165438+1on the evening of 2 October, the general office of the State Council issued the document on printing and distributing the development plan of new energy automobile industry (202 1-2035? The development vision points out that by 2025, the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle market will be significantly enhanced, and the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new cars.
Compared with the exposure draft released at the end of last year, the sales target of new energy vehicles in 2025 has been lowered, from 25% to 20%. Industry experts believe that the new goal is easier to achieve. Behind the sales expectation and the downward adjustment of many indicators, the planning of the new energy automobile industry is more pragmatic and scientific. The industrial development plan not only weakens the hard indicators in quantity, but also emphasizes the construction of key technologies and infrastructure, which means that the new energy automobile industry is gradually changing from heavy to quality.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of China Automobile Industry Association, told Youzu (ID: Carcaijing) that industrial development planning, as an important programmatic document for the development of new energy automobile industry, reflects the country's emphasis on the development of new energy industry, emphasizes the development position of new energy in the whole automobile industry, and reaffirms that new energy is a national development strategy.
Before the retirement tide hit, power batteries were recycled step by step, and this industry with a scale of 43 billion gradually received due attention. The industrial development plan clearly proposes to improve the power battery recycling system and speed up the legislation of power battery recycling. Jiang Zhuoshan, project manager of Greenpeace, told Traveler (ID: carcaijing) that this is good news for the recycling industry and recycling industry, and he will be more confident to invest and develop under the new policy. But it still needs the investment of automobile manufacturers and battery manufacturers, who always play a key role in the whole industry.
Not only the new energy vehicles themselves, but also the industrial development plan tries to promote the layout and perfect exploration of the whole new energy industry chain, encourage enterprises in the fields of new energy vehicles, energy, transportation, information and communication to cooperate across borders, encourage enterprises in the fields of complete vehicles and parts, Internet, electronic information and communication to form alliances, deepen the reform of industry management internally, expand opening up and exchanges and cooperation externally, and accelerate their integration into the global value chain. The new energy automobile industry will be strengthened through systematic means.
Affected by this news, US stocks 165438+ 10 opened on the evening of October 2, and the shares of new energy vehicles rose collectively. As of the close of the day, NIO's share price rose by 8.96% to $33.32. Tucki (XPEV) shares rose 6.9 1% to $20.72; Ideality (Li) shares rose 13.44% to close at 22.88 yuan.
In addition, as of the close of 1 1.3, the new energy vehicle sector rose slightly as a whole, but BYD (002594, SZ), BAIC Blue Valley (600733, SH), power battery company Contemporary Ampu Technology Co., Ltd. (300750, SZ) and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech (002074). The charging pile plate rose slightly as a whole, and Hanyu Group (300403, SZ), a charging pile enterprise, led the increase by 20%.
In the Industrial Development Plan released this time, it is clearly stated that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles, and pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in 2035.
This index is basically consistent with the technical roadmap 2.0 of energy-saving and new energy vehicles recently released by China Automotive Engineering Society, but a more detailed scheme is given in the roadmap 2.0. Roadmap 2.0 points out that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 20%, 40% and 50% of the total vehicle sales in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively.
It is worth mentioning that compared with the draft for comments released at the end of last year, the sales target of new energy vehicles in 2025 has been lowered. According to the opinion draft, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 25%.
In this regard, Cao He, president of All-China Automobile Dealer Investment Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., told Youzu (ID: Carcaijing) that "industrial development planning is only an effort direction, and the hard binding is not strong. The sales target of 500,000 new energy vehicles proposed in the plan (20 12-2020) was also delayed by one year, 20%. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Federation, also said, "I personally think that the goal of 20% can be achieved and the goal of 25% is promising. "
In order to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the industrial development plan also mentioned that "from 202 1, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the public areas of the national ecological civilization experimental zone and the key areas for air pollution prevention and control shall not be less than 80%.
According to public information, there are currently four national ecological civilization experimental zones in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Hainan. In addition, according to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Key Areas issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the key areas for air pollution prevention and control mainly refer to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, as well as central Liaoning, Shandong, Wuhan and its surrounding areas, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Chengyu, West Coast of the Taiwan Strait, north-central Shanxi, Guanzhong, Gansu, Ningxia and Urumqi urban agglomerations in Xinjiang, * * * involving1.
In the previous opinion draft, the ratio was 100%. In addition, the new industrial development plan also cancels the requirement that the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars be reduced to 4.0L/ 100km. Behind the sales forecast and the downward adjustment of many indicators, it reflects that the industrial planning of new energy vehicles is more pragmatic and scientific, and quality is more important than quantity.
This "Industrial Development Plan" clearly stated that major breakthroughs should be made in key technologies such as power batteries, drive motors and vehicle operating systems; At the same time, in 2025, the average power consumption of new electric passenger cars will drop to 12.0 kWh/ 100 km.
