How is the world economy developing under the epidemic and economic downturn? What is the impact on the rubber tire industry? When will the rubber tire industry be able to recover quickly? 16 bigwigs brought wonderful speeches for everyone.
How is the macro economy after the epidemic?
In today's meeting, China's well-known economist, the State Council special researcher Chen Quansheng old Mr. Chen's speech was particularly enthusiastic response, Mr. Chen in the 70-minute time, for us to describe in detail since the epidemic China's economic development.
China's economic development has been severely affected by the epidemic.On April 17, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 was -6.8%, 12.9% lower than at the end of 2019.
Chinese economic development has been severely affected by the epidemic.
In the face of the epidemic spreading around the world, the world's economic development has also been seriously affected, according to the United Nations on May 13 predicted that the world economy in 2020 will shrink by 3.2%. Cumulative output losses in 2020 and 2021 are expected to be nearly $8.5 trillion. The U.N. predicts that outbreak control will depend not only on public ****health measures, but also on the ability of countries to protect jobs and incomes, especially for the most vulnerable members of society.
The World Trade Organization's optimistic forecast for global GDP this year and next sees the world shrinking 2.5 percent in 2020 and growing 7.4 percent in 2021. Pessimistic 8.8 percent contraction in 2020 and 5.9 percent growth in 2021.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), on the other hand, sees the global economy contracting by a sharp 3 percent in 2020. growth in Asia will come to a standstill in 2020.
In terms of cumulative growth in the value and production of retail sales of automotive goods, production of automobiles in 2020 slumped 45.8 percent in February, 44.6 percent in March and 32.3 percent in April. Retail sales of goods in the automotive category slipped 37 percent in February, 30.3 percent in March and 22.6 percent in April.
At present, although the production of the automobile industry has rebounded, but the important thing is that the footsteps of the growth of the level of automobile consumption is still lagging behind, the country to implement the funding policy is expected to really benefit the enterprise, produce effective promotion.
Tire Market Forecast 2020
Marco Spinetto, Global Head of R&D Knowledge Management and Regulation at Pirelli Group, commented on the tire industry in Europe.
He said that while European tire factories have opened, it is not clear when the supply chain will be smooth around the world.
The epidemic has also had an impact on the psyche of European consumers, for whom buying a car is no longer the preferred goal.
The quarantine policy has also led to a change in shopping habits, with a clear trend toward online shopping and a shift in logistics from long-distance to short-distance.
In early April, more than 90% of the European tire industry stopped production, and the European industry is taking active measures to deal with this crisis.
Pirelli is also taking active measures to cope with the crisis, such as donations of goods and materials to medical equipment, as well as providing assistance to suppliers and agents to help them get through the difficult times.
Faced with the economic situation in 2020, Pirelli cautiously predicts that global GDP will decline by about 2.8% in 2020, and the entire global automotive tire market is expected to decline by about 19%.
Original tires are expected to decline by about 21% due to the decline in automotive production and sales, and the global replacement tire channel is expected to decline by about 18% due to the segregated travel restriction policies of various countries.
In response, Pirelli has also taken a series of measures to strengthen profitability.
Profound interpretation of economic and industrial trends
The second session invited Wang Fenghai, deputy secretary of the Party committee and general manager of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, to deliver a conference speech. Wang Fenghai said, "twenty years of wind and rain, the original heart does not change the Chinese dream", as an important financial infrastructure, the SFE has always adhered to the real economy services as its own responsibility, the epidemic also specially exempted all futures varieties such as natural rubber and other delivery charges, the future will continue to use its own advantages to help the rubber tire enterprises to reasonably The future will continue to use its advantages to help rubber tire enterprises rationally use futures tools to avoid the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.
Rajiv Budhraja, Secretary General of the Indian Automotive Tire Manufacturers' Association, shared with the participants the "Outlook of the Indian Automotive and Tire Industry and the Challenges and Opportunities of the Epidemic", which depicted the development of the Indian automotive tire industry, its current status, and the expectation of its recovery with comprehensive and wonderful data.
He believes that India's consumption orientation and development winds have changed, but the essence of consumer power and policy-driven is still the key to industrial recovery, and expects India's automotive and tire industry will achieve rapid recovery in 2022, and India's tire industry will remain strong and competitive.
