In all the situations we are seeing now, there are MA moving average indicators on the K-line chart, and the parameters of MA are mostly 5,10,20, which is also very obvious. The 5th represents a week, 10 represents a half month, and the 20th represents a month. If everyone takes horses (5, 10, 20) as the standard, I object to this rash attitude of following the crowd to manage stocks.
When we look at the calculation principle of MA, we know that the value of MA is related to the closing price of historical transactions in a certain period. Assuming that the stock price is at a high or low level, it begins to appear sideways, and the daily new closing price does not change much from the closing price of the previous trading day, but a very low or high historical closing price in the previous period is subtracted from the MA calculation, so that the stock price fluctuates little but the MA index changes greatly, which means that MA is strongly disturbed by the historical closing price. This kind of interference is called system interference. Can this kind of system interference be avoided as much as possible? How should it be avoided? The answer is of course yes, otherwise there is no need to ask questions here. The way to avoid this situation is to adjust this parameter to coincide with the fluctuation cycle of stock price, and take the trading cycle of short, medium and long-term fluctuation of stock price as the standard. In this way, whenever the MA moving average covers a complete fluctuation period, MA can avoid the system interference of adjacent periods as much as possible.
From the current stock market analysis and stock market research. The pressure and support of the so-called moving average exists to a certain extent and is recognized by the majority of institutions and investors. But many times, its pressure and supporting role are exaggerated to some extent. Because of its algorithm, the biggest weakness of moving average index is that its indication lags behind the fluctuation of stock price. When you see the so-called golden fork, support, um, dead fork and pressure, the stock price goes up or down a lot. The greater the parameter value of MA, the stronger its hysteresis. MA indication is to gain stability by losing timeliness. Only in this way can it have certain guiding significance in the case of Daniel and Bear. But how do you know in advance whether this is a bull or a bear, a rebound or a callback? In this way, the MA index as a whole loses its guiding significance. In addition, let's imagine, which bull market held its head high without the heavy pressure of breaking through the moving average, and which bear market did not come from breaking through the layers of support and plunged thousands of miles? So we need to understand why the EMA has pressure and support. The so-called pressure and support is not just a random line, even the pressure and support of two adjacent trading days are different. The essence of MA is that it represents the average transaction price of the first n cycles of this cycle (if it is generally believed that the transaction volume of these n trading days is consistent), then MA represents the position cost of the buyers participating in these n trading days. Therefore, the effects of pressure and support are produced. Ok, let's go back to the last question. Since both bull market and bear market should break through this pressure and support, under what circumstances is it easier to trigger market changes? That is, under what circumstances is the pressure and support the weakest and the easiest to be broken? I can't help thinking that when the two armies confront each other in the art of war, it is only when the other forces are scattered that it is conducive to divide and rule.
This means that when the EMA and the stock price are evenly distributed, it is most likely to turn around, rebound or pull back. For example, if MA(5, 10,20) is used, when the distance between the 5-day,10 and 20-day moving averages and the distance between the closing price and the 5-day moving average are equal, the pressure and support are weak and it is easy to start a new market. Using this feature can also make up for the lag of the moving average. The disadvantage of this is that there is a certain misjudgment between Daniel and Bear.