The Path to the Future
Contents
Author's Introduction
Media Recommendations
Table of Contents
Preface
Digest
[Edited]The Path to the Future
--Foreseeing Power:A Revolution of Corporate Thinking in the Face of the Great Changes of a Globalized Economy (THE POWER TO PREDICT)
Author: (USA) (Vivek Ranadive) Vivek Ranadive
Translator: Nancy Lei
Market Price: ￥ 32.00
-Publisher: Oriental Publishing House
-Pages: 202
-Publication Date: 2008
- ISBN: 9787506032971
- Edition: 1 edition
- Binding: Paperback
- Opening: 16
- Foreign Name: THE POWER TO PREDICT
[Editorial]Description
The businesses we have created are based on the application of a simple concept. business are using a simple concept to solve complex problems. FedEx used the concept of center radiation to solve the inefficiency of point-to-point shipment delivery, while Rana Dave used the general concept of software layer integration to solve the inefficiency of point-to-point interfacing between software applications that plagues most organizations.
I believe that Ranadive is on the right track, in that we can harness the information that drives business and gain new perspectives and insights from it; in particular, we have the ability to analyze real-time information and detect meaningful patterns in order to prevent problems before they occur, or to take advantage of opportunities before they occur.
[edit]About the Author
Vivek Ranadev is the founder, president, and chief executive officer of TIBCO, a leading business integration and process management software company dedicated to helping organizations practice real-time business. A frequently interviewed expert in the media, Ranadev is a rallying keynote speaker for the Real-Time Computing program on NBC Business News, and has written for The Economist, Fast Enterprise Magazine, and Red Herring, the leading U.S. magazine for investment in innovation and technology.
[Editorial]Media Recommendations
A revolution in business thinking has unfolded that will change the way businesses are run forever. The solution to thriving in this uncertain world is to figure out how to run a business or a government with a predictive perspective.
In the future, every organization will have the ability to see the future early enough to take the necessary action or to capitalize on the business opportunities that surface. This book inspires managers to think about how technology and information can enhance the effectiveness of historical analysis and business intelligence to produce better results.
--Frederick W. Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer, FedEx Express, USA
Every globalized business faces increasingly complex management challenges. This vision of leveraging organizational assets, outlined by Rana Dave, serves as a guideline for a forward-looking approach to the threats and opportunities we face.
-- Indra Nooyi, President and CFO, PepsiCo
How can organizations continue to differentiate themselves when the impact of technological innovations, real-time information, and globalization has reduced their competitive advantage? This book shows us how top corporate thinkers have successfully challenged themselves to help transform their organizations.
--Thomas H. Grothe, Chief Executive Officer, Reuters
[edit]Table of Contents
Recommended Preface: Mastering the Business Opportunity That Surfaces ／1
Preface ／3
CHAPTER ONE: WHY PREDICTION
A WHOLE NEW BALLSHIP GAME/ 002
What is Predictive Business / 005
The Drivers of Real-Time Business / 006
Transitioning to Predictive Business / 010
You Get What You Put in / 011
A New Kind of Leader / 014
Chapter 2 Triumphs of Real-Time Business
The Appeal of Real-Time / 017
The Key is in the Customer /022
Characteristics of the Real-Time Business /024
Building the Structure /029
The Birth of Real-Time /030
Proliferating the Information Bus /032
Chapter 3 Predictive Power
Predicting the Now /037
The Science of Prediction /038
The Probability of Events /039
Applying the Rules, Understanding the Correlations /040
Winners and Losers /046
The Secret Recipe for Deliciousness-Business Processes /047
Positioning Business Process Management /049
The $3 Trillion Business Opportunity ／050
How to Apply the New Principles of Forecasting to Business Operations /051
Chapter 4 Excellence in Financial Services
Run with the Money /053
Real-Time Transmission at the Speed of Light /055
Fast-Flowing Data /055
A Change of Pace /056
Do You Know Your Bank? Do You Know Your Bank / 059
The Future of Consumer Finance / 061
Customer Privacy / 062
Chapter 5 Responding to Calls from the Telecommunications Industry
Where to Find POTS / 064
Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) Services / 065
Interactive Internet Television / 067
Service-Level Agreements in the Business / 069
Unification of Services / 070
End-to-End Visibility / 072
Southwestern Bell Versus Comcast / 073
Next Steps for the Telecommunications Industry / 076
Chapter 6 Transportation and Logistics - Delivery Services in Progress
FedEx - The Model Student of Logistics /078
Bucking the Trend Southwest Airlines /081
The Light-Asset Logistics Industry /083
Where the Elements of Prediction Are /085
Chapter 7 The Power of Retail and Consumer Goods
Giants of Retail / 087
RFID: Retail in Real Time / 089
New Pathways to Market / 091
