In recent two years, there have been fewer and fewer voices in China about setting a timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, but comparatively speaking, both the main engine factory and the intelligent storage area have formed a * * * knowledge that electric or electric drive will progress more rapidly in the automobile industry. It is an interesting phenomenon that many car companies have announced the timetable for pure fuel vehicles to withdraw from the historical stage ahead of managers after they announced full electrification.
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Since the emergence of new energy sources, the news about banning the sale of fuel vehicles has never stopped. However, the recent comprehensive multi-party information seems to emphasize "comprehensive electric drive plan" instead of banning the sale of fuel vehicles. This was clearly declared in the Technical Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles 2. released at the annual meeting of China Automotive Engineering Society not long ago (see "Comprehensive Interpretation of the New Automotive Technology Roadmap and Six Questions It Faced" for details).
it seems that such a technical roadmap has formed a * * * knowledge among the major automobile brands in the world, and they have given their own timetables for all-round electric drive.
on October 19th, Volvo announced that it would stop selling fuel vehicles in 225, and the models sold after 225 will be half pure electric vehicles and half hybrid vehicles.
Just this month, on November 5th, Nissan also announced that it plans to stop selling its fuel vehicles after 225, and shift its research and development and sales direction to pure electric and hybrid vehicles. It is reported that Nissan originally planned to electrify 5% of its sales models in 223, and will launch at least five pure electric vehicles in China in 225.
the wording "comprehensive electric drive plan" is obviously smoother than the one-size-fits-all ban on fuel vehicles, which not only affirms the direction of electrification, but also enhances the importance of hybrid vehicles again.
On November 8th, it was written in the Development Plan of New Energy Automobile Industry (221-235) issued by the China Municipal Government: By 225, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 2% of the total sales volume of new vehicles.
There are still five years before 225, and during this period, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China needs to rise from about 5% to about 2%.
Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the routine briefing of the State Council's policy that if the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaches 5% this year, it will be very difficult to achieve the goal of 2% sales of new energy vehicles in the next five years, and the compound annual growth rate must reach more than 3%. He believes that in order to achieve the goal of 2%, we need to learn from European countries and make efforts in both directions, from both supply and demand.
Xin Guobin said that after comprehensive consideration, the target was finally set at 2%, but according to the current state of industrial development, it also needs concerted efforts.
if the total sales volume of China in 219 is 25 million, if the sales volume remains unchanged, the proportion of new energy will reach 5 million in five years, and the new energy here refers to pure electric and plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cells. Of course, with the continuous growth of automobile sales, this number is likely to increase.
On October 27th, during the 22 annual meeting of China Automotive Engineering Society, Li Jun, academician of China Academy of Engineering and chairman of China Automotive Engineering Society, officially released the version of Technology Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles 2..
Li Jun said: "Roadmap 2. will strongly support China's research on the planning of new energy vehicles in 235 and the scientific and technological planning in the Tenth Five-Year Plan."
Li Jun also said, "It is predicted that by 235, passenger cars powered by traditional energy will be fully converted into hybrid power, and new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, accounting for more than 5% of sales." That is, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for 5%.
now, after the official release of the 2. roadmap, a new item "By 235, traditional energy-powered passenger cars will be fully converted into hybrid power" has been added.
In this regard, the outside media misread that pure fuel vehicles will be banned in 235, but the road map 2. does not give a specific and detailed plan or timetable for the ban on fuel vehicles.
When talking to the experts who drafted this roadmap, Zhi Jiajun got the answer that as far as the overall market of China is concerned, the sale of fuel vehicles will not be banned, but it is possible in some cities, but it is a knowledge in the industry that pure fuel vehicles will be eliminated. Light mixing, especially 48V light mixing, will surely become the main direction of upgrading the main fuel vehicles in the future and become the standard in the market.
according to the latest planning of the automobile industry, if the description in technical route 2. is followed, the future automobiles will be either new energy sources (including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuels) or energy-saving automobiles (including extended-range hybrids and light hybrids), and fuel vehicles will be fully light-blended.
combined with the plans of Volvo and Nissan, it seems that the market life of pure fuel vehicles will end in 225, with only five years left?
is this the timetable for the whole industry?
compared with the previous radicalism, why did China soften the "no-fuel vehicles"?
At present, the timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles in many countries has been circulating in the international community. This is a mixed bag of fish and dragons. The research reports or motions of some political parties and even some associations were wrongly transmitted to China and misrepresented as a real timetable.
for example, Norway and the Netherlands have announced that they will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 225, Germany and India will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 23, and France will set it for 24.
Only Norway is true. And how can a fuel car giant like Germany ban the sale of fuel in 23?
* The widely misinformed timetable for countries to ban fuel sales
However, at the planning level, it is Britain that really has this intention. Around 218, the British government announced that from 24, it is not allowed to sell newly produced internal combustion engine vehicles in China, and ultra-low emission vehicles (including hybrid and plug-in hybrid) with carbon dioxide emissions below 75g/km are still allowed to be sold.
But on February 4th this year, it was reported in Reuters that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson? Johnson) announced that Britain plans to ban the sale of newly produced gasoline and diesel vehicles by 235, including hybrid models and plug-in hybrid models. He also announced that Britain will set the goal of "net zero emission" in 25 this year.
according to the current plan made in Britain, only pure electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles can be put on the market after the plan is implemented in 235.
it should be pointed out that this is still a plan and has not become a government decision.
