The change of the property market is still brewing.
The 20 1 1 Central Economic Work Conference held in mid-February, 65438 proposed to adhere to the real estate control policy, promote the reasonable return of housing prices, accelerate the construction of ordinary commodity housing, expand effective supply, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
The final tone of the policy broke Party A's fantasy in the property market game and stabilized Party B's expectation. The release signal shows that the policies and measures of various regulatory authorities will also strive for progress steadily, and there is not much suspense.
The Kunming Municipal Government has made it clear that it will continue to implement the purchase restriction policy. In the coming year, the property market purchase restriction measures will start from first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, gradually spread to almost all provincial capitals and cities with separate plans, and finally spread to second-and third-tier cities. Nearly 50 cities across the country have introduced purchase restriction measures, which constitute the core policy of property market regulation.
The purchase restriction measures have obvious effects on the regulation of Kunming property market, which have a significant impact on both transaction volume and housing prices. As the weather vane of Beijing property market, the year-on-year increase of new house prices in June 5438+065438+ 10 was the lowest since August 2009.
As an economic means, property tax is highly anticipated by the industry, and it is expected to achieve "striving for progress while maintaining stability" and expand the scope of the pilot.
Kang Jia, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that the general direction of further promoting property tax has been made clear. After summing up the pilot situation in Chongqing and Shanghai, we will discuss and decide on the plan to expand the pilot in the next step. Zhang Dawei, director of Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate Market, said in an interview with this reporter that recently, the cities represented by Beijing and Wuhan have revised the identification standard of ordinary houses, which may be to prepare for the classification of property tax. In its Blue Book on Real Estate, the Academy of Social Sciences suggested that the real estate tax pilot should be extended to the whole country during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, and as an important means of income adjustment, it should be comprehensively levied from quantity to price.
From administrative means to economic means, the effects of all-round and three-dimensional property market regulation policies are accumulating, and changes are brewing.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national commercial housing sales area decreased 1 1.7% in October this year, and the sales in that month also decreased 1.2%. At the same time, the decline in house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China deepened. Compared with 5,438+10 in June, the price of new commercial housing decreased in 49 cities, exceeding half for the first time.
Deepen the "structural adjustment" of the real estate market
The prevalence of speculative investment once brought the property market to the edge of madness and risk, which became an "unbearable burden" for the healthy development of China's economy. Even the industry and the property market were worried about kidnapping China's economy.
After restraining the speculative investment demand and the excessive rise of housing prices and achieving initial results, the real estate control policy did not retreat, but focused on consolidating the existing control results and clearly put forward "promoting the reasonable return of housing prices."
The "de-real estate" of China's economy will continue to advance, and the pain of transformation brought about by the regulation of the property market will continue or even increase.
At present, the prospect of "de-real estate" is still optimistic. The internal logic is that the regulation of the property market is not only to suppress real estate, but to "adjust the structure" of real estate. Remove the risk warning of "kidnapping" the macro-economy, and real estate will continue to "reduce the burden" for the macro-economy.
Nie Meisheng, president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said at the 30th "Economic Monthly Talk" held by China International Economic Exchange Center on 26th that the previous 1 1 month real estate investment data was 5.5 trillion yuan, and the annual real estate investment will be much higher than last year's 4.8 trillion yuan. This means that despite the strictest regulation in history, real estate investment in the national economy will reach an all-time high this year.
In fact, "accelerating the construction of ordinary commodity housing and expanding effective supply" is also the policy goal put forward by the central government. At the same time, the construction of affordable housing is still the focus in the future.
According to the plan, China will build 36 million sets of affordable housing during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. Following the start of 201100000 sets, more than 7 million sets will be started in 20 12. Qin Hong, director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, explained that although the number of newly started projects in 20 12 is small, the number of projects actually under construction is huge, and the actual investment in construction funds will also exceed this year.
According to reports, the construction period of housing construction is about 2-3 years. According to a rough estimate, the actual engineering quantity under construction next year is about180,000 sets, including some new projects started in 2009 and completed next year, and most of the10 million sets started in 2065.438+065.438+0 years are under construction next year.
She also said that the construction of1/kloc-0,000,000 sets of affordable housing in 201year released a very sufficient policy signal, which played a positive role in changing market expectations and greatly eased the panic of low-and middle-income families in the face of excessive housing prices. Therefore, there are conditions to slow down the development of affordable housing.
Investment opportunity balance.
In addition to the pain of the industry itself, the "structural adjustment" of the property market will also have an uncertain impact on the macro economy. Then, as the barometer of China's economy, what investment opportunities are there for the capital market and the real estate stocks themselves as the weight plate of the capital market?
Based on the judgment and analysis of industry analysts, they believe that the overall impact of real estate regulation on the capital market is neutral, while investment opportunities are changing. In the long run, it is obviously good for the capital market.
The economic transformation with "adjusting the structure and changing the mode" as the main content is a general direction of China's macroeconomic development during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. The mode of relying on exports and investment to promote economic growth needs to be changed, and the unbalanced relationship between investment and consumption needs to be changed. The real estate industry takes the initiative to take the lead in adjustment, which is obviously conducive to macroeconomic transformation and long-term healthy development.
Even in the process of "restructuring" of the real estate industry, there are many investment opportunities in the capital market.
At the just-held national conference on housing security, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development signed a 20 12 letter of responsibility for affordable housing projects with the local government on behalf of the "Leading Coordination Group for Affordable Housing Projects in the State Council", and the completed amount was fully included in the assessment. Affected by this news, the concept stocks of affordable housing strengthened across the board, and the building materials sector, cement sector and some real estate stocks went hand in hand.
"The strong will always be strong" is another effect brought by regulation, and the performance of housing enterprises, including listed housing enterprises, will be obviously differentiated. The data shows that in the first half of 20 1 1, the top ten real estate development enterprises in China achieved a cumulative sales of 332.3 billion yuan, an increase of over 80% year-on-year. Among them, Vanke, Evergrande and China Shipping Real Estate ranked in the top three with sales of 64.4 billion yuan, 42.9 billion yuan and 42,654.38 billion yuan respectively. In the same period, the sales amount and sales area of the top ten housing enterprises increased by 48% and 25% respectively.
An observer in the real estate industry said that real estate enterprises that take the lead in coping with regulation with three modes: high turnover, commercial real estate and real estate diversification will therefore have better investment potential and opportunities.
In fact, real estate stocks have shown signs of stabilization recently. In the view of Essence Securities analysts, this means that some funds recognize that the current share price of real estate stocks matches its basic aspects, and the low valuation level given to real estate stocks has fully reflected the risk of the underlying fundamentals falling. Secondly, as we all know, short-selling power is fully released by short-selling cash.
Therefore, he believes that when the inflection point of housing prices appears, the tightening degree of macro-control policies will be reduced, and there may be certain opportunities in the real estate industry at that time. In addition, if liquidity improves obviously in stages, real estate stocks also have short-term opportunities to grasp.