Miao Wen de Qiao Mei
With the breakthrough of core technology and the promotion of policies, a new round of energy revolution is coming.
On September 2 1 this year, the Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions issued the Notice on Developing the Demonstration and Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles to support the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles in urban agglomerations. On June 10, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Third Session of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative ConferenceNo. 1438 (JF 105). In order to promote the healthy development of hydrogen energy and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China, the Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to speed up the formulation of relevant plans for the national hydrogen energy industry, and at the same time clarify the development goals and key tasks of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and promote.
At the same time, the hydrogen energy industry and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have also made important progress, and the breakthrough of core technologies and the reduction of costs have made it possible to realize their industrialization.
"The hydrogen energy industry has ushered in the best development period."10 On June 5438+05, Liu Xiaoshi, Executive Deputy Secretary General of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, said at the 2020 Hydrogen Energy Industry Development and Innovation Summit that "hydrogen energy, as a secondary energy, is an ideal energy medium to promote the clean and efficient utilization of traditional fossil energy and support the large-scale development of renewable energy."
China electric vehicle committee of 100 released "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report 2020" on the same day, predicting that by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for 10% of terminal energy consumption, there will be 30 million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and 60 million tons of hydrogen demand, and the world will enter a hydrogen energy society.
The government's policies have played a driving role. This year will be the first year of the large-scale development of China's hydrogen energy industry, and it will also become a general meeting.
Hydrogen fuel automobile industry enters the fast lane.
On September 22nd, the national leaders pointed out in the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly that China will enhance its national independent contribution to climate change and adopt more effective policy measures, so as to strive to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.
The establishment of this goal also means that the country's demand for clean energy is increasingly severe, and the energy planning during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period will also adapt to it.
"The renewable energy on the energy supply side should not be less than 80%, and the electrification rate on the energy demand side should not be less than 80%. It is possible to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060." 10On June 55438+05, Zhu Dequan, vice president of Beijing Tsinghua Industrial Development Research Institute and chairman of Hua Bin Group Co., Ltd., said in an interview with think tank Jun that from the whole life cycle of energy production, transportation, participation and use, there is a carbon emission problem in the technical route of lithium batteries, and only hydrogen can achieve complete decarbonization in the field of electric vehicles.
"In 2025, the production cost of renewable energy will be lower than that of fossil energy, so it is economical. The economy at the production end and the economy at the demand end also determine that hydrogen energy vehicles have entered a stage of sustainable development, that is, a moment of rapid growth. " ? Zhu Dequan told think tank Jun.
Similarly, Zhang Yinguang, general manager of Hydrogen Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd., the State Power Investment Group, also predicted that the turning point of China's hydrogen energy industry will appear in 2025, and it will become the high-speed development period of domestic hydrogen energy industry from 2025 to 2035, and it will enter the stage of large-scale application after 2035.
Under the guidance of the policy of top-level design and encouraging urban agglomerations to lead and strengthen the fuel cell industry chain, local governments have also issued corresponding development plans.
According to the incomplete statistics of think tank Jun, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other cities have put forward development goals including the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and the construction of hydrogen energy industry system.
Taking Guangzhou as an example, Guangzhou Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Plan (20 19-2030) released on July 30th put forward the industrial layout of "one core, one hub and three bases", aiming at establishing the strategic positioning of Greater Bay Area hydrogen energy industry center, network hub and hydrogen energy trading center, and making Guangzhou a hydrogen energy hub in southern China. It is planned to complete the layout of key enterprises in the hydrogen energy industry chain by 2022, with an estimated output value of more than 20 billion yuan; By 2025, the hydrogen energy industry chain will be initially established, with an estimated output value of more than 60 billion yuan; By 2030, more than 0/00 hydrogen refueling stations will be built, and a hydrogen energy industry system will be built, with an estimated output value of more than 200 billion yuan.
"China's relevant provinces, cities, enterprises and institutions have recently put forward their visions, each with its own characteristics. However, at present, the research on hydrogen energy in the industry is not enough, and it is difficult to form a national overall concept, which requires research and planning guidance. " Li, former Minister of Industry and Information Technology and President of China Federation of Industrial Economics, pointed out at the conference that the development of hydrogen energy industry needs reasonable and pragmatic planning, design and standards, and a clear direction to prevent the blindness of industrial development.