However, although China, Europe and the United States have heated debates about banning the sale of fuel vehicles, it is behind the rigid requirements of the Paris Agreement reached by major countries in the world on carbon emissions of all countries.
China is under pressure to be carbon neutral by 26.
In this regard, Hainan Province took the lead in taking the first step to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, and introduced the regulations to completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 23.
it is worth noting that among the independent brand car companies, Changan Automobile and BAIC have also launched their own "no-burning timetable" when the no-burning order is noisy.
changan announced in 217 that it would ban the sale of fuel vehicles after 225, and BAIC also announced in 217 that it would ban the sale of fuel vehicles after 22.
obviously, however, BAIC's promise failed. In 22, when the sales of BAIC's new energy were much worse than before, BAIC still launched a variety of fuel vehicles.
today, it means a joke.
However, it is not feasible to ban combustion. The rise of the new energy vehicle market in the past five years and the frequent fire incidents of electric vehicles are making light mixing an insurmountable technical choice in the transition period.
On the other hand, the hot sale in Li ONE and the correlation between the sales volume of new energy and policies have also caused considerable differences in the replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy products.
only from the delivery volume in October, Li ONE sold 3,692 vehicles in a single month, ranking first among new energy SUVs, while most of the ideal customer groups are limited cities but need users without mileage anxiety.
The new energy market in Shanghai is particularly hot after Shanghai imposed restrictions on foreign vehicles last month. According to the forecast, the sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai are expected to increase by 68% year-on-year.
It can be seen that the current new energy has not taken the policy orientation, and there is still a gap due to the cost, actual performance, distance and the equal status of fuel vehicles.
Wang Binggang, the leader of the national expert group of new energy vehicle innovation project, said earlier that China's new energy vehicle industry has gradually stepped out in the cultivation period guided by government policy incentives, and will enter a period of rapid development, and the impact of rapid development on the industrial chain is enormous, so the industrial chain of new energy vehicles should be well deployed.
Xin Guobin said at the above-mentioned the State Council policy briefing that to promote the goal of 2%, we need to learn from European countries and make efforts in both directions, from both supply and demand. On the supply side, it is necessary to continuously strengthen technical research around key factors such as reducing costs and improving safety, develop advanced, applicable and reliable products, and accelerate the formation of greater market competitive advantages.
on the demand side, it is also necessary to strengthen policy guidance, introduce some preferential policies to encourage the use of new energy vehicles, optimize classified traffic management measures, encourage business model innovation such as power exchange, and at the same time, accelerate the electrification of vehicles in the public sector and increase the promotion of new energy vehicles to the countryside, so as to continuously improve the user experience.
therefore, on the whole, although the sales target of 2% new energy is lower than before, it is not low in combination with the actual situation, and it still needs the concerted efforts of all practitioners, so it is a better choice to slowly transition from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles.
light mixing will soon become the standard
At present, although the goal of new energy vehicles in the next five years has been determined, fuel vehicles will still be the mainstream in the foreseeable 1 years. In order to make fuel vehicles become energy-saving vehicles, 48V light mixing has almost become the standard product of all families.
Unlike Toyota and Honda, the 48V light mixing technology has only begun to take off in recent years. However, under the pressure of increasing fuel economy requirements of motor vehicles in various countries, this technology has made good progress in just a few years because of its small design changes to existing models and good results.
most vehicles equipped with 48V mild hybrid system usually have an extra battery and a small motor. Therefore, functions such as enhanced capacity recovery and engine starting assisted by motor can be realized.
therefore, with lower cost, the light mixing system makes the engine have less load at the start, and can make the engine start and stop for a longer time when it is congested, with high cost performance. At present, whether it is luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Land Rover, or domestic brands such as Geely and Great Wall, many major brands are equipped with 48V light mixing systems.
Besides being more environmentally friendly, this light mixing system can restrain the vibration and engine jitter during starting.
of course, the more important thing is the cost, which has almost negligible influence on the selling price.
the overall trend of the development of 48V light-mixing technology has been relatively clear, and high-end luxury brands are gradually popularized. It is only a matter of time before top-down brands are promoted. Energy conservation and emission reduction are the general direction, and the era of 48V light-mixing is coming. I believe that the team of several young mixed vehicles will expand exponentially in the future.
Therefore, on the whole, the internal combustion engine will not disappear, but the era when the internal combustion engine exists alone will soon pass. From the policy point of view, the development direction of new energy has not changed, but the products of new energy still need continuous support and development, and for a long time to come, hybrid technologies, including plug-in, oil-electric type, range extension and light mixing, will become the main technical routes for each market competition.
China's pure electric road map was once the most radical industrial road map in the world. Since Tesla entered China in 214, the new car-making movement promoted by the capital market has activated the pure electric vehicle industry in China. In the past six years, stories, legends and farce have made electric vehicles accepted by consumers, but its problems have also made decision makers reduce the industrial route policy of the Great Leap Forward and become rational and pragmatic.
in this process, the time between the internal combustion engine and the motor is coming quietly, and it will have strong vitality.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.