Among them, Aimer is "more profitable than Maotai hyaluronic acid king", Yue carve to create a "three-year 300 billion e-cigarette empire", the times angel is becoming "revenue 10 times the invisible braces The first shares of the new oxygen is "the representative enterprise of the face value economy", each enterprise is full of gimmicks.
However, recently, with the new regulation of e-cigarettes and the capital market returning to rationality, as well as the release of the company's financial results revealed their own lack of growth and many other factors, the market value of the "new profiteering four" suffered a sharp decline.
Just released the financial results of the fog core technology, 2020 Q4 revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, quarterly revenue growth of 44.5% of the eye-catching results, but also only let the stock price rose slightly by 2%, and did not pull back 5 days ago fell to 47%. Counting the love of beauty and new oxygen, the market value of the three have suffered a cut in 2021, and even fog core technology and love beauty of the market value of the highest point from the plunge of nearly 100 billion.
After squeezing away the bubble, the four Jie can still tell the myth of getting rich?
In the stock market market most investors favorite two sectors, one is consumer, one is medical, enduring. The reason for this is that where these two industries are concerned often means that there is a valuation and ROE beyond other industries.
According to the March 26th share price statistics, the total market capitalization of Amica 85 billion yuan, the price-earnings of 193, and just before January, on February 18th, Amica's share price touched the highest of 1,331 yuan, the market capitalization of close to 160 billion yuan, the PE (price-earnings ratio) had reached a maximum of 336 The highest PE (price-earnings ratio) was 336 times. At present, the fog core technology total market capitalization of 14.2 billion U.S. dollars, P/E 1955; the new oxygen total market value of 1 billion U.S. dollars, P/E 1,177.
This is placed in any market, are staggering valuation. And behind the bubble-like P/E ratios given by the capital market, it also stems from the extremely bullish sentiment towards the new consumer sector where the four companies are located.
More and more research and data are proving to us that we are indeed living in a value society. Economists Daniel Hamermesh and Jeff Biddle have an interesting study that shows that a person with below-average looks earns 9% less per hour, while someone with above-average looks earns 5% more per hour.
This is an era of beauty, appearance anxiety has become a lot of people's worries, and whether it is medical beauty, plastic surgery or e-cigarettes, they are effectively hit the human nature inherent "addiction", there will be consumer services to meet the needs of users.
In such a demand for the rise of enterprises, love beauty is hyaluronic acid leading enterprises, corresponding to the demand for skin care, the times angel is the domestic invisible braces of the pioneer, and the new oxygen is to build a medical beauty health platform, linking the medical beauty institutions and consumers, they are accurate into the medical beauty of the big road in the small branch. The newest addition to the list is a new consumer iteration, where traditional tobacco hasn't been revolutionized in nearly a century, and young people need a new way to play it cool.
The four companies that have taken the lead in these new consumer segments have also nailed the pricing advantage and achieved their own profiteering stories. According to the latest financial data, love beauty, time angel, new oxygen and Yue carved gross profit were, respectively, 92.17%, 70.8%, 85%, 42.5%, while the stock market "hard currency" of Guizhou Maotai, gross profit margins are only 91.3%, love beauty of gross profit margins reached a maximum of 98%.
At present, each family has also basically done in the profitable track to occupy the position of the king. According to the Times Angel prospectus, the Times Angel's market share of 41.3%, ranked first; Yue carve reached 62%, swallowed the vast majority of the market share; love beauty in the sodium hyaluronate class of injectable products in the domestic market share has reached 14.0%, sitting in the domestic hyaluronic acid first; new oxygen since 2017, the market share has reached 70%, and in recent years there is no rival player.
The process of creating myths can never be separated from the people who create them.
Some of them have been in the business layout for more than ten years. Among them, Times Angel was founded in 2003, and the founders are Yan Yongnian, a professor at the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Tsinghua University (known as China's "father of 3D printing"), and Wang Bangkang, dean of the School of Stomatology at the Capital Medical University. The Angel of the Times was born with the aura of "domestic Invisalign" running wild.
There are also emerging players, the founder of Yuecheng, Wang Ying, was a Youbu executive, and the team is also from the Internet factory, cross-border e-cigarettes. Yue car also developed a "361 plan", within three years through the subsidy of 600 million to open 10,000 stores. Counting from the establishment in January 2018, to March 2020, the stores have nearly 10,000, more than two years to create nearly 4,000 stores Ruixing more fast and crazy.
Warren Buffett once said, "Investing is like rolling a snowball, the most important thing is to find very wet snow and very long slopes." A very long slope refers to the industry and the track, while very wet snow refers to the company at the top of the industry tower. So, are the crazy-running Amicus, Times Angel, Yuekue and New Oxygen such perfect investment targets?
Behind the high gross margins, are the "New Profit Four" a veritable money printing machine?
In terms of return on capital, the speed to market and market capitalization performance of the "New Profit Four" is undoubtedly a successful investment target for investment institutions. The new oxygen with 2.764 billion yuan of financing back to 1 billion U.S. dollars market value, fog core technology with 9.5 billion yuan of financing back to the highest 40 billion U.S. dollars market value, love beauty is 3.57 billion yuan of yuan back to the highest 160 billion yuan of market value, the era of angels only 149 million yuan of financing to be listed.
But from the companies themselves, confined to the product, the level of technology, and high marketing costs to support the development, is also eating into the real profitability of each.
