The Russian Federation, also known as Russia, ranks first in the world with a land area of 17075400 square kilometers. As of June 5438+February 2002 1, the population was 1.453 million, ranking seventh in the world (Russian country profile, transferred from the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, August 200314). After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia accepted all the reform prescriptions recommended by the United States and other western countries, adopted "shock therapy" and carried out radical economic reforms with large-scale privatization and comprehensive liberalization as the core, and its economy declined year after year. From 65438 to 0999, under the comprehensive influence of internal and external factors, such as the devaluation of the ruble, the rise of oil prices in the international market, the drastic adjustment of economic policies by the Russian government, and the strengthening of national macro-control, primakov's economy showed a trend of improvement. In 2000, Putin continued to carry out sound social and economic policies, and took advantage of the favorable situation of the once-rising international oil price to vigorously expand foreign energy markets. Therefore, Russia's economic improvement momentum has been further consolidated, and macroeconomic indicators have risen sharply. In 200 1 year, the Russian government further deepened the social and economic liberalization reform, and the economic growth rate was lower than that in 2000, but it continued to maintain the recovery growth momentum and improved the quality of growth. In 2002, Russia's political situation was further stabilized, and economic development became the central task of the authorities and the knowledge of the ruling and opposition parties. In this favorable environment, the government has further strengthened economic legislation, standardized economic activities, and improved the investment and business environment to some extent. At the same time, taking advantage of the rise in international oil prices, a large number of petrodollars were obtained. However, Russia's economic growth is still greatly influenced by the international energy market, and the task of industrial restructuring is still very arduous.
In 2002, Russia's main export commodities were oil, natural gas, electricity, coal, coke, machinery and equipment, ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals. (Russian State Customs Committee, 2003). In 2002, the trade volume between Russia and EU countries accounted for 36.6% of Russia's total foreign trade, of which CIS countries accounted for 17%, Asia-Pacific countries accounted for 16.4%, and Eastern European countries accounted for 12.9% (Russian State Statistical Committee, Russian social and economic situation in 2002, 2003).
Two. General situation of oil and gas production, reserves and oil and gas trade in Russia
Russia is the largest independent country after the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, but its economy has collapsed and its economic influence in the world is relatively small. However, Russia is a big country with oil, especially natural gas resources in the world. According to estimates from different sources, by the mid-1990s, the proven recoverable reserves of Russian oil were 7 billion to 10 billion tons, accounting for 8% to 13% of the world's proven recoverable reserves. Russia's proven recoverable oil reserves in 2000 were 6.625 billion tons (Table 8- 1), and its distribution is shown in Figure 8- 1. Compared with proven recoverable reserves 1999, there is no change.
Table 8- 1 Russian oil and gas reserves change table (unit: 100 million tons of oil; Natural gas is trillions of cubic meters)
42% of the world's natural gas resources and 34% of natural gas reserves are in Russia, and its proven recoverable natural gas reserves in 2000 were 48. 1 1 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 38% ~ 45% of the world.
There are 133500 oil wells and 6400 gas wells in the Russian oil industry system. Russia's oil industry has been seriously declining for many years, and its oil output has decreased by about 25% from 1992 to 2000. Russian petroleum industry is a capital-intensive, complex production technology process and vertically integrated multi-professional industry. In terms of crude oil production, there are 130 oil joint-stock companies in Russia, and their production levels are shown in Table 8-2. However, since 2000, the number of oil wells stopped production in Russia has greatly decreased, and the number of new wells put into production has greatly increased.
Figure 8- 1 Distribution Map of Oil and Gas Areas in Russia
(According to Li Guoyu 200 1)
Table 8-2 Production Status of Oil Exploitation Enterprises in Russian Federation from 65438 to 0998
(According to the State Statistical Committee of the Russian Federation, 1999)
In 2002, Russia's crude oil output reached 379.63 million tons, 310.4 million tons more than that in 2006, about 9% (Sun Yongxiang and Liu Qianru, Review and Prospect of Russian Fuel and Energy Industry in One Year, International Petroleum Economy, No.4, 2003). Russia's oil output in 2000 was 323 million tons, 8.94% higher than that of 1999. In 2002, Russia's natural gas output reached 594.9 billion cubic meters, an increase of 654.38+03.7 billion cubic meters over the previous year, an increase of about 2.4%. In 2000, the natural gas output reached 545 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 20.97% over the previous year (Table 8-3).
