The EAS-2020 China Automotive Marketing Salon was held in Anji, Zhejiang Province, on Sept. 4 with the theme of "Those who are coming can be pursued, and the road is auspicious".
Major General Jin Yinan, professor and director of the National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), said in his keynote speech, "Dilemma and Opportunity," that we are at a turning point in history: today, the process of globalization is in serious retrogression, the economies of many countries have slipped dramatically, the supply chain system has suffered a severe blow, racism is spreading, and the world has suffered serious shocks. No one can run away from these problems facing the world today.
Jin Yinan believes that at such an extraordinary moment, adhering to the process of globalization, insisting on reform and opening up, and insisting on opening the door is to move forward. Neither economic decoupling nor technological decoupling can inhibit the Chinese market, "Technology suppressing the market is a temporary victory, while the market creating its own technology is the ultimate victory."
Jin Yinan said that the clustering of the industrial chain is an important feature of the global industrial chain reconstruction in this epidemic; the epidemic is prompting the next stage of the industry to pay more attention to the digital infrastructure, cloud services, Internet of Things, remote connectivity and so on; the first step in the future to see who can carry the burden to survive; the second step to be able to survive in order to change. Survival is not the purpose, survival is to change, change is to win. We grasp the opportunity to survive, grasp the opportunity to change, is to grasp the opportunity to win.
The following is a transcript of the speech:
The title given to me today is "Finding Opportunities in Difficulties", and I changed the title to "Difficulties and Opportunities".
The first thing I said today when I spoke about dilemmas and opportunities is that some eras are destined to leave deep marks in history. 2020 is a very special era that has left deep marks not only on individuals, but also on the communities in which we all live, the countries in which we all live, and the relationships between countries.
We are at such a turning point in history, caught off guard
Early in 2020, initially there was talk of a U.S.-Iraq war, then a U.S.-China trade deal. As it turned out, the war expected at the beginning of the year didn't happen, and peace didn't come; what came was an uninvited guest - the New Crown Virus - and who invited it? Uninvited. Today there are 26 million confirmed cases and close to 900,000 deaths, and who among so many politicians, militarists, and economists around the world expected this situation at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020?
There's another quote "Major crises often become turning points in history." There is another phrase in this quote, "Historical turning points are often unintended," and we are at such a turning point in history that we were caught off guard, and no one was expecting it.
Today, the process of globalization has been seriously reversed, the economies of many countries have slipped dramatically, the supply chain system has suffered a serious blow, racism is spreading, and the world has suffered serious shocks. No one can run away from these problems facing the world today.
Who would have thought that the U.S. would have the highest number of people infected with the new coronavirus and the highest number of deaths in the world, and that the stock market would melt down four times in ten days. The United States has the best health care, the most advanced medical equipment, and today there are 6.3 million people diagnosed, more than 190,000 deaths, Trump said, "to be able to keep the number of deaths under 100,000 is a major victory," and we listened to the surprise.
Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeded 40 million, meaning that one in five Americans have lost their jobs, and Trump was furious, for him more than three years of economic achievements, six days, all destroyed, his most brilliant achievements is the economy, the stock market and employment, the end of March to the beginning of April this year, the Dow fell from 29,000 to more than 18,000, a drop of nearly 11,000 points.
We gave the best demonstration of resistance to the epidemic, we were on a closed-book exam and answered it well, yet we were asked by several countries to claim compensation. Why are they particularly keen to claim compensation from China? On the one hand, China has a historical tradition of paying compensation many times over, and on the other hand, the reality is that "patience is the most important thing, spend money to eliminate disasters". We have a saying that any problem that can be solved by money is not a problem. If these ways of thinking are grasped by foreign countries, it will never be a blessing for us, but a disaster. They see the Chinese as the best targets for robbery.
