1, cross-strait normalization of trade, trade volume has a greater growth
If the Taiwan authorities can go back to the "one-China principle" or "nine-two-thirds ****", the cross-strait trade will have the following prospects for development. "1992*** knowledge", cross-strait economic and trade relations will appear
beneficial interaction situation. As two WTO members in one country, both sides of the Taiwan Strait will, based on WTO rules and the actual needs of economic development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, realize the optimal allocation of resources on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and drive the expansion of the scale of cross-strait trade and the improvement of the trade structure through the reasonable division of labor in cross-strait industries under the function of the law of the market. The cross-strait economy will experience a mutually beneficial ****growth situation. Based on the current political position of the Taiwan authorities, this ideal state will be the goal of long-term struggle between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
2, cross-strait trade is still in an abnormal state, the development of trade is more variable
Recently, Taiwan has carried out the "legislator" and "county mayor" election. After the election, the formation of the cabinet of the leaders of the Taiwan authorities, the new governing team, "unification, independence" force contrast, the island people's perception of "one country, two systems" changes as well as the next period of Taiwan's economic trends and other factors, the development of change, will be a comprehensive decision on cross-strait political relations and the direction of development of economic relations. The development direction of cross-strait political and economic relations will be determined by a combination of these factors. Therefore, the development of cross-strait trade in the coming period will be full of uncertainties. Based on the current policy orientation of the Taiwan authorities, it can be expected that cross-strait trade relations will maintain their current status in the near future, but cross-strait trade will still maintain a certain level of growth.
Since Taiwan's economy continues to be in the doldrums, the Taiwan authorities, forced by the need to govern and the pressure of elections, will moderately liberalize the investment of Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland in order to rely on the economic development of the mainland to drive Taiwan out of the recession, and there may be a slight loosening of the imports from the mainland. This will lead to a certain increase in the total volume of cross-strait trade. In particular, Taiwan's exports to the Mainland will continue to grow. Although there is more room for development for mainland exports to Taiwan, they will still be subject to Taiwan's restrictive policies, and we cannot rule out the possibility that the Taiwan authorities will "legalize" the restrictions on the mainland with the help of the relevant provisions of the WTO. Therefore, it is difficult to make a big change in the situation of structural imbalance of cross-strait trade in the near future. However, it should be seen that, under the impetus of economic globalization, driven by economic interests and the principle of market economy, the cross-strait division of labor in a variety of industries formed in the process of promoting the integration of cross-strait economy, cross-strait trade will ultimately break through the interference of political factors, led by the market forces to achieve rapid growth.
3. 2001?2003 Cross-Strait Trade Forecast
Based on the trade data of the first 10 months of 2001, the monthly cross-strait trade data of November and December 2001 can be obtained through two index smoothing, and the result is that the cross-strait trade in 2001 totaled about 32.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 5.76% over the previous year. Among them, the mainland's exports to Taiwan amounted to 4.9 billion U.S. dollars, down 2.6 percent from the previous year, while the mainland's imports from Taiwan amounted to 27.4 billion U.S. dollars, up 7.4 percent from the previous year.
The apparent recession in cross-strait trade shows that both the mainland and Taiwan's economic and trade situations have been affected by the global economic slowdown. Terrorist attacks have created further significant headwinds to already malfunctioning global economic growth. What makes the situation unusually precarious is that for the first time since 1982, there is a simultaneous economic downturn in the United States, Europe and Japan. The result will be that the growth rate of world trade in 2001 will fall close to its lowest point since the oil crisis of the 1970s. The world economic and trade situation has had a direct impact on the decrease in cross-strait trade. As Taiwan's economic development has a very high dependence on foreign trade, it determines that Taiwan's economy is subject to the influence and constraints of the external environment. 2001, due to the impact of the continuing global economic downturn, coupled with the impact of the September 11th terrorist attacks in the United States, Taiwan's "Office of the Controller of the Executive Yuan" has recently lowered its trade volume once again. "Recently, the Office of the Comptroller of the Executive Yuan again lowered its forecast for Taiwan's economy, predicting that it would be difficult for Taiwan's economy to break out of recession in the fourth quarter, with a negative growth rate of 2.68%, and a negative growth rate of 2.12% for the whole year. 2002 will see a gradual stabilization of the international economy from the bottom of the barrel to a stabilization of the international economy, coupled with the accession of both sides of the Taiwan Strait to the WTO, and the increase in economic and trade exchanges, and the steady expansion of foreign trade. The organization expects that Taiwan's economy as a whole is expected to improve in 2002 compared to 2001, with an estimated economic growth rate of 2.23 percent.
