First, the economic structure is unreasonable.
1) Economic growth is mainly driven by investment.
In the past ten years, Sichuan's economy has achieved rapid growth. Apart from a certain increase in consumption, it is mainly driven by investment. In 20 18, the investment in fixed assets was 2,806.53 billion yuan, of which the investment in the tertiary industry was1972.46 billion yuan. At present, the government and private debts are not low, and they have entered the peak period of debt repayment. Rigid expenditure is increasing year by year. 20 18 in the first three quarters, the province's debt service expenditure was109.8 billion yuan. In some cities and counties, the financial situation is tight, the government debt risk is high, the liquidity risk of commercial banks in some cities is high, and the capital level of some local corporate financial institutions is lower than the regulatory standards. The superposition of problems such as the repayment pressure of government stock debt and the financing difficulties of platform companies continues to stimulate unsustainable investment;
2) Unreasonable structure of the real economy,
Sichuan's real economy generally has the phenomenon of "emphasizing quality and light weight" and "emphasizing hard and neglecting soft". Industries are scattered and prosper together. In addition to electronic information, equipment manufacturing, food and beverage, advanced materials, energy and chemical industry, integrated circuits and new displays, new generation network technology, big data, software and information services, aviation and gas turbines, intelligent equipment, rail transit, new energy and smart cars, deep processing of agricultural products, high-quality liquor, refined Sichuan tea, medical health, new materials and cleaning. At the same time, there are few well-known brands. Changhong TV, once famous all over the country, has gradually declined, and only a few bottles of liquor are still struggling, but it is also inadequate under the promotion of Guizhou liquor headed by Maotai.
Second, the concentration of spatial structure is too high.
Sichuan's economic concentration is too high. Chengdu alone exceeded 65.438+05.342 billion, accounting for nearly 40% of the province. Among the major economic provinces (excluding Ningxia, Qinghai and Tibet), Chengdu accounts for the highest proportion of the whole province, and Mianyang, which ranks second, has a GDP of only 230.3 billion, which is only one-seventh of that of Chengdu, ranking behind 654.38+000 among cities in China. Compared with Hubei with the same problem, although the proportion of Wuhan is similar to that of Chengdu, the population and area of Sichuan are far ahead. At the same time, the GDP of Xiangyang and Yichang both exceeds 400 billion, accounting for more than one third of that of Wuhan, so the economic concentration of Sichuan is more serious and unbalanced than that of Hubei. As a big province, no matter how it develops, Chengdu cannot drive the development of the whole province alone.
Third, the cultivation of new kinetic energy is insufficient.
In 20 18, there were 4,200 high-tech enterprises in Sichuan, ranking about 10, which was only one tenth of that in Guangdong province, even lagging behind Anhui, Hubei, Tianjin and other provinces and cities. The scale of Sichuan's digital economy is 1.09 trillion yuan, ranking 10 in the whole country, and there are still many gaps compared with coastal provinces such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong. Shenzhen has established a six-dimensional collaborative innovation model of "official, production, learning, research, capital and intermediary", and cultivated new research and development institutions such as Guangqi Advanced Technology Research Institute and Huada Gene Research Institute. The proportion of innovation cooperation between Sichuan enterprises and universities and research institutes is only 10.5%, and an industrial technology innovation system with enterprises as the main body and Industry-University-Research as the combination has not yet been formed. However, under the powerful influence of capital, some patents of colleges and universities in Sichuan Province were acquired by coastal areas, and the problem of "flowers inside the wall and fragrance outside the wall" appeared. In many places, there are limitations in cultivating new kinetic energy, which is simply equivalent to the scale expansion of some emerging industries, and traditional methods such as grasping industries, giving policies, giving funds and giving factors should be adopted. , leading to overcapacity and excessive competition in some emerging industries due to excessive support.
Fourth: the economic foundation is not strong.
1) The local state-owned economy is not strong
Sichuan's state-owned economy is not competitive. 60% of local state-owned assets are concentrated in basic industries such as transportation, energy and construction, and the incremental distribution is concentrated in tourism, finance, health care and other fields. The reform of mixed ownership of enterprises is relatively backward, and state-owned enterprises have not yet realized the transformation from operating industries to capital operation. At the group level, wholly state-owned companies account for 75%, the function of amplifying state-owned capital is not fully reflected, the innovation ability is not strong, and the R&D investment is low.
2) Private enterprises are inactive.
Private enterprises in Sichuan do not transform and upgrade slowly, and their innovation ability is not strong. In terms of the number of leading enterprises, the number of private leading enterprises in Sichuan among the top 500 in China has been decreasing, from 1 18 in 20 17 to 10 in 20 17, and the ranking in China has dropped from the sixth place to10. The private economy is still dominated by the secondary industry, and the tertiary industry accounts for a relatively low proportion and is mainly concentrated in the low-end life service industry. In the field of new economy, there is only one unicorn enterprise in Sichuan private economy. The number of well-known brands in enterprises is small. According to the 20 17 hurun brand list, 107, among the most valuable private brands in China, not a single Sichuan enterprise made the list.
VI. Suggestions on Sichuan's Economic Development
First, determine the key industries for development.
