Unofficial analysis of housing price trend in Liaocheng, Shandong Province
I. Introduction
1, the total population of China is about1400 million!
2.2065438+On June 0, 2009, the National Health Planning Commission held a press conference. At the press conference, Wang Haidong, director of the Department of Aging Health of the Health and Health Commission, pointed out that at present, China is in the stage of rapid development of population aging. By the end of 2065438+2008, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above had reached 250 million. He said that the health status of the elderly in China is not optimistic. In 20 18 years, the average life expectancy of people in China was 77.0 years, but according to research, the average life expectancy of people in China was only 68.7 years. The proportion of elderly people with more than one chronic disease is as high as 75%, and there are more than 40 million disabled and partially disabled elderly people. The needs of the elderly for health services are very urgent. -The average life expectancy of men is about 66 years and that of women is 74 years; Future legal retirement age: male 65, female 60!
2. The website of the National Bureau of Statistics published "The sustained and rapid development of the construction industry and the remarkable improvement of the urban and rural appearance-the tenth series of reports on the achievements of economic and social development in the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China". The report shows that in 20 18, the per capita housing construction area of urban residents was 39 square meters, an increase of 32.3 square meters compared with 1978; The per capita housing construction area of rural residents is 47.3 square meters, an increase of 39.2 square meters compared with 1978.
Second, the introduction of Liaocheng
Liaocheng is located in the northwest of Shandong Province, bordering Dezhou and Hebei in the north, Heze and Henan in the south, Jinan and Taian in the east and Hebei Province in the west, with a total population of about 6 million. It has jurisdiction over Dongchangfu District, Linqing City, yanggu county, Shenxian County, Chiping County (now Chiping District), Dong 'e County, guanxian County and Gaotang County. GDP belongs to official data, so it is omitted because it has little reference significance. The official average wage is 5400 yuan/month (20 19), ranking first or second in the province in terms of economic development and strength. Unofficial survey data show that the wage income is between 2,500 and 5,000 yuan (most of them have no social insurance). Insufficient consumption potential and great pressure on life! It is a standard fourth-tier city.
1. Liaocheng house price comparison urban area or Dongchangfu District, the time point of 20 19 is 12. The price (asking price) of new houses in the old city is generally around 1. 1 10,000, and the price of second-hand houses is also around 1. 1 10,000. The prices of new houses and old houses are basically the same. The asking price of new houses in some areas of development zones or "high-tech zones" in new urban areas is basically around10.2 million, and that of old houses is around 0.9 million. There is a big gap between the prices of new houses and old houses. But overall, the real transaction price is about 200 thousand lower than the asking price, and the real transaction price is between 0.8 and 0.95 thousand, which is in line with the normal distribution. Look at the rental price, because the rental price can best reflect the real development level of real estate in the region. For a flat house in the urban area 130-150, the maximum monthly rent will not exceed 2,000 yuan, and the general price for carrying a bag is about 1200. The rent in the development zone is even lower, basically maintaining below 1 000, especially some relocated houses with better locations are basically around 600 yuan. The rent-to-sale ratio is very low! Explain that the growth momentum of housing prices is seriously kidney deficiency! ! If Liaocheng maintains high housing prices and continues to rise, then renting a house is the wisest choice.
2. The number of existing houses in Liaocheng. Take the area within the counterclockwise rotation range of New North Ring-East Ring-South Ring-West Ring for statistics. More than 400,000 houses have been built, under construction, commercial and collective. The largest community in this area is arcadia Group Building, with an estimated supply of about 40,000 sets. It can be called the largest steel coffin area in Liaocheng-slum area.
3. Liaocheng real estate holders and consumers. In addition to developers, the holders are mainly sporadic family housing investments, as well as some invisible real estate speculators, and a small part is used for their own residence. In Liaocheng City, 80% of the houses are owned by officials and businessmen, and the families of department-level and deputy-level cadres have more than 4 houses on average, the families of bureau-level cadres have more than 8 houses on average, and the families of cadres in key positions and special power departments have more than 10 houses! The broad working class generally maintains the level of 1 or 2 sets of affluent houses, including inherited houses.
What really needs to buy a house is consumers, mainly just-needed, improved housing such as marriage! These people, the so-called real estate leeks, need to be harvested regularly by developers! However, the growth of leek is not high, and the trend of yield reduction is serious.