So at this year's postponed sessions, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made it very clear that these abusive complaints against China have no factual basis, no legal basis and no international precedent, and that they are outright "three-nos" products. The meaning of these words is very clear: if you want China to pay compensation, don't even think about any money. If we do not have such a resolute attitude, it will never work. From today's phenomenon, we can see that the new coronavirus pandemic has become a milestone event affecting the international landscape, and all the hideous faces - the true face of the country, the true face of individuals, the true face of enterprises - have been exposed at the onset of the catastrophe. How hideous the face is, you can't hide it even if you want to. The new coronavirus pandemic is not a revolutionary force to reset the order, but will accelerate the historical regression, closure, conservatism, blockage, globalization in a rare spiral, the deterioration of the relationship between the big powers, the global supply chain and the rules of the market are subject to deep skepticism, populism, anti-elite, anti-integration is becoming more and more trendy, the antagonism and segregation of different races, and the resurgence of all kinds of political, social, and racial prejudices. The political, social, and racial prejudices have resurfaced. History does not always move forward; it goes backward. The moment we are living in today is a moment of historical regression.
"Standing still is also advancing"
At such an extraordinary time I say, "Standing still is also advancing."
Even if we don't have any new policies or strategies, as long as we stick to the original globalization process, insist on reform and opening up, and insist on opening the door, we are moving forward. In such an extraordinary period, the International Monetary Fund Managing Director Georgieva said, "It is certain that in 2020 the global economy will decline sharply, more serious than the Great Depression, the world will have 170 countries with negative per capita income growth." Recently it was adjusted to 190 countries, which means that almost all countries have negative growth. We talk about difficulties here today, but who isn't? We're talking about problems here, but who doesn't have a ton of problems? China's problems are the lightest and slowest in comparison, and they are much more difficult than ours. We are the first to come out of the epidemic today, but others are still trapped in it.
China's economic and educational scale is becoming apparent?
Not only have we come out of it, but look at the size of China's economy today. We are talking about dilemma and opportunity today, the opportunity is pinned on China to firstly come out of the epidemic, and secondly the size of China's economy, and it is very difficult to shake this economic scale again. You look at the world's four major manufacturing countries, the black line is the United States, the world's manufacturing industry for a long time, 20%, and then fell; gray line is Japan, Japan in the mid-1990s once reached 20%, and then fell; the dotted line is Germany, the world for a long time in the world below 10%; look at the line of China, the world's manufacturing industry in 1980, 2.5-3% in 2008, China's rise in the red line and the United States declined in the black line intersected, and each accounted for 18% of the world's manufacturing industry. Each accounted for 18% of world manufacturing. In 2018 China's manufacturing accounted for 29.4% of the world's share, the world's first, in 2025 this share will go up to 40-45%. This is our foundation, the size of our economy.
Statistics from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) show that China is the only country in the world with all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification (UNIC), including 39 major categories, 191 intermediate categories, and 525 sub-categories, forming an option of categories and an independent and complete industrial system. This is an important foundation for us to move from difficulties to opportunities today. The United Nations Industrial Development Organization to do the world's major industrial countries, high-end manufacturing category comparison, the United States, Germany, China, Japan, the four countries, 14 high-end manufacturing industry comparison, look at Japan, Japan, there is no aero-engine, there is no civil airliner, there is no Internet, there is no communications equipment, there is no aerospace industry, there is no satellite when the line, and so on, this is Japan's lack of items. Then Germany, there is no aero-engine, no chips, no smart phones, no laptops, no Internet, no space industry, satellite navigation and so on. Then the United States, the United States does not have liquid crystal panels, no high-speed rail, no civilian ships, no lithium batteries. And finally China, with all 14 items. Our problem is that everything can be made, is the quality is not very good, this is the problem we must change, but there is no doubt that the scale of China's economy today to this extent, as the General Secretary said, China's economy is a sea, not a small pond, the wind and rain can be overthrown a small pond, but can not be overthrown the sea.
