For a while, the market began to be filled with pessimistic statements, and the short-term impact may have triggered profit-taking, but after two years of trade wars and a historically rare global crash at the beginning of the year, the impact of this level of impact on the A-share market is actually limited.
On the contrary, it is likely to lead to a change in the wind direction again, the pre-holiday disk has already reacted, technology semiconductors will return to the main line of the market, mainly on the basis of three aspects.
First, according to the experience of the past two years or so, almost every time the United States against China's semiconductor industry to do things, plate stocks will rise in response.
For example, the significant escalation of the trade war in early August 2019 was the starting point of this round of semiconductor doubling.
Secondly, in the face of foreign rhetoric, our country directly and positively responded to the latest U.S. new semiconductor export regulations, quickly giving a strong response.
A number of national departments on April 27 jointly issued "network security review approach", and June 1 this year from the official implementation of all electronic products from the United States will be rigorous review, including Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Apple, Qualcomm, including communications, electricity, Internet companies.
The landing of the "Network Security Review Measures" will increase the difficulty of foreign products to enter the field of domestic critical information infrastructure, and the process of domestic substitution will be further accelerated, which means that compared to the beginning of the trade war in 2018, the current technological level of China's semiconductor industry has improved a lot.
Third, nearly 70% of the A-share semiconductor companies realized normal growth in the quarterly report (more than the pharmaceutical and consumer industries), and the performance of the leading companies is not only unaffected by the epidemic, but also significantly exceeded the market's expectations.
Weir shares: a quarterly net profit of 445 million yuan, an increase of 800% year-on-year, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 75%, is the world's third largest CIS manufacturers, CIS product line is rich.
Huatian Technology: quarterly net profit of 0.63 billion yuan, an increase of 276%, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 59%, is one of the leading sealing and testing, production capacity is ranked in the domestic professional packaging enterprises in the third place, the second quarter of the order is full.
Josun Micro: a quarterly net profit of 152 million yuan, an increase of 263%, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 72%, is a leading RF, Qualcomm chip supplier, the addition of four local manufacturing and testing plant.
ZiGuang State Micro: quarterly net profit of 190 million yuan, an increase of 183%, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 19%, focusing on the logic chip industry, is the domestic scarcity of high-end FPGA + Specialty IC leader.
Nanda Optoelectronics: quarterly net profit of 0.35 billion yuan, an increase of 123%, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 14%, is one of the leading photoresist field.
Shengbang shares: quarterly net profit of 0.3 billion yuan, up 91%, the company basically no overseas revenue, product unit price and gross margins both to improve, benefiting from the wave of domestic substitution.
Jiang Feng Electronics: quarterly net profit of 0.17 billion yuan, an increase of 56%, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 71% (gradually reduced), is the domestic sputtering target leader, import substitution space is huge, and very much benefited from domestic substitution.
Zhongying Electronics: quarterly net profit of 0.42 billion yuan, an increase of 30%, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 29%, is the domestic home appliance MCU master chip leader, benefited from the domestic substitution of the share of the obvious increase.
The above analysis is the short-term logic of the possible outbreak of the plate, in fact, the semiconductor industry has a strong long-term logic.
First, the construction and application of 5G will bring a huge increment to the semiconductor industry.
5G communication networks need to build base stations, equipment to launch signals, need a lot of semiconductors. 5G as the basis for the derivation of big data, smart cities, cloud computing, medical IT, government IT, driverless and other fashionable applications to run on computers and other terminals, need more semiconductor components.
Two, the space for domestic substitution is very large.
According to 2019 statistics, the self-sufficiency rate of semiconductors in China is only 10-15%. After the trade war began, these orders began to transfer to Europe, Japan and South Korea, and more domestic enterprises. Previously, the proportion of domestic production is only 10-15%, and now if we want to reach 30%, it is doubling the demand.
This year by the impact of the epidemic, the global semiconductor industry began to reshape the short-term European companies are difficult to start, Japan and South Korea also have part of the production capacity has been seriously affected, the domestic alternative instead ushered in the opportunity to accelerate the development.
Comprehensively, it seems that the semiconductor plate has a long and short-term logic, is likely to be one of the next operable direction.
At this stage, semiconductor companies can participate in the following three dimensions to select the standard.
First, the company's technology or products belong to the domestic first echelon, the vast majority of operating income from the domestic;
Second, a quarterly performance growth rate is good (preferably higher than the average level of the industry), and is expected to report performance can be sustained high growth;
Third, the stock of the previous period of time, by the funds of the enthusiastic pursuit of the technical stage of the bottoming solid.