But some trends can be predicted with confidence. Unless there is a global disaster, the population on the earth will be much larger than today. Fifty years ago, the world population was less than 3 billion. Since then, this number has more than doubled to 6.7 billion. The percentage growth rate has slowed down, but it is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. The surplus will almost entirely appear in developing countries, where there are far more young people than old people.
If population growth continues beyond 2050, people can only be extremely pessimistic about the prospects. Climate change will intensify the challenge of feeding such a rapidly growing population.
The world in 2050 will be warmer than today; Rainfall and drought patterns will be different around the world. If we pursue "business as usual", by 2050 or so, the carbon dioxide concentration will reach twice the pre-industrial level. The higher its concentration, the greater the degree of warming, and more importantly, the greater the possibility of causing serious and irreversible things: sea level rises due to the melting of Greenland ice sheet; Uncontrolled release of methane from tundra.
Some technological advances-such as information technology-surprised us at their rapid development; Others seem to be stagnant. It's only 12 years since the launch of man-made satellite and neil armstrong's landing on the moon. Many of us expected to build a lunar base within 30 years, or even explore Mars. But it has been more than 36 years since Jack Schmitt and eugene cernan, the last people to land on the moon, returned to Earth. Since then, hundreds of astronauts have entered orbit, but no one has ventured any further.
The Apollo program now seems to be a distant historical episode: young people all over the world know that the United States sent a man to the moon, just as they know that the Egyptians built the pyramids; In both cases, the motivation seems strange. The race to the moon is an end in itself-a grand stunt, driven by the competition of superpowers. Since then, the power of manned flight has disappeared. But, of course, we now rely on space (global positioning system, weather forecast and communication) in our daily life. Robotic exploration has flourished. Unmanned probes flying to other planets have sent back photos of different unique worlds.
I hope that by 2050, the whole solar system will be detected and mapped by a small robot fleet. Robots and "makers" may use raw materials that do not necessarily come from the earth to realize large-scale construction projects. But will people follow them? With every progress in robotics and miniaturization, the practical possibility of sending people into space is getting smaller and smaller. Nevertheless, I am still keen on manned flight-to the moon, to Mars and beyond-just as a long-distance adventure for human beings (at least a few people).
Today, the computing power of each mobile phone far exceeds that of the entire NASA in the1960s. Progress is making rapid progress. It is claimed that by 2050, computers will reach human capabilities. Of course, in some ways, they have already done it. Over the past 30 years, we have been able to buy calculators that greatly surpass us in arithmetic. IBM's "Deep Blue" defeated chess world champion K Aspa Love. However, even the most advanced robots can't recognize and move the pieces on a real chessboard as skillfully as a five-year-old child.
Deep Blue doesn't make strategies like human players: it uses its own computing speed to explore millions of alternative moves and responses, and then decides the best move. Similarly, machines may make scientific discoveries that the human brain cannot accomplish independently-but by testing millions of possibilities, not by a theory or strategy.
However, will we move forward and expand the scope of our consensus? Some aspects of reality-a unified physical theory or a theory of consciousness-may escape our understanding simply because they are beyond the capabilities of the human brain, just as quantum mechanics is bound to confuse chimpanzees.
We can confidently predict the continuous progress of computer capabilities, information technology, sequencing technology, interpretation technology and genome modification technology. However, by 2050, qualitative changes may occur. For example, one thing has not changed for thousands of years, and that is human nature and character. But in this century, drugs to enhance intelligence, genetics and "electronic man" technology may begin to change human beings themselves.
We should keep an open mind, or at least a half-open mind, about the concept of the edge of science fiction. Eccentric American futurists are not always wrong. They remind us that the super intelligent machine is the last tool that human beings may design-the machine itself will take over further work. Another guess is that human life may be greatly extended, which will seriously damage all population forecasts. At present, this hope leads some people to "freeze" their bodies after death, hoping to be resurrected in the future. For me, I will still choose to spend the rest of my life in a churchyard in England instead of a refrigerator in California.
We can make a firm prediction that is important to all "citizen scientists". There is bound to be a growing gap between what science enables us to do and the cautious or moral application we pursue.
Sometimes people mistakenly think that astronomers will be calmly indifferent to next year, next week and tomorrow when they think over billions of time spans. But the "cosmic perspective" actually strengthened my attention to the here and now.
Since Darwin, we have been familiar with the amazing time span in the history of evolution. But most people still think that we humans must be the apex of the evolutionary tree in some way. No astronomer will believe this.