The original intention of new energy industry is sustainable development. From the whole life cycle of electric vehicles, the index of power consumption has attracted more and more attention from the market. Among the current new energy vehicles, A00 class vehicles such as Euler Black Cat and Baojun E 100 have low power consumption, and the power consumption is basically controlled within 10 kWh/ 100 km. As for the Tesla model? The power consumption of S, Weilai ES8 and other large-size high-intelligence vehicles even soared to more than 18 kWh/ 100 km.
A new energy R&D engineer from a car company told a passenger (ID: carcaijing), "Quality and intelligent system have the greatest impact on power consumption. In theory, the bigger the car, the greater the power consumption, but in fact the power consumption is also related to tire resistance, wind resistance, air conditioning system, driving habits, energy feedback, etc. " And these, all need the whole industry upstream and downstream * * * progress together.
It is worth noting that the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry has unintentionally harmed the fish in the pool. Under the changes of capital blessing and industrial transformation, the status of electric machinery has been improved, and the position and treatment of R&D have also risen. This has affected the traditional internal combustion engine industry to some extent. Professor Su, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and director of the Academic Committee of the State Key Laboratory of Internal Combustion Engine Reliability, admits that it is unscientific and dangerous to criticize internal combustion engines by developing new energy sources in the market. Internal combustion engine is easy to lead to talent gap and the loss of industrial base of internal combustion engine. In fact, the promotion of new energy vehicles is not absolutely opposed to the development of traditional internal combustion engines. Internal combustion engines still actively embrace electrification technologies, such as fuel injection pumps and accessories, which are all products of electric drive.
The recycling of power batteries, the elephant in this room, is gradually receiving due attention.
According to Greenpeace's calculation, in 2030, there will be more than1.65,438+0twh (1.65,438+0 *1.9kwh) power batteries in China, and these fully charged batteries will be enough to supply power to Singapore for more than one week. Based on the service life of 5 -8 years and the loss of 20% electricity, the total amount of power batteries for passenger cars and commercial vehicles in China will reach 7.05 million tons in the next decade, equivalent to the total weight of 705 Eiffel Towers.
From 2002/KLOC-0 to 2025, new energy vehicles that enter the market in the rapid growth stage of new energy vehicles in China (20 14-20 18) will enter the retirement period. Whether to use the waste heat of retired batteries as a rich energy carrier or a heavy environmental burden has become an urgent problem on the table.
Compared with ordinary batteries, power batteries have higher energy density, more charge and discharge cycles, and better performance in dealing with extreme temperatures. To this end, retired power batteries have broader application scenarios, such as power generation, transmission and distribution links, 5G communication base stations, cloud computing data centers, etc., which can all be used as energy storage batteries.
Greenpeace proposed in the "Research Report on the Economic Potential of Voluntary Life Battery Cycle of New Energy Vehicles in 2030" that the battery capacity of electric vehicles in China will reach 32GWH in 2025, which can cover the standby power demand of 5G communication base stations nationwide. By 2030, the total value of cascade utilization of scrapped power batteries in China will be close to 43 billion yuan, with great potential. The production of power batteries needs a lot of metallic minerals such as nickel, cobalt and manganese. Through step-by-step recovery, it can not only reduce the environmental pollution caused by new mineral sources, but also ensure the supply safety of key metals at the national level.
The industry has already started to act. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and Baicheng New Energy Co., Ltd. set up a fast-paced new energy, and laid out a fast-charging station integrating storage, charging and inspection. Through the online detection technology of battery AI, the power batteries with good health and long life are analyzed and screened out, which are used in energy storage batteries, trucks, logistics vehicles, two-wheeled vehicles and other fields. For batteries with poor health, it can directly flow to the smelting mode of recycling, environmental protection and high conversion rate, and extract valuable technology from waste batteries efficiently.
From the perspective of the whole battery value chain, the industrial development plan puts forward the necessary conditions for establishing and perfecting the battery value chain circulation system, such as promoting cascade utilization, recycling resources and building a standardized system. However, the scale of power battery recycling industry still needs the support of all sectors of society. Compared with the production capacity of electric vehicles and batteries, the current situation of battery recycling is difficult to cope with the coming tide of battery scrapping.
China has promulgated laws and regulations on battery recycling, which are not perfect. For example, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Interim Measures for the Management of Power Battery Recycling for New Energy Vehicles and the Interim Provisions for the Traceability Management of Power Battery Recycling for New Energy Vehicles on 20 18, which clarified the roles and responsibilities of battery factories, vehicle manufacturers, scrap dismantling enterprises and comprehensive utilization enterprises in all aspects of design, production, recycling and disposal. However, the lack of supporting reward and punishment systems or licensing systems led to poor policy implementation. Moreover, the existing battery traceability system only needs enterprises to fill in the report independently, lacking regulatory constraints, and the recycling effect is difficult to evaluate.
In addition, the lack of uniform standards for the design and cascade utilization of power batteries, the low collection rate of retired batteries, and the impact on supply stability are all obstacles in the field of cascade utilization of retired batteries.