Gao Yanchen, chairman of Qingdao Wanlong Hi-Tech Group Co., Ltd, used a report full of science and technology to depict in detail the framing model of a tire smart factory in the era of 5G for the attendees, as well as the three-stage vision of realizing a parallel smart factory, pointing out that intelligent and information-based renovation is considered to be investing in the future, and that the integration with 5G technology can organically solve the deficiencies still existing in the tire manufacturing and Rapidly improve the level of intelligence in the industry.
Roxanna B. Petrovic, Program Director of the International Synthetic Rubber Producers Association, opened the second half of today's session with a detailed analysis of the production capacity of the eight major synthetic rubber grades, as well as supply and demand on a global scale. She also emphasized that the medical industry has become an important support for the synthetic rubber industry, and after the economy recovers, the demand for synthetic rubber in the electric vehicle industry will be worthwhile for companies to pay attention to.
Liang Aimin, president of China Synthetic Rubber Industry Association, delivered a speech titled "China's Synthetic Rubber Market Quotations and Prospects", pointing out that at present, China's 50 synthetic rubber producers have formed a total capacity of 6.05 million tons per annum, which accounts for 30% of the global market, and the various types of products also have their own competitive advantages. Advantages, in the future, quality and inexpensive high-end products will be the trend, become China's synthetic rubber industry's main direction of attack, but also wish China's SR industry can be among the world's first-class as soon as possible.
As the blood of rubber products manufacturing, natural rubber prices, supply and demand, etc. are widely concerned about the industry, so during this epidemic and after the epidemic, in order to allow industry players to better understand the development of the natural rubber market, supply and demand and prices, as well as what new trends will emerge, the new industry, the annual meeting specially invited two big names in the natural rubber industry to do a share.
Jom Jacob, senior analyst of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, said in his speech that in the first quarter of this year, China and the world's consumption of natural rubber fell by 34%, 18.9%, and it is expected that the annual consumption will be about 6% lower. Influenced by the consumption side, the current price of natural rubber is still in a downward trend, the annual production is also expected to be reduced by 4.7%.
He concluded that although the economy is now showing a trend of recovery, the effect of economic stimulus policies adopted by governments and the progress of research and development of new vaccines are still the determining factors for the natural rubber industry to flourish this year.
Huang Da, investment director of AsiaHuiDa Financial Advisors Pte Ltd, predicted that the current global economy is far from coming out of recession, and the third quarter still has a chance to usher in a further depression. Natural rubber prices are likely to continue to show weakness this year, with prices fluctuating between $1/kg and $1.2/kg throughout the year, with no chance of a rise until the end of 2021.
Hu Hui, Senior Manager of Commodity Department II of Shanghai Futures Exchange, as the grand finale of the meeting, introduced the "operation of the natural rubber derivatives market", as of the end of April, the cumulative turnover of the 20 rubber futures of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been close to 150 billion yuan, which has played a role in maintaining the high quality of raw materials for the industry, Efficient supply has played a force, and hope that more thoughtful enterprises can also participate in, to enhance their ability to rationally use futures tools, for the enterprise to seek greater benefits space.
Organizers of the June 5 meeting also invited seven industry leaders in tires, adhesive tapes, machinery molds and dealers to speak out for the industry, namely, Mr. Zhang Wei, director and deputy general manager of Shandong Haomai Science and Technology Co. Marco Spinetto, Deputy General Manager of Jihua Group Mr. Rong Sanyou, Chairman of Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co., Ltd. Mr. Shen Gengliang and General Manager of Guangdong Province Guangken Rubber Group Co.
Following the success of the first "2020 China Rubber Annual Conference", the meeting on June 5 still received great attention from the industry, the economic situation and industrial upgrading of the content of the participants triggered a wide range of discussions, the third live online will be officially opened on June 11, the theme of the meeting is The theme of the meeting is "Enterprise Management and Market Exploration", and the detailed topics and meeting flow will be announced later.
The conference has received special support from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the supporting units are Shuangxing Group Limited Company, Sheng'ao Chemical Technology Co. Ltd., Sailun Group Co., Ltd. and Beijing Guomao Tong Big Data Co., Ltd. etc. RubberTech China, the official cooperative exhibition of the conference, also contributed a lot to the live broadcast of the event.
This article comes from the authors of Automotive Home, and does not represent the views of Automotive Home.