Analysis of the causes and effects of this financial crisis
In 2007, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for more than a dozen times in a row, the real estate market cooled down, and rating agencies downgraded subprime loans.
Derivatives rating, investment banks selling subprime loans, subprime mortgage crisis began to focus on the outbreak. Especially in September this year,
The collapse of the three major investment banks in the United States and the rapid deterioration of the capital structure of financial institutions such as insurance have triggered comprehensive finance.
Crisis.
1, the main reasons for the financial crisis: First, the long-term low interest rate level has buried hidden dangers. In response,
In response to the economic downturn caused by the bursting of the technology stock bubble, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates continuously from 200 1 to 2003, with the lowest decline.
To 1%. Long-term low interest rates have stimulated the soaring real estate prices and the subprime derivatives of housing mortgage loans.
The products developed rapidly. Second, the lack of supervision leads to the spread of risks. Financial institutions represented by investment behavior cover up the risks in various derivative financial products through complicated splitting and packaging, which not only expands.
Demand for non-performing loans, and transfer non-performing loans to more investors. The third is highly leveraged trading.
Enlarge the subprime mortgage. In fact, American subprime loans only account for 14. 1% of the total American real estate loans, which is about 1. 1.
Trillion-1.2 trillion, the scale of such subprime loans is not enough to lead to a financial crisis that affects the overall situation.
This is mainly the leveraged transaction in the process of asset securitization, which has caused the scale of subprime loans to multiply step by step.
2. The fundamental factor of the financial crisis: the unsustainable supply and demand pattern of the world economy.
Today's world economic structure is the excessive consumption of the United States and the excessive supply of developing countries, and the United States has been eliminated.
Fee is a powerful engine of global economic development. Because American household savings are negative, consumption support mainly
It is the appreciation of financial assets and real estate, which means that American finance and real estate should be constantly blown up.
Bubbles support excessive consumption. But the bubble is always limited, which also determines that the outbreak of the financial crisis is
Intrinsic inevitability.
This financial crisis will have a great impact on the world economy and will last for a long time.
It is expected to last at least until 20 10.
Compared with the historical financial crisis, especially 1929, the countermeasures for this financial crisis are as follows.
Advantages: First, central banks have joined hands to cut interest rates and inject a lot of liquidity into the market. The second is business.
Industrial Bank is sound. The financial crisis destroyed the payment system and caused the most serious damage to the real economy.
Yes, but so far, there have been no major problems in American commercial banks. Third, the government intervened in the economy.
Become * * * knowledge, and further enrich the means of regulation. Fourth, the attitude of global cooperation has not triggered trade.
Protectionism. However, we must also see that this crisis happened at the core of the global financial system, today.
American economic scale, credit market, futures market, various derivatives scale, high currency multiplier and gold.
Leverage, as well as the degree of global economic integration, far exceeds any crisis in history, with a slight decline.
If handled carelessly, the world economy will enter a medium-and long-term recession. From a deeper perspective, this financial crisis is correct.
The impact on the economy is mainly manifested in the adjustment of the supply and demand model of the world economy. At present, the new economy also
There is no sign that the conditions for blowing another huge bubble have not been met and American consumption lacks support.
Deceleration is undoubtedly. Because it is difficult for developing countries to significantly increase domestic demand in the short term to make up for the decrease in the United States.
Fee, this adjustment will last for a long time. Predict the impact of the financial crisis on the world economy.
It will last at least until 20 10.
At present, this crisis has a great impact on China's economy, but considering China's
The savings rate is very high, which can stimulate demand when the economy goes down, so there is a lot of room for manoeuvre, and the decline in external demand will not cause a fundamental blow. However, we should see that if the financial crisis further increases its impact on world entities.
The destructive power of the economy will also have a great impact on China's economy. After the financial crisis led to the domestic and international economy
Under the background of economic slowdown, although our province's economy has a low dependence on foreign trade, its economy has been affected.
Inevitable. In particular, the current sharp drop in international commodity prices is bound to rely mainly on the resource industry.
