2017: 20 September 5, 2004 Source: Liberation Army Daily Author: font size
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On August 25, while the Ukrainian government held a grand military parade in Kiev, anti-government forces organized a parade of Ukrainian government prisoners in the eastern town of Donetsk; On August 3 1, as soon as the media revealed that NATO would set up a large-scale rapid reaction force to deal with Russia, Putin released cruel words: It is best not to mess with us. ...
This vivid drama about Taiwan is a vivid portrayal of the warring parties and great powers behind the Ukrainian civil war. In this civil war, what are the military strength and combat effectiveness of both sides? What role did the big country game behind it play? What is the future trend of civil war in Ukraine? People expect these question marks to be straightened.
Anti-government forces—
Diversified, but not a mob.
Shortly after the outbreak of civil strife in Ukraine, some analysts pointed out that although some cities and prefectures in southeastern Ukraine were occupied and controlled by civil rebels and declared their independence on their own, many problems such as disunity of ideas, lack of unified organization and lack of heavy equipment would make them vulnerable to the counterattack of Ukrainian government forces. However, this does not seem to be the case. Over the past six months, anti-government forces have not only performed well in urban offensive and defensive wars, but have even been able to frequently destroy Ukrainian government fighters, transport planes and tanks.
It is estimated that the current strength of anti-government armed forces is about 1 10,000 to 20,000. Its composition is diverse and complex, and the main body is the former southeast Russian veterans and local young people who have worked in mines, military factories and other enterprises. Many of these veterans have participated in the war in Afghanistan and domestic anti-terrorism operations and have considerable practical experience. Yuri, commander of the Donetsk People's Army Company 12, was a former Soviet special forces commander and participated in the Battle of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Almost all the soldiers in his company served in the infantry, airborne troops, special forces or air defense units of the Soviet Union or Ukraine.
Ukrainian government troops and police who defected on the spot are also important components of the anti-government armed forces. At the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, many Ukrainian government troops in the southeast changed hands directly and joined the anti-government camp because of their pro-Russian political beliefs. Especially at the beginning of this year, the "Golden Eagle" special forces disbanded by the Ukrainian authorities, not only a large number of members swore allegiance to Russia, but also a large number of people threw themselves into the arms of anti-government forces and became a force against government forces.
The infiltration of foreign armed personnel has also added mystery to this armed force. As early as April this year, some observers found that there were some organized armed detachments in Ukrainian rebels. These teams are well dressed, well equipped and highly professional, far from being like temporary civilian armed forces. Some analysts believe that from the aspects of accent, equipment, technical and tactical characteristics, these troops are likely to be special forces directly infiltrated by Russia into Ukraine. An anti-government official in Slavyansk said vaguely, "Of course, I can turn to my former comrades-in-arms, who come from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and even Moldova." However, these armed forces did not stay in the eastern war zone all the time, and their real source is unknown.
Ukrainian rebels have a variety of weapons from several sources: first, civilian weapons, such as shotguns collected by combatants from the people, as well as homemade artillery and launchers; The second is the "dowry" brought by the defected Ukrainian government forces, including heavy equipment. For example, an armored unit of the Ukrainian government forces defected and brought 10 tanks and several infantry fighting vehicles at one time; The third is the weapons seized from Ukrainian government forces and police. For example, in the battle to occupy the Donetsk police station, the rebels got nearly a thousand pistols and rifles in one fell swoop. In addition, there have been rumors that some external forces, including Russia, secretly transported a large number of advanced weapons to the Ukrainian rebels, but Russia and other countries have always firmly denied it.
