Positive link
Delphi Nano: LFP anode materials market share first, low-cost program can not be replicated
The company is currently the most pure lithium iron phosphate anode materials subject in the A shares. 2018, the nano lithium iron phosphate materials revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, accounting for 96.13% of the company's revenue. The company is the core supplier of lithium iron materials for the Ningde era, and the shipment of lithium iron phosphate anode materials is growing rapidly, with a shipment of 22,000 tons in 2019, of which the supply ratio to Ningde reaches 72%, accounting for 60% of its procurement volume. The company's lithium iron cathode is an industry leader in process technology and cost, using "self-heating evaporation liquid phase synthesis of lithium iron phosphate nanotechnology", raw materials from lithium carbonate, nitric acid, iron source, phosphoric acid, and the industry's traditional "lithium carbonate + iron phosphate" water-heated method with significant differences, low-cost path can not be replicated. Difference, low-cost path can not be replicated.
Xiangtan electrochemical: potential lithium iron anode underestimation of the standard
The company is Xiangtan electrochemical Xiangtan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission subordinate to the holding company, the main business for the production and sale of electrolytic manganese dioxide and new energy battery materials, centralized treatment of municipal wastewater, industrial trade and so on. It is a high-quality supplier of secondary battery manufacturers such as Hunan Sugo, Qingdao Qianyun and Thornton New Energy. The company has a 16% stake in Yuneng New Energy, which is one of the core suppliers of lithium iron phosphate, with clients such as Ningde Times, BYD and YWL. Yuneng New Energy currently has 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate anode production capacity, with shipments of more than 10,000 tons in 2019, and the sales channel is built with the help of Xiangtan Electrochemical. The company and DeFang Nano*** are in the first echelon of LiFePO4 anode, and the products have high compaction density.
Guanghua Science and Technology: LFP new star, recycling industry chain has become
The company's main business PCB electronic chemicals and chemical reagents, in 2017 to enter the lithium materials industry, has laid out the layout of the battery recycling, lithium iron phosphate & iron phosphate project, lithium iron laddering project. 2019 first half of the lithium materials business accounted for the proportion of the company to 18%, compared with the end of 18 to increase by 5 percentage points. In the first half of 2019, the proportion of lithium materials business reached 18% of the company, up 5 percentage points from the end of 18, and is expected to reach 19% in 2019. The company has built an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of iron phosphate, based on the wet purification technology of electronic chemicals, the company's iron phosphate quality is superior, and the product price is higher than the market. The lithium iron phosphate anode production line has been completed and is currently being verified. In the back-end market, the company layout power battery recycling business, is one of the five demonstration enterprises. The company has a full chain of capabilities from secondary utilization to wet processing, and is a direct beneficiary of the battery end-of-life discharge. The gradient utilization business of lithium iron batteries is gradually discharging, becoming the growth point of the company's income and profit.
China Baoan: Battery is one of the leading LFP cathode materials
The company holds a 75% stake in Battery, which is a rising star in the field of cathode, with a remarkable growth rate. At present, the main cathode material products of Betray include NCA single crystal and multi-crystal products and LFP series. The company put into production of anode material lithium iron phosphate in 2015, and became the third-ranked enterprise in the domestic lithium iron phosphate market in 2018, with a current capacity of 30,000 tons, and a 15,000-ton capacity in Changzhou is expected to be put into production in the middle of the year, with a shipment volume of about 13,000 tons in 19
years. The company's cathode materials accounted for a rapid rise in revenue ratio, from 9.70% in 2015 to 36.80% in 2018, gradually becoming the company's main revenue business. With the further release of the company's production capacity in the future, the pull of cathode materials on the company's profitability will be more obvious.
Original title: lithium iron phosphate battery ushered in a strong recovery
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