First, August opened the door, a correct understanding of the rhythm of new energy and food and beverage!
1, on the rhythm of the plate: new energy is next to accelerate upward to catch up with the top, if it is a low chip or halfway on the car, to escape the top of the time just need to remember a principle, from the top to the bottom of the cut 20 points, which means that the adjustment is formally established to do without hesitation to lock in the profits or stop-loss go. Even if it is a very low level of chips to go.
2, because the new energy has been fried out of the big bubble, two leading overdraft after the year's performance, valuation has reached more than 70 times, which means that once the adjustment is generated, the stock price cut is standard. See the decline of the white wine plate, tell you, new energy automobile if adjusted up, the decline will be 1.5 times or even to twice the white wine plate, so their balance sheet and white wine is incomparable.
3, the chip plate is now a nest of snakes and rats, no matter good company or garbage stocks are frying, this plate of good company balance sheet are very good. In particular, many of the balance sheet ratios of the KIC are less than 10%, the most beautiful balance sheet of the whole A-share is in this plate, their balance sheets are even better than those of the food and beverage, is the most expensive plate of the whole A-share valuation. It can be seen that the cleaner the balance sheet, the higher the valuation, this logic is not wrong.
4, the logic of speculation is the performance surge, the fundamental reason for the price increase is the reason for the epidemic in Taiwan and Malaysia chip company capacity release does not come out, means that the surge in prices is short-term, and can not form a long-term upward trend. You have to correctly distinguish what is the long-term upward trend of the company? What is the short-term swing trend of the company? The vast majority of chip companies are low-end manufacturing products, the current market has gone halfway, the next should be tossed after the second half of the market. Only the future three-quarter performance exceeded expectations and the annual report exceeded expectations of the company to continue the upward space. The trend will become more and more polarized, feel free to enjoy the bubble, it is estimated that two months after the top! High valuation adjustment up, of course, is also the sky is falling, then also remember to see the good.
5, the medical sector has also been adjusted in the past few days, the purpose of the adjustment is to prepare for the second half of the market, here after the adjustment will be up faster, their track is not what the new energy can be compared. Flawless balance sheet, ultra-high-speed earnings growth, a far-reaching track, of course, will also speculate on the bubble, this bubble will peak at what time? It's about two months, but you won't see the end of it for many years to come!
6, food and beverage plate before the white wine adjustment, accurately food and beverage plate from the second half of last year has begun to adjust, with the rhythm of the white wine plate is completely different, food and beverage mention no one mentioned, in fact, which plate adjustment is not like this? This is right, means that the bottoming into the end. This track is only a few leading companies are playing, no other later, emphasizing the power of the brand.
7, liquor plate has fallen out of value, fell out of value, there is still a "mention are not willing to mention" process, does not mean that fell out of value will immediately rise. This point we have to have a deep understanding, there is a repeated grinding process, the probability of medical unicorns can be picked up after the rhythm of liquor. I speak clearly no?
Second, about Maotai half-yearly report of dry goods to:
1, Maotai early in the year the plan is to improve the series of wine sales, to improve corporate profits. Moutai wine sales rose 11.15%, selling expenses rose 10.94%, we expect the series of wine can significantly improve, from the current point of view completely below expectations.
2, Moutai's series of wine sales have not improved over the years, some of the series of wine is a loss, is entirely dependent on the big single product Flying Sky. The situation has improved from the current point of view, but it has not become an explosive growth point.
3, the entire liquor industry is in full swing, why Maotai's series of wine performance is not outstanding, and the effort is not small? What is the logic behind this? Moutai's main line of products dealers must make payments in advance, and must try to pull all the strings to get a quota. Salespeople have long been in a superior position, even looking down on all dealers.
But want to sell a series of wine, must lower posture, and even sell Flying Sky to ride the series of wine, sales posture and sales mentality is completely different, relative to other brands of wine in the division of the tiger and wolf, there is still a gap. Be accustomed to do the master to come to be a slave? How do you think this sales force to adjust? This is the biggest irreconcilable contradiction within Maotai!
Coupled with the fact that the quality of Maotai's series of wine is not recognized by the market, this is the series of wine did not explode as expected, become Maotai's profit growth point of the root cause.
4, for Maotai, the biggest problem is that if the quality of the series of wine is made too high, it will challenge the status of Flying Sky. If the quality of the series of wine is lower than Feitian, and this scale is very difficult to grasp. A little bit below the Flying Dutchman will affect the status of the Flying Dutchman, the quality is too much below the Flying Dutchman, and what is the difference with other brands of wine?