4. The composition of house price. The house is composed of land price+construction and installation cost. At present, the second most expensive land in Liaocheng is 5 million mu (Liaocheng Country Garden), and the first is 877 yuan per mu (Liaocheng Xiangsheng Real Estate). Jian 'an expenses are generally controlled within 1200 yuan/㎡! ! ! The construction and installation costs of multi-storey houses should be controlled within 900 yuan/㎡. The construction and installation cost mentioned here is the winning bid price of the construction and installation company (including tax and profit), and the prices of water, electricity, heating and even moderate decoration are in line with the national standard quality. In practice, the combination of cutting corners and illegal subcontracting can reduce the cost by 200-400 yuan/㎡! The real construction cost is 1000 yuan/㎡ (high-rise) and 600 yuan/㎡ (multi-storey). Then calculate the land price to the floor price; Take Xiang Sheng Jin Lin Fu of Liaocheng Xiang Sheng Real Estate as an example, and his floor price does not exceed 3,000 yuan/m 2! The theoretical cost of Xiangsheng's high-rise building is about 4000 yuan! The theoretical cost of real estate in other locations will be less than 3800! ! However, the bid exceeds 1 0,000, and the opening profit is 1.63%. In order to make huge profits, we have to mention another concept: pool. Because there is no clear requirement for public pool in the current national laws, public pool is a fig leaf for developing enterprises! Use it to cover up dirty and naked fraud! The public stalls in Shandong province are famous all over the country, and the public stalls in Liaocheng are the most famous in Shandong: big, big and super-large! Take Xiang Sheng's Xianglin House as an example, it is not too outrageous for his house to be shared. High-rise buildings are basically between 24% and 29%, and multi-storey houses share about 15%. What are these booths? All we know is that there are evacuation buildings, elevators and so on. In fact, properties with houses, gates and even civil air defense works will be counted in the booth. In addition, there is a pool artifact: plan. The developer initially built 9000m2 according to the plan of10000m2. Then he found a government department to get 12000㎡, and then allocated this 2000㎡ to each household's pool, resulting in the actual construction area of some houses being 1 170.
In reality, the fake pool sales of a 30-story first-class high-rise building can offset the Jian 'an component of the building! It is said that the real cost of construction is the price of land purchased by developers! !
In addition, the price of land purchased by developers is also false, which is already the secret of local government land finance disclosure! For example, the developer took the land at a price of 8 million mu, and the government publicized it for the record. In fact, in most cases, the government only requires developers to pay 50%-70%, or return it to developers in full, or take compensation measures such as allocating other land for free to compensate developers.
To sum up, the construction cost of Liaocheng developers is actually the real cost of 2000-3000 square meters.
Some people may argue that labor, cement and steel bars have all gone up, so how can the cost not go up? I don't refute it, please read the above carefully to dispel doubts.
5. The officialdom environment of Liaocheng real estate. Bottom line: both the government and the developers hope that the buyers will become the takers! Why? Quite simply, this is a Ponzi scheme model. Regardless of whether the buyers are real estate speculators, just in need or others, local governments (LG) and developers (LM) hope that buyers will always pay for the house, and LG and LM will always collect money to cut leeks. Only in this way, real estate will not fall, even if you sell several houses a year, it will not collapse!
The interests of local governments and developers are always the same. There are two evidences: first, the wages and project funds of migrant workers and contractors will always be in arrears or even absent, and government functional departments will not handle them seriously and responsibly; This phenomenon will reduce the construction and installation costs of developers; Second, property buyers are deceived by developers, and the government will not treat developers seriously and sincerely, even if developers make a fuss! This kind of behavior will help developers get illegal benefits without due punishment!
Local governments selectively interpret laws and regulations through the power entrusted by the people, and induce people to consume high housing prices. For example, divide the school district, carve the nearest school, and specifically require work social security, residence permit, real estate license, etc. It seems to be formal, but in fact it is abuse of power to use the so-called "formal procedures or means" and demand people in an "informal and illegal social environment". It is conceivable that the masses are very hurt! For example, how many enterprises in Liaocheng can pay social security according to People's Republic of China (PRC) Labor Contract Law, and how many workers have received unfair treatment complaints and even arbitration. Did the functional departments seriously implement this law to effectively protect workers?
6. The developer's subsequent gold absorbing skills. Later property service is another means for developers to learn from others. It is not so much a "property service" as a "blood-sucking service". The property fee of Liaocheng new house is always 1.5 yuan-1.8 yuan -2 yuan, which is basically above 1.8 yuan, and it should be paid according to the purchased construction area. The real payment and accounts of property fees are never disclosed to the owners. Owners only need to know "property fees payable". Others have nothing to do with the owner. Of course, property companies are also controlled by developers. It's the master's uncle. Can the owner say that the service provided by the uncle is not good? ! Public electricity, elevators, lighting, garbage and so on are all kinds, which need to be paid separately. Use an example to illustrate the huge profits of property fees. If the high-rise building with a building area of 30,000 ㎡ is sold to 33,000 households, the property fee is 1.8 yuan /m2/ month, and other expenses are 600 yuan/year; The contribution rate is 85%, and the annual property income of this building is =1.8 * 33,000 *12 * 0.85+600 * 300 * 0.85 = 759,000 yuan. Because the warranty period of the house is generally 5 years, it is borne by the construction party, and the property only bears part of the health and safety premiums for the first 5 years. In addition, the community can also generate income through advertising. It is roughly estimated that this building can earn at least 60,000 yuan a year. Then the minimum property income of this building can reach 820,000/year, and the construction and installation cost of this building is 32 million yuan. Over 30 years, you can earn construction and installation fees through the property. In fact, it only takes 25 years for property developers to earn Jian' an fees!