Smoke Core Technology The reason is not only the impact of the ban on online sales of e-cigarettes in 2019. Compared to the upstream of the industrial chain, Smore International, Fog Core Technology's revenue source is too single, mainly for smoking guns and cartridges, and Smore International also has a large number of To B electronic atomization equipment business; this also leads to the net interest rate from the point of view of the Fog Core Technology is 20%, and Smore International's net interest rate is close to 30% in a number of reporting periods.
It should be said that the real earning power of fog core technology, compared with the head of the enterprise there is a gap. Single product, which is also related to the fog core technology previously too low R & D expenses, only 1.5% of revenue in 2019, 7.8% in 2020, although there is growth is only a low level of maintenance.
Unlike Misty Core's low R&D expenses, New Oxygen's R&D expenses, while reaching over 10%, have also been actively scaled back recently, with New Oxygen's Q4 2020 expense ratio at 16.7%, lower than the first three quarters of 2020.
Instead of working on R&D, the companies are throwing money at marketing and sales expenses. Promotional expenses are high, but also "new profiteering four" in the high gross profit behind, can not realize the core reason for high net profit.
2020 fiscal year fog core technology sales costs compared to the previous year's 360 million yuan, an increase of 23.3% to 440 million yuan. And the big expansion of offline, although it led to a significant reduction in its online marketing costs, but the heavy asset investment in opening stores, but also makes the debt ratio of the fog core technology remains high.
New Oxygen is also increasing investment to ensure user growth, last year's marketing expenses rose 54.5% year-on-year, mainly in branding and marketing activities. 2020 New Oxygen's four-quarter sales and marketing expense ratio averaged more than 50%, in short, "advertising" ate up most of the company's profits.
This is the first time that a company has been able to get a branding campaign.
And Times Angel, which is about to go public, is also struggling with marketing. The prospectus shows that in 2018, 2019 and the first three quarters of 2020, Times Angels sales and marketing expenditures (expenses) were $81 million, $123 million, $91 million, accounting for 16.7%, 19.0%, 15.2% of total revenue.
"New profiteering four masters", for the moment, only Aimek called a veritable money-printing machine, 2020 revenue of 709 million yuan, net profit reached 440 million yuan, net profit margin of 62%.
P/E ratio remains high "new profiteering four", when will the bubble burst?
The sudden change in policy has taken the lead in breaking the myth of the high market value of fog core technology, and has opened the curtain for the market to re-examine the share price of the "new profiteering four".
Following the 2019 online can not sell e-cigarettes, March 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology news, proposed to e-cigarettes and other new tobacco products with reference to the regulation of cigarettes, the day of the fog core technology stock price that is to crash, plummeted by 47.84%. March 22, the fog core technology in the three trading days of the stock price decapitation, the market value of evaporation of more than one hundred billion yuan, the decline rate of let a person shocked out of the jaw.
Changes in stock prices, reacting to the market's concern about the development prospects of fog core technology. Although analysts predicted that the policy is completely banned or completely franchised monopoly is less likely, but it will also let the fog core technology large-scale offline investment faces uncertainty return. And it is expected that the follow-up will land on e-cigarettes tax rules, e-cigarettes will be from the original only pay 17% of the value-added tax, increased to 56% of the tobacco tax, the future of the fog core technology is facing an unpredictable situation.
Recently, another share price of the enterprise is the love of the American American. March 25, by the financial director Zhao Shuanghong left and the company's large-scale dividends and other negative factors. Aimee customer shares from the previous high point of 700 yuan fell to 370 yuan, Aimee customer with the stock price staged a roller coaster scene, the market value also evaporated 79.2 billion yuan.
Recently released financial results of the new oxygen, the market value of the same did not escape the fate of the near decapitation. 2020 annual total revenue increased by 12.4% year-on-year; but marketing, research and development, and management of the three expenses year-on-year increase in the new oxygen last year's net profit appeared year-on-year 97.24% of the sharp decline.
Following the earnings report, New Oxygen shares fell 16.79% to $10.01. The market cap also shrank to $1.069 billion from the Feb. 17, 2021 high of $1.862 billion for the stock.
Times Angels, which just filed a prospectus and hasn't yet gone public, is also expected to be dominated by market panic and won't be able to enjoy the high valuation dividends that the other three had. After all, the U.S. stock dentist unicorn SDC, also had a listing that is broken.
"New profiteering four" bubble have burst, largely because the capital market no longer believe that there is no technology and brand core barriers to new consumer products and services, its very high gross margins and market share can always be maintained. For example, along with Huaxi biological and other rivals rivals more and more powerful, love beauty customer cost only twenty or thirty dollars of hyaluronic acid, can not always sell 2000 to 3000 yuan. Similarly, the Times Angel and Invisalign staggered competition, as well as invisible braces with technological advances, the price of the future will drop to less than 10,000 yuan, high gross margins will not be maintained for a long time.
What's more, after a few years of blindfolded frenzy, the user growth of several companies has reached a bottleneck. According to the new oxygen white paper data, the new oxygen platform customer acquisition cost as high as 400 yuan / person, in order to maintain the ordinary user and paid user growth, the new oxygen also need a longer period of high marketing investment.
"New profiteering four masters" of the high light moment has passed, once the demon stock is also facing the return of value, four masters of the future story need to rewrite their own.
Wen | Yang Xiaohu Qiao Xue Tech Planet