Sichuan has always taken a large and comprehensive industrial road. Look at the following documents (Guiding Opinions of General Office of Sichuan Provincial People's Government on Optimizing Regional Industrial Layout [2018] No.92):
Article 3 Implement the planning of main functional areas, develop and expand five trillion pillar industries such as electronic information, equipment manufacturing, food and beverage, new materials and energy and chemical industry, focus on cultivating emerging industries with core competitiveness such as new energy vehicles, energy conservation and environmental protection, biomedicine, rail transit, electricity and energy storage batteries, vigorously develop digital industries such as big data, artificial intelligence and fifth-generation mobile communication, and build a modern industrial system with distinctive features, centralized layout and complete facilities.
Article 4: Strive to build four world-class industrial clusters of new generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, high-quality liquor and new vanadium-titanium materials, and cultivate domestic leading industrial clusters such as integrated circuits, new displays, information security, aerospace, clean power generation equipment, new energy vehicles, energy conservation and environmental protection, rail transit, biomedicine and green food.
Article 5: Support the application of nuclear energy equipment and technology, complete aircraft, aero-engines, aerospace and satellite applications, military electronic equipment, information security, integrated circuits, high-end materials, big data and artificial intelligence, drones and other advantageous fields; Support the development of characteristic agricultural products processing industry, and give priority to the development of hundreds of billions of industries such as famous liquor, meat, grain and oil, textiles and clothing, tobacco, tea and Chinese herbal medicines.
I think the so-called industrial planning mentioned above lists almost all industries that can be thought of, and there is no focus, let alone industrial guidance. Combined with the existing advantageous industrial base and resources in Sichuan, Sichuan is a big agricultural province, but there are many plateaus, mountains and hills, but animal husbandry is developed and there are rich fruits/specialties/Chinese herbal medicines, so agriculture is promising. It is suggested that the key industries in Sichuan should be agriculture and food industry (including grain, meat products, fruit processing, wine, vinegar and oil), and then rely on hydropower, natural gas and minerals in southwest and northeast Sichuan to develop new ones. Electronic information industry/automobile should not be regarded as a key industry;
Second, identify key development areas.
The Guiding Opinions on Optimizing Regional Industrial Layout [2018] No.92 issued by the General Office of Sichuan Provincial People's Government clearly stated that "one stem refers to Chengdu, and many branches refer to cities outside Chengdu, and the five districts are around Chengdu, northeast Sichuan, southwest Sichuan, southeast Sichuan and west Sichuan". In the final analysis, this is still an all-round flowering without new ideas, which means nothing. In the case of limited investment and high debt, it is impossible to build in an all-round way, and other key areas must be selected for development.
In view of the situation between Sichuan and the southwest of China, and the need of building Chongqing urban agglomeration, it is necessary to suggest that Zigong and Neijiang form Jianggong Economic Zone, and Nanchong and Suining form Nansui Economic Zone, forming two branches (one-on-one). Jianggong Economic Zone mainly develops machinery and equipment, material processing, medicine and chemical industry, while Nansui Economic Zone mainly develops food processing and textiles (silk, hemp, etc.). ).
Third, pay attention to overall planning and coordinated development.
The industrial planning mentioned above is overall in name, but decentralized in fact. We must consider and plan from the height of the whole province, even the height of the southwest or the whole country. For example, with the improvement of traffic in Sichuan, the tourism industry has developed well, but compared with other places (such as Guizhou), the speed is too slow. Last year, although there was still a gap between the number and income of tourists in Guizhou and that in Sichuan, the gap was quite small. Considering the population, area, number of tourist attractions and GDP income of the two provinces, Sichuan's tourism development. Sichuan should co-ordinate the development of natural tourism resources in western Sichuan (Aden, Gongga Mountain, Jiuzhaigou, Huanglong, etc.). ) and northern Sichuan (Micang Mountain, Tangjiahe, Bailong Lake, Guangwu Mountain, etc. ), build a historical tourism resource of Chengdu-Jiangyou-Jianmenguan-Langzhong-Guangyuan (Zhao Hua)-Hanzhong, and develop two tourist nodes of Chengdu and Guangyuan.
Fourth: the integration of national defense and civilian technology.
At the beginning of the third-line construction, Sichuan moved into a large number of military enterprises. The integration of military enterprises and private enterprises is the thinking point of Sichuan industrial development. If the integration is good, it may produce a number of emerging enterprises and products. In the past development, it has achieved good results, such as aerospace, rail transit, artificial intelligence, drones and other industries. The government should further explore the road of national defense and civil technology integration and remove obstacles.
Fifth: Enhance new kinetic energy and tap new opportunities.
1) Make full use of intellectual resources
Sichuan is a big education province with many universities and rich human resources. Therefore, Sichuan should intensify innovation, strengthen the combination of schools and enterprises, seek new kinetic energy and new opportunities, and implement policies such as internet plus, Internet of Things and intelligent manufacturing.
2) Increase investment promotion.
Combined with Sichuan's economic base and industrial advantages, increase investment promotion. In fact, Chengdu has done a good job at this point, and it has a strong ability to attract investment, and it has not fallen behind in the competition with Chongqing and Wuhan. But outside Chengdu, it is difficult to hear the voice of attracting investment.
If we can make full use of Sichuan's population, energy, resources, education and other advantages, as well as its economic base and tourism resources, and make overall planning and coordinated innovation, Sichuan's economic prospects can be expected.