Whether you are doing a series of wines or doing the Flying Dutchman, the base wine is essentially the same, only the method of modulation is different. Originally in short supply, the same base wine why not make Flying Sky instead of making low-end series of wine? As an internal motivation is not high.
5, Maotai performance, round and round and back to the old way, since ancient times, Hua Shan a road that is to raise prices, from the point of view of raising prices, this road is difficult to go through, and very difficult to get it wrong, the whole industry on the collapse.
Three, why did Li Lu in this place to reduce BYD?
1, how to see the prospects of new energy vehicles? There is no statistics on the new production capacity of the major car manufacturers? Tell you, the annual output will increase by 80 million units. And then calculate the world's annual car sales volume is how big? The highest sales record in the history of the Chinese market should be 19 million units per year, over the past few years, the average annual sales of more than 10 million units; the world's second-largest car sales market is the United States, should be no more than 10 million; the world's third-largest automobile market is the European Union, their own go to look up the data of the annual sales.
2. How many years is the process of forming such a huge capacity? It's about 2-3 years, and this year is already the second year. Guess, how to amortize such a large input? Such a large construction in progress, how much profit will erode the enterprise in the next few years? This is not the most important, if the capacity of the enterprise in order to survive, you guess what will do?
Four, on the SMIC engineers dislike analysts photoresist event
-- this melon to everyone to run through:
1, now technology stocks to market, a bunch of melons! The masses, a bunch of liars, fish and dragons mixed together to form a new jianghu. A variety of concepts, a variety of stories a fried, what garbage are chicken dogs flying sky, remember a few years ago, technology stock speculation? GEM companies below 30 billion, the chairman of the board are embarrassed to say that they are technology companies, the final result is how? The vast majority of the storytelling garbage company ashes, collapse.
2, the real situation is how? Inside a chip group, SMIC engineers dislike analysts, to the effect that: do not blind bragging, the production out of the things no one dares to take SMIC to use a little ....... No one dares to give SMIC a chance to use the products made by the company, which claimed to have broken the monopoly of foreigners and the technology monopoly of the Japanese.
3, you see this is very clear, what is the purpose of bragging? The cost of the country ah, cheating the country's money. After cheating the country's money, and then by the way the analysts who do not understand the line, or collusion, speculation high stock prices, and then high cuts run chant. Then again, or in collaboration, under the guise of market value management management, you know!
4, look at the North China Chuang delivery of chip equipment, 6 billion last year, this year's data probability of more than 15 billion, next year probability of 20 billion, that is to say, a company within three years to make 40 billion of equipment, which is only a company's products. Input-output ratio of a minimum of 1:100 companies to make money, right? That is to say, the next two years, there will be 4 trillion chip capacity into production, do not you think this is an extremely scary thing? I once told everyone that one day the Chinese people do chip must be weighed by the pound.
5, this period of time to look at the chip rose well these companies, in addition to the super leading small table. Either to do LED chips, or not is to do other chips, their **** the same characteristics are? Low-end nothing technical content. No technical content of the company blind speculation, the final result must be a chicken feather! Remember, where the chip NAV is less than 30% of the company, basically only short-term investment opportunities, there is no big wave or long-term investment value!
V. What is the most basic logic of investment?
1, super track performance ascending wave of white horse every big adjustment is Mr. Market in the delivery of money;
3, when the performance of the main ascending wave of white horse, crying on the ground, and even look at no one to see, even if it is a significant price increase this good, no one to see, just ushered in a super buy point. For example, three months ago the chip; for example, now mention no one mentioned food and beverage super white horse, pharmaceutical white horse. This is the stock market cycle! Keep in mind, with the super track performance of the main rise of the white horse **** growth, is the only right way to invest!
Six, operating point of view:
1, the current "SSE 50" point 3082, out of range value is not large, 15-minute level of the triple bottom structure, but 30-minute level of the structure of the strength of the structure is still not strong, do not need to be too panicked, has entered the bottoming state. Entered the bottoming state. SSE 50 from the high down has fallen more than 1000 points, the current price-earnings ratio of less than 10 times, calm!
2, some medical unicorns in the delivery of money; engineering machinery plate soared; food and beverage big counterattack, this place is the big cycle of the super gold pit, do not people cloud, to my prevail, people?
4, food and beverage up hi, behind the good days long miles. How many pounds have you earned today?