Multiple Touchpoints / 092
Managing Customers Proactively / 093
The Paradoxes of Size in Retail / 098
CHAPTER 8 Forecasting Business in Healthcare and Life Sciences
Why It's So Late / 103
The Veterans Administration / 106
It's Just Getting Started / 108
Outpatient Medical Care in 2015 / 110
Keeping Devices Going / 112
Moving Toward Wireless Networks / 113
Is RFID Technology Really a Panacea / 114
Chapter 9: Energy Efficiency
Switching Electricity Supplies / 117
Never Going Offline / 118
Peak Oil Production / 121
The Future of the Digital Oilfield / 122
Oil Trading / 125
Energy Trading / 125
Predicting the Application of Business to Energy 140
The Silver Bullet /143
Prophecy on the Battlefield /144
Chapter 11 Building Momentum on the Path to Prediction
Leadership /146
Putting Customers First /147
Combining IT and Business Strategies /148
Best Practices /150
Superior Supply Chain /155
Building Blocks /158
Commanding the Orchestra /161
CHAPTER TWELVE A Journey Into the Future
Proprietary Nouns ／17l
......
[EDITORIAL] PROLOGUE
A few years ago. I met VivekRanadiv soon after our mutual companies had business dealings. As I got to know him, I also found some interesting similarities in our experiences as entrepreneurs.
The businesses we founded both used a simple concept to solve complex problems. FedEx used the concept of hub-and-spoke to solve the inefficiencies of point-to-point shipments, while Rana Dave used the general concept of software layer integration to solve the inefficiencies of point-to-point interfaces between software applications that plague most organizations.
I believe that Ranadive is on the right track, in that we can harness the information that drives business and gain new perspectives and insights from it; in particular, we have the ability to analyze real-time information and detect meaningful patterns in order to prevent problems before they occur, or to take advantage of opportunities before they occur.
[Edit]Digest
Chapter 1: Why Predictions
Over the past decade, cutting-edge companies have introduced the concept of Real-Time Business into their standardized operating procedures, based on gathering information about what is happening in the moment, to help them react quickly to the ever-changing business environment. Today, we are seeing a shift in business operations towards what I call Predic-tiVeBusiness in order to develop an ability to see the opportunities before they happen and to pre-empt them. While real-time business is about the speed of doing things, predictive business has to do with pushing the boundaries and doing things that have not been possible in the past.
As Malcolm Gladwell argues in The Tipping Point, a single event that builds to a critical level becomes the tipping point for a massive movement that opens up a whole new page. I believe that in the real-time business world, we have reached a critical mass in our ability to capture, analyze, and recognize patterns in dynamic data, and now we have the ability to predict future business events with greater accuracy, and we have hit that tipping point. Having the ability to act with agility and flexibility before an event occurs is a huge advantage for business.
Predicting the future of business will change the way we do business across a wide range of industries, and will have the same scope and depth of impact on business practices as the introduction of corporate networks connecting desktops and servers did in the 1980s. Before we had computer networks, each desktop computer was an island, and information was passed from employee to employee in recyclable envelopes. Today, it's hard to imagine the inefficiency and slow pace of the pre-network era. But the Web didn't just make business faster and more efficient; it changed people's jobs and responsibilities, disappearing many functions from the organizational structure and expanding others; and it lowered the decision-making cycle, allowing companies to interact more closely with suppliers and vendors to improve the quality of customer service.
Similarly, predictive business predicts that organizations will reconcile their business processes in new ways because of the benefits of foresight. For example, an organization may be better able to anticipate and prevent the loss of a customer due to the intervention of a competitor, increase production in anticipation of an uptick in demand for a particular commodity, or take preventive action in anticipation of a possible future risk. Predictive business has revolutionized the areas in which operators can excel in change management, and has allowed companies to invest in new product development with a greater degree of certainty of success because they will know what their customers want. More importantly, Predictive Business gives companies a better way to capitalize on opportunities and avoid costly business traps.
A whole new ballgame
Predictive business is a whole new ballgame, one that is not just about collecting more information or using more sophisticated analysis; rather, it is about using a combination of technology, business techniques, and integrated processes to make a company's resources more effective. Taking sports as an example can help us deepen our understanding of predicting the value of business
.