Summary of the model assessment and prediction
How to quantitatively evaluate the exploration of the development of regions with Zhejiang Province, a new issue. Sorting the role of the indicators in each region of Zhejiang Province, the size of the weight coefficient to describe the importance of a lot of trouble to do. Beginning from the case of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), through the establishment of a function model using MATLAB least squares polynomials fitted to the differences, so that Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Quzhou, Zhoushan, Taizhou, Lishui city development of the comprehensive evaluation of the scale coefficients to determine the rate of sustained growth, as well as through the modeling to predict the development of the region in the 2012, ranked 11. mike porter competitiveness five forces analysis model, mike porter's model variables, the title of the actual variables,
Comprehensive hierarchical analysis and consistency test, and finally the evaluation model of the regional economic competitiveness in wenzhou
BR /> Keywords: least squares consistency test
A suitable scaling coefficient Five Forces model Mike Porter level difference, the problem is re-listed
Reform and opening up has formed a method in the Wenzhou region of private economy, market economy, based on the "small commodities, big market" industrial agglomeration development model, referred to as the "Wenzhou model". "Wenzhou model" in the past 30 years, has made remarkable achievements, Wenzhou economic takeoff and prosperity. However, "Wenzhou model" in thirty years? However, the "Wenzhou model" in the 30 years of development process itself is also facing many "growing pains". Especially in recent years, Wenzhou's economic growth is relatively slow, why not? Membership economist, Wenzhou, Hangzhou, assistant dean professor Zhang Renshou County, said that economic growth is determined by a series of factors, with other areas of the province, Wenzhou's natural resources, geographic conditions and economic base, and therefore do not have any advantage over the past rapid economic growth is mainly by the first advance market-oriented reforms, the great development of private enterprises. When the surrounding institutional environment tends to homogenize, the lack of Wenzhou "old base" and the requirements of economic globalization will inevitably bring a series of new "trouble". Land shortage pain, followed by the pain of location disadvantage, and industrial structure, foreign investment is difficult to enumerate the pain of pain, this series of "pain" has become the new bottleneck of Wenzhou's economic development. Form data to study the following issues: in recent years (e.g., 2005 to 2008 time span can be longer) quantitative evaluation of the economic development of various regions of Zhejiang Province to identify the fastest-growing and slowest-growing regions ranked Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou City, economic development. (Relevant data can refer to the attached, but also can refer to other statistical information).
Prediction and analysis and 2012, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, economic development. Predict the economic development ranking of Wenzhou City in Zhejiang Province in 2012.
Problem analysis: analysis
(1) 1,2 quantitative evaluation, the economic development of the regions of Zhejiang Province, it is necessary to choose an indicator, we chose to use the gross regional product at the beginning of the GDP, because it can be a good reflection of the region's economic strength because of the title of the title of the and the forecast of the economic rankings in 2012, so we can envisage the establishment of the functional relationship between the region and the time and rate of growth and through the proportionality coefficient, so that the ranking can be determined is relatively easy.
(2) Analysis
Porter's Competitiveness Model, also known as Porter's Five Forces Analysis Model, is a model of five forces: the bargaining power of suppliers, the bargaining power of purchasers, the ability of potential competitors to enter in lieu of substituting for the ability of competitors in the industry. Changes in the different combinations of the five forces ultimately affect changes in the industry's profit potential. The five forces model has many different factors in a simple model to analyze the competitive landscape of the industry. The five forces model identifies the five main sources of competition, the bargaining power of suppliers and purchasers, the threat of potential entrants, the threat of substitutes, and, finally, the competition from current companies in the industry. The first step is to propose a feasible strategy to identify and evaluate the characteristics and importance of the different forces of the five forces due to the different industries and companies, as shown in the following figure:
Therefore, in the establishment of the Wenzhou regional competitiveness evaluation model of the five forces:
Bargaining power of suppliers? ? - Retail sales of consumer goods
The threat of substitution, potential entrants - The threat of investment in fixed assets products - Large-scale industrial output and sales
Existing competitors - Industrial sales above the size of ? Sales value
Bargaining power of buyers - Gross Regional Product
3 Modeling and Solving
(1) Establishment and solution of the problem 1,2 model
x represents the time (year), Y represents the function of GDP of the year model? Model, the establishment of which, call the MATLAB command mafit function, the use of least squares polynomial difference fit its specific method of operation is as follows:
% mafit.m.