According to Lu Bingbing, general manager of Shanghai Jiehydrogen Technology Co., Ltd., in order to realize the turning point in 2025, the hydrogen energy industry must solve the localization problem of core materials and reduce the cost of hydrogen.
"The efficiency of the whole market depends on macro policies, and all provinces and cities are making detailed development plans. In the next five years, it is possible to achieve the goal of 1 10,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. " ? Lu Bingbing told think tank Jun, "But industrialization and commercialization will be possible only if the cost comes down." ?
Reconstruction of industrial chain and exploration of commercial operation mode
"The hydrogen energy industry is on the eve of a large-scale outbreak, and the' 14 th Five-Year Plan' has become a crucial period for industrial chain construction." Zhang Yinguang said, "The gap between us and foreign countries lies in the maturity of technology and equipment. The next step is to build a business model by demonstrating urban agglomerations, so that independent technologies and equipment can mature rapidly. "
A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on Developing the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles. The goal is to build a domestic hydrogen energy industrial chain in four years and make the whole industrial chain complete.
However, it is undeniable that before large-scale application, the application of hydrogen energy still faces problems such as national macro-policy, business operation mode and infrastructure construction.
"As a dangerous chemical management, hydrogen energy has not been included in the energy variety, which has restricted the industrial development to some extent. At present, infrastructure bottlenecks such as hydrogen refueling stations are large, and it is hoped that unified planning will be made from a national perspective so that the industry can have a reference, otherwise it will be difficult to form a scale. " Zhang Yinguang pointed out that in addition to breaking restrictive policies, the development of the industry also needs to join some long-term and effective guiding policies.
"It is not only the supporting policies during the demonstration period and in the demonstration urban agglomeration, but also the long-term policies that can combine hydrogen energy utilization with carbon emission reduction and environmental protection to support the development of hydrogen energy industry." Zhang Yinguang said that long-term effective policies enable enterprises to make long-term layout, which is closer to operability and commercialization.
At the same time, on the basis of limited government subsidies, introducing large-scale socialized capital is an effective way to realize the commercialization and large-scale application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
In the future, there will be a longer period of social capital investment to build a larger application scenario and commercialize the industry. With the expansion of scale and the reduction of cost, the market space of many hydrogen energy application scenarios, such as heavy transport vehicles, logistics vehicles and marine fields, will gradually open up.
In addition, the construction of key infrastructure such as hydrogen refueling stations also puts forward higher requirements for demonstration cities.
The Notice on Demonstration and Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles clearly points out that the incentive funds shall not be used to support the production and investment projects of fuel cell vehicles and the construction of hydrogenation infrastructure.
"There is no subsidy for hydrogen refueling stations, just to test the comprehensive capabilities of demonstration cities and avoid the situation that there was no car charging in the past." Simon, chairman of the technological innovation alliance of the whole electric drive industry chain of electric vehicles, said.
"The demonstration and application cities of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles must meet several conditions: first, there must be hydrogen refueling stations, second, there must be corresponding basic industries, and third, there must be application scenarios of fuel cell vehicles. At present, fuel cell vehicles are more difficult to build hydrogen refueling stations than lithium battery vehicles. " In Lu Bingbing's view, on the one hand, the construction and investment of hydrogen refueling stations are larger than those of charging piles, and the requirements for the site are also higher; More importantly, electricity is more convenient to obtain, and hydrogen can only be supplied where conditions permit.
It is understood that at present, in the process of revising the Guiding Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment, the Development and Reform Commission will not only promote the key components and technologies of hydrogen fuel cells, but also support enterprises to upgrade their industrialization capabilities in related technical fields. The next step will be to promote the construction of hydrogenation network system as a whole and accelerate the layout and construction of hydrogenation stations.
"At present, the infrastructure bottleneck is relatively large, and it must be promoted by the national energy enterprises, PetroChina and Sinopec in a planned and purposeful manner under the overall planning of the country." Zhang Yinguang finally pointed out.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.