This round of epidemic was first discovered when COVID-19 nucleic acid was detected among students in Putou Primary School, Fengting Town, Xianyou County during the implementation of "timely sampling inspection" in Putian City.
According to the news of "Healthy and Happy Fairy Journey" on WeChat WeChat official account, according to experts' judgment, Putou Primary School 1 student's parents Lin Moumou suspected the source of infection of this epidemic, that is, the infection chain caused by Singaporean immigrants.
It has been 38 days since Lin entered the country and was diagnosed in September 10.
According to the official report, Lin entered Xiamen Airport on August 4th by Xiamen Airlines flight MF852 from Singapore. After being isolated in Xiamen 14 days, it was transferred to the centralized isolation point in Xianyou County on August 6, 5438+09 to continue centralized isolation.
According to the epidemic prevention and control measures in Fujian Province, after completing the centralized isolation of 14+7 days, Lin began to carry out home health monitoring for 7 days on August 26, and it was at this time that Lin began to spread to his family.
It is worth mentioning that the official report shows that during the centralized isolation period of 2 1 day after entry, Lin * * * conducted 9 nucleic acid tests and 1 serum tests, and the results were all negative.
Two communication points, the school and the shoe factory, have been initially formed, both of which are crowded places.
The epidemic situation has formed two transmission chains centered on Putou Primary School and Xiesheng Shoes Factory. According to the details of the cases reported by the Putian Municipal Government in the afternoon of September 12, 15 people came from Putou Primary School, and there were 8 employees of Xiesheng Shoes Factory in Fengtai Village, Xianyou County, Putian City. At present, close contacts between Putou Primary School and all teachers and students have reached the designated isolation point.
In addition to Putou Primary School, another key place of this epidemic is Xiesheng Shoes Factory. According to China News Network, as a traditional advantageous industry in Putian, there are more than 200,000 employees in the city's footwear industry.
A Putian citizen told the Health Times reporter that Xiesheng Shoes Factory belongs to a medium-sized shoe factory in Putian City and has several factories in Fengting Town. Although it is not clear which factory the infected person works in, no matter which factory, there are not many people. On September 12, the reporter of Health Times called Xiesheng Shoes Factory several times, but the phone was not connected.
3./kloc-positive cases aged 0/2 and below, without vaccination.
From 0: 00 to 24: 00 on September 0 1 1, Putian City reported 9 newly confirmed local cases1; Asymptomatic local infection 17 cases were reported. Among them, 19 cases, as young as 12 years old and as young as 3 years old, have not been vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine.
The staff of Putian CDC told the Health Times reporter that at present, Putian City is stepping up the vaccination work for people over 12 years old, and will continue to expand the vaccination population in the next step. "It will definitely gradually cover people under 12 years old, but there is no clear timetable yet."
Putian City Education Bureau issued a notice on September 1 1, pointing out that all local schools should increase the vaccination of students aged 12- 14 and improve the vaccination coverage. Before September 15, complete the vaccination work for faculty and students aged 12- 17.
Fourth, the peak of personnel flow has not yet arrived, and the epidemic situation is concentrated in Fengting Town, Putian.
Fortunately, the epidemic occurred in Nanjing, and the related epidemic has just ended. Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are approaching, and the peak of personnel flow has not yet arrived. Up to now, there is no case report outside Fujian Province, and Fujian Province is also concentrated near a town in Putian City.
After the epidemic situation was notified, investigations were immediately carried out throughout the country. At present, Chengdu, Guangdong Meishan, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou and other places have issued emergency reminders or health tips, suggesting that people in Xianyou County of Putian City take the initiative to report their personal travel to their communities (villages), units and hotels, and consciously obey the arrangements for epidemic prevention and control measures in their jurisdictions.
Expert judgment: the epidemic situation in Putian may be controlled at the beginning of 10.
Professor Huang Senzhong of Nankai University exclusively disclosed his team's judgment on this round of epidemic to Health Times. They preliminarily judged that the final number of infected people in this round of epidemic would ideally be between 100-300, which is a medium scale, or it would be controlled within four weeks, that is, from 10.
Huang Senzhong pointed out that at present, the possible spillover situation is still unknown. According to the epidemiological law and domestic anti-epidemic experience, the "thunderstorm" period that may overflow should appear before September 19. If there is spillover, the total scale of local and related cases should be controlled within 500 cases.
Because the data length of Putian epidemic is only two days, Professor Huang Senzhong first used the "first estimation method" to judge the epidemic situation. According to Professor Huang Senzhong, the "first estimation method" is a "probability model" prediction method, and its formula is "possible scale = possible number of close contacts * infection rate".