Whether you can get in or not, vive is advanced and has invested for so many years. To tell the truth, it is really the first time to see such a "perfect" track.
Being in the medical industry, I know how big the market space of this industry is and it is endless. Now, drugs and instruments are all faced with centralized procurement, but the varieties targeted by centralized procurement are the classic prisoner's dilemma, and the low price without a bottom line makes the varieties of centralized procurement track "garbage".
Really, it's no exaggeration to say garbage, just like coronary stents. According to Value Firm, the medical insurance bureau should mean to reduce from 10000 to 2000 or 3000, and enterprises should also make some money. Except for the intermediate link, hello everyone, hello everyone.
However, what the medical insurance bureau didn't expect was that the game of collective mining was tantamount to creating a prisoner's dilemma. In the enterprise, there is only one way to go, so the price is reduced to the ankle.
You don't have to look at all the collected varieties in the future. Who benefits, who reverses, who wins, I'm sorry, it's too painstaking and too difficult. This kind of thing, this kind of money, is reserved for smart people to earn. The value company is certain.
Then, the third-party detection is the measurement in the measurement.
Medical insurance should be charged. Well, a third-party inspection can save money on medical insurance. Our country has advocated it for 800 years, but the progress was slow before. It doesn't matter. COVID-19 forced many previously uncooperative hospitals to cooperate with third-party inspections. After the cooperation, it will be a large-scale real fragrance scene, which will be visible to the naked eye in the future. The cooperation between the two sides will increase and be mutually beneficial.
As far as hospitals are concerned, many inspection projects can earn a sum of money by outsourcing without spending money in person; For patients, because the same test samples are more, the total cost can be lower than that of hospitals. The only drawback is that you have to pay your own expenses, but it is definitely a good thing for those who have commercial insurance or have the ability to afford it. In the future, if you can accept your own expenses, you can enjoy good service and medical care. If you can't accept your own expenses, medical insurance will guarantee your basic medical care. As far as medical insurance is concerned, this TM doesn't cost me money, which is a great good thing!
In particular, the implementation of DRGs and the start of third-party inspection have entered the countdown. For those who are not clear about DRGs, please read this article: Better than technology and new energy vehicles, ICL, one of the best tracks in the future 10.
In addition to the rapid development, the unique advantage of this industry lies in oligopoly. It is clearly stated in the prospectus of Jinyu Medical that the third-party medical inspection market in China may continue to present an oligopoly pattern in the future, considering the requirements for inspection quality and operational efficiency of third-party medical inspection.
Just like the title of the last article: one of the best tracks, the pattern is very clear.
At present, Value Firm has written many articles about the industry leader Jinyu Medicine, and everyone has basically accepted it. As the second child in the industry, many people still have doubts, so today, let's consider Dean again.
In fact, many institutions and big V in the market have made a simple comparison between Dean and Jin Yu in various financial indicators, thus drawing the conclusion that Dean is not as good as Jin Yu, and so hastily drawing the conclusion that Value Firm does not approve.
If you want to know why Dean's financial situation is so bad, you must go back to his past.
Dean started as an agent of Roche Diagnostics, which is different from Jin Yu's early career as a third-party laboratory. Backed by Roche, in fact, De 'an, as an agent, has been doing well, but only being a small agent will definitely have no future. Seeing the opportunity of a third-party laboratory, Dean began to March downstream.
At the beginning, Dean's March was also steady. Until 20 15, the company was in a high-speed growth period and its financial situation was very good. One obvious point is that the accounts receivable that the dean hates the most began to deteriorate from 20 15, and then the "financial" gap with Jinyu Medicine widened.
Let's go back to 20 15 and see what happened.
Actually, Dean's boss is a super awesome person. After a detailed analysis of the rise of overseas LabGrop and Quest tripartite laboratories, Mr. Chen deeply realized that third-party diagnosis is an oligopoly market, and the nature of the industry determines that latecomers don't even have to drink soup.
But it is very different from many private clinics and hospitals abroad. The public hospitals in China are so strong that every public hospital has the impulse to make the laboratory bigger and stronger. Originally, in the early years, the state basically reserved private hospitals in order to let them fly for a while, but the nature of profit-seeking capital made Putian hospitals emerge one after another. All these have strengthened the country's determination to make public hospitals bigger and stronger.
Therefore, the company does not intend to simply do third-party testing outsourcing, but wants to do a new format of the whole industry chain.
In other words, there are both agents and simple outsourcing, as well as the mode of building laboratories in cooperation with hospitals to seize the commanding heights of the industry.