The scale is too large, you through what economic cuts, technological cuts to cut China's winning few, are not possible. So speak regardless of the trade war, epidemic or not, the impact on us, psychological impact is greater than the actual impact, the country is very oscillating, psychological oscillation, in fact, not so terrible, the size of China's economy leads to the Americans are very difficult to do, Trump's economic adviser asked U.S. companies to move out of China, the government will pay for all the costs of relocation, Trump asked Cook to move, Cook said, in the U.S., if you put a meeting of the mold engineers, probably A room can not fit, but in China, may be many soccer fields to accommodate so many people.
Supporting the size of China's economy is the size of China's education. in 2016 we have reached 5-6 million undergraduates studying science and engineering, now 6 million or more, the United States 568,000, and most of them are also Asians, Americans study finance, law, medicine, and bridges, ships, automobiles, steel, coal they do not study, this is the big problem that the United States exists today, it doesn't have enough engineers skilled workers. The Washington Post reports, "China has the largest number of science and engineering graduates in the world. from 2001-2014, China opened more than 1,800 new universities and produced 10 times as many science, technology engineering graduates as the United States"; and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports, "44 percent of Chinese college students major in natural science engineering, compared to 16 percent in the U.S. Considering that China's population is four times that of the U.S., this trend is frightening for the future." The U.S. isn't afraid of you now, it's afraid of you in the future. If this goes on, with a steady stream of Chinese engineers emerging in large numbers, what should the US do? The OECD International predicts that by 2025, China will have more engineers and skilled engineers than all OECD member countries combined. That's the size of our economy today and the size of education, which is gradually unfolding.
This is the global patent applications in 2018, from which you can see that the European Patent Office, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, plus Eastern Europe all together only declared 170,000 items in 2018, not as good as South Korea's 210,000; and South Korea is two-thirds of Japan; Japan's 310,000 items, which is half that of the United States half of the United States; the United States nearly 600,000 items, the United States is more than one-third of China. Of course, the quality of our patent applications has not yet gone up, the United States, Japan, the high quality of patents, our patent applications also have a quantitative to qualitative changes in the process, the process is accumulating, with quantitative changes in order to have qualitative changes. Our automobile production is now nearly 30 million units, we have accumulated enough quantitative change, the automotive industry should have arrived at the moment of qualitative change.
Now the Americans are speculating the most about economic decoupling, how to decouple? The Harvard University professor Allison, who proposed the "Husseed Trap", said: "China's economy is the backbone of the world economy, the United States can not let other countries and China's economy decoupled, the dominant part of China's economy is actually domestic consumption, they do not need to go to the West to ask for help. The West goes to China to invest because of the sophisticated supply chain, the good infrastructure and the huge market here, who would be foolish enough to give up that market." "Production can certainly be moved to countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, etc., the question is how big a market do they have to consume all those numerous products that are produced?" That's the problem, you move automobile companies to Vietnam, does Vietnam have that much car sales? It doesn't sell, I still have to come to China, which is the largest auto market in the world, and still have to come over and go through a tariff. This is a market choice, not a political temptation, but a market temptation.
The United States said well, then technology decoupling, high-tech decoupling. Google's former CEO, retired as the Pentagon's "Defense Innovation Board Chairman" Schmidt firmly opposed to technology decoupling, he said: "Once the global platform is dismantled, it can never be recovered. It's in the West's interest for China to benefit from a common platform for exchange, with Western values on every technology platform." How about you force the Chinese to have Chinese platforms without Western values? It's best to let the Chinese use second- and third-rate chips from the West forever, and buy American chips and support American chip R&D at high prices forever. Now the Chinese do their own chips, not only lead to a serious inventory buildup of U.S. chips, but also lead to a decline in the ability to follow up on R&D. So Schmidt concluded that "it is better to let the Chinese use Western chips, rather than making their own chips."
