In recent years, with the gradual improvement of prefabricated building technology research, rising labor costs and the support of national policies, China is welcoming a new stage of prefabricated building development. According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, by the end of 20 18, the area of newly-built prefabricated buildings in China reached 290 million square meters, accounting for 13.9% of the total area of newly-built houses in China.
From the perspective of product structure, the products produced in the market at this stage are mainly PC structures, and the steel structure has not caught up with the rapid growth of the industry in the development process. Compared with developed countries, the market penetration rate of China's prefabricated construction industry still needs to be improved.
1. Analysis of the development process of China prefabricated construction industry: ushered in a new development stage.
China's prefabricated buildings started in the 1950s. At first, a series of prefabricated concrete building systems were gradually formed by studying the design and construction technology of prefabricated concrete buildings. In the 1980s, due to the rapid release of people's living needs, the application of prefabricated concrete buildings reached its heyday.
In the mid-1990s, due to insufficient research on seismic integrity and specialization in design and construction management, prefabricated concrete buildings were gradually replaced by full cast-in-place concrete building systems, which led to long-term stagnation of prefabricated structures.
However, in recent years, with the gradual improvement of prefabricated building technology research, rising labor costs and the growing voice of green buildings, China is welcoming a new stage of prefabricated building development.
Analysis on the Development Course of Assembled Building Industry in China
Source: Organized by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
2. Industrial policies have been introduced one after another to promote the development of prefabricated buildings.
Since 20 14, China has successively issued a number of important policy documents to promote the development of prefabricated buildings. Among them, the "Thirteenth Five-Year Action Plan for Prefabricated Buildings" proposes that by 2020, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings in China will reach more than 15%, among which the key promotion areas, active promotion areas and encouraged promotion areas will reach more than 20%, 15% and 10% respectively. The Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of Construction Industry issued by the State Council requires that the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings should reach 30% by 2025.
Policy Release of Assembled Construction Industry in China since 20 14
Source: Organized by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
In 3.20 18, the area of newly-built prefabricated buildings in China reached a new high, reaching 290 million square meters.
In recent years, with the rapid economic development, rising labor costs, improving the processing accuracy and quality of prefabricated components, improving the construction technology and management level of prefabricated buildings, and the promotion of national policy factors, domestic prefabricated buildings are heating up again and showing a rapid development trend.
According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from 20 12 to 20 18, the area of newly built prefabricated buildings in China showed a rapid growth trend. In 20 18, the area of newly built prefabricated buildings in China was the largest in the past six years, reaching 290 million square meters, up 93.3% year-on-year.
20 12-20 18 statistics and growth of new prefabricated buildings in China
Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
(Note: the annual area growth rate in 20 14 is 5 1.4%)
4.PC structure is the mainstream of products, and steel structure has not yet enjoyed the industry growth dividend.
From the perspective of product structure, domestic prefabricated building components are mainly precast concrete (PC) structure, steel structure and wood structure, and the three types of components have their own advantages and disadvantages. In China, PC-structured prefabricated buildings are widely used, mainly in hydraulic engineering, bridges and other buildings. In the past, most of the affordable housing was based on PC structure, which has the best strength and fire/corrosion resistance among the three types of structures.
The application of steel structure is concentrated in public buildings/industrial buildings. The three types of components have the advantages of the highest degree of industrialization, excellent seismic performance, flexible structure and the highest room rate. Wood structure has excellent environmental protection performance, but its construction cost is high and its application is minimal.
Comparison of Three Assembled Building Structures
Source: Organized by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
Although the prefabricated building industry in China has developed rapidly, it seems that the steel structure industry has not benefited significantly. The income CAGR of Hangxiao, Seiko Steel Structure, Lu Hong Steel Structure and Southeast Grid Structure in 20 13-20 18 years was 9.2%, 2.8%, 9.8% and 18.5% respectively, which was much slower than the growth rate of assembled building area and industry scale in the same period. Forward-looking Industry Research Institute believes that the dividend of prefabricated construction industry before 20 19 is mainly enjoyed by the mainstream PC structure in the market.
At present, PC structure occupies the main position in prefabricated buildings in China, followed by steel structure. Judging from the demonstration project of 1 19 prefabricated buildings carried out by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 20 16, concrete structures account for the largest proportion, accounting for 46%, followed by assembled steel structures, accounting for 16%. However, the assembled wood structure accounts for only 3% because of its small application scope in China. But it should be noted that. At present, the cost competition in the field of assembled concrete components in China is fierce, and it is difficult to replace cast-in-place concrete on a large scale in a short time. Leading enterprises in the industry mainly include Yuanda Residential Workers, Zhong Min Youzhu Technology and Wan Sida.
The market penetration rate in 5.20 18 is less than 14%, which is still far lower than that in developed countries.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the proportion of newly-built prefabricated buildings in China was only 2.7% in 20 15, and about 290 million square meters in 20 18. In the same period, the national real estate started 2.093 billion square meters, accounting for 13.9%. Considering that this data does not include the newly started area of infrastructure and municipal facilities, by the end of 20 18, the proportion of newly started prefabricated buildings in China is less than 14%, which is still far below the average level of developed countries.
20 18 comparison of permeability of prefabricated buildings in major economies around the world
Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
According to the data of China prefabricated building network, by the end of 20 18, there were 19 prefabricated building industrial parks in China, including 4 in Shandong Province, 2 in Henan Province, and 1 in the remaining 13 provinces. The investment and construction of the above-mentioned industrial parks are mainly related enterprises in the industry, mainly domestic listed companies and foreign-funded enterprises. Among them, domestic listed companies include: Seiko Steel Structure, Yuanda Residential Engineering, Lu Hong Steel Structure, Hangxiao Shares, etc. Foreign-funded enterprises include Munitec in Germany, Amana in United Arab Emirates and Oberndorfer in Austria.
By the end of 20 18, the regional distribution of assembled building industrial parks in China.
Data source: compiled by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
Potential trillion market, broad market space.
According to the national development goal of prefabricated buildings, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in China will reach 15% in 2020, 30% in 2025 and about 14% in 20 18, with an average annual increase of 2 percentage points in recent years. According to the reference basis for the cost of prefabricated buildings issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the market size of prefabricated buildings in China will reach 654.38+0.2 trillion yuan by 2024, based on the calculation of 2230 yuan /m2 (considering the different effects of rising technical level and rising prices on the price level, assuming that the cost will remain unchanged in the next few years).
20 19-2024 Prediction of the overall market size of prefabricated buildings in China.
Source: Organized by Prospective Industry Research Institute.
—— The above data analysis comes from the In-depth Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Planning of China Prefabricated Construction Industry released by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, which also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial planning, industrial declaration, industrial park planning and industrial investment promotion.