Securities analysts and pharmaceutical industry insiders believe that in 2009, the pharmaceutical industry will maintain growth, but there are still some uncertainties, the growth rate of drug profits in 2009 or may slow down, pharmaceutical companies strategy and marketing model adjustment to bring greater uncertainty of earnings growth. It can be said that under the seemingly calm water, there are still unknown strong current in the surge.
When the real estate, automotive and other industries due to the global financial crisis struggling in the downturn channel, the domestic pharmaceutical industry in the eyes of many people is a "safe haven" for no more than two reasons - the domestic market, the characteristics of the rigid demand and the background of health care reform! The state investment is increasing.
Data show that in 2008, January to November, the pharmaceutical industry sales and profits maintained rapid growth. Among them, Chinese medicine and biopharmaceuticals 2 sub-industry sales growth is higher than the industry average, but by the global economy, chemical raw materials sub-sector sales growth is gradually declining.
At the beginning of the New Year, the major securities companies have released the "2009 Pharmaceutical Industry Investment Strategy", analysts are more focused on the point of view is that the pharmaceutical industry is expected to maintain growth in 2009, there are many policy benefits, while facing the negative impact of the economic downturn, and in addition, the uncertainty of the factors will be around the industry! Growth.
Safety island in the financial tsunami
By the global economic downturn, many of China's export-oriented industries have felt a cold front. Weakening foreign demand, fewer orders, and sliding prices have also affected the growth of the pharmaceutical sub-sector - chemical raw materials pharmaceutical industry, leading to a decline in industry exports. But overall, China's pharmaceutical industry is based on domestic consumption, chemical raw materials pharmaceutical exports decline, although it will affect the overall growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry in 2009, but because it accounts for the proportion of the whole industry is relatively small, will not constitute a major impact on the industry as a whole.
China International Capital Corporation 2009 strategy report shows that in 2001, "9?11" events and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the U.S. economic adjustment led to the stock market S&P index fell sharply, while the S&P health care index has remained relatively stable. In the global financial tsunami and economic downturn in 2008, the health care industry has become a "safe haven" for investors.
Wangcheng Securities analyst Wang Xi believes that the pharmaceutical industry is related to people's livelihood, and its special attributes make it a rigid demand. From the statistics can be seen, the main factors affecting the development of the pharmaceutical industry is the industrial policy and the level of development of the enterprise itself, the growth rate of the total output value of the pharmaceutical industry fluctuations, and the growth rate of the GDP has no obvious correlation, by the macro-economic impact is not large.
Before 2000, the domestic pharmaceutical industry backward level of development, the industry is highly competitive, the enterprise is many, small, scattered, chaotic, the industry growth trend is sluggish. 2000, with the technological advances and the development of medical and health care, the industry has entered into a faster growth period. 2006, by the drug price reductions, anti-commercial bribery, and other policy factors, the industry growth is once again subject to a greater challenge. 2007, by the relevant benefits and benefits of the pharmaceutical industry, the growth of the pharmaceutical industry is the main factors affecting the development of the pharmaceutical industry is the industrial policy, as well as enterprises themselves. In 2007, by the influence of relevant favorable policies, the pharmaceutical industry into the trough, there is a rebound inflection point.
Of course, as a component of the main body of the economy, the development of the pharmaceutical industry can not be completely detached from the changes in the economic environment. Wang Xi believes that China's large population, the public's health care needs a huge gap, year by year to improve the total cost of health input will support the rapid development of the industry. The total cost of health by the government health expenditure, social insurance expenditure and personal health expenditure of the three major components, the three major changes and GDP has a certain correlation.
The strong demand in the domestic pharmaceutical market in 2008, let us look forward to 2009 market outlook added some confidence. IMS (the world's largest pharmaceutical market consulting and research company) latest data show that in the first half of 2008, the domestic hospital market size reached 90.8 billion yuan, an increase of 27.7% year-on-year, a large increase. Among them, the scale of hospitals purchasing domestic drugs grew the fastest, reaching 30.3%, exceeding the growth rate of imported and joint venture drugs, driving the growth of the entire hospital drug market. In addition to the faster growth of the hospital market, the size of the third terminal drug market in rural areas and communities will also expand dramatically, which will drive the strong growth of the entire domestic pharmaceutical market.
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2008 clearly pointed out that "to maintain stable and rapid economic development" as the primary task of the economic work in 2009. Among them, the expansion of domestic demand as a fundamental way to maintain growth, and improve people's livelihood as the starting point and finishing point of maintaining growth. In the face of severe challenges from both home and abroad, China will increase its stimulus and support efforts to further strengthen its ability to withstand the impact of the international financial crisis and maintain stable and rapid economic development.
China's pharmaceutical industry sales revenue compounded by 18.8% during the 18 years from 1990 to 2008, and profits compounded by 21.7%. Analysts believe that historical data show that in 2009 the macroeconomic outlook is uncertain environment, the pharmaceutical industry will still have a clear growth, but the growth rate down or into a trend.
Market expansion in the context of health care reform
The boosting effect of the new health care reform is an important reason why the prospects of the pharmaceutical market are collectively favored by analysts.
October 2008, the relevant departments of the state announced the new health care reform program, and public consultation, which has aroused widespread concern in the community. In the country to determine the 2009 economic work in five tasks, especially mentioned to "accelerate the improvement of urban and rural social security system, and actively promote the reform of the medical and health system".
Specifically, it is necessary to expand the coverage of basic pension insurance for urban workers, basic medical insurance and basic medical insurance for urban residents, study and launch a nationally standardized approach to the transfer of social insurance relationships, actively carry out pilot rural social pension insurance, and formulate pension insurance for rural migrant workers. It is also actively promoting reform of the medical and health system.
Analysts at China Investment Corporation (CIC) said the government's investment in healthcare has shown clear signs of increasing in the past two years. in 2007, the nation's fiscal spending on healthcare reached 197.4 billion yuan, up 50.7 percent year-on-year, and the growth in the January-September period of 2008 also reached 35.8 percent.
Yu Mingde, executive vice president of the China Association of Pharmaceutical Enterprises Management, said the introduction of the new healthcare reform program means that the government will increase its investment in healthcare security and build a basic healthcare system covering urban and rural residents.
It is believed that the increase in medical and health care investment on the pull of pharmaceutical consumption is mainly reflected in the consumption of drugs, planned vaccine purchases, the purchase of medical equipment and other aspects. Among them, the construction of the medical security system is the most important of the various measures of health care reform, is listed in the first health care reform, therefore, the growth in the scale of expenditure on medical security is a barometer of how much drug consumption. In the current several types of medical insurance, public medical expenditure will gradually shrink, urban workers' medical insurance, industrial injury insurance, maternity insurance expenditure are in the process of rapid growth, the new rural cooperative, urban residents' medical insurance and urban and rural assistance insurance market is in explosive growth, the overall scale of medical insurance has an accelerating trend of growth. Driven by the expanding coverage of the medical insurance system, the overall growth rate of medical insurance expenditure is above 20%, exceeding the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry.
In the context of the new health care reform, the government's increased investment in health, the expansion of health insurance coverage, economic growth, population aging, and many other factors, will pull the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical economy. "The expansion of the pharmaceutical market is basically a foregone conclusion." Yu Mingde said.