In this we see the power of the market. As Lang Xianping said, "technology is the biggest advantage of the United States, the market is China's biggest advantage, technology must be sold to the market, in order to obtain high profits, the loss of the market technology is bound to decline." "Chip is the highest level of mankind's most complex technology, the United States as the arrogance, China is the world's largest chip market, there is no market technology can develop technology, if the loss of technology, technology and then colorful flowers are bound to wither." "Technology to suppress the market is a temporary victory, and the market to create their own technology is the ultimate victory."
To form a big pattern with the domestic macro-cycle as the main body and the domestic and foreign double-cycle as the same promotion
That's what the General Secretary has said, that we have to give full play to the advantage of the domestic mega-market. We fully see the United States of America's technological advantages, but did not fully appreciate their own market advantages, the United States is now fully feel the advantages of China's market, China has become the world's largest market, that is, the General Secretary said that we have to gradually form a domestic cycle as the main body of the double cycle of domestic and foreign the same to promote the pattern of the pattern of the future is our pattern.
The clustering of the industrial chain is an important feature of the reconstruction of the global industrial chain in this epidemic. In this epidemic, from the beginning of this year to now, our two regions, -- Suzhou and Chongqing are growing, and the growth is relatively large, the key thanks to the clustering of the industrial chain. So Mayor Huang Qifan said: "China should seize the opportunity of some industries in Europe and the United States to stop, the recession, in the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle and other regions to focus on building a number of spatial highly concentrated, upstream and downstream close synergistic, supply chain intensive and efficient, the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars or even trillions of dollars of the emerging industry chain clusters",. As the core of the domestic great cycle and the starting point of the international great cycle. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing Twin Cities Economic Circle, together with the future Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Hefei Central Belt, become the core of the domestic macro-cycle and the starting point of the international macro-cycle.
The epidemic is driving the next phase of industry to place greater emphasis on digital infrastructure, cloud services, the Internet of Things, remote connectivity, and more. Our biggest advantage is good infrastructure, and China happens to be further accelerating its digital infrastructure in 5G R&D big data, IoT, and more. We can envision the next step in this infrastructure will be even better than other countries. The U.S. Pentagon assessed that "5G has the potential to transform China from a capital- and labor-intensive manufacturing economy, to an innovative economy." 5G we are at the forefront of the world. We talk about dilemmas and opportunities, about opportunities as intangible resources, and about seizing opportunities by grasping uncertainty. Most people do not like uncertainty, in fact, the real leaders like uncertainty, the real skillful leadership art, precisely the result of giving full play to uncertainty, how to effectively utilize uncertainty, precisely because of uncertainty, there are real opportunities in it.
Of course, we say that the future is like this, the first step who can carry, who can survive. 2020 big impact, a large number of enterprises collapsed, the service industry is too heavy blow, the catering industry, the tourism industry, the hotel industry, including the transportation industry and its heavy blow. I said the first step who can survive, the second step can survive in order to change, survival is not the purpose, survival is for the purpose of change, you die, all your eloquence is over, you have to survive, you can change, you become a change, the purpose of change is to win, must be a winner.
This is CNN statistics 2020 world economic increment, orange is 2020, all are negative growth, we see the United States -8%, the United Kingdom -10%, France -12%, Spain, Italy -13%, -14%, -15%, the only China bubbles a small red head this bubbles a small red head is very precious, people are in the negative, as long as you are in the positive is a major victory. The 2020 epidemic prompted the distance between China and the United States greatly closer, we feel that the development is hindered, other countries more backward, the distance is close. There is a "survivor takes all" theory in the international economic world, which is to see who can survive to the end. We grasp the opportunity to survive is to grasp the opportunity to change, to grasp the opportunity to win, and to accomplish this grasp in the midst of disaster.
To conclude with the words of Engels: "There is no great historical catastrophe that is not compensated for by historical progress". Whether you can enjoy this compensation depends on your vitality, your development, your creativity. Disasters are not of our choosing, but paths are blazed by us.
The last two sentences: the first: "Problems are the best guides to bring one out of a difficult situation."
The second: "Crisis is the best teacher to teach one to create."
That's all I have to say, thank you.