function p = mafit (X, Y?, M)
% use:
% polynomial fit format, P = mafit (X, Y?, M ), X, ? data vector, m is the polynomial fit, and p returns the decreasing coefficients of the polynomial
Short format;
A = 0 (M +1, M +1);
i = 0 when: M
A (I +1, J +1) = SUM (ten ^ (+ J));
End of
B?(J = 0: M I +1) = SUM (ten ^ I * Y);
End
= A \ B';
P = fliplr (I');% The results of fitting using MATLAB are shown in the table below:
K-value, b-value expression for predicted values in 2012 (billions of U.S. dollars)
Hangzhou 566.54 -1132 821.2 Y = 566.54x 1132821.2 7057.3 in
Ningbo 451.5025 -1902652.97 Y = 451.5025x -1902652.97 5770.06
Wenzhou 255.3425 -510303.45?= 255.3425x 510,303.45 3445.66
Jiaxing 191.185 -382084.18 Y = 191.185x 382,?084.18 2580.04
HUZHOU Central 111.05 -2 219 53.51 Y-= 111.05x 221953.51 1479.09
SHAOXING 227.27 -4541 35.21 Y = 227.27x 454,135.21 3132.03
Jinhua 175.87 -3 514 65.1 Y = 175.87x 351,465.1 2385.34
Quzhou 49.07 -98052.52 Y-= 49.07x-98052.52 676.32
Zhoushan 69.545 -139156.14 Y = 69.545x 139,156.14 768.4
Taizhou 197.85 -3953 57.69?= 197.85x 395357.69 2776.87
Lishui 60.22 - 120416.28 Y = 60.22x-746.36
120,416.28 k value? In the table above the comparison shows that the development from fast to slow: Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Shaoxing, Taizhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua, Huzhou, Zhoushan, Lishui, Quzhou, the fastest-growing Hangzhou slowest Quzhou City, Wenzhou City, the economic development of Zhejiang Province, ranked third.
Cities of economic? Economic development of Zhejiang Province in 2012 see the table above, we can see that Wenzhou is still ranked third in the 2012 rankings, the economic development of cities in Zhejiang Province.
(2) model
Problem analysis to solve the problem, we have the real variables converted into factors Porter competitiveness model, the following is the establishment of hierarchical analysis model. The relationship between the factors, in accordance with the requirements of the municipal government's hierarchical analysis model will affect the competitiveness of the hierarchical structure chart between these factors:
Porter competitiveness model, only between the existing competitors, above-scale industrial sales? Sales output is positively correlated, negatively correlated with the study of the region's competitiveness to be considered comprehensively five factors, so you have to hierarchical analysis, through and problems at all levels 1,2 the same method of calculating the growth rate of K ranked factors, in particular the various regions, and so on, a variety of different factors ranked in the following table:
Gross regional product realization of consumer goods retail sales of goods production and industrial sales above designated size? sales value of fixed asset investment 1 1 9 1 1
Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 10 5 6
Jiaxing 6 7 2 4 3
Huzhou 8 8 5 8 9
Shaoshing 4 6 11 3 7
Jinhua 7 5 7 7 10
Quzhou 119 6 10 8
Zhoushan, Taizhou Sept. 11 April 11 5
5 4 8 6 4
Lishui 10 10 1 September 11
Ranking allocation, the proportion of higher factors allocated to higher can be seen, only the title of the factors and Mike Porter model of the five forces of one to one corresponds to the positive correlation between the existing competitors, the size of the above-scale industrial sales? Sales output value and above-scale industrial sales? Sales output value ranked higher, higher allocation, existing competitors, now allocate the given range (1-11), in accordance with the five forces allocation:
Buyers bargaining suppliers bargaining power threat of competitiveness, the sum of existing competitors, the threat of substitutes, potential entrants
Hangzhou 1 1 9 11 1 23
Ningbo 2 2 3 10 Feb. 19
Wenzhou 33 10 7 6 39 BR /> Jiaxing 6 7 2 8 March 26
Huzhou 8 8 5 4 9 34
Shaoxing 4 6 11 9 7 37
Jinhua 7 5 7 5 5 10 34
Quzhou 6 2 8 36 November 9
Zhoushan 4 1 5 30 September 11
Taizhou 5 4 8 6 April 27
Lishui 10 10 1 3 11 35