Our province has a great influence. At present, our province should speed up the adjustment and upgrading of traditional industries and consolidate its development advantages;
Vigorously develop high-tech industries such as biology, energy conservation and environmental protection, public safety, creativity and electronic information.
Cultivate new growth points and enhance the supporting force of economic development.
References:
An analysis of the causes and effects of the world financial crisis
Respondent: Yuji 2010-3-13:17 in Shijie Street.
Financial crisis refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions) in a country or several countries and regions.
1. The financial crisis originated in America. Causes of financial crisis: The credit expansion caused by fictitious economy and the bursting of economic bubble are the main causes of financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse. Sub-prime bonds are actually only $600 billion, which caused such a big financial crisis because of following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. Herd effect refers to the situation that investors have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information in the market. Theoretically speaking, herding behavior will aggravate market fluctuation and become the key to the success of leaders' behavior. In the following situations, sesame seed cake is the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgage is the leader.
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell baked wheat cakes, each selling 20 cakes a day (because the demand for baked wheat cakes is only 40), and the output value of one yuan per day is 40 yuan. Later, they discussed and bought 100(A bought it from B and B 100 bought it from A 100).
If the price of sesame cakes traded with each other is 5 yuan, the daily transaction amount is 1040 yuan. At this time, A and B will raise the market biscuits to 2 yuan. Some people heard that sesame seed cakes 1 were sold in 5 yuan, but when they saw that there was only 2 yuan in the market, they quickly bought them. -The bubble economy came into being.
Baked sesame seeds can't be cooked at once, so buy forward cakes. A, Otsuichi increased the number of baked wheat cakes (up to 100 per day), on the other hand, it sold forward baked wheat cakes, and at the same time began to issue baked wheat cakes bonds. Buyers use cash and mortgages to buy. -Financing, financial intervention.
Some people want to buy it, and they have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subordinated biscuit bonds to buy insurance from insurance institutions-subprime bonds have planted seeds for the subprime mortgage crisis.
One day, I found that I couldn't eat the biscuits I bought. If it is stored in one place and moldy, I will sell it soon, even if the price is lower. The bubble burst.
This is how the financial crisis broke out. Cookie shop layoffs (as long as 40 cookies a day)-unemployment; Sesame cake bonds become waste paper-subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loan (collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of the lending bank, the bankruptcy of the insurance company and so on. -Financial crisis
3. In the process from subprime mortgage crisis to financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives have played an amplification role.
4. deeper level
(1) Long-term accumulation of early consumption. In the United States, early consumption has been popular for a long time, encouraging people to buy houses, cars and high-end consumer goods. In order to pursue high profits, banks issue credit cards to residents to encourage consumption in advance. Enjoy today with tomorrow's money "Let your dreams come early and make them come true." Being able to earn and spend is the pride of the times. " To put it bluntly, this kind of advanced consumption has also brought temporary prosperity for several years. However, this kind of advanced purchasing power in the future, after all, is "unable to make ends meet", with bubbles, temporary prosperity and illusory colors. Once the economy is depressed, a large number of unemployed people will not pay their debts, and consumers' ability to pay will drop sharply. American subprime debts will be highlighted in front of the world, banks will have piles of bad debts, and some investment banks will face bankruptcy.
(2) American banks bear high salaries. The American banking industry has been pampered for a long time and seems to be a "favored son of heaven." High-level leaders are well paid, with millions of annual salaries everywhere and hundreds of thousands of middle-level white-collar workers. For a long time, the banking industry has covered up the contradiction because of the huge amount of loans and rich profits. Although the salary is high every year, it can get by. Once the debtor is unable to pay his debts, a batch of bad debts will appear, forming a triangular debt. At first, the bank was in trouble, and then it suffered huge losses. So a lot of layoffs. If we seriously reflect, high salary is an excessive enjoyment of economic achievements and contains exploitation factors. Or it is a foolish act of "fishing with exhausted resources" and "killing the goose to get the egg".