7. Illegal sales in public areas. A typical example is civil air defense engineering facilities. Civil air defense works belong to the state and are usually used by the owners. The most widely used is parking spaces. Some confusion has been caused because of the unreasonable specific explanations concerning property law, contract law, special civil air defense law and civil air defense administrative departments of local governments. Therefore, developers think it is their own, and they can buy and sell it at will, or buy and sell it in disguise. Civil air defense parking spaces cannot be used for property rights, and most of them have included the whole component of the whole building, which is paid by all owners. Therefore, in actual judicial cases, civil air defense parking spaces only have the right to use, and the right to use belongs to all owners. The property can be managed according to the entrustment of the owners' committee, and the corresponding management fee is charged, and the proceeds are used for the community. However, developers began to sell in disguise or openly. Parking spaces in Liaocheng are generally 60,000-1.2 million, and general civil air defense parking spaces will be configured according to the ratio of 0.6 to 0.8. Then the building has a minimum of 1.80 parking spaces, and one parking space sells for 1 10,000, so the minimum illegal income will be1.80,000!
Third, the plight of Liaocheng real estate
Liaocheng real estate said above is profiteering, compared with readers. But why do many people say that developers have a hard time? The reason is that local governments have not strictly enforced relevant laws and regulations!
The law clearly stipulates that construction will be carried out after approval, and construction will start after the funds are in place. But in reality, all materials are reported while building, or even submitted for approval after building, or not reported at all, as you like! Finally, you can't apply for a real estate license, so that buyers can bear it! In addition, developers don't have any funds at all, and they all win the bid through the so-called black relationship. At the same time, they used bank loans and private usury to raise funds to pay the down payment of land transfer fees first, and then asked the construction party to contribute to the construction, empty-handed! Local governments and businesses operate together, and the national construction law becomes a dead letter! The construction party has no money, so it has to agree to the requirements of the developer in order to win the bid. The construction party also began to borrow usury to obtain start-up funds. In most cases, the risk is transferred and illegal subcontracting and unpacking begin. There are two bags, three bags and four bags, etc. Wait until the real construction workers have more than eight packages! Every link in the middle is in arrears, as well as contractors and workers who are in arrears with the project payment and workers' wages. This is the building ecosystem of Liaocheng. It is also the political ecological environment of the construction industry in China.
Fourthly, the analysis of housing price trend in Liaocheng in the next decade.
Liaocheng house prices will go up,,, and continue to go up. The responsibility and promoter is the local government! Local governments and developers jointly put on a show to encourage and oppress ordinary people to buy houses desperately, which increased the pressure on the buying atmosphere and environment, but did not increase purchasing power! I boldly estimate that the average house price in Liaocheng will reach 1.8 million /m2 in 2025, and the actual transaction price will not be lower than 1.5 million /m2, but it will gradually return to the price of 2.5-3.5 tons of wheat /m2 in 2025-2030. 2025 is the turning point of Liaocheng real estate industry and the first turning point. There will be new inflection points in the later period, and all inflection points are downward inflection points.
Then some readers will ask, local governments have local administrative power and internal information, and developers are also rich. Don't they know these risks? I'm right-handed and I'm talking nonsense here. Do you bring shame on yourself? It is undeniable that they do have political resources, but the law of economic development cannot be interfered by any external force without authorization? Local governments and developers are now riding a tiger, in a dilemma! On the one hand, local governments want political achievements, and construction and development are the simplest and most prominent development methods: simple and rude, and quick results. On the other hand, as long as China's urbanization construction does not stop, developers will have an environment for profiteering.
Liaocheng is a place where ordinary people have no choice but to grow vegetables, work and buy and sell steel. The salary of medical students majoring in public security law can reach more than 1000 yuan, and other institutions and monopoly industries such as state-owned banks, Guodian and petrochemical can exceed about 7000 yuan. These excellent people in good units are good leeks for buying a house, and they are also the leeks that developers will focus on harvesting in the future.
Fifth, superfluous words.
In the next few years, the property tax will be fully levied. This is also the policy symbol of the end of urban development. Land finance turned to property tax.
In addition, there are several types of real estate that cannot be invested in the future:
1. Shopping. At present, the shops in the market have no investment value, and developers have added the foreseeable income in the next 50 years to the selling price. The number of shops is increasing every year. Almost every community and every newly-built building is equipped with many shops, but the population growth and consumption power are gradually declining, resulting in the contradiction between high housing prices and insufficient consumption power of the masses. What's more, shops in other provinces and cities are selling in Liaocheng, and viewing houses is free. What about trusteeship? This is a typical Ponzi scheme. This contradiction is a typical contradiction under the background of a well-off society in an all-round way in China, and it is also a typical socio-economic contradiction under the new situation in Socialism with Chinese characteristics.
2. apartment. The apartment is full of pits. Apartments are being sold all over the country. The apartment in Hebei is sold in Shandong, and the promotion is to stay in an internationally renowned hotel. If this is the case, if you take the money and the developer sells it to others in Gai Lou with your money, you will get less profit than interest. Moreover, in most cases, these propaganda are deceptive and simply cannot be realized.
3. Sea view room. Local people will not live in a "concept room" for nothing. In short, deceptive things.