Scale divided by the impact of competitiveness, the size of the overall competitiveness of Zhejiang Province, according to the value of its use of the sum is based on the structure of the scale of comparison of 1-9:
Scale of the significance of the
70
2,4,6,8 times and the same as the CJ <
times than slightly stronger
than CI CJ CJ CJ impact is stronger than CJ significantly stronger
times stronger
CJ impact of the proportion of absolute strength than CI
times CJ impact of the two adjacent grades
/> Zhejiang Province, the city of Regional Competitiveness Scale results:
Cities Ningbo, Hangzhou Jiaxing, Taizhou, Zhoushan Jinhua, Huzhou, Lishui Quzhou Shaoxing, Wenzhou
Scale of 12334556 7 8 9
Total Zhejiang Province as a whole competitiveness, you can put the competitiveness of the 11 cities of Hangzhou, Wenzhou and the other regions, notated as W1, W2, W3, W4, W5, W6, W7, W8, W9, to do a comparison matrix Wireless/ WJ,
A= [1 1:2 1:3 1 hour 03 minutes 1 hour 04 1 hour 05 minutes 1 hour 05 minutes 1:6 1:8 1:1:07 minutes
2:1 1 2:03 2:03 minutes 2:04 2:05 2:05 2:06 2:07 2:08 2:09 minutes
3:1 3:2 1 3 3 4 3 hours 05 minutes 3 hours 05 minutes 3: 6 3 7 3:8 3:9
4:1 4:2 4:3 4:3 1 4:5 4:5 4:6 4:7 4:4:9
: 1 5:02 5:03 5:03 5:04 1 1 5:06 5:07 5:08 5:09
6:01 6 2 6:03 6:03 6:04 6:04 6:04 05 minutes 6:5 1 6:7 6:8 6:9
7:1 7:2 7:3 7:3 7:4 7:5 5 7:6 7:8 7:9 ...... /> 8:01 8 2 8:03 8:03 8:04 8:05 8:05 8:06 8:07 1 8:09
9:01:2 9:03 9:03 9 9:05 9:05 9:06 9:07 9 8 1]
These comparisons are clearly consistent competitiveness with competitiveness of the eleven cities in Zhejiang province weights, weight vector
> W = (1/45, 2/45, 3/45, 3/45, 4/45, 5/45, 5/45, 6/45, 7/45, 8 / 45,9 / 45) /> transpose.
IV 1,2 model inspection and analysis of the model
(1) inspection and analysis
In this process to establish a functional relationship, and does not take full advantage of the data provided, which is its accuracy does not achieve the desired results, coupled with the susceptibility to a variety of factors in the domestic and foreign GDP, as well as the occurrence of sudden changes in the model beyond the permitted range, then the role of the model will not be very large and may produce different results significantly different from the actual value. (2) Check and analyze the model
Consistency test, comparing the matrix consistency indicator
CI = (λ-N)/(N-1);
CR = CI / RI
Calculation of CR <0.1, consistency check by the above weight vector w.
In practice, however, in the actual application of the five forces model, it gets a lot of controversy. The more consistent view is that the model is more of a tool for theoretical thinking than a strategic tool for practical operation. The theory of the model is based on the following three assumptions: 1, the strategy can be understood on the basis of the entire industry, which is obviously difficult to do in reality; 2, the competitive relationship between the same industry, there is no cooperation between. Between enterprises, but in reality there are a variety of cooperative relationships, not necessarily a competitive relationship between you and me; 3, the size of the industry is fixed, only to win the opponent's share to occupy a larger share of resources and markets. Between enterprises, but the reality is often not to eat the opponent cake bigger industry, but with the opponent to get more resources and markets. At the same time, the market can improve the ability through continuous development and innovation. Porter's model of competition is effectively used in practice, and does not exist in reality, assuming that the operator will be allowed to do nothing, whether it is thousands of leads. Porter's competitive model contains three types of successful strategic thinking in the sense of the struggle of the five competitive forces, which are well known: total cost leadership strategy, differentiation strategy, and specific strategy.
References: MATLAB Fundamentals and Introduction to Programming (Second Edition)
Mathematical Modeling (Third Edition Lecture Xie Yuan Jinxing Ye Jun compiled)
Management