The forecasts of cross-strait trade for 2002 and 2003 are based on 2001 data, and are realized by selecting variables that are relevant and building a multiple regression analysis model. When building the regression model for the Mainland's exports to Taiwan, comparisons and screenings were made in consideration of the fact that the Mainland's GDP, Taiwan's GDP, the world economy, the U.S. economy, and the world trade are all correlated with it. Since the world economic situation in 2001 was very special, the variables of the GDP of the Mainland, the GDP of Taiwan, and the world trade were chosen to represent the impacts of the aggregate domestic supply, the local demand of Taiwan, and the changes in the international trade situation on it; in building the regression model of the Mainland's imports from Taiwan, the GDP of the Mainland, the GDP of Taiwan, and the investment of Taiwanese businessmen in the Mainland were chosen as variables to explain the Mainland economy, respectively, Taiwan's economy and Taiwan businessmen's investment in the Mainland to explain the pull and impact of the Mainland's imports from Taiwan, respectively.
Based on the model and the forecasts of various authoritative organizations on the future world economic situation, if there is no major adverse change in the world economic and trade situation and the mainland economy continues to maintain a stable and healthy development trend, the cross-strait trade volume in 2002 and 2003 will reach US$35.7 billion and US$39.4 billion, representing an increase of 10.6% and 10.4% over the previous year respectively.
4. Possible trends in the next few years
(1) Cross-Strait trade will expand further
Since 2002 is the first year of cross-Strait accession to the WTO, cross-Strait trade is likely to expand further on the basis of the projections, especially imports from Taiwan by the mainland are likely to increase significantly. After joining the WTO, according to the WTO principles, Taiwan is bound to relax its restrictions on the import and investment of mainland products, which will have a great boost to cross-strait trade, and the mainland's exports to Taiwan will gradually rise; joining the WTO, the cross-strait market will be further opened up, and from the mainland side, the reduction of tariffs and other market-opening measures will undoubtedly play a great role in boosting the growth of imports. From the Taiwan side, after joining the WTO, the further opening of trade, will inevitably lead to accelerate the adjustment of Taiwan's industrial structure, Taiwan's relatively uncompetitive industries are expected to gradually move out of the country, which to a certain extent, will also be on the mainland from the growth of Taiwan's imports caused by the momentum of the momentum of the push.
(2) cross-strait trade deficit is expected to be improved
Taiwan has imposed a variety of restrictions on the mainland, making cross-strait trade deficit situation. With the gradual elimination of Taiwan's import restrictions on the mainland after its accession to the WTO, exports of raw materials, agricultural and mining resources, and low-priced semi-finished products or components from the mainland to Taiwan are expected to rise sharply. At the same time, the mainland's competitiveness in the textile and information industry is growing, the mainland products into the opportunities for Taiwan greatly increased, the cross-strait trade imbalance is likely to be improved.
(3) Cross-Strait Regional Economic Integration to Accelerate
With the development of economic globalization and regionalization, international competition in the 21st century will be launched in conjunction with regional advantages, and no country or region will be able to gain an advantage in the international economic arena by fighting alone. The vigorous development of cross-strait economic and trade relations over the past decade or so has already enabled cross-strait economic regional integration of a certain scale and brought great benefits to Taiwan's economic transformation and upgrading. With the successive return of Hong Kong and Macao to the motherland, the economic ties among the four places on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have become closer, and the intermediary role of Hong Kong and Macao in cross-strait exchanges has become even more important. the 21st century will be the century of accelerated cross-strait economic integration, and cross-strait industrial division of labor and cooperation will be carried out in a wider range of areas and industries, and the modes of division of labor and cooperation will be more diversified, and the original "vertical division of labor" will also be the main form of cooperation. The original pattern of "vertical division of labor" will be changed to a combination of "vertical division of labor" and "horizontal division of labor".
(4) Triggering cross-strait industrial restructuring
With the increase in value-addedness of the mainland's exports, the global share of light industrial products has increased dramatically, and at the same time, the global market share of capital-intensive industrial products, such as chemicals, rubber, plastics, papermaking, iron and steel, and non-metallic products, etc., has increased, leading to a greater demand for Taiwan's related parts and components. The diversification of Taiwan's investment industries in the Mainland and the improvement of technological levels have led to the export of Taiwan's goods to the Mainland, mainly focusing on machinery, electrical equipment and its parts, plastics, chemical fiber processing raw materials and other technology- and capital-intensive products. In addition, after Taiwan's accession to the WTO, increased demand for imports to the mainland, a number of industries and manufacturers will be a greater impact, such as textiles, petrochemicals, iron and steel, electronic parts industry, machinery, heavy mechanical and electrical equipment, communications, lighting equipment and television, laser disc players, radios, stereos, computers, air-conditioning, refrigerators, washing machines and other home appliances or consumer electronics products.
The accession of both sides of the Taiwan Strait to the WTO will undoubtedly expand more trade and investment opportunities for both sides. In addition to boosting the willingness of Taiwanese businessmen to invest in the mainland, it is more likely to lead to the promotion of direct trade. In particular, if multinational enterprises actively invest in the mainland market, it will prompt multinational enterprises investing in Taiwan to request direct economic and trade exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. On the other hand, the closer economic and trade relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are expected to bring more disputes, whether it is the issue of counterfeiting or dumping, and both sides need to think of strategies to deal with it as soon as possible. Therefore, the revision of relevant laws and regulations by the governments of both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the establishment of relevant security and defense systems are the key factors for the smooth expansion of trade between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait as well as between China and other member states.