The US-China trade dispute has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life, and this round of US-China trade disputes profoundly embodies the structural changes in the global economy, the structural changes in the economic and trade relations between China and the United States and the far-reaching impacts of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which has its own long-term and inevitability. With the passage of time, the trade dispute slowly evolved into a trade war, or even an economic war in which a conservative power strangles a rising power, which will have an impact on China's long-term, established track of progressive development. The bottom line of the trade war launched by the United States stems from its control and occupation of the core technologies and scientific frontiers of the high-tech industry, and aims to maintain the hegemonic position of the United States in global technology, slow down or even interrupt the development of China's high-tech industry, and maintain an overwhelming advantage. The United States launched this trade war against our country, with long-term and strategic.
I. Interpretation of the list
On June 15, the U.S. government released a list of goods subject to tariffs and imposed 25% tariffs on about 50 billion U.S. dollars of imports from China, of which the U.S. List I of about 34 billion U.S. dollars of commodities has been implemented since July 6, and U.S. List II of about 16 billion U.S. dollars of commodities has begun to consult the public, and is expected to take effect at the end of August. The U.S. is mainly targeting China's science and technology and "Made in China 2025" related areas to impose tariffs, mainly related to aerospace, communications technology, robotics, industrial machinery, new materials, etc., cell phones, TVs and other consumer goods are not included.
On June 16, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice to impose tariffs of 25% on 659 items of about 50 billion U.S. dollars of imports originating in the U.S., of which 545 items of about 34 billion U.S. dollars of commodities such as agricultural products, automobiles, aquatic products, and so on, "List I" has been implemented since July 6, and the time of implementation of tariffs for the remaining commodities, "List II", will be announced separately. The tariffs imposed by the Chinese side involve the amount of goods, tariff rates and the effective time, etc., on a par with that of the United States. List II mainly includes chemicals, medical equipment, energy products, etc. The final measures and the effective time will be determined according to the situation in the United States.
Compared with the list of goods announced in the previous round, the United States has removed consumer goods such as monitors and color TVs from the list, and added industrial goods such as integrated circuits and electric motors and electrical equipment, while China has removed airplanes and added oil and agricultural products.
The U.S. list, accounting for a high proportion of China's exports of products: glass products (63%), aircraft and spacecraft (33%), optical, photographic, medical and other equipment (20%), inorganic chemicals (18%), nuclear reactors, boilers, mechanical appliances (17%), motors/electrical equipment (11%); accounted for China's production of the proportion of the top products: aircraft and spacecraft ( 5.3%), motor/electrical equipment (3.5%), optical, photographic, medical and other equipment (3.1%).
The Trump administration has also released a plan to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, with a list of targeted products involving apparel, TV parts, and refrigerators, with tariffs of about 10 percent, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said in a statement on July 10th. That means the trade war could escalate further.
Two, cause analysis
(A) Huge trade deficit
The direct cause of the outbreak of the trade war between China and the United States is the trade imbalance. According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China's trade surplus with the United States in 2017 was 1.87 trillion yuan (about 298.7 billion U.S. dollars). And according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S.-China goods trade deficit increased by 8.1 percent to $375.2 billion in 2017, accounting for 46 percent of the entire U.S. goods trade deficit.
The huge trade deficit between China and the United States, the United States blamed on China's lack of openness in some areas, the higher import tariffs on some products, the government to give some state-owned enterprises subsidies to protect the development of childish industries, and other reasons, objectively, also contributes to the so-called "Chinese workers robbed the American workers of their jobs," the voice of the U.S. community in the United States to get wide support. Widely supported by all walks of life in the United States. Therefore, the U.S. hopes to force China to further open its market to the U.S. through the trade war.
(2) Technological high ground
The deep-seated purpose of the trade war is to try to contain the rise of China. China has formulated and introduced "Made in China 2025", aiming at a new generation of information technology, high-end equipment, new materials, biomedicine and other strategic priorities, wanting to make a comprehensive breakthrough in high-end manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation. 2018, China's total investment in research and development is expected to exceed the United States for the first time, and in the future, if it catches up with the industry, the division of labor between China and the United States will be shifted from a vertical division of labor to a horizontal division of labor, which will lead to the formation of a frontal collision with the United States industry. The first time I've ever seen this, I've seen a lot of people who are not in the same boat.
Technological leadership is the foundation of the United States is strong, "Made in China 2025" in the field of core technology to challenge the United States advantage, therefore, the United States trade war against the "Made in China 2025" of the leading industries to levy preventive tariffs, is aimed at the development of China's future high-tech, high-precision and sophisticated industries set up a defense to curb the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, to restrain the development of high-tech industries, do not allow China's R & D and high-end manufacturing to form the same as the United States. R & D and high-end manufacturing to the United States to form the same level of competitiveness, so as to comprehensively inhibit the rise of China.
(3) development model confrontation
In the view of the United States, China and the United States economic and trade relations are abnormal, the key is that China has not honored its commitments, China's model, China's road and the U.S. model, the U.S. road is diametrically opposed to each other. The United States adhere to the private property rights + free market economic model, China adhere to the government leadership + state-owned enterprises dominated socialist market economy model. There is also a big difference in the choice of the democratic way and the road of the rule of law. And the Asian Investment Bank, the internationalization of the yuan, the "Belt and Road" initiative, together with the "four self-confidence", is also interpreted by the West as China's intention to expand the Chinese model, China's road in the international arena, a comprehensive challenge to the U.S. model and U.S. road as well as the Western-dominated world order.