Fixed income category: volatility increases and risk increases.
From the perspective of the supply side of fixed-income products, with the continuous compression or even upside down of asset management business and product spreads, the fund pool model is banned and the asset management scale is drastically reduced. It is expected that the supply of income-generating products will continue to decrease, and capital preservation financing may gradually withdraw.
From the demand side of fixed income products, with the breaking of the expectation of just exchange, the risk of basic assets will increase, and the demand for all kinds of high-yield and just exchange asset management products will decrease. The transformation of wealth management, trust and other products into net-worth products has also subverted the consistent image of "small fluctuations and low risks" of such products, making it difficult for customers with low risk appetite and conservative investment to accept.
To put it another way, it is extremely clear that any product will face net value fluctuation in the future, and investors will bear risks. For investors, either take the initiative to accept risks and actively seek matching returns while taking risks; Either passively accept the risk, take the risk in the seemingly low-risk products, and take the extra risk that the income does not match the risk.
Equity assets: the most cost-effective long-term allocation.
Equity assets are mainly stocks. 20 17 is a year when the A-share market is open to the outside world, and the internationalization trend of the A-share market is accelerating. The first turning point of 20 17 was MSCI's announcement that it was formally incorporated into the A-share market in June, and the second turning point was the recently announced opening and strengthening of the financial industry (relaxing the proportion of foreign shares), which promoted its integration into the global capital market from the aspects of marketization and system.
As of the end of 20 17 and 12, the cumulative net buying turnover of land stock connect was close to 340 billion yuan, and the daily average buying turnover kept rising. 20 17 in the first three quarters, the RMB stock assets held overseas have exceeded one trillion yuan. In addition, social security funds and pensions are also entering the A-share market in an orderly manner, providing effective support for the long-term strength of the A-share market.
At present, the valuation of China A-share market is at a low level in the world. Judging from the absolute valuation level, the P/E ratios of 12-month Overseas Chinese Stock Index, Hong Kong Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index and A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index are 15. 1 times, 8.8 times and 15.2 times respectively, and the absolute valuation level is at a low level and far lower than that of US stocks. Judging from the relative valuation level, the current valuation of A-shares is about 60% in the past decade, while Hong Kong stocks are at the median level, and the overseas Chinese stocks are higher, at around 80% in the quantile, but not high in major global markets.
On the whole, the historical increase and valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are low on a global scale, and the overall cost performance is high.
Commodities: Standard Diversified Portfolio Risk
The investment income of crude oil commodities in 20 17 years is about 10%. In 20 18, the growth of commodity supply was slower than the demand, and there was room for upward price. Crude oil supply contract under production reduction agreement. Based on the strong implementation of the production reduction agreement and the strong growth of demand under the background of global economic recovery, the supply and demand of 20 18 crude oil are basically balanced, and even the supply exceeds demand. The price is expected to go up.
20 17 The rise of international gold price is mainly driven by the decline of the US dollar index and the safe-haven demand caused by geopolitics. Considering the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates three times on 20 18, this will bring downward pressure on the price of gold. From the trend, the pressure in the first half of the year is greater than that in the second half.
On the whole, commodities, as an important representative of alternative investment, are mainly used to diversify portfolio risks and are suitable for standard allocation.
Equity investment: the next export of asset allocation
20 17 with the acceleration of IPO, the exit channel of equity has been cleared, the venture capital market and private equity investment have gradually become reasonable, and equity investment has become one of the more common asset allocation methods in the market. Internet, health, advanced manufacturing, education and entertainment media have become the focus of investors' attention.
Equity investment has gradually become another new export of wealth management. Although it has the disadvantage of long cycle, under the guidance of national strategy, equity products still have high allocation value under the condition of high average return on investment in the market.
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Looking forward to 20 18, we can use "seeking stability in risks" to describe the asset allocation strategy of large categories. Generally speaking, A shares and Hong Kong stocks are cost-effective; Commodities are suitable for bidding, which are mainly used to diversify portfolio investment risks; Fixed income products will break expectations, the risk of underlying assets will increase, and its consistent image of "small fluctuations and small risks" will be subverted; Equity investment has become a sharp weapon for asset allocation.
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Disclaimer: This article only represents the author's personal views and does not constitute any investment advice.