Table 8-3 Russian oil and gas production (unit: 100 million tons of oil; Natural gas 1 100 million cubic meters)
(According to BP 20065438+0; Russian State Statistical Committee, 2002)
Russia supplies more than 300 billion cubic meters of gas to its domestic market every year, and exports about 654.38+02 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe through pipelines, accounting for 25.7% of the European natural gas market demand. In addition, it also exported nearly 80 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the CIS and Baltic countries. 198, Russia * * * supplied 590 billion cubic meters of natural gas at home and abroad, of which 59% was supplied to the Russian Federation, 25% to the European market, and 16% to the CIS and Baltic countries. 198 Russian natural gas trade volume was1194 billion cubic meters,199 was125.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5. 1%. 199 Russian natural gas exports to Europe increased by 5 1%, reaching12.55 million cubic meters. The gas exported to Central Europe decreased by 5.2% to 39.3 billion cubic meters, and exported to Western European countries (including Turkey) to 86.2 billion cubic meters (an increase over 198 10.7%). The completion of the Polish section of the Asia (Maldives)-Europe (Europe) natural gas pipeline and the expansion of the German section have increased the export capacity to Germany. At present, Germany is the largest importer of Russian natural gas, with an annual import capacity of 1.9 1 100 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.998/.04%. With the entry into force of the new natural gas import contract, Turkey's natural gas imports from Russia increased by 30.3% to 8.8 billion cubic meters. Greece has also greatly increased its natural gas imports from Russia, reaching 654.38+0.5 billion cubic meters.
Russia is a big oil producer and a big exporter of oil and natural gas. Every year, 654.38+030.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas and more than 654.38+000 million tons of oil are exported through pipelines. A large amount of its oil was shipped to Italy, Ireland, Germany, Britain, Switzerland and Hungary. In addition, it also exports oil to Greece, Austria, Poland, Spain, Canada, Denmark, the United States, Turkey, Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Netherlands, Belgium, Cuba, Malta and Cyprus. Europe accounts for 95% of Russian oil exports, of which Central Europe accounts for 46%, Southern Europe for 26%, Eastern Europe for 2 1% and Northern Europe for 2%. In 2002, Russian crude oil exports reached 65438+845 million tons, an increase of 13.8% over the previous year. The export volume of gasoline reached 58 million tons, an increase of14.3%; The export volume of heavy oil reached 25.8 million tons, up by 38.7%; Natural gas exports reached 654.38+086.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3% (Sun Yongxiang et al., 2003).
By the end of 2000, the total length of Russian oil and gas pipelines was 265,438+300,000 kilometers, and the total amount of oil and gas transported in 2002 was 2,099.7 billion tons kilometers (Russian State Statistical Committee, 2002).
At present, Russia is trying to export Russian oil to the Asia-Pacific market. As early as the middle and late 1990s, China and Russia signed a memorandum that Russia would provide oil to China and jointly contribute to the construction of an oil pipeline. However, there has been a long-standing debate about whether Russia exports oil to China (Angarsk-anniversary) or the Pacific coast (Angarsk-Nakhodka, see Figure 8-2), and the Russian government has been doing so. This is mainly because the Japanese government wants to get some oil and gas benefits from it. In order to compete with China, Japanese officials have frequently indicated to Russia in various ways that Japan is prepared to take Russia as its fixed oil importer and change the current situation of over-reliance on oil supply from Persian Gulf countries. At present, the Persian Gulf is the largest importer of Japanese oil, accounting for 82% of its total imports, but in the future, Japan promises to import nearly 50 million tons of oil from Russia every year, equivalent to a quarter of its annual imports. When visiting Moscow in 2003, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi indicated that Japan was willing to participate in the construction of the Angarsk-Nakhodka oil pipeline with a total length of 3,765 kilometers and a cost of 3.8 billion to 5.6 billion US dollars, and promised to invest 8 billion to/kloc-0.0 billion US dollars in the Russian oil industry in the next few years.
Figure 8-2 Schematic Diagram of Northeast Asia Oil Pipeline Scheme
(According to Sina.com, 2003)
Third, Russia's oil and gas consumption
1. Russia's economic growth and oil and gas consumption
Since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, Russia's economy has been sluggish, with low or negative economic growth, so Russia's natural gas and oil consumption has also entered a downturn (Table 8-4 and Table 8-5).
Table 8-4 Russian GNP per capita and its economic growth (unit: USD/person)
(According to energy policy research, April 2000)
Table 8-5 Russian oil and gas consumption (unit: million tons of oil; Natural gas 1 100 million cubic meters)
In recent years, the annual natural gas consumption in Russia is 377.2 billion cubic meters, and the oil consumption is 65.438+23 million tons.
