CITIC Securities: the market into a key window, the differentiation of the report to lead the configuration
Market market into a key time window, this year's midterm season is in recent years the weakest macro-economic data and the biggest divergence of the performance of listed companies in the period of time, the three factors *** with the short-term market volatility; at the same time, the economy is still in the rapid recovery process, the tone of the monthly level of valuation repair market remains unchanged; structural factors are dominant, the report continued high boom and the emergence of an inflection point, the market has not yet changed. In the monthly level of valuation repair market tone remains unchanged; structural factors dominate the report continued high boom and inflection point of the industry is the most important configuration clues.
First of all, it is expected that the huge divergence in performance of the midterm report, easy to induce the plate and the industry between the rapid adjustment of positions, investors into the anxiety period, the stock of redemption has increased, after the entrance to the capital is easy to shake, the external disturbances began to increase, A shares in the sharp rebound is more likely to be affected in the mood. Secondly, the loose monetary tone did not turn, stable growth is more focused on the implementation of the previous policy, epidemic prevention and control into the precise and normalized stage, the impact on the economy is significantly weaker than in the second quarter. Finally, from the structure of the market, the old and new energy conversion is still the most core performance of the mid-season expected clues, in addition, the growth of manufacturing more bright spots, pharmaceutical differentiation is obvious, consumer attention to repair after the epidemic. Overall, we expect the pace of the market tends to slow down, around the growth of manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and consumer rotation revaluation, it is recommended to continue a balanced allocation.
CITIC CITIC Securities: the current round of gold pit market repair period is nearing its end, the market is expected to turn profit-driven
Epidemic gold pit market trends after the market, we believe that there will be a certain degree of similarity with the 2020 year, the difference lies in the second half of this year the recovery of the fundamentals may be weaker than the 2020 year, and easing policy Exit may be slower, the overall view of the second half of the year is the probability of a more oscillatory pattern. The recent market structure from divergence to convergence, also reflects the current round of gold pit market repair period tail signal. The report forecast on the recent market impact is still positive, pay attention to the subsequent evolution.
Overall, the market from the end of April, in the "golden pit" after the "sweet window period", the follow-up need to pay attention to the fundamentals of filling the pit back up whether to slow down as well as the financial market liquidity marginal changes, which have some changes in the recent initial signs, the market also from a unilateral repair period, the market is also the first sign of a change from a single side to a single side, the market is also the first time in the market. Signs of both recent changes in the initial signs of the market from the unilateral repair period has slowed down, the subsequent market is expected to turn more profit-driven. The recent midterm forecast season is unfolding, the performance will have a strong differentiation, the market from β to α. Focus on the industry: new energy, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, chemical industry, military industry, medical and so on.
Guotai Junan Securities: A shares are expected to come out of the relatively independent market, the pullback on the car to choose growth
Economic expectations are better but the economy is slow to recover, so look for the stock does not lie in the economic clues, but rather along the denominator end of the direction of the decline in the discount rate. People go to both ends of the spectrum, style differentiation will continue, pullback on the car to choose growth.
Overseas economic situation is not optimistic, but A shares are expected to come out of the relatively independent market. On the one hand, the current A-share market presents the "two ends of the human heart" feature, high risk appetite investors buy high-risk characteristics of science and technology growth stocks, low-risk characteristics of investors sell the value of the economic cycle related stocks, so the A-share out of the growth of stocks up and value of the characteristics of the stocks down. Meanwhile, A-share consumption, pharmaceuticals and technology growth market capitalization has increased in recent years, so the index is relatively desensitized to overseas factors. On the other hand, the U.S. and China's economic and financial cycles have begun to dislocate, and China's economic recovery and policy easing have become an important support for A-shares. In addition, the hawkish monetary policy stance is expected to loosen amid overseas recessionary concerns, and Chinese assets that are the first to improve in the earnings cycle will become the new **** knowledge for both internal and external investors. Looking forward, the team believes that the next is not switching from growth to value, style differentiation will continue, it is recommended to choose in the pullback with the economy, policy, overseas liquidity correlation is low and has a relatively independent boom growth plate.
