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The accelerated development of intelligence and automation will usher in a new wave of growth in the number of applications and specifications of sensors, with image perception as the top priority.
Sensor applications, driven by smartphones and hardware, have seen rapid growth over the past decade; as we enter the 5GAIoT period, where the Internet of Everything is gradually being realized and autonomous driving and robotics are approaching the singularity of commercial scale, sensors, which play the role of senses and nerve endings, are expected to usher in a new wave of growth.
As most AI relies on image recognition for decision-making, optical sensors are not only the core entry point for information acquisition, but also the converter and the main bridge between the real world and the mirror universe as the recent meta-universe concept has carved out a digitized virtual world with long slopes and thick snow on the industry track.
CMOS occupies half of the optoelectronic components, driving the overall market close to 10% compound growth in the next 5 years.
According to IC insights, the OSD semiconductor market size of $88.3 billion in 2020 (accounting for 20% of the overall semiconductor market), of which optoelectronic components, sensors, and discrete devices accounted for 50% / 19% / 31%, the OSD market is expected to reach 132.6 billion in 25 years, with a CAGR of 8.5%.
20 years of optoelectronic components in CMOS / LED lighting / laser emitter / coupler / CCD market size of 19 billion / 13.3 billion / 2.2 billion / 1.9 billion / 1.2 billion, the overall market is expected to reach 68.3 billion in 25 years, the CAGR of 9.2%, mainly by the image sensors, machine vision, face recognition, 3D depth perception, automated driving images, solid-state Lighting, optical communication demand driven.
CMOS is the core component of optical sensing, occupying nearly half of the cost of mobile phone/vehicle camera modules.
Generally speaking, CMOS/lens/VCM/assembly account for about 40%/20%/10%/15% of the total cost of the camera, and CMOS, as the core component of optical sensing, accounts for nearly 50% of the cost of camera modules, LIDAR, and other optical systems.
In the future, with the promotion of high-definition image, high pixel or drive CMOS cost share further increase.
CMOS downstream applications from cell phones gradually shifted to automotive, industrial security and VRAR.
According to Omida, in 2020, CMOS downstream applications in the cell phone, industrial security and automotive applications accounted for 73%/11%/6% (according to the market size); less than 5MP/6-12MP/33-50MP. 13-32MP/33-50MP/higher than 51MP accounted for 27%/32%/16%/14%/11% respectively.
Along with the rise of autonomous driving (L3 is expected to reach 12% in 25 years), it is expected to replicate the trend of multi-camera upgrades brought about by smartphones (single-vehicle camera 1 8, LiDAR 0 1).
In addition, along with the best-selling cost-effective Oculus 2 and Apple's launch of the MR headset next year, the next 5 years ARVR is also expected to bring potential incremental (25 years is expected to ship up to 30 million, a single camera 8).
Replicating the growth trend of smartphones, the car market size can be comparable to cell phones in the long term.
Currently, a single car camera is generally assembled 1-2 (1 front view + 1 rear view). However, in terms of the trend of autonomous driving, a complete ADAS system should generally include at least 6 cameras (1 front view, 1 rear view, 4 surround view), and the number of cameras in high-end smart cars can be up to 8-12.
According to IDC's forecast, in 2024, the global shipment of self-driving cars exceeds 55 million, and the shipment of in-vehicle cameras exceeds 440 million, with a 2019-2024 CAGR of over 20%.
At the same time, the value volume of in-vehicle cameras far exceeds that of cell phone cameras, and despite the low pixel specification requirements of in-vehicle cameras, the long-term market size is expected to be comparable to that of cell phones due to the security that makes its CMOS price much higher than that of cell phone CMOS.
Automatic driving multi-sensor trend, LiDAR for optical important incremental, 25 years of shipments or up to 300 million, the market size of more than 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.
At present, the mainstream automatic driving sensors mainly include on-board camera, ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar and LiDAR. As the level of automatic driving increases, the number of on-board cameras and radars continues to rise.