It is such a seemingly mixed armed force, but its combat effectiveness is stronger than people think. Judging from the will to fight, most of these people belong to the Russian ethnic group and have deep grievances with the Ukrainian government. Their intention of independence is not achieved overnight. They have the idea of decisive battle after death, and they are more determined to fight. From the technical and tactical point of view, except those veterans and defectors of the former Soviet Union who have rich combat experience and received professional training, because more than 70% of Ukraine's military industry is concentrated in the eastern region, there are many employees in local military enterprises, and those young people who participated in the war are no strangers to combat weapons. As a local young man said, "We learned how to use weapons when we were students, including throwing bombs, loading and unloading and using automatic rifles." In addition, familiarity with the operational environment and the support and help of local people are also important growth points of the anti-government armed forces' combat effectiveness.
Ukrainian government forces-
Strength is dominant, but it is difficult to cover up weaknesses.
No matter in the organization and command, the size of troops, or the supply of weapons and equipment, the Ukrainian government forces are far higher than the rebels.
However, in the early days of the civil war in Ukraine, due to political beliefs and ideas, as well as the tremendous pressure exerted by Russia on Ukraine, Ukrainian government forces were very reluctant to fight, could not fight, and did not dare to fight. In particular, a large number of Ukrainian government troops in the southeast did not resist or defected, which greatly shocked the Ukrainian authorities and thus formed a more serious distrust between the Ukrainian government and the army. The Ukrainian authorities' insistence on disbanding the Golden Eagle troops is an external manifestation of this distrust. In order to solve this problem, the Ukrainian authorities' strategy is to make the military forces against anti-government armed forces more diversified and decentralized, rather than pinning their hopes only on government forces.
In April this year, the Ukrainian authorities set up a new national civil police guard outside the government forces, which was specially used to combat anti-government armed forces. This unit was built for emergencies, and the recruitment standards were relaxed. Anyone who is committed to fighting the anti-government armed forces, is in good health, has no criminal record, and 18 to 55 years old can apply for enlistment. Because it joined the army spontaneously after the outbreak of the civil war, this newly formed unit concentrated many ultra-nationalists who hated the Russian ethnic group, had high loyalty to the Ukrainian authorities, fought bravely, and performed well in several battles.
Earlier, some observers believed that external military forces serving the Ukrainian authorities also appeared in the war zone in eastern Ukraine. According to the analysis, it is likely that the Ukrainian authorities outsourced some combat missions and combat areas to foreign security companies in order to enrich and strengthen the forces against anti-government armed forces. Although these news and analysis have not been recognized by the Ukrainian authorities, the reality of pro-Ukrainian armed forces outside the theater makes this possibility impossible to rule out.
Tactically, at the beginning of the conflict, the initial strategic intention of the Ukrainian authorities was to eradicate the root causes, avoid future troubles, and take a positional war with annihilation as the mainstay against the anti-government armed forces. However, in this way, the rebels were forced to the last position to a great extent, and the Ukrainian government forces met with fierce resistance and suffered huge casualties. In view of this situation, the Ukrainian authorities gradually adjusted some tactics, paid more attention to making use of the obvious advantages of military scale and strength, and adopted the method of encircling several important towns in the east to promote change. At present, due to the siege of Ukrainian government forces, there have been serious food and energy shortages in parts of Donetsk and Lugansk, and the situation of water and electricity cuts is grim. The rebels, especially the local people, are suffering. The Ukrainian authorities took the opportunity to press hard and seized some important strongholds.
Although the advantages are obvious, the weaknesses of the Ukrainian government forces are hard to cover up. On the one hand, because Russia has mobilized a large number of military forces on the Russian-Ukrainian border, armed detachments suspected of Russian special forces are constantly appearing in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian government forces are unable to let go of their hands and feet for fear of a direct military conflict with Russia. On the other hand, the financial resources of the Ukrainian authorities, which are not rich, are even more stretched, making it difficult to maintain a long-term war of attrition. As early as July, the Ukrainian Finance Minister made it clear that due to insufficient funds, the Ukrainian government forces may have "nothing to send" as early as August. Once the salary is insufficient, the fighting will of Ukrainian government forces is likely to decline seriously. Previously, the 25th Air Mobile Brigade of the Ukrainian army besieged Slavyansk, because it was unable to fill its stomach for several days, and in a rage, it took refuge in the local rebels.
