The probability of being healthy and alive

This imagination full of brain holes, see how netizens answer.

Netizen one;

He must be strong enough. Let's assume that he is a normal person. He took the elixir of life in his twenties, which is a strong age and will remain like this forever. Since they are normal people, they will have secular desires and get married and have children. Assuming that he and his wife can live for 50 years, have many children and many descendants, then even if he does not dislike his wife's old age, how much he will experience wherever you go, and how many people with black hair will send white hair. How sad he should be when the pain of his loved one's death bombarded his heart over and over again. He must be very lucky. Imagine how many generations have gone through many wars since the Qin Dynasty. Foreign aggression, slaughter and burning are terrible. The first assumption is that he is lucky enough not to be dragged to be a strong man and not to have been on the battlefield for thousands of years. However, even if he avoids all major wars, who can guarantee that he will suddenly meet a robber, a mountain thief and so on? After all, public security was not good in the past. He is immortal, not immortal. The second hypothesis is that he was dragged into the army, and we can only pray for him. He must work hard enough. Times are progressing. If he doesn't work hard, he won't live in a new era. Assuming that he is a farmer, with the constant changes of the times, the types of crops will become more and more abundant. If he just keeps the concept of the Qin Dynasty unchanged, he may starve to death. So he must constantly learn new knowledge to adapt to the new trend of the times. If he was a politician or a soldier, my God, he should have died more than once. He must be healthy. No one forced you to get vaccinated in ancient times. Since the Qin Dynasty, there has been a great war. Where there is war, there are dead people, and where there are dead people, there is an epidemic. In troubled times, everyone is busy grabbing territory, and the living have no time to control the dead. Once the dead are left unattended, the epidemic will break out. Without a healthy body, how can we escape the epidemic? Even if you are gifted and not afraid of any virus, it is inevitable that some accidents will happen in your life, and all of them will cause harm. In the era of underdeveloped medicine, any small infection can be fatal. It's only four o'clock up there. How many people can do it? Finally, you don't even know how to spend a meaningful weekend. What's the use of this Millennium? Dude, be content.

Netizen 2;

It will take about two thousand years to live from the Qin Dynasty to the present, and at least the following conditions must be met: 1. Low-key: First of all, you can't be a big official or be famous. But if you are famous, many people will pay attention to you. Just like a star now, your personal space will be very small. If you go on like this, someone will soon discover the secret of your immortality, which will inevitably lead to death. 2. Have a safe living environment: even if you take the elixir of life, you will still die unnaturally. So you need to find a safe place to avoid all the wars, famines and natural disasters since the Qin Dynasty and ensure that you can live a safe life. 3. Let go of people and things: You can live forever, because you have taken the elixir of life, but your partner or children won't. For thousands of years, you have to go through countless times. Where will you go? White-haired people send black-haired people. You have to have a strong spiritual world, and you have to let it go to live, otherwise you may suddenly commit suicide. Finally, birth, old age, illness and death are normal natural laws. Immortality is often not as beautiful as everyone thinks, in a sense, it is even a kind of torture, so we should cherish every day we live and have no regrets in our later years. Before the analysis, we have to make the following assumptions: the elixir of life is real, it can keep people's physical function at the level when taking medicine, and people will not age. But the elixir of life is not an elixir of life, so it can't make people invulnerable. In other words, people will still die because of diseases, wars, accidents and many other factors. We began to analyze: the weather is unpredictable, and people are doomed. We can't 100% guarantee that we won't encounter any problems, so that we can live a healthy life, otherwise the insurance sellers will be unhappy. Let's assume that a person, such as Xiao Ming, will die of an accident or disease in one year. Of course, if Xiao Ming doesn't do it on purpose, the probability is very low. Based on the census data from 2000 to 20 10, the mortality rate of adults aged 30 -34 is about two per thousand. Assuming that Xiao Ming's physical function is in the prime of life, the probability of his death within one year is set to 0.002, from which the probability of his healthy life is 0.998. What are the chances that he will not die this year or next? According to probability theory, the probability is 0.998 times 0.998 equals 0. Now we throw Xiaoming back to the Qin Dynasty. Because there was no such high medical level in ancient times, the mortality rate was higher than now. Let's assume that it is three thousandths, so the probability that Xiao Ming will not die within one year is 0.997. So it is concluded that the probability of Xiao Ming's immortality from the Qin Dynasty in 200 BC to 20 17 is 22 17 times 0.997, which is the power of 22 17. The result is: 0.00, that is, the probability of his healthy life is about 0. 13%, and the probability of his death is about 99.87%. It can be said that Xiao Ming is dead. You may think that the data is very different from our cognition, which is the interesting thing about mathematics. In fact, our ancestors have a very profound summary of this. As the saying goes, we often walk by the river and have no shoes that are not wet. Small probability events will happen many times. Of course, this is all analyzed from a mathematical point of view. If you say that Xiao Ming can find a remote forest far away from disaster, he will certainly survive, then I have nothing to refute. But let Xiao Ming be so suicidal for two thousand years, I think he will commit suicide.

Netizen 3; The Qin dynasty is too long, but I know how to live from the Han dynasty to the present. I am incompetent. I studied under Mr. Mingze. My tutor has seen the sky and jumped out of life and death. At that time, I was just a child, and I happened to meet a mentor who wandered around the world. His old man saw that I had immortal life, so he took me as a disciple and taught me magic. But later, the other plane where the tutor was located changed, and only taught me the technique of immortality of the soul and some basic methods, so that I could take the body of the fetus and be reborn in the case of physical death. Before leaving, my tutor asked me to help Emperor Xiandi of Han restore his national prestige. If he really fails, he can also help his descendants. So, I first interviewed Cao Mengde, a captain at that time, and asked him to assassinate Dong Zhuo. However, I underestimated Dong Zhuo. He even got the help of a fairy middleman. I had to secretly rescue Mende and let him escape. For this reason, I was seriously injured, but my hard work also hit Dong Zhuo's guardian hard, making him unable to use spells for at least 200 years. After this failure, I knew that the big fellow had run out of luck and had to choose someone else. So I chose Liu Bei at that time. After having a secret talk with him, he promised me that he would raise the flag. I also used the secret method to summon two demons from hell, scattered their consciousness, sealed the ghosts in the bodies of two strong men, and used hypnosis to make them unconditionally loyal to Liu Bei. I don't need to tell you who these two people are, and that is Zhang Guan. At this time, my old injury recurred, so I tried my best to take away the body of a mortal named Zhuge Liang. I thought that with my psychic skills, I could completely help Liu Bei succeed. Unfortunately, Dong Zhuo's mysterious guardian miraculously recovered his mana and became Sima Yi, my greatest enemy. Even my seven-star light was destroyed by his spell, so I had to give up my body. Finally, when Liu Chan was captured by the enemy, I went to warn him to surrender, so as not to lose his life. Fortunately, the boy was obedient, and I reached an agreement with The Guardian to let Liu Chan die of natural causes. Later, my master sent me a space-time message telling me that there was a plane war and many spaces were broken. He is afraid that he will never get out for tens of thousands of years. So I wanted my master to help me kill the guardian, and I gave up. In the next 2000 years, we also fought countless wars, and with the improvement of mana, we also created several great dynasties. I gradually found that there are only two immortals in this world, and we actually began to appreciate each other. Do you think eternal life is happy? Immortality, watching the changes in the world, there is really no desire. I think one day we will choose to die together, not because of hatred, but because I don't want to live without her.

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