Layout track stocks and growth stocks. Two major investment themes are expected to continue to come out of the excess, one is the stock economy under the expansion of competitive advantage, and the stock price has been fully adjusted track stocks; the other is the transformation of the background of the new energy, digital economy, autonomous and controllable science and technology growth stocks. Recommended: 1) high boom growth: electric vehicles / photovoltaic / wind power / military / computer Xinchuang / digital industry; 2) consumer medicine: liquor / hotels / hogs / consumer health care / CDMO / innovative medicines; 3) benefit from the cost decline and the completion cycle rebound: kitchen appliances / furniture / consumer building materials. The cycle is optimistic about the real estate completion chain.
Haitong Securities: consumer fundamentals or recovery in the second half of the third quarter, focusing on pharmaceuticals, food, agriculture
Market shock since early July stems from the fundamentals did not keep pace with the stock market, drawing on history, the bottom of the first wave of upward space and time has been obvious, the stage of consolidation is also normal, the reversal of the upward trend unchanged.
Growth: photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other medium-term trend upward, the short-term heat is high, further uptrend need better fundamental data, such as new energy vehicle sales, photovoltaic silicon prices and domestic and overseas demand. Consumption: valuation and institutional allocation ratio is low, drawing on 20 years, consumer data is expected to gradually improve, especially must consumer goods, such as medicine, food, agriculture. Referring to 2020, consumer fundamentals may recover in the second half of the third quarter.
China Merchants Securities: four major changes appeared, may change the market in the next stage of the operation of the logic and strong industry
We believe that the A-share is still in the process of oscillation up cycle, the market is currently in the layout around the "pan-renewable energy", but four major changes are worthy of attention. The changes are worth paying attention to, may change the market in the next stage of the operation of the logic and strong industry. Including the medium and long term social financing growth rate will continue to exceed expectations; whether the bulk of the continued weak run; domestic inflation warming will affect the monetary policy changes; after the disclosure of the overall performance of the second quarterly report, who is the direction of the strongest performance in the coming year.
Xingye Securities: the third quarter is still a long window, technology growth style is the most favorable
"Broad money, broad credit", the third quarter is still a long window. And, micro liquidity will also provide assistance. Style level, "wide money, wide credit" combination of technology growth style is the most favorable, consumer style also have excess returns.
Structurally, focusing on the "new half of the army" (photovoltaic modules / silicon silicon, military new materials / structural components, wind power machine / upstream materials, semiconductor materials / equipment, 5G fiber optic cable) + boom rebounded "medicine, home wine" (medicine, home appliances, home furnishings, liquor). Pharmaceuticals, home appliances, home furnishings, alcohol). In the medium and long term, the market style is expected to gradually return to science and technology growth. It is recommended to focus on "specializing in special new" six major directions: 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, ultra-high voltage, etc.), 2) a new generation of information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent numerically-controlled machine tools, robots, advanced railroad equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical care). innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.), and 6) food security (seed industry, biotechnology, fertilizers, etc.).
Guangdong Securities: A-share "this is a long time, the water to the drain", grasp the boom assets
The current round of "post-epidemic recovery" and the 2020 "The first time I've ever seen a woman in the world, I've seen a woman in the world, I've seen a woman in the world. Whether from the trading level or economic data, this round of post-epidemic recovery compared to 2020 are weak, "China's slow recovery" is still the main tone of this round of post-epidemic recovery. The impact on A shares, the molecular end of the total support is not enough to focus on structural highlights; the current need for more monetary and fiscal policy support to promote the recovery, the denominator end of the support is stronger - so the current A-share structural market characteristics are more pronounced, the style is biased in favor of benefiting from the discount rate downward growth stocks.