Our sun was formed 4.5 billion years ago, but it will be formed for another 6 billion years before the fuel runs out. The expanding universe will continue-perhaps forever-to become colder and colder and emptier. As Woody Allen said, "Eternity is very long, especially at the end". Any creature that witnessed the demise of the sun, whether on earth or in distant places, would not be human. They will be different entities from us, just as we are different from a bug.
However, even in this "folded" timeline-extending millions of centuries into the future and also into the past-this century is special. This is the first time in the history of our planet that a species-us-holds the future of the earth, which will not only endanger itself, but also endanger the great potential of life.
Suppose some aliens have been observing our planet. In that long 4.5 billion years, the face of the earth will gradually change. But only in a small part of its history-in the past thousands of years-the pattern of vegetation has changed much faster than before. This marks the beginning of agriculture. With the growth of population, the speed of change has accelerated.
Then there were other changes, even more sudden. In the past 50 years-a little over one millionth of the earth's age-carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has started to rise extremely rapidly. This planet has become a dense radiation source of radio waves (TV, cell phone and radar signals). In addition, something unprecedented happened: small projectiles launched from the earth escaped from the biosphere. Some have been pushed into orbit around the earth; Some people went to the moon and other planets.
If they know astrophysics, aliens can confidently predict that when the sun erupts and dies, the biosphere will face destruction in billions of years. However, can they predict this unprecedented peak when the life on earth is less than half? Overall, these human-induced changes only occupy less than one millionth of the life cycle, and seem to occur at an out-of-control rate.
If they continue to observe, what will these imaginary aliens witness in the next few decades? Will the last spasm be followed by silence? Or will the earth itself stabilize? Will some objects launched from the earth produce new oases of life elsewhere?
The outcome depends on political choice. However, these choices will be influenced by effective idealistic scientists, environmentalists and humanists, and guided by the knowledge and technology that will be provided in 2 1 century.
It is a foolish attempt to make a technical prediction in 2050 beyond one's personal ability. Trying to predict social and geopolitical changes is even more excessive. In fact, the most important development and the most important qualitative leap are also the most impossible to predict. Even the best scientists didn't expect the influence of nuclear physics to be so great. Back in the 1950s, everyday consumer goods like the iPhone would be considered incredible.
However, we can predict some trends with confidence. For example, unless there is a global catastrophe, there will be much more people on the earth in the future than today. Fifty years ago, the population of the earth was less than three billion. Today, 50 years later, the population of the earth has more than doubled to 6.7 billion. Although the population growth rate has slowed down, by analogy, the population of the earth will reach 9 billion by 2050, and almost all the new population will come from developing countries, because the number of young people there now far exceeds that of the elderly.
If the population continues to grow after 2050, the prospects will undoubtedly be extremely bleak. Due to the influence of climate change, we are bound to face a more severe test to feed such a rapidly growing population.
By 2050, the global climate will be warmer than today; Rainfall and drought patterns around the world will also change. If we continue to "relax", by about 2050, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be twice that before industrialization. The higher the concentration of carbon dioxide, the higher the temperature will be-more importantly, it may also trigger some more serious and irreversible changes: the melting of Greenland ice sheet will lead to sea level rise; Methane release in permafrost is out of control.
Now some technologies (such as information technology) are developing at an amazing speed; While others seem to have stagnated. It was only twelve years before and after the Soviet Union launched Ponik satellite and neil armstrong took a "small step" on the moon. So many of us are looking forward to completing the construction of the lunar base and even exploring Mars within 30 years. However, more than 36 years have passed since Jack Schmitt and eugene cernan finally landed on the moon and returned to Earth. Since then, hundreds of astronauts have entered orbit, but no one has made any further attempts.
The Apollo program now looks like a distant historical event: young people all over the world listen to the story of Americans landing on the moon, just like listening to the story of Egyptians building pyramids; Its motivation is nothing more than innovation in one event after another. In fact, competing to land on the moon is the real purpose of landing on the moon-this is just a gorgeous "gimmick" performance driven by superpower competition. Since then, the power of manned flight has disappeared. Of course, our daily life today, such as GPS, weather forecast and communication, is inseparable from space. The exploration activities of robots have developed rapidly. Unmanned detectors on other planets have also sent back photos of various unique worlds.
It is hoped that by 2050, all kinds of micro-robot aircraft can complete the exploration of the whole solar system and draw a map. Robots and "makers" may make it possible to build large-scale construction projects using necessary non-earth raw materials. However, will people follow it? The reality of sending people into space makes every improvement of robots and miniaturization less convincing. Nevertheless, I still enthusiastically support manned flight-to the moon, Mars and even other planets-as a long-distance adventure for human beings (at least a few people).