2. Russian oil and gas consumption structure
Russia's oil and gas consumption level is high, especially natural gas is as high as 50%. See Table 8-6 for the structure of primary energy consumption in Russia. See Figure 8-3 for Russian natural gas consumption structure.
Table 8-6 1998 ~ 1999 Russian primary energy consumption and structure
(According to China Mineral Information Bulletin-Energy and Minerals Album.2001)
Fourth, Russia's oil and gas security strategy.
1. Russia's reserves and its energy security policy
Russia is a big energy producer, and the oil and gas it produces not only meets its own needs, but also is exported in large quantities. Therefore, Russia does not have to worry about the supply security of its oil and gas consumption in recent years, but there are still many oil and gas security problems to be solved in Russia at present.
Figure 8-3 Russian natural gas consumption structure
Source: Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation, No.6, 2000.
Russia's oil and gas security problems are:
1) The domestic oil output gradually decreased from 500 million tons to 300 million tons from 190 to 199 and 10. But it is impossible to reduce exports quickly.
2) Since 1980s, Russia's natural gas and oil production and regional structure have changed greatly, mainly because the proportion of oil and gas production in Russia's western Siberia and Ural-Volga regions began to decline. So far, the production reserves are very high. In the next 5- 10 years, Russia must find enough resources in its oil and gas field to replace or maintain the steady growth of national oil and gas production and export demand. The new oil and gas areas are mainly located in Jimano-Bojola area, eastern Siberia and the Far East, Caspian Sea area and northern continental shelf, but their prospects are far less than those of the old oil and gas areas, and the development cost is quite high.
3) Because of the large proportion of Russian oil and gas exports, it is greatly influenced by oil price fluctuations and external markets, which directly threatens Russia's foreign exchange and economic base.
4) At present, Russia is also facing the payment problem of pipeline transportation through Ukraine Island and Eastern Europe, and the construction of new channels is facing the problem of funds. The Asia-Pacific region has huge demand potential, which provides a huge market for developing resources in East Siberia and the Far East. However, the market development in this region is still facing huge problems, which need the close cooperation and solution of the government and industry.
Russia's energy strategy is mainly embodied in the energy strategic plan (2 1) in the first 20 years of the 20th century. The general idea is to re-recognize and determine the energy strategy and policy from the perspective of Russia's overall long-term development and national security. In the next 20 years, the strategic shift and intensive development of oil and gas industry will be the main content.
Pay close attention to oil and gas exploration and development. Russia's current oil and gas resources are mainly distributed in western Siberia. According to statistics, 65% of Russia's remaining proven recoverable reserves of oil and 85% of its remaining proven recoverable reserves of natural gas are located in western Siberia. Russia's huge reserves of oil and gas resources are in eastern Siberia, northern western Siberia and continental shelf. According to the current plan, the output ratio of eastern Siberia can be increased to 15% ~ 20%. Due to the comparative cost advantage of oil and gas exploration and development at home and abroad, Russia has carried out and will continue to carry out oil and gas exploration and development activities in Central Asia, Iraq, Libya, India and some countries in South America. Secondly, at the beginning of this century, Russia will also build the second natural gas pipeline to Europe, the oil and gas pipeline to the Asia-Pacific region and the pipeline to control the oil and gas export in Central Asia.
While maintaining a basically stable oil supply, we will actively develop and utilize natural gas resources. Russian natural gas development strategy;
1) Develop natural gas resources in western Siberia, especially in Yamal Peninsula.
2) Expand natural gas export, consolidate the original natural gas market share in Europe, and open up new natural gas markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
3) Further improve the gasification level in urban and rural areas, especially in rural areas, give priority to meeting the natural gas demand in commercial, civil and agricultural fields, and expand the natural gas consumption of power stations.
4) Further repair and utilize the existing natural gas pipeline network and speed up the construction of new long-distance pipelines.
2. Storage and transportation of oil and gas in Russia
Russian pipeline transportation accounts for about 60% of the national freight turnover and 30% of the freight volume. Russian oil transportation companies and refined oil companies are responsible for the transportation of crude oil and refined oil. These two companies were established by the decision of the President of the Russian Federation 1 July 19921day.
Oil is supplied to domestic consumers through oil pipelines and exported abroad. The total length of Russian oil pipelines exceeds 48,000 kilometers. With the decline of Russian oil production and pipeline transportation capacity (equivalent to general design capacity), the efficiency and function of regional oil pipeline system are weakened. The aging of oil transmission trunk lines is more serious. In order to ensure the reliability of the pipeline, it is necessary to check the pipeline lines and pumping station equipment frequently, and to carry out in-pipe diagnosis is an important strategy to improve the efficiency of this work.