The biggest driver of A-share's independent market is the policymakers' commitment to revitalizing the economy. The decision makers are committed to restoring economic vitality to improve the risk appetite of the A-share market, while overseas presents a combination of "recession expectations + monetary tightening", we constructed the "four-quadrant framework of this trend" will continue to show the probability of "U.S. recession fast + China's slow recovery" combination, growth is superior, especially high boom certainty of large-cap growth stocks. It is recommended to configure the "policy warm wind" under the Chinese advantage of the three main lines of assets: (1) epidemic manufacturing and consumer repair: automobile (including new energy vehicles) / photovoltaic components / retail, etc.. (2) Re-leveraging: restrictive policy shift to marginal easing (internet media/innovative drugs/real estate); (3) Domestic pricing-led inflation chain: upstream resources/materials (coal/potash) and farming.
Anxin Securities: A-share short-term still "within the main", July strong performance is hard
Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell -0.93%, the end of the weekly five consecutive positive state. In the face of the European and American economic recession is expected, we maintain the current A shares "within the main" judgment. Can not rule out the possibility of short-term economic over-expectation repair, last week the central bank reverse repurchase scale tightened, the market began to return from the expected to reality, the process of shock adjustment, but does not change in the next shock to achieve the pivot upward movement of the general direction. We re-emphasize at this stage: strong performance is the hard way.
In summary, we maintain the judgment of the market in the oscillation to realize the pivot upward. Into July, the performance verification window period is approaching, strong performance line is the first choice of the market structural configuration. For the current four main "stable growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair, global inflation", we recommend still around the high prosperity + post epidemic repair, overweight industry: automotive (auto parts), pharmaceuticals, photovoltaic, food and beverage, aquaculture, military, coal, chemical, infrastructure.
Huaan Securities: industry rotation accelerated, certainty lies in the real estate chain and post-epidemic consumer repair
July 1 week industry rotation speed significantly accelerated, the market lacks a clear industry main line. This week will usher in two types of heavy data: one is the U.S. CPI data fear affect the Federal Reserve's subsequent path of interest rate hikes, and the second is the domestic economic data in the second quarter and June fear that the market on the degree of economic restoration and policy strength is expected to change.
But it should be noted that the domestic economy is stabilizing and improving, the overall stabilization of macro and micro liquidity fundamentals have not changed, if the fiscal incremental policy can continue to be introduced, the risk appetite is expected to be boosted internally, but there are too many external inhibitors, so the need to look for certainty in the industry rotation and cost-effective mainline, focusing on the two: one is the policy continues to relax the fundamentals of certainty of the reversal, boom Are upgrading the real estate and its upstream and downstream industries, such as downstream automobiles, home appliances, upstream cement, steel, glass and other building materials, and the second is the prevention of epidemic policy fine-tuning, short-term optimistic about the previous suppression of excessive late demand is expected to rapidly release of food and beverage valuation of the continued repair.
Huaxi Securities: A-share honeymoon period may come to an end for the time being, focus on three main lines of investment
Investment strategy: earnings and prices - the core factors of the A-share run in July. After the past two months of rebound, the overall market valuation has returned to nearly a decade near the median, the A-share honeymoon period may come to an end for the time being, there is a certain probability of entering the shock market. Follow-up focus on tracking three aspects, the development of the epidemic in Shanghai, the trend of pig prices and the disclosure of corporate reports. In the epidemic has been effectively controlled, no longer occur in this year's March-May large-scale recurrence of the premise, we believe that the A shares running down the bottom.
Industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to three main lines of investment: 1) benefited from the national policy focus on supporting the high boom plate, such as "new energy (photovoltaic, ultra-high voltage, energy storage), new energy vehicles and the upstream and downstream"; 2) benefited from the price increase related to the "aquaculture"; 3) the price increase related to the "aquaculture"; 3) the price increase related to the "aquaculture"; 3) the price increase related to the "aquaculture". "; 3) valuation back to a relatively reasonable range of consumer goods, such as "medicine, food and drink" and so on.