The Report on Recycling Technology and Industrial Development of Waste Power Batteries in China issued by the Institute of Process Engineering of China Academy of Sciences shows that the collection rate of waste lithium-ion batteries in Europe is 45%, while that in China is less than 40%. More than half of the waste lithium-ion batteries are missing.
The industrial development plan proposes to improve the recycling system of power battery recycling, cascade utilization and recycling, encourage * * * to build recycling channels, and accelerate the legislation of power battery recycling.
Jiang Zhuoshan told a reporter from Brigade 1 (ID: carcaijing) that for the recycling industry and recycling industry, they will be more confident to invest and develop under the new policy, which is good news for the recycling industry. But it still needs the investment of automobile manufacturers and battery manufacturers, who always play a key role in the whole industry.
Bangpu Cycle, the holding subsidiary of Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., has been able to recover metals such as nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium from waste batteries through the technology of "reverse product positioning design" and reduce them into reusable cathode materials for preparing batteries. The total recovery rate of core metals can reach over 99.3%, and there are 22 concave-convex circulation production lines with a production capacity of 80,000 tons/year.
Jiang Zhuoshan suggested that relevant departments should implement the extended producer responsibility system and establish a reward and punishment mechanism, so that battery and new energy automobile manufacturers can assume the responsibility of building a circular economy of power batteries.
In fact, industrial development planning not only plans and deploys the development of new energy vehicles, but also plans and deploys the integrated development of the entire industrial chain. According to the industrial development plan, with the comprehensive transformation of automobile power source, production and operation mode and consumption and use mode, the industrial ecology of new energy automobile is gradually evolving from the "chain relationship" among parts, vehicle R&D and production and marketing service enterprises to the "network ecology" in the fields of automobile, energy, transportation, information and communication.
The construction of "network ecology" cannot be separated from the support of infrastructure and industrial environment. In terms of infrastructure, the industrial development plan points out that China needs to continue to promote the construction of charging and replacing network: accelerate the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, improve the service level of charging infrastructure, and encourage business model innovation.
At present, with the development of new energy vehicles and the concept of "new infrastructure", China's new energy infrastructure has made great progress. According to the data of China Electric Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, from August 20 19 to July 2020, about 10000 public charging piles were added nationwide every month. By July 2020, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure in China was 1, 346,5438+0,000, up by 27.6% year-on-year.
It is understood that the current layout of charging piles has basically met the charging needs of public transportation, logistics and transportation, private travel and other fields. However, there are still some problems in the development of new energy infrastructure such as charging piles, such as uneven distribution and insufficient charging convenience, and charging difficulty has become one of the restrictive factors for the development of new energy industry. Some analysts pointed out that the promulgation of the Industrial Development Plan will accelerate the solution to the problem of imperfect development of new energy charging infrastructure.
The system construction of hydrogen energy has become the key content mentioned in the industrial development plan. The Industrial Development Plan points out that it is required to promote the construction of hydrogenation infrastructure, guide enterprises to rationally arrange hydrogenation infrastructure according to hydrogen fuel supply and consumption demand, and improve the level of safe operation; Carry out demonstration applications of various storage and transportation technologies such as high-pressure gas, cryogenic gas, cryogenic liquid and solid, explore the construction of hydrogen fuel transportation pipelines, and gradually reduce the storage and transportation costs of hydrogen fuel. At the same time, the industrial development plan further clarifies the contents of improving the application technology of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and promoting commercial demonstration operation.
In fact, as early as 20 19, hydrogen energy was written into the government work report for the first time, and the investment and layout of hydrogen energy upstream and downstream became a hot spot. CICC believes that hydrogen energy vehicles are the long-term development direction of the industry. The introduction of this policy will further accelerate the pace of industrial development and bring certain investment opportunities to hydrogen energy automobile manufacturers and related industrial chains.
Chen Shihua believes that hydrogen energy has been mentioned many times in industrial development planning, which fully reflects the country's emphasis on hydrogen energy development. "Due to the limitations of raw materials and technology, the development of hydrogen energy has not yet reached the most ideal solution. But in the long run, hydrogen energy is the best route to replace pure electricity, but its development still takes a long time. "
Generally speaking, the support scope of industrial development planning for new energy is not limited to new energy vehicles themselves, but by expanding the focus of industrial development, we will further explore the layout and improvement of the whole industrial chain of new energy. In terms of industrial environment, the industrial development plan proposes to encourage enterprises in the fields of new energy vehicles, energy, transportation, information and communication to cross-border cooperation, encourage enterprises in the fields of complete vehicles and parts, Internet, electronic information and communication to form alliances, deepen industrial management reform internally, expand opening up and exchanges and cooperation with the outside world, and accelerate integration into the global value chain.
Driven by the policy, the investment and development of the whole new energy industry chain will have more imagination in the future. The research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that the industrial development plan once again clarified the long-term development of electric vehicles and further enhanced the certainty of investment in the industrial chain of new energy vehicles; From a global perspective, China's electrified supply chain has developed rapidly and is the most perfect. Leading enterprises have overseas supply, and their value as global high-quality manufacturing assets is prominent.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.