The idea is good, but it is difficult to realize. Therefore, the company made three arrangements:
First of all, the company invested and integrated domestic high-quality IVD product agents (Roche agents are basically selected and the company knows them). Through the acquisition of these dealers, the company actually opened up the channels to the laboratory departments of local top three hospitals and realized the omni-channel layout of hospitals at all levels in the province.
Secondly, the company has accelerated the national layout of third-party laboratories.
Third, start to cooperate with hospitals to build laboratories.
Each of the above items burned a lot of money, so Dean's balance sheet began to deteriorate rapidly. The market once thought the company was crazy. This stock price is not a fracture, but a shot at death.
It can be said that the company broke the comfort zone and changed the future through the rapid deterioration of its balance sheet for three years.
Since 20 19, the company's debt situation began to improve. At present, the leverage of the company's major shareholders has been reduced.
At the conference call of the third quarterly report this year, the company itself said: Mr. Chen has no other profession except the dean, and Mr. Chen promised to borrow money to participate in the fixed increase on 15. The share price of 18 has fallen too much, which has caused great pressure. The high pledge rate of 18 has also been criticized by the supervision, so we will consider reducing the financial leverage pressure of Mr. Chen later, which should be regarded as a relatively safe level at present.
This madness has really paid off, and this COVID-19 is a godsend. Due to the perfect layout of national laboratories and the integration of industrial chain, the company's COVID-19 detection efficiency is very high. During this period, the company's profits rose sharply, although the company's debt situation deteriorated further according to the third quarterly report (because a large number of COVID-19 accounts receivable were settled by the end of the year, not only Dean went to see Jintian, but also others).
Not surprisingly, in the 2020 annual report, Dean's debt performance will improve very quickly. An obvious signal is that the cash flow has improved very quickly in the past two years.
The company itself also said in the conference call in the third quarter of this year: the debt is mainly brought by the previous acquisition channels, and it will definitely decline gradually in the future, and the degree of decline depends on the gradual replenishment of working capital.
So, this time, COVID-19 was a godsend company, which made the company make a fortune and greatly reduced the company's debt.
Remember what the value company said about American health before? At that time, we said that the business of Meinian was a bit like that of Xiaosan. Because of competing with public hospitals for business, physical examination is a piece of fat that every hospital will not give up, so the customers of Meinian are basically private enterprises.
But Dean and Jin Yu are different. They win by cooperating with hospitals, especially the dean, and taking the path of industrial chain+platform.
According to the company's own plan, by 2024, the company will achieve 60% of the company's service sector (that is, laboratory income), the products it represents will drop from 64% to 30%, and the self-produced products will reach 10%.
Once this goal is achieved, it means that Dean will surpass Golden Corner in an all-round way. At present, this goal is not impossible, because after several years of catching up, Dean has one more ICL laboratory than Jin Yu. As of the third quarter of this year, Dean has 38 laboratories (excluding the CRO laboratory in cooperation with Tiger), of which 29 have achieved profitability.
In the same period, Jinyu 1 * * has 37 laboratories, of which 3 1 is profitable.
Then by the end of this year, more than 30 dean companies are likely to make profits, and by 202 1, all of them will make profits with high probability. Once Dean realizes all the profits and changes the current mode of "several big cars pulling small cars", under the advantage of Dean's integration, the profits may be more flexible than Jinyu's.
In fact, both Dean and Yujin are excellent in the eyes of value companies, but they are completely different. From now on, we can't say who is absolutely right.
We believe that both of them are in the huge track of the tripartite laboratory, and the industry competition pattern is clear. The only uncertainty is who will be the boss. So you can bet on both.
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Finally, today is 65438+February 2, which is the agreed date. I will collect some contributions from my friends every month.
The market has picked up recently. I hope all my friends can get an award. It's an encouragement to look at individuals. We will try our best to accompany you. The harder we work, the better.
Since there are many new friends here, I'd like to explain the collection system of manuscript fees for value firms.
It is very difficult to study individual stocks in depth. Not only need to buy a lot of data, but also need to deeply analyze and think about the long-term logic of individual stocks and industries. So many people will pay cash in small circles and other ways.
But we really don't want to charge now. We just hope that you can get paid on the 2nd of every month, which is similar to spending more than ten dollars to subscribe to a monthly magazine.
First of all, it can bring us some income. After all, we have also paid a lot of labor, just like everyone wants to get paid when they work. Secondly, since everyone has subscribed to the monthly magazine, we have the motivation and obligation to do better, which will motivate us to work harder and form our favorite reader relationship.
Although there is no special right to reward, as mentioned above, if we reward, we will regard it as a one-month subscription, and we will give priority to his opinions or subjects we want to know.
As for the amount of money, it depends entirely on your own mind. You feel that it helps you a lot, and your hands are loose. We are very grateful for this. We also appreciate the popularity of money, so we should make friends.
Please. Thank you!