External force—
The military game will affect the direction of the Ukrainian war.
At present, Ukrainian government forces and anti-government forces have their own advantages and disadvantages, and the war situation is in a stalemate. The great power game behind these two forces in the future, especially the layout and application of military means, will have an important impact on the direction of the war.
From Russia's point of view, its military application can be roughly divided into three options. First, continue to maintain the strategic deterrent posture of private soldiers under pressure. Russia frequently holds military exercises and drills on the Russian-Ukrainian border, which is regarded as the backbone of Ukrainian anti-government armed forces and poses great strategic pressure on Ukrainian authorities and government forces. More importantly, it enables Russia to grasp the military initiative as soon as possible when the war situation changes suddenly. According to the research statistics of a military think tank in Kiev, at present, Russia's overall military deployment around Ukraine has reached 80,000 people, and its military equipment includes tanks, armored combat vehicles, multi-barrel rocket systems, artillery systems, fighter planes, helicopter gunships and naval vessels. It is conceivable that Russia will not easily lift the military high-pressure situation against Ukraine, especially in the southeast.
The second is to carry out small-scale and covert military infiltration. For the Ukrainian rebels who are in a relatively inferior position as a whole, infiltrating small-scale military forces and providing them with military advice, intelligence supply and even direct combat support in a hidden way is an important lever to maintain the relative balance of the Ukrainian civil war. Ukraine and western countries have always accused that there is enough evidence to prove that Russian troops have penetrated into Ukraine. In this regard, Russia denied it and counterattacked it by public opinion. However, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Churkin said that there are Russian personnel in Ukraine, but these people are "volunteers" and "use their own time to go to Ukraine" to support civilian armed forces.
Third, direct high-intensity military intervention. Once the civil war situation in Ukraine has a huge mutation that is not conducive to Ukrainian rebels and seriously threatens Russia's security interests, Putin's strategic style does not rule out the possibility of Russia's direct high-intensity military intervention. However, this method also faces serious political and military risks and is not a strategic priority for Russia.
From the perspective of the United States, the European Union and other western countries, because the stakes in Ukraine are much lower than those in Russia, its strategic main axis should still be to avoid direct confrontation and conflict with Russia militarily. But this does not mean that the West has done nothing militarily. At least two aspects can be exerted to balance and retaliate against Russia's strategic offensive.
On the one hand, we should focus on the long-term, play the peripheral card, take the opportunity to promote the overall military strategic advantage of Eastern Europe and continue to squeeze Russia's strategic space. Earlier, 28 NATO members held a special military meeting on Russia's approach to Ukraine and designed a "package plan" to strengthen the military presence in Central and Eastern Europe: increasing the frequency and intensity of military exercises in the region; Expand NATO air force air patrol operations in Baltic countries; Invest more military forces in eastern European countries; Establish permanent military bases in these countries, and so on. In particular, the six NATO countries, such as Britain, will be the main body, and a rapid reaction force of at least 1 10,000 people will be formed, which will include the armed forces of the army, navy and air force, and its main task will be to consolidate security in Eastern Europe.
On the other hand, it is indirect military assistance to Ukraine. This mainly includes providing military advisers, intelligence and financial support, and non-lethal military resources and equipment. Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has publicly provided two batches of non-lethal military assistance to Ukraine. In the future, NATO may also rely on the advantages of satellites and drones. In order to strengthen intelligence collection and share with Ukraine, strengthen network power to help Ukraine gain an advantage in cyber warfare, and so on. In particular, Ukraine and NATO reached an agreement to break the taboo of Ukraine's independence for 23 years, and invited NATO countries to hold joint exercises of considerable scale in Ukraine before this year 1 1. Through this kind of exercise, NATO troops can go deep into the hinterland of Ukraine, help Ukrainian troops improve their combat capability more directly, and establish a series of cooperation mechanisms against Russia.