(3) The United States currently lacks emerging industries. Over the years, emerging industries in the United States have often led the world trend. Such as expressway, automobile industry, aviation industry and electronic communication industry. For example, the software and hardware of computers and mobile phones are far ahead. When many countries were still in infancy, the United States had formed an industry on a large scale. However, in the past ten years, these leading industries in the United States have been hovering, while many countries in the world are catching up quickly. The electronic industries such as computers and mobile phones have developed rapidly, and the advantages of the United States have weakened relatively, or gradually lost their advantages.
Rome was not built in a day. The financial crisis in the United States is a long-term accumulation, which inspires people to learn from it. We should proceed from our own reality and do a good job in China. This is also a good way to resolve the impact of the US financial crisis on China.
5. The financial crisis has spread all over the world, affecting China. Part of the country's foreign exchange reserves are lost, making it difficult to export. Economic growth slows down, unemployment increases, people's income declines, consumption decreases, and the market is depressed. If it is serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Motor City), the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to some extent. China's RMB is strictly managed under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not great. Now, with more than 70 banks in the United States tending to close down, China's financial system is running well and its economy is growing at a certain speed. At the same time, the state is also taking measures such as expanding finance, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and stimulating domestic demand of 4 trillion yuan. Now, the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If all macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China will be able to improve in about 65,438+0 years.
Affected by the international financial crisis, the growth rate of China's home appliance industry slowed down significantly. In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative output growth rate of China's household appliances industry decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, and the sales revenue growth rate decreased by 15% year-on-year.
Facing the grim situation, domestic household appliance enterprises actively expand the market and turn "crisis" into "opportunity". Many dominant brand enterprises have grown against the trend, and Haier, Galanz, Midea and Jiuyang have all achieved their expected sales targets.
Strive to expand market share
Affected by many factors, such as the price increase of raw materials and the rise of RMB exchange rate, the cold winter of home appliance industry began to appear in the second half of 2007. "The price of raw materials has fallen sharply, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable for four consecutive months, and the tension between labor and capital has also eased." Lu Jianbo, Deputy Secretary-General of china electronic chamber of commerce, believes that the reduction of the production cost of household appliances paves the way for the price reduction of domestic household appliances.
Color TV has always been a pioneer in leading the price reduction of household appliances. In this round of price adjustment, domestic color TV brands have reduced the prices of all series products without exception, and the average decline of domestic LCD TVs over 32 inches is more than 1,000 yuan. The price reduction of washing machines reached an all-time high, with an average drop of 20% to 30%. In the air-conditioning market, Changhong and Hisense successfully entered the field of compressors, which improved the competitiveness of domestic brands. The price of some Grade 2 energy-efficient air conditioners in Changhong has been equivalent to that of Grade 4 and Grade 5 energy-efficient air conditioners of other brands. Galanz also lowered the price of its Class 2 energy-efficient air conditioner by nearly 30%.
The price reduction of home appliances driven by the easing of cost pressure has rapidly increased the market share of local brands. In the flat-panel TV market, local brands have occupied the mainstream of the market, not only maintaining the advantages of the secondary and tertiary markets, but also occupying about 50% of the primary market. In the first half of this year, among the top 10 brands in washing machine sales, the comparison between domestic brands and foreign brands maintained an expanding trend, and the market share rose from 59. 12% last year to 62.29% this year. In the air-conditioning market, the shipments of Haier, Gree and Midea accounted for 66.89% of the total shipments of the industry in 2008, an increase of 17.65% over 2007.
Going to the countryside to incite the rural market
The implementation of the policy of "home appliances going to the countryside" has provided new development opportunities for the home appliance industry. Statistics show that the pilot project of "home appliances going to the countryside" in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces has driven the sales of rural home appliances to increase by more than 4 billion yuan, and the sales growth of pilot products is more than 30% higher than the national average.