According to TSR forecast, the global market size of in-vehicle LiDAR in 2025 is about 1.5 billion dollars, with a CAGR of over 80%. Lidar current price of more than 3000 U.S. dollars, with the maturity of the industrial chain is expected to improve, the cost is expected to 2030 is expected to fall to 500 U.S. dollars, after the price reduction highlights the advantages of high-precision, wide detection range, the market space is expected to further expand.
International political tightening, smart city development to promote the rapid growth of high-definition security camera demand.
Security cameras are widely used in public **** services, enterprise services and civil scenarios. According to Yole data, the global security CCM market was USD 860 million in 2018, and the market size is expected to reach USD 2 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of about 15% from 2018-2024.
With the development of smart cities and the advancement of new infrastructure, as well as the rise in non-civilian demand due to the political situation, the demand for security video surveillance cameras is rising.
According to TSR data, 313 million global security lenses were shipped in 2019, with a CAGR of over 20% from 2014-2019. At the same time, in response to the call of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology "4K first, taking into account 8K", high-definition security cameras will be the future trend.
It is expected that in 2021, the proportion of shipments of high-definition cameras (1080P) will reach 76%, and the proportion of zoom lenses will be gradually increased. VR single-camera needs more than one camera, ARVR is expected to take over the growth in the next 5 years.
The Oculus quest2 has 4 cameras distributed around it for positional tracking, perspective and hand tracking.
According to the U.S. Patent Office, Apple's patented display VR headset or carries 8 surround sensing cameras with overlapping fields of view, **** the same to provide a physical 360-degree view of the environment about the user.
According to IDC forecast, 25 years of global VR headset sales of 28.6 million units, 2021-2025 compound growth of about 40%. If a single camera 8 cameras, the shipments will be more than 200 million.
AR optics, AR devices include multiple cameras, including depth of field, environment, and HD cameras, many of which are 3D cameras, used to obtain information for modeling.
CMOS tripod, Weir and Gekko Micro steadily upward breakthrough, ON Semiconductor and Stellaris deep into the market segments.
The CMOS industry is currently triad by Sony (47%), Samsung (20%), and Weir (12%). From the cell phone CMOS point of view, Sony (48%), Samsung (26%), Howell (14%) still ranked in the top three, Gekko Micro (5%) and STMicroelectronics (4%) followed by Gekko Micro and STMicroelectronics (4%) in the lower than 5MP market together accounted for 60% of the market share, Sony in the 6MP-12MP accounted for 80% of the share of the 13MP-32MP by Samsung, Wells, Sony, a three-division world, the more than 32MP by Samsung dominated. Above 32MP is dominated by Samsung, followed by Sony. ON Semiconductor Manufacturing and Sidewinder have an advantage in the automotive and security segments.
The domestic industry chain may rely on the high growth of domestic demand to achieve substitution.
At present, the industry mostly adopts the IDM model + a small portion of outsourced OEM packaging. Under the trend of localization, the pure design of Weir (Howell) and Geico Micro have formed a breakthrough in the high-end and low-end market respectively, especially in the automotive and security areas of the accelerated development of the domestic supply chain. We judge that major foundries such as TSMC, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, as well as sealing and testing factories such as Precision Materials, the same with the Xin electric, Jing Yuan electric, crystal square technology, etc., is expected to benefit from the outsourcing share of the increase and process upgrading.
Optoelectronic components as a non-IC market occupies half of the segments of the track, is expected to benefit from the impact of the continuous penetration of sensory applications.
CMOS, as one of the core components, is expected to be the most beneficial link driven by emerging fields such as autonomous driving and ARVR.
Weir and Gekko micro head manufacturers in the domestic supply chain to promote, technology and share is expected to continue to break through; and unique design + foundry model, will also support TSMC, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, and the back-end of the sealing Precision Materials, the same with the Xin power, the King yuan electricity, crystal Fang technology performance of high-speed growth.
Autopilot penetration less than expected, external factors on the manufacturing chain of uncertainty
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The original title of the report is "Image Sensors: Bridging the Real World and the Digital Universe"
Author and Analyst: Jiajun Hong, Jiaxun Li, Societe Generale Securities
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