It is not difficult to see from the data in Table 8-7 that the large-scale Russian oil transportation industry is backward compared with Western Europe. In addition to natural climatic conditions, this is largely determined by the distance. For example, the fuel and electricity consumed by Russia and Europe account for more than 60% of the national consumption, while the self-produced primary energy only accounts for 46%. 1994, Russia transported crude oil and refined oil 1 ton, with an average transportation distance of 2133km, France 300km, Britain147km and Norway1kloc-0/0km.
Table 8-7 Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation in Russia and Western European Countries
(According to new york/Geneva Annual Report on Transport Statistics in Europe and North America, 1996)
The total pipeline length of Russia's unified gas supply network is 14.88× 104 km (excluding gas distribution pipeline), including 5,508 trunk valves, more than 2,000 rivers crossing, 22 underground gas storages in the network, and 250 gas fields, gas transmission trunk lines and underground gas storages. See Table 8 for gas transmission trunk lines with different diameters.
Table 8-8 Proportion of Russian Natural Gas Pipelines with Different Diameters
(According to new york/Geneva Annual Report on Transport Statistics in Europe and North America, 1996)
3. Russia's energy geopolitical strategy
The Government of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Fuel and Energy put forward that the main goal of the current foreign energy strategy is to make the country participate in equal international energy cooperation by diplomatic means, consolidate Russia's position in the world energy market, and at the same time ensure national energy security under the circumstances of foreign economic and geopolitical changes.
Therefore, the energy geopolitical strategy determined by the Russian Federation is:
1) puts CIS countries at the top of its energy geopolitics. Russia attaches great importance to developing cooperation with CIS countries. Russia's energy strategy for CIS countries is to develop and deepen the integration process.
One of the main purposes of the United States is to fight against international terrorism and send troops to stay in Central Asia, penetrate Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region, and ensure the interests of the United States in energy, especially oil and gas, in Central Asia. This is a huge challenge for Russia. Therefore, the top priority of Russia's energy diplomacy in this region is to participate in multilateral and bilateral energy cooperation among CIS countries in order to prevent further infiltration of the United States in this region. At the same time, we must ensure the interests of newly independent countries and maximize energy cooperation on the basis of balanced interests.
2) Ensure that Europe is a traditional energy exporter of Russia. Russia's main task in this region is to maintain its competitiveness in neighboring European, African and Central Asian countries. Make Russian energy enterprises participate in the sales of energy products in eastern and southeastern Europe, the shareholding system and privatization of local energy enterprises, and ensure that Russian energy is exported to western Europe at preferential prices and reliable conditions; Establish a fully functional infrastructure invested by European partners.
3) The Middle and Near East is not only Russia's biggest competitor in the world energy market, but also its potential financial resources. Russia's main energy geopolitics in this region is to create conditions for Russian energy companies to participate in energy projects in this region; Consolidate Russia's position in Turkey's energy market and maintain Russia's leading role in supplying gas to Turkey.
4) Take South Asia and Asia-Pacific as special areas of Russian energy geopolitics. Russia will expand energy cooperation with countries in the region in order to find an ideal energy export market.
Russia is stepping up negotiations with China to build oil and gas pipelines to China, especially the Northeast Asian market. The pipelines currently being demonstrated are:
Figure 8-4 Geographical Distribution Map of Planning Pipelines in Northeast Asia
(According to Hu Jianyi 200 1)
Route 1: Irkutsk → Manzhouli → Harbin → Shenyang → Dalian → Incheon.
Route 2: A. Natural gas is transported to South Sakhalinsk at the southern tip of sakhalin island by pipeline. After liquefaction, it is sold to Japan, South Korea, China and other coastal areas in the form of liquefied natural gas, in which Japan is the main consumer market and directly participates in the LNG market competition in Southeast Asia.
B Sakhalin Island → Vladivostok → Tumen River area → North Korea → South Korea.
Route 3: Irkutsk Region → Ulaanbaatar → Beijing → Rizhao → South Korea (Japan)
Route 4: Yakutia → Heihe → Daqing → Shenyang.
See Figure 8-4 for the above pipeline plan.
Russia not only develops bilateral cooperative relations with China, Japan, South Korea and other developed countries, but also develops multilateral relations.
5) The United States is not only a competitor of Russia, but also a rare partner. Russia has adopted the method of fighting and uniting with the United States. Whether in the Caspian Sea, the Middle East and other "hot spots" or in Russia's domestic oil-producing areas, they are competing with the United States for "confidentiality rights" for the needs of their own oil and gas industry development and strategic considerations.