In June 2008, a new round of "home appliances going to the countryside" was launched. Beneficiary areas were further expanded, covering 392 million rural residents. Rural products have also expanded to color TV sets, washing machines outside refrigerators, mobile phones and other categories.
Huo, chairman of China Household Electrical Appliances Association, predicts that the expanded "Home Appliances to the Countryside" project will drive the annual market demand of rural home appliances and services of 46.524 billion yuan, "which will undoubtedly bring new opportunities to home appliance enterprises."
Domestic home appliance enterprises actively bid and achieved fruitful results. Judging from the winning bid, almost all the dominant enterprises in the industry were successfully selected. Haier won the bid in the fields of refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and mobile phones. The winning models are 10, 15, 15 and 10 respectively. Konka I * * * won the bid for 14 color TV,1/refrigerator,1/mobile phone, 10 freezer; Hisense Group * * * won the bid for 75 products such as TV, refrigerator and mobile phone; 77 refrigerators, freezers and washing machines from Midea, Little Swan, Rongshida and Xueer are also the winning series.
Adjust and explore emerging markets
"The decline in the European and American markets is a foregone conclusion, and the demand in emerging markets is still growing rapidly." Yu, executive vice president of Galanz Group, said. It is understood that the sales volume of Galanz microwave ovens reached 25 million units in 2007, accounting for 70% of the total export volume. Up to now, Galanz's exports to the United States have only increased by 18%, while those in other markets have increased by 50%.
On June 5438+065438+1October 17, 2008, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued an announcement to increase the tax rebate rate of household appliances from 13% to 14%. The increase of tax rebate rate has boosted the confidence of enterprises to a certain extent. In the case that the export orders of home appliances will continue to decrease next year, enterprises have adjusted their export strategies, strengthened internal management, and regarded emerging markets as growth points.
According to Kuang Yubin, overseas vice president of Skyworth Group, even in the context of the decline in color TV exports, Skyworth expects the export volume to increase by 80%-90% this year. Skyworth's success benefits from the adjustment of export strategy. A year ago, Skyworth believed that it did not have obvious competitive advantages in the European and American markets in the short term, but focused on developing countries with relatively stable market capacity and large growth space. This enabled Skyworth to avoid the decline in exports during the global financial crisis and maintain a large growth through major customers.
Every major change in the economic situation will bring about the upgrading of the industry and the adjustment or reshuffle of the industrial structure. China enterprises have stronger anti-risk ability than foreign-funded enterprises. With the continuous introduction of national macro-control measures, enterprises can turn challenges into opportunities if they can seize opportunities. Lu Jianbo believes that as a fully competitive home appliance industry, it is fully capable of getting out of the current market predicament and welcoming better development opportunities.
Respondent: China-Assistant Level 3 2008-12-1418: 56.
Affected by the international financial crisis, the growth rate of China's home appliance industry slowed down significantly. In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative output growth rate of China's household appliances industry decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, and the sales revenue growth rate decreased by 15% year-on-year.
Facing the grim situation, domestic household appliance enterprises actively expand the market and turn "crisis" into "opportunity". Many dominant brand enterprises have grown against the trend, and Haier, Galanz, Midea and Jiuyang have all achieved their expected sales targets.
Strive to expand market share
Affected by many factors, such as the rising price of raw materials and RMB exchange rate, the cold winter of home appliance industry began to appear in the second half of 2007. "The price of raw materials has fallen sharply, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable for four consecutive months, and the tension between labor and capital has also eased." Lu Jianbo, Deputy Secretary-General of china electronic chamber of commerce, believes that the reduction of the production cost of household appliances paves the way for the price reduction of domestic household appliances.
Color TV has always been a pioneer in leading the price reduction of household appliances. In this round of price adjustment, domestic color TV brands have reduced the prices of all series products without exception, and the average decline of domestic LCD TVs over 32 inches is more than 1,000 yuan. The price reduction of washing machines reached an all-time high, with an average drop of 20% to 30%. In the air-conditioning market, Changhong and Hisense successfully entered the field of compressors, which improved the competitiveness of domestic brands. The price of some Grade 2 energy-efficient air conditioners in Changhong has been equivalent to that of Grade 4 and Grade 5 energy-efficient air conditioners of other brands. Galanz also lowered the price of its Class 2 energy-efficient air conditioner by nearly 30%.
