-Avoid the "transition trap" and seize the historical opportunity of changing the growth mode.
After entering the upper-middle income stage, China's economy is facing the "middle income trap" mainly due to the imbalance of investment and consumption, more obvious constraints on resources and environment, unreasonable industrial structure, uncoordinated urban and rural development, weak scientific and technological innovation ability, widening income gap, weak agricultural foundation, great employment pressure and many institutional and institutional obstacles restricting sustainable growth. These problems need to be solved step by step in changing the growth mode, which requires grasping the historical opportunity of changing the current economic development mode, making full use of various favorable conditions and accurately grasping them.
Grasp the development trend and successfully cross the "middle income trap".
-Preventing "Latin American Trap" and Realizing "Inclusive Growth"
"Latin American trap" mainly refers to unfair distribution, and the resulting social polarization, urban unrest and dishonesty. Although China's Gini coefficient is lower than that of middle-income countries in Latin America, it is higher than that of many developing countries in Asia. Therefore, at the critical moment of entering the middle income threshold, we propose to achieve "inclusive" growth, which is of far-reaching significance. Therefore, reforming the income distribution and household registration system as soon as possible, actively promoting the process of urbanization, narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and preventing polarization will be the extraordinary measures to ensure the steady crossing of the "middle income trap".
-Overcome the "welfare trap" and keep the social security system in step with economic growth.
After entering the upper-middle income stage, with the rapid advancement of urbanization, large-scale non-agriculture and the overall improvement of living standards, the social security system will lag behind the needs of economic and social development, especially the economic growth has made people have higher expectations for social security, and the social security system is facing greater pressure. Therefore, it is necessary to keep the social security system in step with economic growth, so as to give full play to its due role in safeguarding residents' consumption and expanding domestic demand.
-Bypass the "urbanization trap" and keep urbanization and economic level developing simultaneously.
In the process of urbanization, we should actively take effective measures to prevent falling into the "urbanization trap" characterized by population explosion, the existence of "slums" and the deterioration of social security, and strive to keep the simultaneous development of urbanization and industrialization, so as to smoothly realize the third leap of China's economy.
-Beware of the "bubble economy trap", the economy can not be ups and downs.
"Real estate bubble" is the most typical form of bubble economy. Especially from the first half of 2008 to the first half of 20 1 1, the real estate market and policies fluctuated greatly, which led to a rapid rise in house prices. It is generally believed that the asset bubble, or the real estate bubble, should be a trap that China should be very vigilant about in its economic growth. Effective measures should be taken to stabilize the real estate market price and prevent the emergence of bubble economy in order to maintain stable economic growth.
-Overcome the "aging trap" and maintain steady economic growth.
Population aging is an important variable of economic growth. According to the prediction of relevant parties, the aging trend in China will intensify in the next 10 year. Therefore, we should continue to improve the social security system and deepen the reform of the social security system to solve the problem of "providing for the aged"; We should vigorously improve the social pension cause and actively solve social problems such as empty nest families in order to solve the problem of "pension service"; Actively implement "active aging", appropriately raise the retirement age, increase the supply of labor force, solve the problem of reduced labor input, improve productivity, intensify technological innovation, and achieve the dual goals of improving employment rate and output.
-To prevent "financial traps" and be cautious in financial reform.
When China enters the middle-income stage, on the one hand, it should persist in financial reform and increase the openness of the financial industry, but at the same time, it should adopt a very cautious attitude. Judging from the actual effect of crisis prevention, the degree and process of convertibility and financial system opening under RMB capital account must be gradual according to China's national conditions, and at the same time, we should continue to strengthen the construction of financial supervision system to provide a healthy financial environment for the development of the real economy.
-Beware of the "dollar trap" and ensure national economic security.
At present, a considerable part of China's huge foreign exchange reserves are dollar assets, and foreign exchange reserves have become a major issue related to the overall security of the national economy. On the one hand, China should actively formulate countermeasures, such as reducing the surplus, using resources for domestic consumption and investment, and shifting the focus of economic work to revitalizing domestic demand; On the other hand, on the international stage, China should play a good role in the interests of the largest developed economy.
-Beware of the "killing trap" and keep a low profile.
Although China's economic aggregate jumped to the second place in the world in 20 10, its per capita GDP only ranked 95th in the world. In the face of different international and public opinion environments, we should keep a clear head, enhance our sense of urgency, not fall into the trap of "killing people to cover their mouths" set by the West, not undertake obligations beyond our own capabilities, and not take China's core interests as the premise.
-Surpass the "populist trap" and maintain political and social stability.
Many cases show that in the middle-income stage, if ethnic contradictions intensify, social contradictions intensify, political parties struggle fiercely, and governments change frequently, economic and social policies will inevitably lack effectiveness and continuity, and economic development will inevitably be affected or even stagnated, falling into the "middle-income trap." Therefore, political stability and social stability are the basic conditions for China's modernization process, and it is necessary for China to leap over the middle-income stage to achieve the highest interests of the Chinese nation.
Reference: Experts from China Academy of Social Sciences suggested that the "middle income trap" should be overcome from ten aspects.
/fortune/20 12-07/03/c _ 1233649 15 . htm