Today, the computing power of every mobile phone is much stronger than that of NASA in the 1960s. The development of mobile phones is very rapid. It is said that computers will reach the level of human intelligence by 2050. In fact, they have undoubtedly reached the level of human intelligence in some aspects. As early as thirty years ago, we could buy calculators whose computing power greatly exceeded that of human beings. IBM's Deep Blue computer beat Kasparov, the world chess champion. However, even the most advanced robots can't recognize or move the chessboard in real life as skillfully as a five-year-old child.
"Deep Blue" doesn't calculate moves like human players, but uses its fast computing power to study millions of moves and countermeasures, and then chooses the best move from them. Similarly, machines can also make scientific discoveries beyond the understanding of the human brain. However, it does not use any theory or strategy, but tests millions of possibilities to complete the task.
So, can we continue to advance these cutting-edge sciences and expand our sympathetic understanding? Some aspects of reality, such as the unified theory of physics or cognitive theory, are difficult to understand, perhaps because they are beyond the understanding ability of the human brain, just as quantum mechanics is bound to confuse chimpanzees.
We can confidently predict that the performance, IT and technology of computers will continue to develop and can be used for genome sequencing, understanding and modifying the genome. However, by 2050, new changes will definitely take place. For example, human nature and personality have not changed for thousands of years. In this century, drugs, genes and "semi-robot" technology that improve intelligence may begin to change human beings themselves.
We should be open to ideas that are on the edge of science fiction, or at least half open. Eccentric American futurists are sometimes right. They remind us that machines with extraordinary intelligence are the ultimate instruments that human beings can design-machines will take over their future development. There is also a speculation that human life will be greatly prolonged, which will have a huge destructive impact on various population forecasts. At present, this hope has led some people to leave their last words and "freeze" their bodies in the hope of resurrection in the future. For me, I'd rather end up in a church in England than in a refrigerator in California.
We can definitely make a prediction that is important to all "scientist citizens". In other words, there must be a big gap between what science can make us do and the wise or moral application that science pursues.
Sometimes, people mistakenly imagine that astronomers who measure the time interval by billions of standards must be calm and don't care about tomorrow, next week or even next year. However, The Concept of the Universe really deepened my own concern for the present.
Since Darwin, we have been familiar with the amazing time interval in evolutionary history. However, I don't know why, most people still think that we humans must be the apex of the evolutionary tree. No astronomer believes this.
Our sun was formed 4.5 billion years ago, and its fuel will run out in 6 billion years. The expanding universe will continue-perhaps forever-to become colder and colder and more and more empty. As Woody Allen said, "Forever is a long time, especially in the end". Any creature that can witness the death of the sun, whether on today's earth or in a distant place, will not be human. They will be some kind of entity, different from us, just like we are different from bugs.
However, even on this "folded" timetable that extends into the future and past millions of centuries, this century is a special century. In the history of our earth, this is the first time that a species-we humans-have mastered the future of the earth, which may endanger not only ourselves, but also the great potential of life.
Suppose some aliens have been observing the whole history of our earth. With the passage of 4.5 billion years, the appearance of the earth must be changing gradually. However, in its short historical period-the past thousands of years-the appearance of plants has changed much faster than before. This marks the emergence of agriculture. With the growth of human beings, the speed of this change is getting faster and faster.
Then, there are other changes, more sudden changes. In the past 50 years-a little over one millionth of the earth's age-the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere began to rise extremely rapidly. The earth has become a dense transmitter of radio waves (TV, mobile phone, radar transmitter). Other unprecedented things have happened: small projectiles launched from the earth escaped from our biosphere. Some of them are pushed into orbit around the earth, while others fly to the moon and other planets.
If aliens know astrophysics, they may confidently predict that when the sun suddenly burns and then dies, the biosphere will face bad luck in billions of years. Can they predict the signal that life on earth is halfway through? Generally speaking, these man-made changes account for less than one millionth of the past life, but on the surface, they seem to be changing at an out-of-control speed.
If these hypothetical aliens continue to observe us, what will they witness in the coming decades? Will you be silent after the last spasm? Or will the earth itself stabilize? Will things launched from the earth breed new oases of life elsewhere?
The outcome depends on political choice. The knowledge and technology that will be provided in 2 1 century may lead influential and ideal scientists, human ecology experts and anthropologists to influence these choices.