The price reduction of home appliances driven by the easing of cost pressure has rapidly increased the market share of local brands. In the flat-panel TV market, local brands have occupied the mainstream of the market, not only maintaining the advantages of the secondary and tertiary markets, but also occupying about 50% of the primary market. In the first half of this year, among the top 10 brands in washing machine sales, the comparison between domestic brands and foreign brands maintained an expanding trend, and the market share rose from 59. 12% last year to 62.29% this year. In the air-conditioning market, the shipments of Haier, Gree and Midea accounted for 66.89% of the total shipments of the industry in 2008, an increase of 17.65% over 2007.
Going to the countryside to incite the rural market
The implementation of the policy of "home appliances going to the countryside" has provided new development opportunities for the home appliance industry. Statistics show that the pilot project of "home appliances going to the countryside" in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces has driven the sales of rural home appliances to increase by more than 4 billion yuan, and the sales growth of pilot products is more than 30% higher than the national average.
In June 2008, a new round of "home appliances going to the countryside" was launched. Beneficiary areas were further expanded, covering 392 million rural residents. Rural products have also expanded to color TV sets, washing machines outside refrigerators, mobile phones and other categories.
Huo, chairman of China Household Electrical Appliances Association, predicts that the expanded "Home Appliances to the Countryside" project will drive the annual market demand of rural home appliances and services of 46.524 billion yuan, "which will undoubtedly bring new opportunities to home appliance enterprises."
Domestic home appliance enterprises actively bid and achieved fruitful results. Judging from the winning bid, almost all the dominant enterprises in the industry were successfully selected. Haier won the bid in the fields of refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and mobile phones. The winning models are 10, 15, 15 and 10 respectively. Konka I * * * won the bid for 14 color TV,1/refrigerator,1/mobile phone, 10 freezer; Hisense Group * * * won the bid for 75 products such as TV, refrigerator and mobile phone; 77 refrigerators, freezers and washing machines from Midea, Little Swan, Rongshida and Xueer are also the winning series.
Adjust and explore emerging markets
"The decline in the European and American markets is a foregone conclusion, and the demand in emerging markets is still growing rapidly." Yu, executive vice president of Galanz Group, said. It is understood that the sales volume of Galanz microwave ovens reached 25 million units in 2007, accounting for 70% of the total export volume. Up to now, Galanz's exports to the United States have only increased by 18%, while those in other markets have increased by 50%.
On June 5438+065438+1October 17, 2008, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued an announcement to increase the tax rebate rate of household appliances from 13% to 14%. The increase of tax rebate rate has boosted the confidence of enterprises to a certain extent. In the case that the export orders of home appliances will continue to decrease next year, enterprises have adjusted their export strategies, strengthened internal management, and regarded emerging markets as growth points.
According to Kuang Yubin, overseas vice president of Skyworth Group, even in the context of the decline in color TV exports, Skyworth expects the export volume to increase by 80%-90% this year. Skyworth's success benefits from the adjustment of export strategy. A year ago, Skyworth believed that it did not have obvious competitive advantages in the European and American markets in the short term, but focused on developing countries with relatively stable market capacity and large growth space. This enabled Skyworth to avoid the decline in exports during the global financial crisis and maintain a large growth through major customers.
Every major change in the economic situation will bring about the upgrading of the industry and the adjustment or reshuffle of the industrial structure. China enterprises have stronger anti-risk ability than foreign-funded enterprises. With the continuous introduction of national macro-control measures, enterprises can turn challenges into opportunities if they can seize opportunities. Lu Jianbo believes that as a fully competitive home appliance industry, it is fully capable of getting out of the current market predicament and welcoming better development opportunities.